Category: 2026 Week 1

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 9:00 PM CT
Location: Hornet Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): SAC -35.5
Over/under: 56.5

The setup

Sacramento State is one of the two newest FBS programs, but this is its first game against a lower-division team since a 77-19 win in 2019. The new kid at the FBS table gets to play the heavyweight for one night.

What I’m watching

The thing to watch is how quickly Sacramento St’s rebuilt offense settles in. Sacramento St averaged 33.8 points per game last season and returns one offensive starter. Miss Valley St allowed 52.8 points per game.

Personnel snapshot

• Mississippi Valley State: Terrell Buckley enters Year 2 as head coach.
• Mississippi Valley State quarterback: Joshua Brown is Mississippi Valley State’s most experienced returning passer. He had no meaningful passing sample in 2025.
• Sacramento St: Alonzo Carter enters Year 1 as head coach. 4 starters return—1 on offense and 3 on defense.
• Sacramento St quarterback: Carson Conklin is projected to start for Sacramento St. Last season at Fresno St, he threw for 354 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The scoring trend: The Hornets have won four straight home openers while averaging 43.3 points. Mississippi Valley State trailed 37-0 at halftime in its Week 0 loss, so Sacramento State’s favorite calendar spot meets the Delta Devils’ worst recent half.
• The turnover test: Mississippi Valley State’s only Week 0 touchdown was a 95-yard pick-six, while Sacramento State scored on a fumble return in its opener. Both teams already showed that the defense may be the fastest route to points.
• A first real test at quarterback: Joshua Brown is Miss Valley St’s most experienced returning passer. He enters Week 1 without a meaningful 2025 passing sample. Sacramento St finished last season with 38 sacks. Miss Valley St returns no listed starting offensive linemen, making protection the immediate question.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:45 PM CT
Location: H. A. Chapman Stadium
TV: ESPNU
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): OKST -14
Over/under: 60.5

The setup

Tulsa and Oklahoma State are only about 72 miles apart, and meeting No. 78 comes with fresh scar tissue: Tulsa’s 19-12 win last year ended a 10-game Cowboys streak and was the Golden Hurricane’s first series win since 1998.

Personnel snapshot

• Oklahoma State: Eric Morris enters Year 1 as head coach. 4 starters return—1 on offense and 3 on defense. Key defenders back include Landon Dean, Iman Oates, and LaDainian Fields. Oklahoma State’s defense allowed 418.3 yards and 33.5 points per game last season.
• Oklahoma State quarterback: Drew Mestemaker is the new starter for Oklahoma State. Last season at North Texas, he threw for 4,129 yards, 31 TD and 7 INT and was one of the stories of college football.
• Tulsa: Tre Lamb enters Year 2 as head coach. 8 starters return—2 on offense and 6 on defense. Key defenders back include Tai Newhouse, William Alexander, and JD Drew. Tulsa’s defense allowed 396.7 yards and 28.9 points per game last season.
• Tulsa quarterback: Baylor Hayes returns as Tulsa’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,158 yards, 12 TD and 6 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The recent trend: Tulsa is 21-17-2 against Oklahoma State in Tulsa, but the Cowboys have won four straight visits. The long history favors the home city; the recent history favors the orange visitors.
• The opener trend: Oklahoma State has won 11 straight season openers, the fourth-longest active FBS streak. Tulsa is trying to stack consecutive rivalry wins while ending a streak that began in 2015.
• The turnover test: Baylor Hayes set Tulsa freshman records with 2,158 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, 2,346 total yards and six 200-yard games. One of those was a 219-yard, no-interception win at Oklahoma State, so the rematch quarterback already owns the blueprint.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 6:00 PM CT
Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): MEM -9.5
Over/under: 53.5

The setup

This is meeting No. 63 in Arkansas State’s most-played series. Memphis leads 33-24-5, has won five straight and took the last one 37-3, so the Red Wolves are trying to revive a rivalry that recently became one-sided.

Personnel snapshot

• Arkansas State: Butch Jones enters Year 6 as head coach. 10 starters return—7 on offense and 3 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Mason Myers, Wil Saxton, and Tristian Smith. Arkansas State’s offense averaged 382.7 yards and 25.2 points per game last season.
• Arkansas State quarterback: Trey Owens is projected to start for Arkansas State. He had no meaningful passing sample in 2025.
• Memphis: Charles Huff continues Year 1 as head coach. 1 starter returns—1 on offense and 0 on defense. A key offensive lineman back is Parker Mitchell. Memphis’ offense averaged 411.6 yards and 32.5 points per game last season.
• Memphis quarterback: Marcus Stokes started Memphis’ Week 0 win over UNLV and completed 15 of 26 passes for 223 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.

Three quick analysis points

• The schedule twist: Arkansas State is opening on the road for the 22nd time as an FBS program, and its only road-opening win was 18-14 at Texas A&M in 2008. Memphis is daring the Red Wolves to repeat a trick they have pulled once in 21 tries.
• The opener trend: Memphis has won 12 straight home openers and owns 67 home wins since 2014, tied for fifth nationally. Arkansas State’s road-opener history meets one of the country’s most reliable home calendars.
• A first real test at quarterback: Memphis has named Marcus Stokes the starter. He completed 15 of 26 passes for 223 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in the Week 0 win over UNLV. Arkansas St returns 3 defensive starters and ranked No. 6 in FBS sacks per game (3.00), finishing with 39. Memphis returns only one starting offensive lineman, raising the degree of difficulty.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 6:00 PM CT
Location: FirstBank Stadium
TV: SECN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): VAN -30.5
Over/under: 61.5

The setup

Vanderbilt has won both meetings with Austin Peay by a combined 85-10. The Governors are trying to turn a series that has averaged 42.5-5 into an actual fourth-quarter game.

What I’m watching

The question is how long Austin Peay can keep this from becoming a depth game. Vanderbilt averaged 38.5 points per game last season and returns 5 offensive starters. Austin Peay allowed 27.3 points per game. A couple of first-half stops would matter much more than matching Vanderbilt play for play.

Personnel snapshot

• Austin Peay: Jeff Faris enters Year 3 as head coach.
• Austin Peay quarterback: Chris Parson is Austin Peay’s most experienced returning passer. Last season, he threw for 3,003 yards, 23 TD and 5 INT.
• Vanderbilt: Clark Lea enters Year 6 as head coach. 10 starters return—5 on offense and 5 on defense. Key defenders back include Glenn Seabrooks III, Miles Capers, and Bryan Longwell. That defense allowed 357.5 yards and 22.8 points per game last season.
• Vanderbilt quarterback: Vanderbilt lists Blaze Berlowitz first on its official Week 1 depth chart. Last season, he threw for 131 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. He gets the fun job of replacing Vanderbilt legend Diego Pavia.

Three quick analysis points

• The opener trend: Vanderbilt’s 10 wins and six SEC wins in 2025 were both program firsts. Austin Peay is opening against a team whose new standard is literally unprecedented in school history.
• The location wrinkle: The Commodores have won seven straight at FirstBank Stadium and four straight home openers. Austin Peay’s upset route has to break two Vanderbilt streaks on the same night.
• The quarterback angle: Austin Peay already owns a 35-17 Week 0 win, with Chris Parson throwing for 308 yards and adding 31 on the ground. Vanderbilt is making its debut against a quarterback who has already produced 339 yards in a real 2026 game.

How the game is decided

There’s a reason Vanderbilt is such huge favorites, but lets see how they ease into their new offensive era with a do-it-all QB like Pavia running the show.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 6:00 PM CT
Location: AmFirst Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): JXST -19.5
Over/under: 54.5

The setup

Both teams are 0-1, but their Week 0 problems were opposites: Eastern Kentucky gained 508 yards and allowed 45 points, while Jacksonville State allowed 373 but produced only 170. One needs stops; the other needs offense.

What I’m watching

The thing to watch is how quickly Jax State’s rebuilt offense settles in. Jax State averaged 28.1 points per game last season and returns 3 offensive starters. E Kentucky allowed 24.3 points per game. E Kentucky does not need to match the home team’s depth; it needs to force a few early punts and keep the number of possessions down.

Personnel snapshot

• Eastern Kentucky: Walt Wells enters Year 7 as head coach.
• Eastern Kentucky quarterback: Tyler Travers made his first collegiate start in Week 0 and completed 22 of 34 passes for 305 yards, three touchdowns and one interception.
• Jacksonville State: Charles Kelly enters Year 2 as head coach. 8 starters return—3 on offense and 5 on defense. The Gamecocks defense allowed 378.8 yards and 27.6 points per game last season.
• Jacksonville State quarterback: Caden Creel returns as Jacksonville State’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 1,341 yards, 8 TD and 4 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The turnover test: Jacksonville State has forced a takeaway in 18 straight games, the longest active FBS streak. Eastern Kentucky lost two turnovers in its opener, so the Gamecocks’ most dependable habit is aimed directly at the Colonels’ first-game leak.
• The quarterback angle: Eastern Kentucky’s Tyler Travers threw for 305 yards, three touchdowns and 9.0 yards per attempt in his first start; Jacksonville State managed 85 passing yards, no touchdowns and 3.7 per attempt. The quarterback tape enters this game 220 yards apart.
• The recent trend: North Dakota State outrushed Jacksonville State 209-85 and held the ball 12:14 longer, while Eastern Kentucky ran for only 65 yards in its opener. Whichever team repairs the ground game first can keep the other’s best passer watching from the sideline.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 9:00 PM CT
Location: University Stadium (NM)
TV: FS1
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): UNM -10.5
Over/under: 46.5

The setup

Central Michigan and New Mexico have never played, but their second-year coaches both reached bowls in their first FBS seasons and combined to go 16-10. This is a first meeting between two rebuilds that arrived ahead of schedule.

What I’m watching

The biggest test is whether C Michigan can move the ball without living in third-and-long. Last year, their offense ranked No. 95 nationally at 5.5 yards each time it snapped the ball; New Mexico’s defense ranked No. 49 and allowed only 5.8. 6 starters from the offense and 6 from the defense return.

Personnel snapshot

• Central Michigan: Matt Drinkall enters Year 2 as head coach. 8 starters return—6 on offense and 2 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Martin Koivisto, Matthew Nehf, and Jacob Russell. That offense averaged 330.5 yards and 22.5 points per game last season.
• Central Michigan quarterback: Central Michigan named Angel Flores its starter in its official Week 1 notes. Last season, he rushed for 527 yards and eight touchdowns while throwing for 195 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
• New Mexico: Jason Eck enters Year 2 as head coach. 14 starters return—8 on offense and 6 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Malik Aliane, Tyler Lawrence, and Kaden Robnett. The Lobos offense averaged 356.8 yards and 27.1 points per game last season.
• New Mexico quarterback: New Mexico’s official Week 1 depth chart lists James Laubstein, Luke Moga and Toa Fa’avae with an OR designation; it does not name one starter.

Three quick analysis points

• The quarterback angle: New Mexico will start a different opening-day quarterback for the 12th straight season, the longest active streak in the FBS, after last year’s starter needed season-ending elbow surgery. The official depth chart still lists James Laubstein, Luke Moga and Toa Fa’avae as an OR, so Central Michigan is preparing for three different styles instead of one known passer.
• The scoring trend: Central Michigan named Angel Flores its starter after he rushed for 527 yards and eight touchdowns but threw only 28 passes last season. His first Chippewas start turns the quarterback position into another running-back spot against the nation’s most improved 2025 run defense.
• The running-game test: Central Michigan ran on 68.1% of its plays and went 5-1 when it reached 150 rushing yards; New Mexico cut its run allowance from 212.92 to 112.77 yards per game, a 100.15-yard improvement that led the FBS. The Chippewas’ identity runs directly into the Lobos’ biggest transformation.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:00 PM CT
Location: Sanford Stadium
TV: SECN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): UGA -46.5
Over/under: 56.5

The setup

Georgia and Tennessee State have never met. The Bulldogs enter the blind date with 15 returning starters and only nine scholarship transfers, the fewest in the SEC. Obviously, Georgia as huge favorites, hopes to get plenty of guys on the field in this one as they prepare for a long SEC season.

What I’m watching

The question is how long Tennessee St can keep this from becoming a depth game. Georgia averaged 32.1 points per game last season and returns 6 offensive starters. Tennessee St allowed 26.6 points per game. A couple of first-half stops would matter much more than matching Georgia play for play.

Personnel snapshot

• Tennessee St: Reggie Barlow enters Year 2 as head coach.
• Tennessee St quarterback: Byron McNair is Tennessee St’s most experienced returning passer. Last season, he threw for 1,558 yards, 9 TD and 6 INT.
• Georgia: Kirby Smart enters Year 11 as head coach. 14 starters return—6 on offense and 8 on defense. Key defenders back include Jordan Hall, Xzavier McLeod, and Quintavius Johnson. That defense allowed 298.0 yards and 17.4 points per game last season.
• Georgia quarterback: Gunner Stockton returns as Georgia’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,658 yards, 24 TD and 5 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The running-game test: Georgia allowed only 81.5 rushing yards per game, fourth nationally. Tennessee State managed 89 rushing yards in its opener – almost exactly what the Bulldogs surrendered to an average opponent all season.
• The scoring trend: Kirby Smart’s Georgia teams are 84-3 when they score at least 30 points. Tennessee State allowed 26 in its opener, so the Tigers’ first mission is keeping the Bulldogs below their historical automatic-win line.
• The quarterback-versus-pass-rush test: Byron McNair is Tennessee St’s most experienced returning passer. Last year he threw for 1,558 yards, 9 TD and 6 INT; 2.5% of his throws were picked off. Georgia returns 8 defensive starters and ranked No. 93 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, so this was not an overwhelming pressure mismatch last year. Tennessee St returns no listed starting offensive linemen, making protection the immediate question.

How the game is decided

Tennessee St needs a short game: long possessions, no giveaways and one special-teams break. Georgia needs to stay patient, lean on its size and depth, and avoid the kind of early mistake that gives an underdog belief. If the home team controls the line, the depth gap will take over.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 12:00 PM CT
Location: Jack Trice Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): ISU -29.5
Over/under: 53.5

The setup

Iowa State lists 83 newcomers and Southeast Missouri a program-record 53. That is 136 new players around one matchup – enough for both sidelines to hold orientation.

What I’m watching

The thing to watch is how quickly Iowa State’s rebuilt offense settles in. Iowa State averaged 27.4 points per game last season and returns no offensive starters. SE Missouri allowed 29.9 points per game.

Personnel snapshot

• SE Missouri: Tom Matukewicz enters Year 13 as head coach.
• SE Missouri quarterback: Braylen Ragland is the most experienced quarterback on SE Missouri’s roster after transferring from Alabama St. He had no meaningful passing sample in 2025.
• Iowa State: Jimmy Rogers enters Year 1 as head coach. 0 starters return after Matt Campbell took a ton of former Cyclones with him to Penn State. The Iowa State defense allowed 356.5 yards and 20.2 points per game last season.
• Iowa State quarterback: Jaylen Raynor is projected to start for Iowa State. Last season at Arkansas St, he threw for 3,073 yards, 16 TD and 11 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The location wrinkle: New Cyclones quarterback Jaylen Raynor owns 36 career starts and an FBS-leading eight fourth-quarter game-winning drives among active passers. He has also started at Jack Trice Stadium in each of the last two seasons for Arkansas State.
• The running-game test: Iowa State has rushed for at least 150 yards in seven straight games, one of only four active FBS streaks that long. SEMO just held Indiana State to 58 rushing yards, so the underdog’s freshest strength meets the favorite’s longest-running habit.
• The schedule twist: SEMO is 1-29 against FBS opponents and has lost 24 straight in the matchup class. All 30 of those games were on the road – this upset chase has never received home-field training wheels.

How the game is decided

Iowa State needs to start fast — and try to put SEMO away — early. The last thing Rogers needs is a close game in the second half in his first game as head coach.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 12:00 PM CT
Location: Kroger Field
TV: SECN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): UK -23.5
Over/under: 62.5

The setup

Will Stein’s first game at Kentucky comes with Kentucky as the 23.5-point favorite. Meanwhile, Youngstown State is a top 10 FCS team and the Penguins have already played their opener, a 43-10 win over Mercyhurst.

What I’m watching

The thing to watch is how quickly Kentucky’s rebuilt offense settles in. Kentucky averaged 23.0 points per game last season and returns one offensive starter. Youngstown St allowed 30.5 points per game. Youngstown St does not need to match the home team’s depth; it needs to force a few early punts and keep the number of possessions down.

Personnel snapshot

• Youngstown St: Doug Phillips enters Year 7 as head coach.
• Youngstown St quarterback: Beau Brungard is Youngstown St’s most experienced returning passer. Last season, he threw for 3,230 yards, 26 TD and 3 INT.
• Kentucky: Will Stein enters Year 1 as head coach. 5 starters return—1 on offense and 4 on defense. Key defenders back include Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace, Sam Greene, and Ty Bryant. That defense allowed 374.2 yards and 26.4 points per game last season.
• Kentucky quarterback: Kenny Minchey is projected to start for Kentucky. Last season at Notre Dame, he threw for 196 yards, 0 TD and 0 INT.

How the game is decided

Kentucky’s first job is avoiding three-and-outs while the new offensive pieces settle in. Youngstown St must turn every early stop into field position or points; empty possessions will eventually let Kentucky’s team’s size and depth take over.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 12:00 PM CT
Location: Falcon Stadium
TV: MW+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): AF -30.5
Over/under: 58.5

The setup

Air Force is 29-0 all-time against FCS teams, with every game played at Falcon Stadium. Troy Calhoun personally owns 19 of those wins.

What I’m watching

The thing to watch is how quickly Air Force’s rebuilt offense settles in. Air Force averaged 39.3 points per game last season and returns 3 offensive starters.

Personnel snapshot

• Duquesne: Jerry Schmitt enters Year 22 as head coach.
• Duquesne quarterback: Tyler Riddell is Duquesne’s most experienced returning passer. Last season, he threw for 2,016 yards, 25 TD and 7 INT.
• Air Force: Troy Calhoun enters Year 20 as head coach. 11 starters return—3 on offense and 8 on defense. Key defenders back include Dallas Daley, Blake Fletcher, and Isaac Hubert. The Falcons defense allowed 423.2 yards and 30.3 points per game last season.
• Air Force quarterback: Liam Szarka returns after rushing for over 900 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2025. He also completed 62.5% of his passes with 9 TDs and 5 INTs.

Two quick analysis points

• The opener trend: The Falcons have won 19 straight season openers, the third-longest active streak in the country, and 20 of their last 21 home openers. This calendar slot has become almost ceremonial.
• The roster reset: Air Force and Texas Tech are the only FBS programs that lost zero 2025 game participants to the transfer portal. At a time when continuity is rare, the Academy literally did not lose a snap.

How the game is decided

Can Dequesne slow the triple-option enough to keep it close for a while? You’d expect a well disciplined game from Air Force, but in week 1, it’s hard to be in sync.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.