Category: 2026 Week 1

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 4:00 PM CT
Location: M. M. Roberts Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): USM -21
Over/under: 50.5

The setup

Southern Miss is 11-0 against current SWAC teams and 4-0 against Alcorn State. The series is perfect, but one of those four wins was only 26-20 – history includes at least one fourth quarter.

What I’m watching

Alcorn St beat Miles College 56-7 in Week 0, with Jaylon Tolbert completing 25 of 28 for 265 yards, 5 TD and 0 INT. Alcorn St put 316 passing yards on film. Southern Miss allowed 229.2 passing yards per game last season, so the same approach gets a different test here.

Personnel snapshot

• The FBS roster is rebuilding too: Alcorn St’s Cedric Thomas is in Year 3; Southern Miss’s Blake Anderson is in Year 2. Southern Miss returns 1 starter—1 on offense and 0 on defense.
• Where points should be available: Alcorn St averaged 39.3 points per game last season; Southern Miss allowed 35.8. That gives the underdog a believable path: score early enough to make the favorite play with pressure.
• One familiar option, one unknown: Jaylon Tolbert led Alcorn St’s passing in Week 0 (25 of 28 for 265 yards, 5 TD and 0 INT); Ethan Hampton is the projected starter for Southern Miss (no meaningful 2025 passing sample). Jaylon Tolbert was already on Alcorn St’s roster last season; Ethan Hampton is new to Southern Miss and brings very little recent game experience.
• Availability: Southern Miss says defensive end Zachariah Keith is healthy and set to play his first game since 2022 after recovering from a neck injury and a spring 2026 partial pectoral tear.

Three quick analysis points

• The opener trend: Since the FCS split in 1978, Southern Miss is 9-0 when opening against an FCS opponent. Alcorn is trying to become the first Week 1 exception in 48 years.
• The recent trend: Alcorn already won 56-7 in Week 0. Southern Miss has live film on the underdog, but the underdog also arrives with the confidence of a 49-point runway.
• New quarterback, immediate test: Ethan Hampton transferred from Illinois and is expected to make his first start for Southern Miss. Last year he threw for 27 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT; 25.0% of his throws were picked off. Alcorn St finished last season with 17 sacks. Southern Miss returns no listed starting offensive linemen, making protection the immediate question.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 3:15 PM CT
Location: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
TV: SEC Network
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): ARK -40.5
Over/under: 63.5

The setup

North Alabama’s only previous SEC game was in 1959. Sixty-seven years later, its first SEC matchup as an FCS program is also the first meeting with Arkansas.

What I’m watching

North Alabama beat Samford 22-10 in Week 0, with Destin Wade completing 13 of 19 for 229 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. The Week 1 opponent changes the degree of difficulty, but 394 yards—229 passing and 165 rushing—gives us a real 2026 starting point instead of another projection.

Personnel snapshot

• A new staff with some carryover: North Alabama’s Brent Dearmon is in Year 4; Arkansas’s Ryan Silverfield is in Year 1. Arkansas returns 6 starters—4 on offense and 2 on defense.
• Where points should be available: Arkansas averaged 32.9 points per game last season; North Alabama allowed 40.5. If those identities survive the roster changes, this is where the favorite should create separation.
• The quarterback matchup: Destin Wade led North Alabama’s passing in Week 0 (13 of 19 for 229 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT); Arkansas’s competition remains open, with KJ Jackson the lead candidate (441 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in 2025). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• The opener trend: Arkansas is 104-24-4 in season openers, and new coach Ryan Silverfield is 5-1. One of Silverfield’s wins was a 40-0 result over this same North Alabama program at Memphis in 2024.
• The running-game test: North Alabama held Samford to minus-8 team rushing yards in Week 0. Arkansas averaged 7.15 yards per rush last year, best in the FBS – the opener’s most eye-popping stat meets the favorite’s biggest strength.
• The quarterback angle: KJ Jackson will be Arkansas’s first left-handed opening-day quarterback since Barry Lunney Jr. in 1995. He completed 61.1% with three touchdowns and no picks in his small 2025 sample.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Alamodome
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): UTSA -28.5
Over/under: 59.5

The setup

UTRGV did not merely win Week 0; it won 44-0, gained 675 yards and allowed 165. The 28.5-point underdog arrives with a 510-yard advantage already on 2026 tape.

What I’m watching

UT Rio Grande beat UT Permian Basin 44-0 in Week 0, with Garret Rangel and Aidan Jakobsohn combining to complete 22 of 31 for 391 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. UT Rio Grande already established the run, finishing with 277 rushing yards. UTSA allowed 149.6 rushing yards per game in 2025, which makes this a more meaningful follow-up test.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: UT Rio Grande’s Travis Bush is in Year 2; UTSA’s Jeff Traylor is in Year 7. UTSA returns 8 starters—6 on offense and 2 on defense.
• Where points should be available: UT Rio Grande averaged 39.4 points per game last season; UTSA allowed 31.3. That gives the underdog a believable path: score early enough to make the favorite play with pressure.
• The quarterback matchup: UT Rio Grande used Garret Rangel and Aidan Jakobsohn at quarterback in Week 0 (22 of 31 for 391 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT); Owen McCown returns as UTSA’s starter (2,700 yards, 27 TD and 7 INT in 2025). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• UT Rio Grande already cleared 500 yards: UT Rio Grande gained 681 yards in Week 0—404 passing and 277 rushing. That is a much more useful early clue than a preseason projection.
• The running-game test: UTRGV’s first game was balanced chaos: 404 passing yards and 271 rushing, with two 100-yard receivers. UTSA cannot solve the Vaqueros by taking away one player or one phase.
• The turnover test: Garret Rangel and Aidan Jakobsohn combined to complete 22 of 31 passes for 391 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Can they avoid the big mistakes against a FBS team that some believe could challenge for the Group of 6 College Football Playoff spot?

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Jerry Richardson Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): CLT -17.5
Over/under: 46.5

The setup

Charlotte is favored by 17.5. The Citadel already has a full 2026 game on film, creating an advantage in live reps but also giving the opponent real tape to study. Charlotte’s most recent win over a current power-conference program came in 2021 when it beat Duke.

What I’m watching

The Citadel lost 42-14 to Wofford in Week 0, with Quentin Hayes completing 12 of 20 for 88 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. The urgent issue is ball security after The Citadel gave it away 3 times. That has to improve before any comparison with Charlotte matters.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: The Citadel’s Maurice Drayton is in Year 4; Charlotte’s Tim Albin is in Year 2. Charlotte returns 7 starters—3 on offense and 4 on defense.
• The favorite’s run-game test: Charlotte averaged only 81.8 rushing yards per game last season. Against The Citadel, winning is expected; showing a more dependable run game would be the more useful result. The offense brings back 3 starters.
• The quarterback matchup: Quentin Hayes led The Citadel’s passing in Week 0 (12 of 20 for 88 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT); Conner Harrell is the projected starter for Charlotte (737 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT in 2025). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• A low-risk test for Charlotte’s run game: Charlotte averaged 3.36 yards per rush play, No. 136 nationally. The Citadel allowed 26.7 points per game at the FCS level last season. This is the right opener for Charlotte to show that weakness has been repaired; if it still cannot create easy offense, the concern carries into FBS play. Charlotte kept the same head coach and OC, with 3 offensive starters returning.
• The underdog’s opening against Charlotte: Charlotte’s defense created a disruptive play on 10.0% of snaps, No. 121 nationally. The Citadel scored 20.5 points per game at the FCS level last season. This is the one area The Citadel should test immediately. One successful early drive could turn a depth mismatch into a pressure game for a quarter or two. Charlotte changed its defensive leadership and returns 4 starters on that side, so last year’s number is a warning or opportunity—not a guarantee.
• The quarterback follow-up: Quentin Hayes handled 20 pass attempts for The Citadel in Week 0. He completed 12 of 20 for 88 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. Charlotte returns 4 defensive starters and ranked only No. 121 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, giving Quentin Hayes a chance to settle in. Week 0 identified who handled the passing game; this matchup is the first chance to see which parts of that performance carry over.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
TV: CBSSN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): NAVY -30.5
Over/under: 53.5

The setup

Navy and Towson have met once: a 41-13 Navy win in 2008. Shun White ran for a school-record 348 yards on only 19 carries, and the Mids finished with 558 – the sequel has a ridiculous rushing benchmark.

What I’m watching

Towson lost 21-18 to Maine in Week 0, with Andrew Indorf completing 15 of 21 for 267 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. The Week 1 opponent changes the degree of difficulty, but 379 yards—267 passing and 112 rushing—gives us a real 2026 starting point instead of another projection.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: Towson’s Pete Shinnick is in Year 4; Navy’s Brian Newberry is in Year 4. Navy returns 11 starters—5 on offense and 6 on defense.
• How quickly does the favorite take over: Navy averaged 31.9 points per game last season. Against Towson, the personnel test is whether that advantage shows up immediately or the favorite lets a heavy underdog hang around. The offense returns 5 starters.
• The quarterback matchup: Andrew Indorf led Towson’s passing in Week 0 (15 of 21 for 267 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT); Navy lists Braxton Woodson first on the Week 1 depth chart (25 career games and three starts; 760 rushing yards and 10 TD plus 516 passing yards and three TD). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• The recent trend: Navy is 21-5 over the last two seasons, the eighth-best winning percentage in the FBS and best outside the power conferences. This is not merely a quirky option team anymore; it has been one of the country’s most reliable winners.
• The roster reset: The twist is experience: Navy ranks 134th of 138 FBS teams in career snaps played. The recent results are veteran-level, while the 2026 roster is almost freshman-orientation young.
• The quarterback follow-up: Andrew Indorf handled 21 pass attempts for Towson in Week 0. He completed 15 of 21 for 267 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. Navy returns 6 defensive starters and ranked only No. 123 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, giving Andrew Indorf a chance to settle in.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Neyland Stadium
TV: SECN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): TENN -46.5
Over/under: 66.5

The setup

Tennessee and Furman have not played since 1942, an 84-year gap. The Vols won both old meetings, when the SEC itself was less than a decade old.

What I’m watching

Furman beat Anderson (SC) 20-3 in Week 0, with Jake Garcia completing 15 of 28 for 183 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. Furman already established the run, finishing with 268 rushing yards. Tennessee allowed 152.4 rushing yards per game in 2025, which makes this a more meaningful follow-up test.

Personnel snapshot

• A veteran FBS core: Furman’s Clay Hendrix is in Year 10; Tennessee’s Josh Heupel is in Year 6. Tennessee returns 13 starters—8 on offense and 5 on defense.
• Where points should be available: Tennessee averaged 39.8 points per game last season; Furman allowed 31.0. If those identities survive the roster changes, this is where the favorite should create separation.
• The pressure test: Jake Garcia led Furman’s passing in Week 0 (15 of 28 for 183 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT); Tennessee’s competition remains open, with George MacIntyre the lead candidate (no meaningful 2025 passing sample). The tougher first assignment belongs to Jake Garcia: Tennessee produced 37 sacks last season.

Three quick analysis points

• The opener trend: Josh Heupel is 8-0 in season openers with a 427-96 scoring margin. His five Tennessee openers are 260-58, and every one played at Neyland was won by at least 30.
• The location wrinkle: Neyland Stadium has sold out 28 straight games. Furman’s first trip into this series since World War II comes with more than 100,000 people and no empty-seat relief.
• The quarterback follow-up: Jake Garcia handled 28 pass attempts for Furman in Week 0. He completed 15 of 28 for 183 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. Tennessee returns 5 defensive starters and ranked No. 13 in FBS sacks per game (2.85), finishing with 37. Week 0 identified who handled the passing game; this matchup is the first chance to see which parts of that performance carry over against a SEC defense.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Kidd Brewer Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): APP -18.5
Over/under: 53.5

The setup

App State is favored by 18.5, but that is still close enough for an uneven opener to become a fourth-quarter game.

What I’m watching

Maine beat Towson 21-18 in Week 0, with Eddie Buehler completing 17 of 27 for 199 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. The Week 1 opponent changes the degree of difficulty, but 329 yards—199 passing and 130 rushing—gives us a real 2026 starting point instead of another projection.

Personnel snapshot

• The FBS roster is rebuilding too: Maine’s Jordan Stevens is in Year 5; App State’s Dowell Loggains is in Year 2. App State returns 4 starters—2 on offense and 2 on defense.
• The favorite’s run-game test: App State averaged only 127.6 rushing yards per game last season. Against Maine, winning is expected; showing a more dependable run game would be the more useful result. The offense brings back 2 starters.
• Familiarity versus a new offense: Eddie Buehler led Maine’s passing in Week 0 (17 of 27 for 199 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT); Malachi Singleton is the projected starter for App State (439 yards, 5 TD and 2 INT at Purdue in 2025).

Three quick analysis points

• Maine is already 1-0: Maine beat Towson 21-18 in its 2026 opener. Rashawn Marshall ran 13 times for 81 yards and 1 TD. The offense did not turn the ball over.
• The easiest path for App State’s offense: App State averaged 6.04 yards per pass play, No. 103 nationally. Maine allowed 24.1 points per game at the FCS level last season. That is the part of the offense App State can use to establish control before depth becomes the larger advantage. App State changed its offensive leadership and returns 2 starters on that side, so last year’s number is a warning or opportunity—not a guarantee.
• What Maine must solve: App State’s defense allowed 7.03 yards per pass play, No. 84 nationally. Maine scored 24.2 points per game at the FCS level last season. Maine needs to find one repeatable way to move the ball; isolated big plays will not be enough if most possessions end quickly. App State kept the same head coach and DC, with 2 defensive starters returning.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Fargodome
TV: MW+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): NDSU -39.5
Over/under: 57.5

The setup

This is the first NDSU-Fordham meeting, but the Bison are already 3-0 against Patriot League teams. Fordham is not testing a new conference blind spot; it is the fourth try at a matchup NDSU has never lost.

What I’m watching

Both teams have current film now. Fordham lost 24-14 to Colgate in Week 0, with Gunnar Smith completing 13 of 27 for 116 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. N Dakota St beat Jacksonville State 33-7 in Week 0, with Nathan Hayes completing 14 of 22 for 160 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. The clearest early pressure point is Fordham’s offense after it produced 189 yards; this game will show whether that Week 0 result was opponent-driven or a real warning.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: Fordham’s Joe Conlin is in Year 9; N Dakota St’s Tim Polasek is in Year 3. N Dakota St returns 8 starters—3 on offense and 5 on defense.
• Where points should be available: N Dakota St averaged 40.8 points per game last season; Fordham allowed 33.6. If those identities survive the roster changes, this is where the favorite should create separation.
• The pressure test: Gunnar Smith led Fordham’s passing in Week 0 (13 of 27 for 116 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT); Nathan Hayes led N Dakota St’s passing in Week 0 (14 of 22 for 160 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT). The tougher first assignment belongs to Gunnar Smith: N Dakota St produced 31 sacks last season.

Three quick analysis points

• The schedule twist: NDSU is 78-1 at home against FCS nonconference teams and 206-30 overall in the Fargodome since 1993. Fordham arrives on a 16-game road losing streak, so the venue trends point in opposite directions with almost comic force.
• The running-game test: Opening-week rushing numbers form a clean mismatch: NDSU gained 209 yards while Fordham allowed 275; Fordham gained 73 while NDSU allowed 85. Both sides of the ground-game ledger favor the Bison.
• The quarterback follow-up: Gunnar Smith handled 27 pass attempts for Fordham in Week 0. He completed 13 of 27 for 116 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. N Dakota St finished last season with 31 sacks. Week 0 identified who handled the passing game; this matchup is the first chance to see which parts of that performance carry over.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 6:30 PM CT
Location: Davis Wade Stadium
TV: ESPNU
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): MSST -28.5
Over/under: 56.5

The setup

Mississippi State leads ULM 4-1-1, but the one Warhawks win came in Starkville in 1995. The upset has already happened in this exact building – it is just 31 years old.

Personnel snapshot

• UL Monroe: Bryant Vincent enters Year 3 as head coach. 4 starters return—3 on offense and 1 on defense. UL Monroe’s offense averaged 323.5 yards and 16.6 points per game last season.
• UL Monroe quarterback: Aidan Armenta returns as UL Monroe’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 1,629 yards, 12 TD and 8 INT.
• Mississippi State: Jeff Lebby enters Year 3 as head coach. 8 starters return—2 on offense and 6 on defense. Key defenders back include Kalvin Dinkins, Zakari Tillman, and Kelley Jones. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 409.3 yards and 30.2 points per game last season.
• Mississippi State quarterback: Kamario Taylor is projected to start for Mississippi State. Last season, he threw for 388 yards, 4 TD and 1 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The roster reset: Mississippi State added 61 new players: 25 four-year transfers, six junior-college transfers and 30 freshmen.
• The matchup wrinkle: The Bulldogs will wear the interlocking MSU helmet mark for the first time since 2003. The visual throwback arrives with one of the least familiar rosters in the country.
• The quarterback angle: ULM quarterback Aidan Armenta completed 65.0% with 11 touchdowns from a clean pocket, but 25.5% with three picks under pressure. Mississippi State ranked only 134th in pass rush grade, making pressure the upgrade that can flip the entire quarterback profile.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 6:30 PM CT
Location: Michigan Stadium
TV: NBC
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): MICH -27.5
Over/under: 47.5

The setup

Michigan is 8-0 against Western Michigan and 37-1 against the MAC. The Broncos are trying to create both the first series loss and the second conference loss with one result.

Personnel snapshot

• Western Michigan: Lance Taylor enters Year 4 as head coach. 11 starters return—7 on offense and 4 on defense. Western Michigan’s offense averaged 342.7 yards and 24.9 points per game last season.
• Western Michigan quarterback: Broc Lowry returns as Western Michigan’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 1,683 yards, 7 TD and 2 INT.
• Michigan: Kyle Whittingham enters Year 1 as head coach. 10 starters return—7 on offense and 3 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Blake Frazier, Jake Guarnera, and Evan Link. Michigan’s offense averaged 396.9 yards and 27.5 points per game last season.
• Michigan quarterback: Bryce Underwood returns as Michigan’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,454 yards, 11 TD and 9 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The recent trend: Kyle Whittingham was 17-4 in openers at Utah, including 14-1 at home. His first Michigan game is new to Ann Arbor but lands in the calendar slot he mastered for two decades.
• The opener trend: Michigan is 11-1 in night games since 2023. Western Michigan won 10 games last year, so the favorite’s night streak is opening against a champion-sized résumé, not a generic MAC visitor.
• Pressure changed everything for Bryce Underwood: Bryce Underwood completed 43.4% of his passes under pressure last season at 5.6 yards per attempt, with 2 TD and 3 INT (3.9% of throws). From a clean pocket: 65.3%, 7.7 yards per attempt, 9 TD and 6 INT (2.3%). W Michigan’s pass rush ranked No. 11 in PFF’s 2025 FBS team grades. In plain terms: make him speed up, and the game changes.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.