Category: 2026 Week 1

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 9:00 PM CT
Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
TV: CW
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): UNLV -3
Over/under: 58.5

The setup

The Island Showdown Trophy game is being played for an 18th straight season, Hawai’i’s longest active run against one opponent. The full series is nearly a coin flip: Hawai’i leads 19-16 after 35 meetings.

What I’m watching

Both teams have current film now. UNLV lost 27-21 to Memphis in Week 0, with Jackson Arnold completing 25 of 37 for 291 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. Hawai’i lost 37-27 to Stanford in Week 0, with Micah Alejado completing 30 of 50 for 269 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. The clearest early pressure point is Hawai’i’s offense after it produced 322 yards; this game will show whether that Week 0 result was opponent-driven or a real warning.

Personnel snapshot

• Continuity is nearly even: UNLV’s Dan Mullen is in Year 2; Hawai’i’s Timmy Chang is in Year 5. The returning-starter totals are close—UNLV has 7 (3 offense, 4 defense), while Hawai’i has 7 (4 offense, 3 defense). Both teams kept their head coach and offensive coordinator, making last year’s styles more useful than they are in most openers.
• The protection problem: UNLV brings back two starting offensive linemen, led by Austin Boyd and Will Thomas. Hawai’i produced 31 sacks last season and returns 3 defensive starters, including Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina and Jamih Otis. Protection is the personnel battle most likely to change the game.
• The pressure test: Jackson Arnold led UNLV’s passing in Week 0 (25 of 37 for 291 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT); Micah Alejado led Hawai’i’s passing in Week 0 (30 of 50 for 269 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT). The tougher first assignment belongs to Jackson Arnold: Hawai’i produced 31 sacks last season.

Three quick analysis points

• Third down sank UNLV in Week 0: UNLV converted only 3 of 15 third downs in its opener (20%). That is the first problem it has to fix.
• The scoring trend: This rivalry has a serious home-field tax: the home team won 14 of the last 17 meetings, and Hawai’i is 13-4 against UNLV in Honolulu. The Warriors are also 8-1 in their last nine at Ching Complex, averaging 31.8 points.
• The roster reset: This is a Las Vegas high-school reunion wearing Hawai’i uniforms. Fifteen Warriors attended Bishop Gorman – the most players from one high school on any FBS roster – and all four Hawai’i captains are Bishop Gorman graduates from Las Vegas.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 9:00 PM CT
Location: Mountain America Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): ASU -41.5
Over/under: 52.5

The setup

This is Arizona State’s first game against an HBCU and its first FCS opponent from outside the Big Sky since Division I split in 1978. Morgan State is also walking into 26 straight ASU home-opener wins – the nation’s second-longest active streak – and 23 straight Opening Day wins in this stadium.

What I’m watching

Morgan St beat North Carolina A&T 17-7 in Week 0, with Cameron Edge completing 13 of 19 for 167 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. The Week 1 opponent changes the degree of difficulty, but 276 yards—167 passing and 109 rushing—gives us a real 2026 starting point instead of another projection.

Personnel snapshot

• The FBS roster is rebuilding too: Morgan St’s Damon Wilson is in Year 5; Arizona St’s Kenny Dillingham is in Year 4. Arizona St returns 3 starters—1 on offense and 2 on defense.
• The protection problem: Arizona St brings back one starting offensive lineman, led by Wade Helton. Morgan St produced 34 sacks last season.
• Familiarity versus a new offense: Cameron Edge led Morgan St’s passing in Week 0 (13 of 19 for 167 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT); Cutter Boley is the projected starter for Arizona St (2,160 yards, 15 TD and 12 INT at Kentucky in 2025).

Three quick analysis points

• The recent trend: Morgan State’s 17-7 Week 0 win was a master class in winning ugly: the Bears trailed through three quarters, had 12 first downs to North Carolina A&T’s 19, lost total yardage 328-276 and held the ball only 24:19. As a 41.5-point underdog, that survive-now-and-steal-it-late script is far more realistic than trading drives with ASU.
• The scoring trend: Morgan State’s 68-yard touchdown pass accounted for 41% of Cameron Edge’s 167 passing yards in the opener. Arizona State has allowed only 28 plays of 50-plus yards in 94 games since 2018, tied for fourth-fewest in the FBS versus an average of 51.3, so Morgan’s biggest Week 0 shortcut runs into ASU’s defining defensive strength.
• The quarterback follow-up: Cameron Edge handled 19 pass attempts for Morgan St in Week 0. He completed 13 of 19 for 167 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Arizona St returns 2 defensive starters and ranked No. 22 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, making pressure a proven strength.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 8:30 PM CT
Location: Snapdragon Stadium
TV: USA Net
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): SDSU -40.5
Over/under: 57.5

The setup

Portland State led No. 6 UC Davis 21-0 at halftime and outgained it 257-84, then lost 31-24 after a 31-3 second half. The Vikings already lived an entire season’s worth of mood swings in Week 0.

What I’m watching

Portland St lost 31-24 to UC Davis in Week 0, with Tyrese Smith completing 23 of 36 for 268 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. The Week 1 opponent changes the degree of difficulty, but 357 yards—268 passing and 89 rushing—gives us a real 2026 starting point instead of another projection.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: Portland St’s Chris Fisk is in Year 1; San Diego St’s Sean Lewis is in Year 3. San Diego St returns 10 starters—7 on offense and 3 on defense. San Diego St also kept its head coach and offensive coordinator, so its 2025 offensive habits should carry more weight in this matchup.
• The depth advantage has to show: San Diego St should have the deeper roster, but Portland St’s path is to force the new or lightly used starters into an uncomfortable first half. With 7 offensive starters back, San Diego St should be able to settle the game without exposing every new defensive piece.
• The pressure test: Tyrese Smith led Portland St’s passing in Week 0 (23 of 36 for 268 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT); Jayden Denegal returns as San Diego St’s starter (1,807 yards, 9 TD and 8 INT in 2025). The tougher first assignment belongs to Tyrese Smith: San Diego St produced 32 sacks last season.

Three quick analysis points

• The quarterback angle: Tyrese Smith produced 301 total yards in his first start: 268 passing, 33 rushing and two rushing touchdowns. San Diego State’s opener begins against a quarterback who already has a full game’s rhythm.
• The scoring trend: San Diego State allowed only 15.4 points and 293.7 yards per game last year, ranking top-six nationally in scoring defense, pass defense and red-zone defense. The catch: only two defensive starters return.
• The running-game test: Aztecs running back Lucky Sutton rushed for 1,297 yards, 13th nationally. Portland State allowed only 87 rushing yards to UC Davis, making the ground game a direct test of whether that Week 0 front is real.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 8:30 PM CT
Location: Casino Del Sol Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): ARIZ -31.5
Over/under: 56.5

The setup

Northern Arizona trailed Eastern Washington 24-3, then scored 24 unanswered points and won 34-27, snapping a 20-game losing streak when behind at halftime. Arizona cannot assume an early lead ends this game; NAU just erased its worst-case script one week ago.

What I’m watching

N Arizona beat Eastern Washington 34-27 in Week 0, with Ty Pennington completing 15 of 27 for 164 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. N Arizona already established the run, finishing with 201 rushing yards. Arizona allowed 143.2 rushing yards per game in 2025, which makes this a more meaningful follow-up test.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: N Arizona’s Brian Wright is in Year 3; Arizona’s Brent Brennan is in Year 3. Arizona returns 10 starters—6 on offense and 4 on defense.
• Where points should be available: Arizona averaged 31.5 points per game last season; N Arizona allowed 30.8. If those identities survive the roster changes, this is where the favorite should create separation.
• The quarterback matchup: Ty Pennington led N Arizona’s passing in Week 0 (15 of 27 for 164 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT); Noah Fifita returns as Arizona’s starter (2,963 yards, 26 TD and 5 INT in 2025). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• The youth movement: True freshman Lindsey Graves sparked that comeback with a 100-yard kickoff-return touchdown and now leads the FCS at 58.0 yards per return. For an FCS underdog, that is the cleanest possible shortcut around Arizona’s talent advantage: skip the offense and erase the whole field.
• The quarterback angle: Northern Arizona rushed for 201 yards in Week 0, with Quran Gossett gaining 103 and quarterback Ty Pennington adding 61. Arizona allowed 143.2 rushing yards per game last season, so NAU’s best way to protect itself from Noah Fifita is to keep moving the chains on the ground.
• The turnover test: Arizona finished first nationally in pass-efficiency defense, allowed 165.3 passing yards per game and intercepted 22 passes; Pennington threw for 164 yards with one interception in the opener. The single biggest mismatch is NAU’s ordinary passing debut against the Wildcats’ elite 2025 ball-hawking résumé.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 7:00 PM CT
Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): BYU -50.5
Over/under: 54.5

The setup

BYU is 20-0 against FCS opponents with an average score of 48.5-9.4. Utah Tech still owns the odd footnote: its 26 points in 2022 are the most BYU has ever allowed to an FCS team.

What I’m watching

Utah Tech lost 54-0 to Montana State in Week 0, with CJ Tiller and Bronson Barben combining to complete 19 of 33 for 169 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT. The early warning is only 227 total yards. BYU allowed 332.4 yards per game last season, so this is a useful chance to see whether the opener was a one-game problem.

Personnel snapshot

• A veteran FBS core: Utah Tech’s Lance Anderson is in Year 3; BYU’s Kalani Sitake is in Year 11. BYU returns 13 starters—5 on offense and 8 on defense.
• How quickly does the favorite take over: BYU averaged 33.4 points per game last season. Against Utah Tech, the personnel test is whether that advantage shows up immediately or the favorite lets a heavy underdog hang around. The offense returns 5 starters.
• The pressure test: Utah Tech used CJ Tiller and Bronson Barben at quarterback in Week 0 (19 of 33 for 169 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT); Bear Bachmeier returns as BYU’s starter (2,708 yards, 14 TD and 6 INT in 2025). The tougher first assignment belongs to CJ Tiller / Bronson Barben: BYU produced 30 sacks last season.

Three quick analysis points

• Utah Tech barely moved the ball in Week 0: Utah Tech finished its opener with only 227 total yards—169 passing and 58 rushing. That is the clearest early warning entering this matchup.
• The recent trend: Utah Tech opened with a 54-0 loss to No. 1 FCS Montana State. Its reward is a trip to No. 14 BYU, which went 12-2 last year – the schedule somehow found a steeper hill after a 54-point loss.
• The quarterback angle: BYU returns quarterback Bear Bachmeier after 3,033 passing yards, 527 rushing yards and 26 total touchdowns, plus 1,305-yard back LJ Martin. The Cougars last returned a 3,000-yard passer and 1,000-yard rusher together in 2009.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 8:00 PM CT
Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): NMSU -28.5
Over/under: 51.5

The setup

This first meeting comes with matching Week 0 bruises: New Mexico State lost 34-17 at Florida State, while Mercyhurst lost 43-10 at Youngstown State. Somebody's 0 has to go, but neither team arrives pretending the opener went well.

What I’m watching

Both teams have current film now. Mercyhurst lost 43-10 to Youngstown State in Week 0, with Alex Gevaudan completing 18 of 31 for 212 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. New Mexico St lost 34-17 to Florida State in Week 0, with Trey Hedden completing 26 of 42 for 272 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. The first question is whether Mercyhurst can clean up its 2 turnovers; that is a more immediate concern than any 2025 ranking.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: Mercyhurst's Thomas Sydeski is in Year 1; New Mexico St's Tony Sanchez is in Year 3. New Mexico St returns 9 starters—3 on offense and 6 on defense. New Mexico St also kept its head coach and offensive coordinator, so its 2025 offensive habits should carry more weight in this matchup.
• The favorite's run-game test: New Mexico St averaged only 77.3 rushing yards per game last season. Against Mercyhurst, winning is expected; showing a more dependable run game would be the more useful result. The offense brings back 3 starters.
• The quarterback matchup: Alex Gevaudan led Mercyhurst's passing in Week 0 (18 of 31 for 212 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT); Trey Hedden led New Mexico St's passing in Week 0 (26 of 42 for 272 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• The quarterback angle: Trey Hedden threw for 272 yards and two touchdowns at Florida State, the most yards by an Aggies quarterback in a season opener since 2017. His top two receivers combined for 174 yards, the best two-man total anywhere in Week 0.
• The roster reset: The Aggies ran for only 47 yards at Florida State. That is jarring because transfer James Jones averaged 9.8 yards per carry at Delaware State last year; he alone had six 100-yard games, while New Mexico State's entire team reached 100 only twice.
• The turnover test: New Mexico State has forced a turnover in 17 straight games and intercepted a pass in 13 of them. For an offense trying to recover from a 33-point Week 0 loss, one bad throw can become the Aggies' easiest touchdown setup.

How the game is decided

Both teams have already shown their first strengths and first problems. The winner will be the one that fixes its Week 0 weakness without abandoning what worked; turnovers and failed third downs will reveal which staff made the better one-week adjustment.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 7:00 PM CT
Location: Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): UL -20.5
Over/under: 48.5

The setup

Louisiana is favored by 20.5. Lamar already has a full 2026 game on film, creating an advantage in live reps but also giving the opponent real tape to study.

What I’m watching

Lamar beat Abilene Christian 21-14 in Week 0, with Aiden McCown completing 17 of 32 for 183 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. The Week 1 opponent changes the degree of difficulty, but 278 yards—183 passing and 95 rushing—gives us a real 2026 starting point instead of another projection.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: Lamar’s Peter Rossomando is in Year 4; Louisiana’s Michael Desormeaux is in Year 5. Louisiana returns 9 starters—7 on offense and 2 on defense.
• Can the defense dominate: Louisiana allowed 31.7 points per game last season. The standard against Lamar should be higher than simply winning: the defense needs to control the game without help from the offense. That unit returns 2 starters.
• The pressure test: Aiden McCown led Lamar’s passing in Week 0 (17 of 32 for 183 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT); Lunch Winfield returns as Louisiana’s starter (1,539 yards, 11 TD and 7 INT in 2025).

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 7:00 PM CT
Location: Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium
TV: BTN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): NU -12.5
Over/under: 46.5

The setup

Northwestern is favored by 12.5. S Dakota St already has a full 2026 game on film, creating an advantage in live reps but also giving the opponent real tape to study.

What I’m watching

S Dakota St beat Stetson 70-7 in Week 0, with Chase Mason completing 5 of 10 for 157 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. S Dakota St already established the run, finishing with 393 rushing yards. Northwestern allowed 136.3 rushing yards per game in 2025, which makes this a more meaningful follow-up test.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: S Dakota St’s Dan Jackson is in Year 2; Northwestern’s David Braun is in Year 4. Northwestern returns 10 starters—5 on offense and 5 on defense.
• The depth advantage has to show: Northwestern should have the deeper roster, but S Dakota St’s path is to force the new or lightly used starters into an uncomfortable first half.
• Familiarity versus a new offense: Chase Mason led S Dakota St’s passing in Week 0 (5 of 10 for 157 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT); Aidan Chiles is the projected starter for Northwestern (1,392 yards, 10 TD and 3 INT at Michigan St in 2025). Chase Mason was already on S Dakota St’s roster last season; Northwestern is asking its quarterback to translate past production into a new offense immediately.

Three quick analysis points

• S Dakota St already cleared 500 yards: S Dakota St gained 628 yards in Week 0—235 passing and 393 rushing. That is a much more useful early clue than a preseason projection.
• A low-risk test for Northwestern’s protection: Northwestern allowed a disruptive play on 14.7% of its snaps, No. 109 nationally. S Dakota St allowed 21.9 points per game at the FCS level last season. This is the right opener for Northwestern to show that weakness has been repaired; if it still cannot create easy offense, the concern carries into FBS play. Northwestern changed its offensive leadership and returns 5 starters on that side, so last year’s number is a warning or opportunity—not a guarantee.
• What S Dakota St must solve: Northwestern’s defense allowed 5.40 yards per rush play, No. 94 nationally. S Dakota St scored 29.1 points per game at the FCS level last season. S Dakota St needs to find one repeatable way to move the ball; isolated big plays will not be enough if most possessions end quickly. Northwestern kept the same head coach and DC, with 5 defensive starters returning.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 7:00 PM CT
Location: SECU Stadium
TV: BTN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): MD -45.5
Over/under: 56.5

The setup

Maryland is 19-0 against FCS teams since 2000, winning by 33.1 points on average while allowing only 10.6. Hampton is trying to turn the first meeting into the first exception in 26 years.

What I’m watching

Hampton beat Virginia Lynchburg 45-0 in Week 0, with Jalen Woods completing 15 of 26 for 191 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. The urgent issue is ball security after Hampton gave it away 3 times. That has to improve before any comparison with Maryland matters.

Personnel snapshot

• A veteran FBS core: Hampton’s Van Malone is in Year 1; Maryland’s Mike Locksley is in Year 8. Maryland returns 13 starters—6 on offense and 7 on defense.
• The favorite’s run-game test: Maryland averaged only 104.3 rushing yards per game last season. Against Hampton, winning is expected; showing a more dependable run game would be the more useful result. The offense brings back 6 starters.
• The quarterback matchup: Jalen Woods led Hampton’s passing in Week 0 (15 of 26 for 191 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT); Malik Washington returns as Maryland’s starter (2,963 yards, 17 TD and 9 INT in 2025). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• Ball security is already the flashing warning light for Hampton: Hampton gave the ball away 3 times in Week 0. No other statistic matters much if that repeats.
• The scoring trend: Maryland owns the nation’s longest active nonconference winning streak at 18. Under Mike Locksley, the Terps are 20-1 in those games and average 40.3 points, so Hampton’s upset path cannot become a track meet.
• The defensive challenge: Hampton already has a runner with 132 yards at 16.5 per carry, while Maryland ranked 99th nationally against the run last season at 175.6 yards allowed per game. The biggest underdog still found one matchup it can test immediately.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 6:30 PM CT
Location: Lane Stadium
TV: ACC Network
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): VT -51.5
Over/under: 57.5

The setup

Virginia Tech and VMI meet for the 80th time but the first since 1984. A rivalry that began in 1894 took a 42-year commercial break.

What I’m watching

VMI lost 38-10 to Idaho State in Week 0, with JoJo Crump completing 3 of 7 for 16 yards, 0 TD and 0 INT. The early warning is only 240 total yards. Virginia Tech allowed 378.1 yards per game last season, so this is a useful chance to see whether the opener was a one-game problem.

Personnel snapshot

• A veteran FBS core: VMI’s Ashley Ingram is in Year 1; Virginia Tech’s James Franklin is in Year 1. Virginia Tech returns 14 starters—8 on offense and 6 on defense.
• Can the defense dominate: Virginia Tech allowed 30.2 points per game last season. The standard against VMI should be higher than simply winning: the defense needs to control the game without help from the offense. That unit returns 6 starters.
• Familiarity versus a new offense: JoJo Crump led VMI’s passing in Week 0 (3 of 7 for 16 yards, 0 TD and 0 INT); Ethan Grunkemeyer is the projected starter for Virginia Tech (1,079 yards, 6 TD and 4 INT at Penn State in 2025).

Three quick analysis points

• The history: The Hokies lead 49-25-5, yet only seven previous meetings were played in Blacksburg. Tech has won five of the last six there, so the massive series was mostly built somewhere else.
• The coaching angle: James Franklin debuts at Virginia Tech with 128 career wins, the most ever by an African-American FBS head coach. His first game is against one of the program’s oldest opponents.
• The quarterback follow-up: JoJo Crump handled 7 pass attempts for VMI in Week 0. He completed 3 of 7 for 16 yards, 0 TD and 0 INT. Virginia Tech returns 6 defensive starters and ranked only No. 125 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, giving JoJo Crump a chance to settle in.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.