Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 12:00 PM CT
Location: Jack Trice Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): ISU -29.5
Over/under: 53.5

The setup

Iowa State lists 83 newcomers and Southeast Missouri a program-record 53. That is 136 new players around one matchup – enough for both sidelines to hold orientation.

What I’m watching

The thing to watch is how quickly Iowa State’s rebuilt offense settles in. Iowa State averaged 27.4 points per game last season and returns no offensive starters. SE Missouri allowed 29.9 points per game.

Personnel snapshot

• SE Missouri: Tom Matukewicz enters Year 13 as head coach.
• SE Missouri quarterback: Braylen Ragland is the most experienced quarterback on SE Missouri’s roster after transferring from Alabama St. He had no meaningful passing sample in 2025.
• Iowa State: Jimmy Rogers enters Year 1 as head coach. 0 starters return after Matt Campbell took a ton of former Cyclones with him to Penn State. The Iowa State defense allowed 356.5 yards and 20.2 points per game last season.
• Iowa State quarterback: Jaylen Raynor is projected to start for Iowa State. Last season at Arkansas St, he threw for 3,073 yards, 16 TD and 11 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The location wrinkle: New Cyclones quarterback Jaylen Raynor owns 36 career starts and an FBS-leading eight fourth-quarter game-winning drives among active passers. He has also started at Jack Trice Stadium in each of the last two seasons for Arkansas State.
• The running-game test: Iowa State has rushed for at least 150 yards in seven straight games, one of only four active FBS streaks that long. SEMO just held Indiana State to 58 rushing yards, so the underdog’s freshest strength meets the favorite’s longest-running habit.
• The schedule twist: SEMO is 1-29 against FBS opponents and has lost 24 straight in the matchup class. All 30 of those games were on the road – this upset chase has never received home-field training wheels.

How the game is decided

Iowa State needs to start fast — and try to put SEMO away — early. The last thing Rogers needs is a close game in the second half in his first game as head coach.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.