Category: 2026 Week 1

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 11:45 AM CT
Location: Williams-Brice Stadium
TV: SEC Network
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): SC -36.5
Over/under: 53.5

The setup

South Carolina is expected to win comfortably as a 36.5-point favorite. A win is expected; how quickly it takes control may tell us more about what comes next. South Carolina has not lost to a team outside today’s power-conference tier since 2019.

Personnel snapshot

• The defensive continuity edge: Kent State’s Mark Carney is in Year 2; South Carolina’s Shane Beamer is in Year 6. The clearest difference is on defense: South Carolina returns 5 starters to Kent State’s 2. [S5/S4]
• A get-right spot for the run game: South Carolina managed only 111.1 rushing yards per game last season, but Kent State allowed 191.4. This is the clearest chance for a struggling run game to look improved. That comparison still matters because South Carolina returns 5 offensive starters, while Kent State brings back 2 defensive starters. Thomas Aden and Joel Cordoba are the returning defenders most directly responsible for changing that matchup. [S4/S6/S2]
• The quarterback turnover gap: Dru DeShields returns as Kent State’s starter (2,030 yards, 18 TD and 3 INT in 2025); LaNorris Sellers returns as South Carolina’s starter (2,437 yards, 13 TD and 8 INT in 2025). The useful difference is ball security: Dru DeShields’s 2025 interception rate was 1.2%, compared with 2.7% for LaNorris Sellers. [S10/S9/S11]

Three quick analysis points

• Kent State’s run game repair job: Kent State averaged 3.74 yards per rush play, No. 134 nationally. South Carolina’s defense allowed 4.71 yards per rush play, No. 37 nationally. South Carolina was at least respectable in this area, so this is a clean first test of whether Kent State fixed the problem—not an automatic mismatch. The same head coach and OC have 7 offensive starters back, so this was an obvious offseason fix-it job. [S4/S5/S7]
• South Carolina’s protection repair job: South Carolina allowed a disruptive play on 16.6% of its snaps, No. 128 nationally. Kent State’s defense created a disruptive play on 12.3% of snaps, No. 83 nationally. Kent State had problems here too, so South Carolina has very little excuse if the weakness follows it into Week 1. South Carolina changed its offensive leadership and returns 5 starters on that side, so last year’s number is a warning or opportunity—not a guarantee. [S4/S5/S7]
• Dru DeShields was willing to test the deep part of the field: On passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield, Dru DeShields went 24-for-46 for 959 yards, 14 TD and 0 INT. Deep throws made up 18.9% of his attempts—about one in every 5.3 throws. [S17]

How the game is decided

Can South Carolina shake off last year’s awful offensive efforts under Mike Shula? Sellers is gifted, but can he play like its 2024 again? If so, South Carolina could win going away and be a darkhorse to pull some upsets in the SEC.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 11:30 AM CT
Location: Ohio Stadium
TV: BTN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): OSU -50.5
Over/under: 56.5

The setup

Ohio State has won 26 straight season openers. Ball State is attempting to stop a streak older than every player on both rosters.

What I’m watching

The biggest test is whether Ball State can move the ball without living in third-and-long. Their offense ranked No. 135 nationally at 4.4 yards each time it snapped the ball in 2025; Ohio State’s defense ranked No. 1 and allowed only 4.5. Can the Buckeyes be anywhere near that dominant again after losing key players to the NFL?

Personnel snapshot

• The offensive continuity edge: Ball State’s Mike Uremovich is in Year 2; Ohio State’s Ryan Day is in Year 8. Overall continuity is close, but Ohio State’s offense is more settled: 8 starters back compared with 5 for Ball State.
• The first-down matchup: Ball State averaged 131.8 rushing yards per game last season; Ohio State allowed 89.4. With 5 offensive starters back against 3 returning defensive starters, that first-down matchup should decide how much of the playbook remains available.
• The quarterback experience gap: Ball State has officially named Keldric Luster the starter (no meaningful 2025 passing sample); Julian Sayin returns as Ohio State’s starter (3,323 yards, 31 TD and 6 INT in 2025). Ohio State has the clear edge in recent passing reps; Ball State enters with much more uncertainty at the position.

Three quick analysis points

• The history: The Buckeyes are 39-1 against current MAC teams and unbeaten in the last 39 such games. This is the first Ball State-Ohio State meeting, but history has already assigned the conference matchup a shape.
• The scoring trend: Ryan Day is 25-1 in September and 21-1 in regular-season nonconference games. His eight opener wins have come by an average of 25.4 points.
• The turnover test: Ball State returns only two defensive starters, while Julian Sayin produced 13 touchdowns and one interception on deep throws last year. A new defense is being asked to cover the exact part of the field Ohio State uses as a fast-forward button.

How the game is decided

It’s hard to see how Ball State keeps it close. Can the Buckeyes avoid looking ahead to Texas next week?

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 11:30 AM CT
Location: Acrisure Stadium
TV: CW
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): PITT -16.5
Over/under: 49.5

The setup

Pitt leads Miami Ohio 2-0, but the schools have not met since 1949. The Panthers are also 35-6 against the current MAC – a very old series sitting inside a very modern conference advantage.

What I’m watching

The biggest test is whether Miami OH can move the ball without living in third-and-long. That offense ranked No. 83 nationally at 5.7 yards each time it snapped the ball; Pitt’s defense ranked No. 30 and allowed only 5.5. 5 starters from the offense and 5 from the defense return. That is the matchup most likely to tilt field position.

Personnel snapshot

• Continuity is nearly even: Miami OH’s Chuck Martin is in Year 13; Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi is in Year 12. The returning-starter totals are close—Miami OH has 9 (5 offense, 4 defense), while Pitt has 11 (6 offense, 5 defense).
• The protection problem: Pitt brings back no offensive-line starters. Miami OH produced 41 sacks last season and returns 4 defensive starters, including Roosevelt Andrews III and Malcolm McCain. Protection is the personnel battle most likely to change the game.
• The quarterback experience gap: Thomas Gotkowski is the projected starter for Miami OH (503 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT in 2025); Mason Heintschel returns as Pitt’s starter (2,098 yards, 15 TD and 7 INT in 2025). Pitt has the clear edge in recent passing reps; Miami OH enters with much more uncertainty at the position.

Three quick analysis points

• The quarterback angle: Pitt was the only FBS team last season whose true freshmen led it in both passing and rushing. Quarterback Mason Heintschel and running back Ja’Kyrian Turner are young, but they are no longer unknown.
• The running-game test: Turner averaged 94.6 rushing yards and 6.4 per carry from Nov. 1 through the end of last season. The sophomore label hides a runner who finished 2025 at an all-conference pace.
• The defensive challenge: Pitt allowed only 2.7 yards per rush last year. Just six ACC defenses stayed below 3.0 over a full season in the past decade, and Pitt owns three of those six seasons. How the game is decided

Miami OH needs easy offense: a short field, a quarterback run or a quick pass that breaks a tackle. If Pitt makes every drive travel the full field, its advantage should grow with each obvious passing down.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 11:00 AM CT
Location: TDECU Stadium
TV: ESPN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): HOU -20.5
Over/under: 51.5

The setup

Houston won last year’s meeting 27-24 in overtime even though Oregon State outrushed it 189-82. The rematch starts with a warning: owning the ground game did not equal owning the scoreboard.

What I’m watching

The biggest test is whether Oregon St can move the ball without living in third-and-long. That offense ranked No. 122 nationally at 5.1 yards each time it snapped the ball; Houston’s defense ranked No. 43 and allowed only 5.7. 5 starters from the offense and 6 from the defense return. That is the matchup most likely to tilt field position.

Personnel snapshot

• Oregon St: JaMarcus Shephard enters Year 1 as head coach. 10 starters return—5 on offense and 5 on defense. Key defenders back include Takari Hickle, Jacob Schuster, and Aiden Sullivan. That defense allowed 379.8 yards and 29.4 points per game last season.
• Oregon St quarterback: Braden Atkinson beat out Maalik Murphy to be the Oregon State starter at QB. Atkinson threw 34 TDs and 11 INTs last year at Mercer.
• Houston: Willie Fritz enters Year 3 as head coach. 12 starters return—6 on offense and 6 on defense. Key defenders back include Khalil Laufau, Sione Fotu, and Brandon Mack II. The Cougars defense allowed 347.8 yards and 22.8 points per game last season.
• Houston quarterback: Conner Weigman returns as Houston’s starting quarterback. Houston says he started all 13 games in 2025, threw for 2,705 yards and 25 TD, and ran for 700 yards and 11 more scores. His 36 total TD led the Big 12.

Three quick analysis points

• The schedule twist: Oregon State carries a nine-game road losing streak into JaMarcus Shephard’s debut. Its last road win was a 21-0 shutout at San Diego State in September 2024.
• The quarterback angle: New Beavers quarterback Braden Atkinson won the Jerry Rice Award after throwing for 3,596 yards and 34 touchdowns in 11 games at Mercer. He topped 300 yards eight times; now the degree of difficulty jumps to No. 23 Houston.
• The matchup wrinkle: Oregon State’s leading returning wide receiver caught only 12 passes for 144 yards, while its leading returning tight end had 17 catches for 185. The new quarterback is walking into a pass-catching room that is nearly as new as he is.

How the game is decided

Oregon St needs easy offense: a short field, a quarterback run or a quick pass that breaks a tackle. How will Atkinson hold up against the Houston defense?

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 11:00 AM CT
Location: Doyt L. Perry Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): BGSU -2.5
Over/under: 47.5

The setup

This is the first Bowling Green-Tarleton State meeting and Tarleton’s first game against a MAC team. The Texans arrive ranked No. 5 in the FCS, so this is a first date with upset credentials.

What I’m watching

The thing to watch is how quickly Bowling Green’s rebuilt offense settles in. Bowling Green averaged 20.5 points per game last season and returns 2 offensive starters. Tarleton St allowed 18.6 points per game. Tarleton St does not need to match the home team’s depth; it needs to force a few early punts and keep the number of possessions down.

Personnel snapshot

• Tarleton St: Todd Whitten enters Year 11 as head coach.
• Tarleton St quarterback: Kaden Anderson is the most experienced quarterback on Tarleton St’s roster after transferring from Wyoming. Last season at Wyoming, he threw for 1,849 yards, 10 TD and 6 INT.
• Bowling Green: Eddie George enters Year 2 as head coach. 3 starters return—2 on offense and 1 on defense. That offense averaged 306.8 yards and 20.5 points per game last season.
• Bowling Green quarterback: Austin Novosad is projected to start for Bowling Green. He had no meaningful passing sample in 2025.

Three quick analysis points

• The scoring trend: Tarleton already beat Prairie View A&M 49-30 while piling up 505 yards. Bowling Green’s opener is against an offense with live reps and 49 points already on the odometer.
• The roster reset: Bowling Green added 55 players this offseason, and 77.4% of its roster arrived in the last two years. More than three of every four Falcons are still relatively new to the nest.
• The quarterback angle: Only one Bowling Green quarterback returns from 2025. The Falcons added Division II efficiency standout Jay Kastantin and Oregon transfer Austin Novosad, turning the opener into a quarterback reveal against a defense that just allowed 331 passing yards.

How the game is decided

Bowling Green’s first job is avoiding three-and-outs while the new offensive pieces settle in. Tarleton St must turn every early stop into field position or points; empty possessions will eventually let the home team’s size and depth take over.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 11:00 AM CT
Location: Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
TV: FS1
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): NEB -23.5
Over/under: 47.5

The setup

Ohio and Nebraska have never met, but Frank Solich makes this feel like a reunion anyway. His 173 career wins split almost perfectly between the schools – 58 at Nebraska and 115 at Ohio – and he will receive a Legends Award before joining the coin flip.

What I’m watching

There is no overwhelming statistical mismatch here, which puts more pressure on execution. Ohio averaged 6.2 yards each time it snapped the ball last year; Nebraska allowed 5.9.

Personnel snapshot

• Ohio: John Hauser enters Year 2 as head coach. 6 starters return—1 on offense and 5 on defense. Key defenders back include Nehemiah Dukes, Charlie Christopher, and Jack Fries. That defense allowed 352.1 yards and 24.4 points per game last season.
• Ohio quarterback: Nick Poulos is projected to start for Ohio. He had no meaningful passing sample in 2025.
• Nebraska: Matt Rhule enters Year 4 as head coach. 12 starters return—6 on offense and 6 on defense. Key defenders back include Cameron Lenhardt, Williams Nwaneri, and Vincent Shavers Jr.. That defense allowed 329.5 yards and 27.1 points per game last season.
• Nebraska quarterback: Anthony Colandrea is projected to start for Nebraska. Last season at UNLV, he threw for 3,275 yards, 23 TD and 8 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The roster reset: Nebraska’s roster owns 1,467 college games and 494 starts, and 83 of its 115 players are at least in Year 3. That is 72% of the team past the freshman-sophomore stage – an unusually old group for an opener against a rebuilt Ohio offense.
• The turnover test: Nebraska committed only 11 turnovers last season, the fewest in school history and ninth-fewest in the FBS. For a 23.5-point underdog, Ohio’s fastest route to chaos is stealing possessions from a team that almost never donated them.
• New quarterback, immediate test: Anthony Colandrea transferred from UNLV and is expected to make his first start for Nebraska. Last year he threw for 3,275 yards, 23 TD and 8 INT; 2.1% of his throws were picked off. Ohio returns 5 defensive starters and ranked No. 66 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, so this was not an overwhelming pressure mismatch last year. Getting the ball out before obvious passing downs will be central to the game plan.

How the game is decided

Colandrea and the Nebraska offense need to be dynamic, something that didn’t happen with Dylan Raiola and Emmett Johnson in the backfield last year. If that happens, Nebraska doesn’t just win this one running away, it also becomes a darkhorse contender in the Big Ten.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 11:00 AM CT
Location: Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
TV: FOX
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): IU -40.5
Over/under: 55.5

The setup

Indiana opens its title defense after going 16-0, the first major-college team to reach that record since Yale in 1894.

What I’m watching

Man, if only it were 2025. Last season, North Texas finished No. 3 nationally at 7.6 yards each time it snapped the ball; Indiana was No. 16 at stopping offenses, allowing 5.2.  But 0 starters return for North Texas, and 8 starters are back from a dominant defensive unit for the Hoosiers.

Personnel snapshot

• North Texas: Neal Brown enters Year 1 as head coach. 0 starters return—0 on offense and 0 on defense. The North Texas defense allowed 381.9 yards and 26.5 points per game last season.
• North Texas quarterback: Tayven Jackson is projected to start for North Texas. Last season at UCF, he threw for 2,151 yards, 10 TD and 8 INT.
• Indiana: Curt Cignetti enters Year 3 as head coach. 12 starters return—4 on offense and 8 on defense. Key defenders back include Stephen Daley, Mario Landino, and Tyrique Tucker. That defense allowed 266.0 yards and 11.7 points per game last season.
• Indiana quarterback: Josh Hoover is projected to start for Indiana. Last season at TCU, he threw for 3,472 yards, 29 TD and 13 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The coaching angle: Curt Cignetti is 27-2 at Indiana, the most wins by an FBS coach in his first two seasons at a school. The Hoosiers went from turnaround story to national champion before he collected loss No. 3.
• The history: Indiana is 27-3 in nonconference home openers since 1953 and has won 13 straight since 2001. North Texas’s last win in this series came in Denton in 2011; Bloomington has been a different assignment.
• The quarterback angle: For the third straight season, Indiana will start a first-year Hoosier transfer at quarterback. Josh Hoover follows Heisman winner and No. 1 NFL pick Fernando Mendoza, so the most pressurized handoff in college football is becoming an annual Bloomington routine.

How the game is decided

First down decides it. If North Texas stays on schedule, its quarterback gets the full playbook; if Indiana creates second-and-long, the defense can dictate the next two snaps.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 11:00 AM CT
Location: Bridgeforth Stadium
TV: ESPNU
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): JMU -6.5
Over/under: 52.5

The setup

Billy Napier’s first game at James Madison comes with James Madison as the 6.5-point favorite. The result matters, but so does whether the new identity is visible immediately. James Madison won last year’s meeting 31-13.

What I’m watching

The biggest test is whether Liberty can move the ball without living in third-and-long. Last season, the Liberty offense ranked No. 63 nationally at 6.0 yards each time it snapped the ball; James Madison’s defense ranked No. 9 and allowed only 5.0. 6 starters from that offensive unit return. Only 2 starters from that defensive unit return, so the old ranking may not carry cleanly into 2026. That is the matchup most likely to tilt field position.

Personnel snapshot

• Liberty: Jamey Chadwell enters Year 4 as head coach. 10 starters return—6 on offense and 4 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Joep Engbers, Aaron Fenimore, and D.J. Geth. The Flames offense averaged 389.5 yards and 25.6 points per game last season.
• Liberty quarterback: Deshawn Purdie is projected to start for Liberty. Last season at Wake Forest, he threw for 618 yards, 6 TD and 3 INT.
• James Madison: Billy Napier enters Year 1 as head coach. 3 starters return—1 on offense and 2 on defense. A key defender back is Amar Thomas. The JMU defense allowed 266.6 yards and 18.4 points per game last season.
• James Madison quarterback: Either Camden Coleman and JC Evans will start for JMU, but Napier is remaining tight-lipped about it.

How the game is decided

This feels like a coin flip. It’s hard to know what James Madison will look like in 2026 after the change in head coach and so few starters back. And Liberty has 10 starters back and a former Power 4 QB at the helm.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 11:00 AM CT
Location: JMA Wireless Dome
TV: ACC Network
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): SYR -33.5
Over/under: 55.5

The setup

Syracuse is 23-0 against FCS opponents since the major-college split in 1978. New Hampshire is trying to become the first exception in nearly half a century.

What I’m watching

The thing to watch is how quickly Syracuse’s rebuilt offense settles in. Syracuse averaged 20.2 points per game last season and returns 2 offensive starters. New Hampshire allowed 23.2 points per game.

Personnel snapshot

• New Hampshire: Sean Goldrich enters Year 1 as head coach.
• New Hampshire quarterback: Brooks Bentley is New Hampshire’s most experienced returning passer. He had no meaningful passing sample in 2025.
• Syracuse: Fran Brown enters Year 3 as head coach. 7 starters return—2 on offense and 5 on defense. Key defenders back include Antoine Deslauriers, Gary Bryant III, and Demetres Samuel Jr.. The Syracuse defense allowed 427.7 yards and 34.9 points per game last season.
• Syracuse quarterback: Steve Angeli is projected to start for Syracuse. Last season, he threw for 1,317 yards, 10 TD and 2 INT before being hurt about Clemson. Angeli doesn’t mind throwing it deep and testing defenses. He was among the nation’s leaders in 20-plus yard attempts before his injury.

Three quick analysis points

• The location wrinkle: The Orange have won 22 straight Dome games against FCS teams. The venue-specific streak is one game shorter than the entire category streak because Syracuse has been just as automatic indoors.
• The opener trend: Syracuse is 96-34-4 in home openers and has won 10 of the last 12. This first-ever meeting begins in one of the program’s most comfortable calendar slots.
• A first real test at quarterback: Brooks Bentley is New Hampshire’s most experienced returning passer. \Syracuse returns 5 defensive starters and ranked only No. 109 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, giving Brooks Bentley a chance to settle in. New Hampshire returns no listed starting offensive linemen, making protection the immediate question.

How the game is decided

Syracuse’s first job is avoiding three-and-outs while the new offensive pieces settle in. New Hampshire must turn every early stop into field position or points if it hopes to hang around.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 11:00 AM CT
Location: Pratt & Whitney Stadium
TV: TV TBD
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): CONN -19.5
Over/under: 58.5

The setup

Jason Candle’s first game at UConn comes with UConn as the 19.5-point favorite. The result matters, but so does whether the new identity is visible immediately. Lafayette has lost 7 straight season openers.

What I’m watching

The thing to watch is how quickly UConn’s rebuilt offense settles in. UConn averaged 35.3 points per game last season and returns just one offensive starter. Lafayette allowed 28.8 points per game. Lafayette does not need to match the home team’s depth; it needs to force a few early punts and keep the number of possessions down.

Personnel snapshot

• Lafayette: John Troxell enters Year 5 as head coach.
• Lafayette quarterback: Jason Penza is Lafayette’s most experienced returning passer. He had no meaningful passing sample in 2025.
• UConn: Jason Candle enters Year 1 as head coach. 1 starter returns—1 on offense and 0 on defense. A key offensive lineman back is Ty Chan. That offense averaged 445.2 yards and 35.3 points per game last season.
• UConn quarterback: Jake Merklinger is projected to start for UConn. Last season at Tennessee, he threw for 173 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT.

How the game is decided

UConn’s first job is avoiding three-and-outs while the new offensive pieces settle in. Lafayette must turn every early stop into field position or points; empty possessions will eventually let the home team’s size and depth take over.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.