Category: College Football

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 6:00 PM CT
Location: Raymond James Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): USF -13.5
Over/under: 53.5

The setup

Brian Hartline’s first game at South Florida comes with South Florida as the 13.5-point favorite. The result matters, but so does whether the new identity is visible immediately. Since 2004, South Florida leads 2-0 in 2 meetings; South Florida has won 2 straight in the series; the last meeting was South Florida Bulls 17, Florida Intl Golden Panthers 9 (2008).

Personnel snapshot

• FIU: Willie Simmons enters Year 2 as head coach. 5 starters return—2 on offense and 3 on defense. Key defenders back include Kenton Simmons, Josiah Taylor, and Shamir Sterlin. FIU’s defense allowed 411.5 yards and 29.8 points per game last season.
• FIU quarterback: JJ Kohl is projected to start for FIU. Last season at App State, he threw for 1,465 yards, 12 TD and 2 INT.
• South Florida: Brian Hartline enters Year 1 as head coach. 3 starters return—2 on offense and 1 on defense. A key offensive lineman back is Thomas Shrader. South Florida’s offense averaged 488.7 yards and 45.4 points per game last season.
• South Florida quarterback: South Florida has named Michael Van Buren Jr. its starter. Last season, he threw for 896 yards, 8 TD and 2 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• Where FIU can test South Florida: FIU averaged 5.40 yards per rush play, No. 39 nationally. South Florida’s defense allowed 4.73 yards per rush play, No. 40 nationally. Neither 2025 number creates an automatic edge, which makes this a useful early measure of which unit actually improved. FIU kept the same head coach and OC, with 2 offensive starters returning.
• A clear run game opening for South Florida: South Florida averaged 5.99 yards per rush play, No. 16 nationally. FIU’s defense allowed 5.68 yards per rush play, No. 114 nationally. That is the part of the game South Florida should lean on until FIU proves it has changed. South Florida changed its offensive leadership and returns 2 starters on that side, so last year’s number is a warning or opportunity—not a guarantee.
• New quarterback, immediate test: JJ Kohl transferred from App State and is expected to make his first start for FIU. Last year he threw for 1,465 yards, 12 TD and 2 INT; 0.9% of his throws were picked off. South Florida returns 1 defensive starter and ranked No. 65 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, so this was not an overwhelming pressure mismatch last year. FIU returns only one starting offensive lineman, raising the degree of difficulty.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 5:00 PM CT
Location: Canvas Stadium
TV: USA Net
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): CSU -3
Over/under: 47.5

The setup

Wyoming won last year’s Border War 28-0, the first shutout in the rivalry since 2010. Colorado State gets the rematch immediately, but almost none of the same cast: the Rams brought in 76 newcomers.

Personnel snapshot

• Wyoming: Jay Sawvel enters Year 3 as head coach. 6 starters return—4 on offense and 2 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Rex Johnsen and Braylon Jenkins. Wyoming’s offense averaged 314.7 yards and 16.0 points per game last season.
• Wyoming quarterback: Tyler Hughes is projected to start for Wyoming. Last season at William & Mary, he threw for 2,330 yards, 20 TD and 3 INT.
• Colorado St: Jim Mora enters Year 1 as head coach. 4 starters return—1 on offense and 3 on defense. Key defenders back include Jack Moran, Kenyon Agurs, and Jace Bellah. Colorado St’s defense allowed 426.0 yards and 30.8 points per game last season.

Three quick analysis points

• The ranking clue: Meeting No. 118 is the first nonconference Border War since 1967 and the first nonconference game ever played for the Bronze Boot. Conference realignment changed the paperwork, not the trophy case.
• The roster reset: Only 35 Colorado State players return, 33.3% of the roster, and just five qualify as returning starters. Jim Mora’s debut is less a tune-up than a rivalry game with 76 introductions and a boot on the line.
• The turnover test: Wyoming’s new quarterback Tyler Hughes threw for 2,330 yards, ran for 670 and produced 31 touchdowns at William & Mary last year while throwing only three interceptions. He is making an FBS jump with a stat line that already looks built for this level.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 3:15 PM CT
Location: Kinnick Stadium
TV: BTN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): IOWA -31.5
Over/under: 45.5

The setup

Iowa’s defense has finished top-20 nationally in scoring for 11 straight years and allowed fewer than 20 points in each one. The streak is nearly as old as some freshmen were when they started playing football.

What I’m watching

The biggest test is whether N Illinois can move the ball without living in third-and-long. N Illinois’ offense ranked No. 132 nationally at 4.8 yards each time it snapped the ball; Iowa’s defense ranked No. 15 and allowed only 5.2. 4 starters from that offensive unit return. Only 3 starters from that defensive unit return, so the old ranking may not carry cleanly into 2026.

Personnel snapshot

• N Illinois: Rob Harley (interim) enters Year 1 as head coach. 4 starters return—4 on offense and 0 on defense. N Illinois’ offense averaged 285.9 yards and 17.1 points per game last season.
• N Illinois quarterback: Taron Dickens is projected to start for N Illinois. Last season at W Carolina, he threw for 3,508 yards, 38 TD and 2 INT.
• Iowa: Kirk Ferentz enters Year 28 as head coach. 6 starters return—3 on offense and 3 on defense. Key defenders back include Jayden Montgomery, Zach Lutmer, and Deshaun Lee. Iowa’s defense allowed 280.4 yards and 18.1 points per game last season.
• Iowa quarterback: Iowa’s job remains open; Jeremy Hecklinski is the most experienced candidate. He had no meaningful passing sample in 2025.

Three quick analysis points

• The turnover test: Since Phil Parker became defensive coordinator, Iowa is 75-5 when it wins the turnover battle. One extra possession has translated to a 94% win rate.
• The scoring trend: Iowa averaged 29.3 points last year, its best offense since 2018. When the Hawkeyes pair even normal scoring with their decade-long defensive floor, the old rock fight becomes harder to find.
• The quarterback angle: NIU transfer quarterback Taron Dickens threw 38 touchdowns and two interceptions at Western Carolina. His FBS debut comes against an Iowa defense with only three returning starters – elite system versus elite lower-level production, with both samples changing at once.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Beaver Stadium
TV: FS1
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): PSU -24.5
Over/under: 54.5

The setup

Penn State and Marshall have met twice, in 1929 and 1930; the second game was 65-0. The 96-year gap is longer than Beaver Stadium’s current seating bowl has existed.

Personnel snapshot

• Marshall: Tony Gibson enters Year 2 as head coach. 9 starters return—6 on offense and 3 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Tariq Montgomery and Jalen Slappy. Marshall’s offense averaged 405.4 yards and 30.8 points per game last season.
• Marshall quarterback: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson returns as Marshall’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,043 yards, 17 TD and 5 INT.
• Penn State: Matt Campbell enters Year 1 as head coach. 4 starters return—2 on offense and 2 on defense. A key defender back is Audavion Collins. Penn State’s defense allowed 326.8 yards and 20.5 points per game last season.
• Penn State quarterback: Rocco Becht is projected to start for Penn State. Last season at Iowa State, he threw for 2,584 yards, 16 TD and 9 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The roster reset: Matt Campbell debuts after Penn State head coaches went 11-4-1 in their first games. History gives the new era about a 72% chance of beginning without a loss before the roster is considered.
• The matchup wrinkle: Penn State added 62 newcomers, including 40 transfers with 337 combined starts. This is a rebuilt team carrying roughly 28 full seasons of starting experience.
• The quarterback angle: Rocco Becht brings 39 starts, 26 quarterback wins, 9,274 passing yards and 64 touchdowns. He is new to Penn State but leads active FBS quarterbacks in wins and starts.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
TV: ESPN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): TEX -30.5
Over/under: 59.5

The setup

Texas is expected to win comfortably as a 30.5-point favorite. Can the Longhorns slow down a high powered Texas State offense and not get caught looking ahead to Ohio State?

Personnel snapshot

• Texas St: G. J. Kinne enters Year 4 as head coach. 11 starters return—7 on offense and 4 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Sully Burns and Justin DeLeon. Texas St’s offense averaged 472.8 yards and 38.9 points per game last season.
• Texas St quarterback: Brad Jackson returns as Texas St’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 3,050 yards, 18 TD and 7 INT.
• Texas: Steve Sarkisian enters Year 6 as head coach. 13 starters return—7 on offense and 6 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Brandon Baker, Trevor Goosby, and Connor Robertson. Texas’ offense averaged 388.5 yards and 30.5 points per game last season.
• Texas quarterback: Arch Manning returns as Texas’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,942 yards, 24 TD and 7 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• Run game strength meets strength: Texas St averaged 5.93 yards per rush play, No. 18 nationally. Texas’s defense allowed 4.24 yards per rush play, No. 13 nationally. Winning this matchup would force the other side away from what it did best last year. The same head coach and OC return with 7 starters from that offensive unit, making the strength more likely to carry into 2026.
• The protection wall facing Texas: Texas allowed a disruptive play on 13.3% of its snaps, No. 87 nationally. Texas St’s defense created a disruptive play on 14.2% of snaps, No. 30 nationally. Even an average result here would be a win for Texas; losing it badly would make the offense predictable. Texas kept the same head coach and OC, with 7 offensive starters returning.
• Pressure changed everything for Brad Jackson: Brad Jackson completed 55.9% of his passes under pressure last season at 9.5 yards per attempt, with 2 TD and 4 INT (6.8% of throws). From a clean pocket: 73.5%, 8.9 yards per attempt, 19 TD and 3 INT (1.0%). Texas’s pass rush ranked No. 20 in PFF’s 2025 FBS team grades. In plain terms: make him speed up, and the game changes.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Nippert Stadium
TV: FOX
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): CIN -7.5
Over/under: 51.5

The setup

Cincinnati has won 24 straight home openers, the country’s second-longest active streak behind Oklahoma State’s 30. Boston College is trying to interrupt something Nippert has repeated since 2002.

Personnel snapshot

• Boston College: Bill O’Brien enters Year 3 as head coach. 5 starters return—1 on offense and 4 on defense. Key defenders back include Chris Marable Jr., Carter Davis, and Isaiah Farris. Boston College’s defense allowed 433.3 yards and 32.8 points per game last season.
• Boston College quarterback: Mason McKenzie is projected to start for Boston College. He had no meaningful passing sample in 2025.
• Cincinnati: Scott Satterfield enters Year 4 as head coach. 5 starters return—3 on offense and 2 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Joe Cotton, Taran Tyo, and Evan Tengesdahl. Cincinnati’s offense averaged 407.3 yards and 30.3 points per game last season.
• Cincinnati quarterback: JC French IV is projected to start for Cincinnati. Last season at GA Southern, he threw for 2,753 yards, 19 TD and 8 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The history: The series is tied 4-4, but this is the first regular-season meeting since 1997. Cincinnati won the 2020 bowl meeting 38-6, so the history book says even while the freshest memory does not.
• The pressure point: Cincinnati’s line allowed only eight sacks and 43 tackles for loss, both the fewest among Power Four teams. Boston College ranked 120th in pass rush, making the Bearcats’ cleanest strength hard for BC to challenge.
• The quarterback angle: New Cincinnati quarterback JC French brings 26 starts and 45 total touchdowns after becoming Georgia Southern’s career passing leader. He is new to the uniform, not to managing an offense.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV: ABC
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): AUB -7
Over/under: 59.5

The setup

Auburn won last year’s opener 38-24 by outrushing Baylor 307-64. Both programs changed major pieces, but the rematch begins with a 243-yard neon sign pointing toward the line of scrimmage.

Personnel snapshot

• Baylor: Dave Aranda enters Year 7 as head coach. 5 starters return—1 on offense and 4 on defense. Key defenders back include Devonte Tezino, Kyland Reed, and LeVar Thornton Jr.. Baylor’s defense allowed 392.1 yards and 41.4 points per game last season.
• Baylor quarterback: DJ Lagway is projected to start for Baylor. Last season at Florida, he threw for 2,264 yards, 16 TD and 14 INT.
• Auburn: Alex Golesh enters Year 1 as head coach. 3 starters return—1 on offense and 2 on defense. Key defenders back include Xavier Atkins and Kaleb Harris. Auburn’s defense allowed 329.2 yards and 23.3 points per game last season.
• Auburn quarterback: Byrum Brown will start for Auburn. Last season at South Florida, he threw for 3,158 yards, 28 TD and 7 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The turnover test: Auburn added 57 newcomers and Baylor added 54. That is 111 new players around one rematch – almost enough turnover to make last year’s film look like it belongs to different teams.
• The roster reset: Auburn imported an SEC-high 176 career starts through the portal. Baylor counters with 39 portal additions, so the neutral-site opener is less about avoiding transfers and more about which collection becomes a team first.
• The quarterback angle: Auburn’s Byrum Brown already beat Baylor’s DJ Lagway 18-16 when South Florida visited Florida last year. New uniforms, new schools, same quarterbacks – the transfer portal created a sequel inside the rematch.

How the game is decided

This comes down to the quarterbacks and offensive lines. The team that avoids sacks and giveaways can keep its whole playbook available; the first offense that becomes one-dimensional gives the other side control of the game.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Autzen Stadium
TV: CBS
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): ORE -24.5
Over/under: 51.5

The setup

Boise State still leads Oregon 3-1, even after the Ducks finally broke through 37-34 in 2024. The No. 2 team is the favorite; the visitor still owns the series.

Personnel snapshot

• Boise St: Spencer Danielson enters Year 4 as head coach. 13 starters return—7 on offense and 6 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Roger Carreon, Daylon Metoyer, and Jason Steele. Boise St’s offense averaged 424.0 yards and 29.9 points per game last season.
• Boise St quarterback: Maddux Madsen returns as Boise St’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,283 yards, 18 TD and 7 INT.
• Oregon: Dan Lanning enters Year 5 as head coach. 14 starters return—6 on offense and 8 on defense. Key defenders back include Bear Alexander, Jerry Mixon, and Aaron Flowers. Oregon’s defense allowed 273.7 yards and 17.9 points per game last season.
• Oregon quarterback: Dante Moore returns as Oregon’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,733 yards, 24 TD and 6 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The recent trend: Oregon is 48-8 under Dan Lanning, tied for the nation’s second-best winning percentage since 2022, and 26-2 at home. The Ducks have made dominance and Autzen almost interchangeable.
• The history: Oregon has won 15 straight home season openers and 21 straight home openers overall. Boise’s series edge is walking into two larger streaks at once.
• The turnover test: Maddux Madsen is 20-6 as Boise’s starter and 14-1 in conference games, with 50 career touchdown passes against 16 interceptions in 818 attempts. Oregon is facing a quarterback whose mistake rate is only 2.0% across a very large sample.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 4:00 PM CT
Location: M. M. Roberts Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): USM -21
Over/under: 50.5

The setup

Southern Miss is 11-0 against current SWAC teams and 4-0 against Alcorn State. The series is perfect, but one of those four wins was only 26-20 – history includes at least one fourth quarter.

What I’m watching

Alcorn St beat Miles College 56-7 in Week 0, with Jaylon Tolbert completing 25 of 28 for 265 yards, 5 TD and 0 INT. Alcorn St put 316 passing yards on film. Southern Miss allowed 229.2 passing yards per game last season, so the same approach gets a different test here.

Personnel snapshot

• The FBS roster is rebuilding too: Alcorn St’s Cedric Thomas is in Year 3; Southern Miss’s Blake Anderson is in Year 2. Southern Miss returns 1 starter—1 on offense and 0 on defense.
• Where points should be available: Alcorn St averaged 39.3 points per game last season; Southern Miss allowed 35.8. That gives the underdog a believable path: score early enough to make the favorite play with pressure.
• One familiar option, one unknown: Jaylon Tolbert led Alcorn St’s passing in Week 0 (25 of 28 for 265 yards, 5 TD and 0 INT); Ethan Hampton is the projected starter for Southern Miss (no meaningful 2025 passing sample). Jaylon Tolbert was already on Alcorn St’s roster last season; Ethan Hampton is new to Southern Miss and brings very little recent game experience.
• Availability: Southern Miss says defensive end Zachariah Keith is healthy and set to play his first game since 2022 after recovering from a neck injury and a spring 2026 partial pectoral tear.

Three quick analysis points

• The opener trend: Since the FCS split in 1978, Southern Miss is 9-0 when opening against an FCS opponent. Alcorn is trying to become the first Week 1 exception in 48 years.
• The recent trend: Alcorn already won 56-7 in Week 0. Southern Miss has live film on the underdog, but the underdog also arrives with the confidence of a 49-point runway.
• New quarterback, immediate test: Ethan Hampton transferred from Illinois and is expected to make his first start for Southern Miss. Last year he threw for 27 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT; 25.0% of his throws were picked off. Alcorn St finished last season with 17 sacks. Southern Miss returns no listed starting offensive linemen, making protection the immediate question.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 3:15 PM CT
Location: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
TV: SEC Network
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): ARK -40.5
Over/under: 63.5

The setup

North Alabama’s only previous SEC game was in 1959. Sixty-seven years later, its first SEC matchup as an FCS program is also the first meeting with Arkansas.

What I’m watching

North Alabama beat Samford 22-10 in Week 0, with Destin Wade completing 13 of 19 for 229 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. The Week 1 opponent changes the degree of difficulty, but 394 yards—229 passing and 165 rushing—gives us a real 2026 starting point instead of another projection.

Personnel snapshot

• A new staff with some carryover: North Alabama’s Brent Dearmon is in Year 4; Arkansas’s Ryan Silverfield is in Year 1. Arkansas returns 6 starters—4 on offense and 2 on defense.
• Where points should be available: Arkansas averaged 32.9 points per game last season; North Alabama allowed 40.5. If those identities survive the roster changes, this is where the favorite should create separation.
• The quarterback matchup: Destin Wade led North Alabama’s passing in Week 0 (13 of 19 for 229 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT); Arkansas’s competition remains open, with KJ Jackson the lead candidate (441 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in 2025). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• The opener trend: Arkansas is 104-24-4 in season openers, and new coach Ryan Silverfield is 5-1. One of Silverfield’s wins was a 40-0 result over this same North Alabama program at Memphis in 2024.
• The running-game test: North Alabama held Samford to minus-8 team rushing yards in Week 0. Arkansas averaged 7.15 yards per rush last year, best in the FBS – the opener’s most eye-popping stat meets the favorite’s biggest strength.
• The quarterback angle: KJ Jackson will be Arkansas’s first left-handed opening-day quarterback since Barry Lunney Jr. in 1995. He completed 61.1% with three touchdowns and no picks in his small 2025 sample.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.