Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV: ABC
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): AUB -7
Over/under: 59.5

The setup

Auburn won last year’s opener 38-24 by outrushing Baylor 307-64. Both programs changed major pieces, but the rematch begins with a 243-yard neon sign pointing toward the line of scrimmage.

Personnel snapshot

• Baylor: Dave Aranda enters Year 7 as head coach. 5 starters return—1 on offense and 4 on defense. Key defenders back include Devonte Tezino, Kyland Reed, and LeVar Thornton Jr.. Baylor’s defense allowed 392.1 yards and 41.4 points per game last season.
• Baylor quarterback: DJ Lagway is projected to start for Baylor. Last season at Florida, he threw for 2,264 yards, 16 TD and 14 INT.
• Auburn: Alex Golesh enters Year 1 as head coach. 3 starters return—1 on offense and 2 on defense. Key defenders back include Xavier Atkins and Kaleb Harris. Auburn’s defense allowed 329.2 yards and 23.3 points per game last season.
• Auburn quarterback: Byrum Brown will start for Auburn. Last season at South Florida, he threw for 3,158 yards, 28 TD and 7 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The turnover test: Auburn added 57 newcomers and Baylor added 54. That is 111 new players around one rematch – almost enough turnover to make last year’s film look like it belongs to different teams.
• The roster reset: Auburn imported an SEC-high 176 career starts through the portal. Baylor counters with 39 portal additions, so the neutral-site opener is less about avoiding transfers and more about which collection becomes a team first.
• The quarterback angle: Auburn’s Byrum Brown already beat Baylor’s DJ Lagway 18-16 when South Florida visited Florida last year. New uniforms, new schools, same quarterbacks – the transfer portal created a sequel inside the rematch.

How the game is decided

This comes down to the quarterbacks and offensive lines. The team that avoids sacks and giveaways can keep its whole playbook available; the first offense that becomes one-dimensional gives the other side control of the game.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.