Category: College Football

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 6:00 PM CT
Location: Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): TROY -16.5
Over/under: 53.5

The setup

Sam Houston is 0-7-1 against Troy, but the last meeting ended 23-21 in 2000 after Troy got its first 16 points from special teams. Twenty-six years later, the series returns at the FBS level with the Bearkats still chasing win No. 1.

What I’m watching

Something has to give when Troy has the ball. Its offense ranked No. 131 nationally, but Sam Houston’s defense was only No. 134. One struggling unit gets a chance to look much better in Week 1. 6 starters from that offensive unit return. Only 2 starters from that defensive unit return, so the old ranking may not carry cleanly into 2026.

Personnel snapshot

• Sam Houston: Phil Longo enters Year 2 as head coach. 5 starters return—3 on offense and 2 on defense. Sam Houston’s offense averaged 316.0 yards and 17.9 points per game last season.
• Sam Houston quarterback: Landyn Locke is projected to start for Sam Houston. Last season, he threw for 765 yards, 4 TD and 4 INT.
• Troy: Gerad Parker enters Year 3 as head coach. 7 starters return—6 on offense and 1 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Caleb Ash, Elijah Prather, and Tra’jon Townsend. Troy’s offense averaged 307.2 yards and 23.5 points per game last season.
• Troy quarterback: Goose Crowder returns as Troy’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 1,314 yards, 11 TD and 5 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The pressure point: Sam Houston’s line allowed 36 sacks last year and now has four new starters; Troy produced 37 sacks, recorded at least three in nine games and returns Sun Belt sack leader Donnie Smith (11). That is the cleanest reason Troy can make a 16.5-point spread feel real.
• The defensive challenge: The protection crisis exists on both sidelines: Troy allowed an FBS-worst 59 sacks and also replaces four linemen, while Sam Houston produced 12 sacks over its final four games after only nine in the first eight. Whichever rebuilt line looks functional first may decide the opener.
• Pressure changed everything for Goose Crowder: Goose Crowder completed 40.0% of his passes under pressure last season at 5.0 yards per attempt, with 4 TD and 2 INT (4.0% of throws). From a clean pocket: 65.5%, 7.3 yards per attempt, 7 TD and 3 INT (2.1%). Sam Houston’s pass rush ranked No. 125 in PFF’s 2025 FBS team grades. In plain terms: make him speed up, and the game changes.

How the game is decided

The winner is probably the team that makes fewer bad situations worse. A modest run game and a quarterback willing to take the easy throw may matter more than highlight plays because both sides enter with something to prove in this matchup.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 5:00 PM CT
Location: S.B. Ballard Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): ODU -41.5
Over/under: 55.5

The setup

These schools are separated by five miles, but ODU is 4-0 in the series. This is less a normal FBS buy game than a neighborhood argument in which Norfolk State has never had the last word.

What I’m watching

Norfolk St beat Winston-Salem 56-0 in Week 0, with Deljay Bailey completing 13 of 20 for 119 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. Norfolk St already established the run, finishing with 306 rushing yards. Old Dominion allowed 140.1 rushing yards per game in 2025, which makes this a more meaningful follow-up test.

Personnel snapshot

• The FBS roster is rebuilding too: Norfolk St’s Michael Vick is in Year 2; Old Dominion’s Ricky Rahne is in Year 7. Old Dominion returns 5 starters—1 on offense and 4 on defense.
• Where points should be available: Old Dominion averaged 31.5 points per game last season; Norfolk St allowed 36.8. If those identities survive the roster changes, this is where the favorite should create separation.
• The pressure test: Deljay Bailey led Norfolk St’s passing in Week 0 (13 of 20 for 119 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT); Quinn Henicle is the projected starter for Old Dominion (57 yards, 0 TD and 0 INT in 2025). The tougher first assignment belongs to Deljay Bailey: Old Dominion produced 39 sacks last season.

Three quick analysis points

• Norfolk St kept extending drives: Norfolk St converted 7 of 9 third downs in Week 0 (78%). That is how an offense keeps its defense rested and controls a game.
• The scoring trend: ODU is favored by 41.5, yet its last three wins over Norfolk State came by 3, 14 and 3 points – 20 points total. The market expects twice as much separation Saturday as those three meetings produced combined.
• The opener trend: Two streaks collide: ODU ended 2025 with six straight wins, tied for the third-longest active streak nationally, but has lost three straight season openers. One of those habits ends immediately.

How the game is decided

Norfolk St owns the advantage of live game reps, but Old Dominion owns a full game of film on the new offense. The result turns on whether the Week 0 strength travels—or whether the same weakness shows up once the opponent has had time to target it.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Monday, September 7 at 6:30 PM CT
Location: Doak Campbell Stadium
TV: ESPN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): SMU -3
Over/under: 53.5

The setup

SMU won the programs’ only meeting 42-16 in 2024, its first ACC game. The sequel is Florida State’s first time hosting the Mustangs, so Doak Campbell Stadium gets a 26-point revenge test in matchup No. 2.

Personnel snapshot

• SMU: Rhett Lashlee enters Year 5 as head coach. 11 starters return—7 on offense and 4 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Joshua Bates, Addison Nichols, and PJ Williams. SMU’s offense averaged 416.9 yards and 32.2 points per game last season.
• SMU quarterback: Kevin Jennings returns as SMU’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 3,363 yards, 26 TD and 10 INT.
• Florida State: Mike Norvell enters Year 7 as head coach. 6 starters return—2 on offense and 4 on defense. Key defenders back include Daniel Lyons, Blake Nichelson, and Ashlynd Barker. Florida State’s defense allowed 328.8 yards and 22.0 points per game last season.
• Florida State quarterback: Florida State has named Ashton Daniels its starter. Last season at Auburn, he threw for 797 yards, 3 TD and 2 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The running-game test: Florida State allowed only 47 rushing yards and 2.0 per carry in its opener, the second-lowest Week 0 total. SMU added 821-yard, 12-touchdown back Kendrick Raphael, making the Seminoles’ sharpest first result meet one of the Mustangs’ biggest upgrades.
• The matchup wrinkle: Ousmane Kromah ran for 115 yards on 14 carries, an FBS-leading 8.21 per attempt after Week 0 and Florida State’s first 100-yard game since the 2023 ACC title game. SMU’s first defensive assignment is the end of a 33-month Seminoles drought.
• The quarterback angle: Ashton Daniels generated 232 yards and two touchdowns in his Florida State debut and owns 4,985 passing yards plus 1,427 rushing yards in his career. The new Seminoles quarterback enters the game only 15 passing yards from 5,000.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 9:30 PM CT
Location: California Memorial Stadium
TV: ESPN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): UCLA -1.5
Over/under: 53.5

The setup

California and UCLA played a conference game for 91 straight seasons from 1933-2023, then paused for two years after changing leagues. Meeting No. 95 is an old conference ritual returning as an unusual nonconference opener.

Personnel snapshot

• UCLA: Bob Chesney enters Year 1 as head coach. 6 starters return—3 on offense and 3 on defense. Key defenders back include Scooter Jackson, Cole Martin, and Rodrick Pleasant. UCLA’s defense allowed 387.0 yards and 33.4 points per game last season.
• UCLA quarterback: Nico Iamaleava returns as UCLA’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 1,928 yards, 13 TD and 7 INT.
• California: Tosh Lupoi enters Year 1 as head coach. 9 starters return—6 on offense and 3 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Tyson Ruffins and Sioape Vatikani. California’s offense averaged 357.6 yards and 25.3 points per game last season.
• California quarterback: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele returns as California’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 3,117 yards, 17 TD and 9 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The turnover test: California won the last meeting 33-7 by forcing four turnovers and shutting UCLA out after halftime. The Bruins lead the full series 58-35-1, but the freshest tape is a 26-point Cal win built on stolen possessions.
• The recent trend: The last time UCLA visited Berkeley, California led by 11 in the second quarter and still lost 35-28. Pair that with the 2023 blowout and the last two meetings say the first-half scoreboard has been a very poor narrator.
• The matchup wrinkle: Sagapolutele ended his freshman year with 178 consecutive passes without an interception, only seven shy of Jared Goff’s California record. UCLA arrives with its own four-game streak without throwing a pick, so the first giveaway may feel unusually expensive.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Sunday, September 6 at 3:00 PM CT
Location: Husky Stadium
TV: NBC
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): WASH -23.5
Over/under: 50.5

The setup

The 118th Apple Cup is the first used as a season opener and the earliest ever played. A rivalry that lived near Thanksgiving is opening the entire calendar instead.

Personnel snapshot

• Washington State: Kirby Moore enters Year 1 as head coach. 5 starters return—5 on offense and 0 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Jonny Lester and Ashton Tripp. Washington State’s offense averaged 338.7 yards and 22.5 points per game last season.
• Washington State quarterback: Caden Pinnick is projected to start for Washington State. Last season at UC Davis, he threw for 2,804 yards, 29 TD and 9 INT.
• Washington: Jedd Fisch enters Year 3 as head coach. 11 starters return—7 on offense and 4 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Drew Azzopardi, Geirean Hatchett, and Landen Hatchett. Washington’s offense averaged 409.9 yards and 34.1 points per game last season.
• Washington quarterback: Demond Williams Jr. returns as Washington’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,850 yards, 21 TD and 8 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The recent trend: Washington leads 77-34-6 and has won 20 of the last 27 Apple Cups. The overall history is lopsided; the recent quarter-century made it even steeper.
• The history: Last year Washington scored 28 fourth-quarter points in a 59-24 win. Demond Williams produced 376 yards and five touchdowns, so Washington State has an extremely specific rematch problem.
• Demond Williams Jr. stayed dangerous under pressure: Demond Williams Jr. completed 56.3% of his passes under pressure last season at 7.4 yards per attempt, with 6 TD and 1 INT (1.0% of throws). From a clean pocket: 74.6%, 9.1 yards per attempt, 19 TD and 7 INT (2.8%). That means pressure alone may not be enough for Washington St; he was still dangerous when hurried.

How the game is decided

Washington has plenty of offense back from last year’s squad and should be able to control this one, as long as the Huskies avoid turnovers and penalties that can disrupt drives.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Kickoff: Sunday, September 6 at 6:30 PM CT
Location: Nissan Stadium
TV: ABC
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): MISS -6.5
Over/under: 55.5

The setup

Louisville-Ole Miss is Week 1’s only ranked-versus-ranked game. Sunday night gets the one matchup where both teams enter with a number beside the logo.

What I’m watching

This is the cleanest strength-on-strength part of the game. Ole Miss finished No. 13 nationally at 6.9 yards each time it snapped the ball; Louisville was No. 7 at stopping offenses, allowing 5.0. 5 starters from the offense and 5 from the defense return. Whichever side still looks like its 2025 version probably controls the game.

Personnel snapshot

• Louisville: Jeff Brohm enters Year 4 as head coach. 9 starters return—4 on offense and 5 on defense. Key defenders back include T.J. Capers, Clev Lubin, and Tayon Holloway. Louisville’s defense allowed 303.1 yards and 23.5 points per game last season.
• Louisville quarterback: Lincoln Kienholz is projected to start for Louisville. Last season, he threw for 139 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT.
• Ole Miss: Pete Golding enters Year 2 as head coach. 10 starters return—5 on offense and 5 on defense. Key defenders back include Will Echoles, Kam Franklin, and Suntarine Perkins. Ole Miss’ defense allowed 348.0 yards and 21.2 points per game last season.
• Ole Miss quarterback: Trinidad Chambliss returns as Ole Miss’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 3,016 yards, 18 TD and 3 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The recent trend: Louisville starts No. 24, its first preseason AP ranking since 2017. Jeff Brohm also owns three straight nine-win seasons, so the poll finally caught up to the results.
• The matchup wrinkle: Louisville back Isaac Brown averaged 8.8 yards per carry, best in the country by more than a full yard. A normal two-yard run and one Brown carry averaged out to a first down.
• Trinidad Chambliss was willing to test the deep part of the field: On passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield, Trinidad Chambliss went 28-for-55 for 987 yards, 5 TD and 2 INT. Deep throws made up 12.3% of his attempts—about one in every 8.1 throws.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Sunday, September 6 at 6:30 PM CT
Location: Lambeau Field
TV: NBC
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): ND -20.5
Over/under: 47.5

The setup

This will be Wisconsin’s second game at Lambeau Field. The first was a 16-14 upset of No. 5 LSU in 2016, and the only other college game played there was St. Norbert-Fordham in 1983 – this is rare turf even before No. 4 Notre Dame arrives.

What I’m watching

The biggest test is whether Wisconsin can move the ball without living in third-and-long. Wisconsin’s offense ranked No. 127 nationally at 5.0 yards each time it snapped the ball; Notre Dame’s defense ranked No. 11 and allowed only 5.1. Only 3 starters from that offensive unit return, so the old ranking may not carry cleanly into 2026. 8 starters from that defensive unit are back, so the old ranking still matters. That is the matchup most likely to tilt field position.

Personnel snapshot

• Wisconsin: Luke Fickell enters Year 4 as head coach. 4 starters return—3 on offense and 1 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Colin Cubberly and Emerson Mandell. Wisconsin’s offense averaged 253.1 yards and 12.8 points per game last season.
• Wisconsin quarterback: Colton Joseph is projected to start for Wisconsin. Last season at Old Dominion, he threw for 2,624 yards, 21 TD and 10 INT.
• Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman enters Year 5 as head coach. 14 starters return—6 on offense and 8 on defense. Key defenders back include Jason Onye, Jaiden Ausberry, and Drayk Bowen. Notre Dame’s defense allowed 313.5 yards and 26.8 points per game last season.
• Notre Dame quarterback: CJ Carr returns as Notre Dame’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,741 yards, 24 TD and 6 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The fourth-quarter swing: The last Wisconsin-Notre Dame game was tied 10-10 after three quarters. Notre Dame then won the fourth quarter 31-3 and the game 41-13, turning a coin flip into a blowout in about 15 minutes.
• The roster reset: Wisconsin added 34 transfers, third-most in the Big Ten, and projects as many as 11 new starters. The Badgers are wearing one of college football’s most familiar uniforms while effectively introducing half a lineup on Sunday night.
• The quarterback angle: New Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph was one of only two FBS quarterbacks to throw for 2,000 yards and run for 1,000 last season. Notre Dame is not preparing for a normal pocket passer; it has to defend a full running back’s season attached to the quarterback position.

How the game is decided

Joseph needs to rejuvenate the Wisconsin offense, which must be able to control the line of scrimmage at times to stay ahead of the chains. Notre Dame needs to avoid big mistakes. The Irish are the better team on paper — don’t give the Lambeau crowd hope.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Location: Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium — Kennesaw, Georgia
Kickoff: Thursday, September 3 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): Kennesaw State -23.5
Over/under: 51.5

The Setup

This is the first Kennesaw State-West Georgia meeting, but Kennesaw arrives with one of the strangest résumés in modern FBS: 10 wins in only its second transition season, something just three other programs had done. Steve Englehart’s first game at West Georgia comes with West Georgia as the 23.5-point underdog.

What I’m Watching

The thing to watch is how quickly Kennesaw St’s rebuilt offense settles in. Kennesaw St averaged 31.3 points per game last season and returns 2 offensive starters. West Georgia allowed 21.0 points per game. West Georgia does not need to match the home team’s depth; it needs to force a few early punts and keep the number of possessions down.

Personnel Snapshot

West Georgia: Steve Englehart enters Year 1 as head coach. South Dakota State transfer Luke Marble is the most experienced quarterback on the roster after throwing for 492 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions last season.

Kennesaw State: Jerry Mack enters Year 2 with six returning starters—two on offense and four on defense. The defense allowed 404.6 yards and 25.5 points per game.

Kennesaw State quarterback: Rickie Collins is projected to start after throwing for 1,042 yards, six touchdowns and 10 interceptions at Syracuse.

Three Quick Analysis Points

• The recent trend: Kennesaw went from 2-10 to 10 wins, the fifth-largest year-over-year turnaround since 2000. The Owls did not climb one rung; they skipped most of the ladder.
• The matchup wrinkle: Six of Kennesaw’s wins were one-possession games, more than any other FBS team. That makes last year’s breakthrough both impressive and fragile – one bounce per Saturday helped build a 10-win season.
• The quarterback angle: Kennesaw’s defensive backs bring more than 315 career games and 121 starts. West Georgia lists Luke Marble for his first start after only 73 career passes – the newest quarterback is throwing at the oldest room.

How the Game Is Decided

Kennesaw St’s first job is avoiding three-and-outs while the new offensive pieces settle in. West Georgia must turn every early stop into field position or points; empty possessions will eventually let the home team’s size and depth take over.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 9:00 PM CT
Location: Hornet Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): SAC -35.5
Over/under: 56.5

The setup

Sacramento State is one of the two newest FBS programs, but this is its first game against a lower-division team since a 77-19 win in 2019. The new kid at the FBS table gets to play the heavyweight for one night.

What I’m watching

The thing to watch is how quickly Sacramento St’s rebuilt offense settles in. Sacramento St averaged 33.8 points per game last season and returns one offensive starter. Miss Valley St allowed 52.8 points per game.

Personnel snapshot

• Mississippi Valley State: Terrell Buckley enters Year 2 as head coach.
• Mississippi Valley State quarterback: Joshua Brown is Mississippi Valley State’s most experienced returning passer. He had no meaningful passing sample in 2025.
• Sacramento St: Alonzo Carter enters Year 1 as head coach. 4 starters return—1 on offense and 3 on defense.
• Sacramento St quarterback: Carson Conklin is projected to start for Sacramento St. Last season at Fresno St, he threw for 354 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The scoring trend: The Hornets have won four straight home openers while averaging 43.3 points. Mississippi Valley State trailed 37-0 at halftime in its Week 0 loss, so Sacramento State’s favorite calendar spot meets the Delta Devils’ worst recent half.
• The turnover test: Mississippi Valley State’s only Week 0 touchdown was a 95-yard pick-six, while Sacramento State scored on a fumble return in its opener. Both teams already showed that the defense may be the fastest route to points.
• A first real test at quarterback: Joshua Brown is Miss Valley St’s most experienced returning passer. He enters Week 1 without a meaningful 2025 passing sample. Sacramento St finished last season with 38 sacks. Miss Valley St returns no listed starting offensive linemen, making protection the immediate question.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:45 PM CT
Location: H. A. Chapman Stadium
TV: ESPNU
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): OKST -14
Over/under: 60.5

The setup

Tulsa and Oklahoma State are only about 72 miles apart, and meeting No. 78 comes with fresh scar tissue: Tulsa’s 19-12 win last year ended a 10-game Cowboys streak and was the Golden Hurricane’s first series win since 1998.

Personnel snapshot

• Oklahoma State: Eric Morris enters Year 1 as head coach. 4 starters return—1 on offense and 3 on defense. Key defenders back include Landon Dean, Iman Oates, and LaDainian Fields. Oklahoma State’s defense allowed 418.3 yards and 33.5 points per game last season.
• Oklahoma State quarterback: Drew Mestemaker is the new starter for Oklahoma State. Last season at North Texas, he threw for 4,129 yards, 31 TD and 7 INT and was one of the stories of college football.
• Tulsa: Tre Lamb enters Year 2 as head coach. 8 starters return—2 on offense and 6 on defense. Key defenders back include Tai Newhouse, William Alexander, and JD Drew. Tulsa’s defense allowed 396.7 yards and 28.9 points per game last season.
• Tulsa quarterback: Baylor Hayes returns as Tulsa’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,158 yards, 12 TD and 6 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The recent trend: Tulsa is 21-17-2 against Oklahoma State in Tulsa, but the Cowboys have won four straight visits. The long history favors the home city; the recent history favors the orange visitors.
• The opener trend: Oklahoma State has won 11 straight season openers, the fourth-longest active FBS streak. Tulsa is trying to stack consecutive rivalry wins while ending a streak that began in 2015.
• The turnover test: Baylor Hayes set Tulsa freshman records with 2,158 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, 2,346 total yards and six 200-yard games. One of those was a 219-yard, no-interception win at Oklahoma State, so the rematch quarterback already owns the blueprint.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.