Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 6:00 PM CT
Location: Raymond James Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): USF -13.5
Over/under: 53.5

The setup

Brian Hartline’s first game at South Florida comes with South Florida as the 13.5-point favorite. The result matters, but so does whether the new identity is visible immediately. Since 2004, South Florida leads 2-0 in 2 meetings; South Florida has won 2 straight in the series; the last meeting was South Florida Bulls 17, Florida Intl Golden Panthers 9 (2008).

Personnel snapshot

• FIU: Willie Simmons enters Year 2 as head coach. 5 starters return—2 on offense and 3 on defense. Key defenders back include Kenton Simmons, Josiah Taylor, and Shamir Sterlin. FIU’s defense allowed 411.5 yards and 29.8 points per game last season.
• FIU quarterback: JJ Kohl is projected to start for FIU. Last season at App State, he threw for 1,465 yards, 12 TD and 2 INT.
• South Florida: Brian Hartline enters Year 1 as head coach. 3 starters return—2 on offense and 1 on defense. A key offensive lineman back is Thomas Shrader. South Florida’s offense averaged 488.7 yards and 45.4 points per game last season.
• South Florida quarterback: South Florida has named Michael Van Buren Jr. its starter. Last season, he threw for 896 yards, 8 TD and 2 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• Where FIU can test South Florida: FIU averaged 5.40 yards per rush play, No. 39 nationally. South Florida’s defense allowed 4.73 yards per rush play, No. 40 nationally. Neither 2025 number creates an automatic edge, which makes this a useful early measure of which unit actually improved. FIU kept the same head coach and OC, with 2 offensive starters returning.
• A clear run game opening for South Florida: South Florida averaged 5.99 yards per rush play, No. 16 nationally. FIU’s defense allowed 5.68 yards per rush play, No. 114 nationally. That is the part of the game South Florida should lean on until FIU proves it has changed. South Florida changed its offensive leadership and returns 2 starters on that side, so last year’s number is a warning or opportunity—not a guarantee.
• New quarterback, immediate test: JJ Kohl transferred from App State and is expected to make his first start for FIU. Last year he threw for 1,465 yards, 12 TD and 2 INT; 0.9% of his throws were picked off. South Florida returns 1 defensive starter and ranked No. 65 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, so this was not an overwhelming pressure mismatch last year. FIU returns only one starting offensive lineman, raising the degree of difficulty.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.