Category: 2026 Week 1

Kickoff: Friday, September 4 at 5:30 PM CT
Location: Rynearson Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): EMU -3.5
Over/under: 54.5

The setup

Eastern Michigan held Sacramento State to 34 total yards in the first half of its opener. San José State is not guessing whether the Eagles can start fast; it just watched them erase an offense before halftime.

What I’m watching

The clearest matchup edge belongs to San José State’s offense. It ranked No. 26 nationally at 6.5 yards each time it snapped the ball, while Eastern Michigan ranked No. 104 defensively and allowed 6.4. Only 2 starters from that offensive unit return, so the old ranking may not carry cleanly into 2026. Four starters from that defensive unit return. If San José State is getting easy yards on first down, Eastern Michigan will spend the game reacting.

Personnel snapshot

• San José State: Ken Niumatalolo enters Year 3 as head coach. 2 starters return—2 on offense and 0 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Tyler Chen and Joseph Harbert. That offense averaged 402.3 yards and 21.4 points per game last season.
• San José State quarterback: Luke Weaver is projected to start for San José State. Last season at Hawai’i, he threw for 600 yards, 5 TD and 3 INT.
• Eastern Michigan: Chris Creighton enters Year 13 as head coach. 9 starters return—5 on offense and 4 on defense. That offense averaged 377.3 yards and 24.1 points per game last season.
• Eastern Michigan quarterback: Noah Kim returns as Eastern Michigan’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,817 yards, 18 TD and 11 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The running-game test: EMU back Braydon Bennett needs 11 rushing yards for 2,000 in his career. The milestone is almost a rounding error, which makes his first touch count feel unusually loud.
• The roster reset: San José State returns only two players who started six games on offense and one on defense, with 48 newcomers. Eastern already played and won; the Spartans are still handing out introductions on their second road trip.
• New quarterback, immediate test: Luke Weaver transferred from Hawai’i and is expected to make his second start for San José State. Last year he threw for 600 yards, 5 TD and 3 INT; 2.9% of his throws were picked off. Eastern Michigan returns 4 defensive starters and ranked only No. 132 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, giving Weaver a chance to settle in. Getting the ball out before obvious passing downs will be central to the game plan.

How the game is decided

Eastern Michigan has to win first down and force San José State to earn its yards in longer situations. If San José State can run its normal offense without facing third-and-long, the statistical edge should keep showing up. A turnover or special-teams mistake is the defense’s best way to flip it.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium — Salt Lake City, Utah
Kickoff: Thursday, September 3 at 9 p.m. ET on ESPNU
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): Utah -33.5
Over/under: 56.5

The Setup

Utah leads the series 14-12-2, but it has not beaten Idaho since 1964. The Vandals won the last meeting in 1993, so a 33-point underdog is technically defending a 33-year streak.

What I’m Watching

The central question is how quickly Utah’s rebuilt offense settles in. The Utes averaged 43.6 points per game last season but return only two offensive starters. Idaho does not need to match Utah’s depth; it needs to force early punts and keep the number of possessions down.

Personnel Snapshot

Idaho: Thomas Ford enters Year 2 as head coach.

Idaho quarterback: Norfolk State transfer Israel Carter is the most experienced option after throwing for 132 yards and one interception last season.

Utah: Morgan Scalley enters Year 1 with five returning starters—two on offense and three on defense. The defense allowed 359.0 yards and 18.9 points per game.

Utah quarterback: Devon Dampier returns after throwing for 2,180 yards, 22 touchdowns and five interceptions.

Three Quick Analysis Points

1. The rushing test: Utah averaged 266.3 rushing yards per game, second nationally, and allowed only 1.08 sacks per game, ninth. Idaho arrives four days after allowing 38 points in a loss to Cal Poly.

2. The quarterback run threat: Dampier produced 34 touchdowns in 12 games, including 10 on the ground. Backup Byrd Ficklin also ran for 10 scores, so Idaho must account for the quarterback before worrying about the running backs.

3. The scoring trend: Utah scored 41.2 points per game, fourth nationally, and won six times by at least 30. Idaho has already seen a game get away from it this season; now it must prevent another avalanche at altitude.

How the Game Is Decided

Utah’s first job is avoiding three-and-outs while its new offensive pieces settle in. Idaho must turn every early stop into field position or points; empty possessions will eventually let the Utes’ size and depth take over.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Location: Gies Memorial Stadium — Champaign, Illinois
Kickoff: Thursday, September 3 at 9 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): Illinois -28.5
Over/under: 55.5

The Setup

Illinois and UAB have never met, but both arrive with opening-day streaks: Illinois has won nine straight nonconference games, while UAB has won 10 consecutive season openers since 2014. One habit ends Thursday.

What I’m Watching

The clearest matchup edge belongs to Illinois’ offense. It ranked No. 56 nationally at 6.0 yards per play, while UAB ranked No. 123 defensively and allowed 6.7. If the Illini are getting easy yards on first down, the Blazers will spend the night reacting.

Personnel Snapshot

UAB: Alex Mortensen enters Year 2 with three returning starters—two on offense and one on defense. The offense averaged 404.3 yards and 26.6 points per game.

UAB quarterback: Ryder Burton is listed first on the Week 1 depth chart after throwing for 708 yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions.

Illinois: Bret Bielema enters Year 6 with seven returning starters—four on offense and three on defense.

Illinois quarterback: East Carolina transfer Katin Houser is projected to start after throwing for 3,300 yards, 19 touchdowns and six interceptions.

Three Quick Analysis Points

1. The recent surge: Illinois won 19 games over the last two seasons, a school record, and posted back-to-back nine-win seasons for the first time.

2. The home-field edge: Illinois went 12-2 at home over those two seasons, also a program record for a two-year span. UAB’s first Big Ten trip since 2012 lands in a stadium producing its best run of results ever.

3. The quarterback gap: Burton threw for 708 yards last season. Houser arrives with 3,300 yards from East Carolina, giving the favorite far more recent quarterback production.

How the Game Is Decided

UAB has to win first down and force Illinois into longer situations. If the Illini can run their normal offense without facing third-and-long, the statistical edge should keep showing up. A turnover or special-teams mistake is UAB’s best way to flip it.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Location: Bobby Dodd Stadium — Atlanta, Georgia
Kickoff: Thursday, September 3 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): Georgia Tech -6.5
Over/under: 50.5

The Setup

Georgia Tech turned the ball over on each of its first three possessions at Colorado last year and still won 27-20. The rematch begins with an unusual lesson: the Yellow Jackets already survived the mistake pattern that usually ends a game.

What I’m Watching

The clearest matchup edge belongs to Georgia Tech’s offense. It ranked No. 9 nationally at 7.1 yards per play, while Colorado ranked No. 105 defensively and allowed 6.4. Both units have been heavily rebuilt, so the question is whether the same system can recreate last year’s advantage with new personnel.

Personnel Snapshot

Colorado: Deion Sanders enters Year 4 with five returning starters—four on offense and one on defense. The offense averaged 328.4 yards and 23.6 points per game.

Colorado quarterback: Julian Lewis is projected to start after throwing for 589 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions last season.

Georgia Tech: Brent Key enters Year 5 with seven returning starters—two on offense and five on defense.

Georgia Tech quarterback: Indiana transfer Alberto Mendoza is projected to start after throwing for 286 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. He will be handing off to star running backs Justice Haynes and Malachi Hosley a lot.

Three Quick Analysis Points

1. The shared history: This is only meeting No. 2 and Colorado’s first trip to Georgia Tech, but the schools share the 1990 national title. The series is young; the argument connecting them is 36 years old.

2. The defensive challenge: Georgia Tech averaged 460 yards per game, 11th nationally, while Colorado allowed 425.7, No. 121. The Jackets’ rebuilt offense gets a clean question: can its system still punish the same weakness?

3. The quarterback sample: Mendoza threw only 24 passes last season. Colorado returns one defensive starter, so both the new quarterback and rebuilt defense enter with far more questions than answers.

How the Game Is Decided

Colorado has to win first down and force Georgia Tech into longer situations. If the Jackets can run their normal offense without facing third-and-long, the statistical edge should keep showing up. A turnover or special-teams mistake is Colorado’s best way to flip it.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Location: Huntington Bank Stadium — Minneapolis, Minnesota
Kickoff: Thursday, September 3 at 8 p.m. ET on Peacock
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): Minnesota -43.5
Over/under: 51.5

The Setup

Minnesota is 56-2 all-time against current FCS teams and has won eight straight by a combined 377-98—an average score of 47-12. Eastern Illinois is trying to turn a historical speed bump into an actual fourth quarter.

What I’m Watching

The question is how long Eastern Illinois can keep this from becoming a depth game. Minnesota averaged 23.0 points per game last season and returns six offensive starters. A couple of first-half stops would matter much more for the Panthers than trying to match the Gophers play for play.

Personnel Snapshot

Eastern Illinois: Chris Wilkerson enters Year 5 as head coach.

Eastern Illinois quarterback: Cole LaCrue is the most experienced returning passer after throwing for 853 yards, four touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Minnesota: P.J. Fleck enters Year 10 with 11 returning starters—six on offense and five on defense.

Minnesota quarterback: Drake Lindsey returns after throwing for 2,235 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions.

Three Quick Analysis Points

1. The turnover contrast: Lindsey has thrown 153 straight passes without an interception. LaCrue threw seven picks in 148 attempts last year—roughly one every 21 throws.

2. The pressure point: Minnesota averaged three sacks per game, while Eastern Illinois allowed 3.08. Anthony Smith had 12.5 sacks by himself, giving the Panthers a one-man protection problem before the rest of the front is considered.

3. The receiver mismatch: Eastern Illinois lost its top four receivers, and its leading returning pass-catcher had only 18 receptions. Minnesota safety John Nestor returns after six interceptions.

How the Game Is Decided

Eastern Illinois needs a short game: long possessions, no giveaways and one special-teams break. Minnesota needs to stay patient, control the line and avoid the early mistake that gives an underdog belief.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Location: Memorial Stadium — Columbia, Missouri
Kickoff: Thursday, September 3 at 8 p.m. ET on SEC Network
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): Missouri -54.5
Over/under: 60.5

The Setup

Missouri and Arkansas-Pine Bluff have never met. The Golden Lions become the Tigers’ 162nd different opponent, and the first chapter arrives during Memorial Stadium’s centennial celebration.

What I’m Watching

The early question is whether Missouri’s rebuilt defense lets Arkansas-Pine Bluff hang around. The Golden Lions averaged 19.5 points per game last season. Missouri allowed 19.1 but returns only two defensive starters. One long drive or short-field touchdown can create pressure, but only if the underdog avoids giving those points right back.

Personnel Snapshot

Arkansas-Pine Bluff: Alonzo Hampton enters Year 4 as head coach.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff quarterback: Garrison Davis is the most experienced returning passer, although he threw for only 86 yards last season.

Missouri: Eli Drinkwitz enters Year 7 with eight returning starters—six on offense and two on defense. The offense averaged 416.3 yards and 32.8 points per game.

Missouri quarterback: Austin Simmons is projected to start after throwing for 680 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions at Ole Miss.

Three Quick Analysis Points

1. The recent trend: Missouri is 29-10 since 2023, tied for the 12th-best record in the country over that span. The No. 25 ranking comes with a three-year résumé.

2. The night-game streak: The Tigers have won 11 straight home night games and 13 consecutive regular-season night games anywhere. Arkansas-Pine Bluff is opening in Missouri’s most comfortable window.

3. The protection test: Missouri ranked No. 18 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays. Arkansas-Pine Bluff returns no listed starting offensive linemen, making protection the immediate concern.

How the Game Is Decided

Arkansas-Pine Bluff has to test the rebuilt defense immediately and make its first good drive count. Missouri should be fine if it tackles cleanly and avoids short fields, but early mistakes are how a heavy favorite gives an underdog belief. Ahmad Hardy is out and still recovering after suffering a gunshot wound this offseason, but Missouri should be fine without him and needs him healthy for SEC play.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Location: Delaware Stadium — Newark, Delaware
Kickoff: Thursday, September 3 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): Delaware -28.5
Over/under: 55.5

The Setup

Delaware enters Year 2 as an FBS program after becoming only the second team ever to win a bowl in its first FBS season. Merrimack arrives 0-1 after a 34-7 Week 0 loss, so one side already has a new-level trophy and the other has a four-quarter repair list.

What I’m Watching

The question is how long Merrimack can keep this from becoming a depth game. Delaware averaged 29.0 points and 411.6 yards per game last season and returns seven offensive starters. A couple of first-half stops would matter much more for Merrimack than matching Delaware play for play.

Personnel Snapshot

Merrimack: Mike Gennetti enters Year 3 as head coach. Quarterback AJ Hairston Jr. transferred from UMass after throwing for 952 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions last season.

Delaware: Ryan Carty enters Year 5 with 12 returning starters—seven on offense and five on defense.

Delaware quarterback: Nick Minicucci returns after throwing for more than 3,500 yards and 22 touchdowns. He also ran for 10 scores, becoming only the second Delaware quarterback with a 20-pass-touchdown, 10-rush-touchdown season.

Three Quick Analysis Points

1. The home-opener trend: Carty is 23-1 in home openers across his college life as a player and coach. His only loss came in 2004.

2. The quarterback advantage: Minicucci’s production and experience give Delaware a major head start against a Merrimack team already trying to repair its Week 0 offense.

3. The pressure point: Delaware’s three returning offensive linemen allowed only four sacks combined last season. Steven Demboski has not allowed one in his college career.

How the Game Is Decided

Merrimack needs a short game: long possessions, no giveaways and one special-teams break. Delaware needs to stay patient, control the line and avoid the early mistake that gives an underdog belief.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Location: Broadview Stadium — Amherst, New York
Kickoff: Thursday, September 3 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): Buffalo -24.5
Over/under: 48.5

The Setup

Tom Perkovich’s first game at UAlbany comes as a 24.5-point underdog. These teams are tied 1-1 since 2004, and UAlbany won the most recent meeting 22-16 in 2016.

What I’m Watching

Buffalo returns only one offensive starter after averaging 24.0 points per game last season. UAlbany does not need to match the Bulls’ depth; it needs to force a few early punts while the rebuilt offense is still settling in.

Personnel Snapshot

UAlbany: Perkovich enters Year 1 as head coach. Aidan Semo is the most experienced returning passer but threw for only 78 yards last season.

Buffalo: Pete Lembo enters Year 3 with five returning starters—one on offense and four on defense. The defense allowed 343.6 yards and 23.5 points per game.

Buffalo quarterback: The job remains open, with Mason Cumbie the most experienced candidate. That uncertainty puts extra pressure on the running game and protection to create manageable downs.

Three Quick Analysis Points

1. The protection problem: Buffalo allowed a disruptive play on 16.5% of its offensive snaps, No. 126 nationally. A heavily rebuilt offense must show that weakness has been repaired.

2. The pass-rush edge: Buffalo ranked No. 6 nationally with 3.0 sacks per game and finished with 36. UAlbany returns no listed starting offensive linemen.

3. The upset formula: UAlbany needs one repeatable way to move the ball. Isolated big plays will not be enough if most possessions end quickly against Buffalo’s experienced defenders.

How the Game Is Decided

Buffalo’s first job is avoiding three-and-outs while its new offensive pieces settle in. UAlbany must turn every early stop into field position or points before the Bulls’ depth takes over.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Location: Acrisure Bounce House — Orlando, Florida
Kickoff: Thursday, September 3 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): UCF -42.5
Over/under: 59.5

The Setup

UCF is 29-1 against FCS teams since joining the FBS. The only loss was a 16-15 stumble during its 0-12 season in 2015, and the Knights have won nine straight since.

What I’m Watching

The question is how quickly UCF’s rebuilt offense settles in. The Knights averaged 36.2 points per game last season but return only four offensive starters. Bethune-Cookman allowed 33.2 points per game and must force early punts to keep the number of possessions down.

Personnel Snapshot

Bethune-Cookman: Raymond Woodie Jr. enters Year 4 as head coach. Amari Jones is the Wildcats’ most experienced returning passer, but he had no meaningful passing sample last season.

UCF: Scott Frost enters Year 2 with 10 returning starters—four on offense and six on defense. The defense allowed 335.8 yards and 23.6 points per game.

UCF quarterback: Alonza Barnett III has been named the starter after throwing for 2,533 yards and 21 touchdowns at James Madison. He enters with 72 career touchdowns—49 passing and 23 rushing—and College Football Playoff experience.

Three Quick Analysis Points

1. The Thursday trend: UCF has won 11 straight Thursday games and 10 consecutive season openers. Opening night in Orlando has become a program habit.

2. The rebuilt backfield: Only 95 rushing yards return from last year’s roster, but transfers Duke Watson and Landen Chambers combined for 2,204 yards and 19 touchdowns.

3. The settled secondary: UCF finished No. 22 nationally in passing defense at 185.1 yards allowed per game and returns four starters in the secondary.

How the Game Is Decided

UCF’s first job is avoiding three-and-outs while the new offensive pieces settle in. Bethune-Cookman must turn every early stop into field position or points; empty possessions will eventually let the Knights’ size and depth take over.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Location: Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium — Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Kickoff: Thursday, September 3 at 7 p.m. ET on ACC Network
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): Wake Forest -24.5
Over/under: 48.5

The Setup

Wake Forest and Akron have never met, and this is the Demon Deacons’ first game against a MAC opponent since Northern Illinois in 2002. The new series arrives after a 24-year conference gap.

What I’m Watching

The biggest test is whether Akron can move the ball without living in third-and-long. The Zips ranked No. 123 nationally at 5.1 yards per play last season, while Wake Forest’s defense ranked No. 4 and allowed only 4.9. Akron returns six offensive starters; Wake brings back eight defensive starters, so the more familiar unit owns the early advantage.

Personnel Snapshot

Akron: Joe Moorhead enters Year 5 with nine returning starters—six on offense and three on defense. The offense averaged 353.5 yards and 22.3 points per game last season.

Akron quarterback: North Texas transfer Reese Poffenbarger is expected to start after throwing only 10 passes last season.

Wake Forest: Jake Dickert enters Year 2 after winning nine games, the most ever by a first-year Wake Forest coach. Ten starters return, including eight from a defense that allowed 328.5 yards and 21.9 points per game.

Wake Forest quarterback: Gio Lopez is projected to start after throwing for 1,747 yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions at North Carolina.

Three Quick Analysis Points

1. The opener trend: Wake Forest is 10-1 in season openers since 2015 and has won six straight. Akron is fighting both a heavy favorite and an opening-day routine that has failed once in 11 tries.

2. The defensive continuity: Wake returns eight defensive starters. That matters against an Akron quarterback entering with almost no recent passing sample.

3. The field-position test: Akron needs easy offense—a short field, a quarterback run or a quick pass that breaks a tackle. Full-field drives favor Wake’s experienced defense.

How the Game Is Decided

If Wake Forest forces obvious passing downs, its advantage should grow throughout the night. Akron’s upset path begins with first-down efficiency, no giveaways and at least one short-field opportunity.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

 

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.