It has been a while since Tulsa had a winning season.

The Golden Hurricane went 4-8 last year and 1-7 in the American, and they have not finished with a winning record since 2021.

That is the reality.

But there are reasons to think Tulsa can be better in year two under Tre Lamb.

The biggest reason is at quarterback.

Baylor Hayes got real experience last season. He was not perfect. No freshman quarterback is. But he played, he took some lumps, he showed some ability, and now Tulsa gets to build around a quarterback who is no longer walking into everything for the first time.

That matters.

In an American that feels pretty open, Tulsa does not need to suddenly become a conference title favorite to have a successful season.

The Golden Hurricane just need to take a step.

A bowl game would be a real step.

HEAD COACH:

• Tre Lamb, entering year two at Tulsa
• Tulsa went 4-8 last season.
• The Golden Hurricane finished 1-7 in the American.
• Tulsa has not had a winning season since 2021.
• Tulsa averaged 27.1 points per game last season.

Lamb’s first year was about trying to build a foundation.

Tulsa had moments last year. The win over Oklahoma State was the obvious one. Beating the Cowboys 19-12 in Stillwater gave the season a legitimate highlight and showed what this team could be when it played clean, tough football.

But there were also plenty of reminders that Tulsa still had work to do.

The offense averaged 27.1 points per game and 388 yards per game, which is not terrible. The yardage was actually respectable. But the scoring still needed to be better, and the defense gave up too much.

Opponents averaged 30.9 points per game and 409 yards per game.

That makes life hard.

Tulsa also finished minus-9 in turnover margin, one of the worst marks in the country. That is the kind of number that can swing a season. If the Golden Hurricane simply clean that up, they can be more competitive.

That is the whole year-two challenge.

Be cleaner.

Be tougher.

Stop giving games away.

QUARTERBACK:

This is where Tulsa has something to work with.

Baylor Hayes is back after completing about 59% of his passes last season with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions.

For a young quarterback on a four-win team, that is not a bad starting point.

The advanced numbers show the next step pretty clearly.

When Hayes had a clean pocket, he completed about 65% of his passes with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Under pressure, that dropped to about 45%, with three touchdowns and three interceptions.

That is normal.

Most young quarterbacks look different when the picture gets muddy.

The important part is that Hayes now has experience. He has seen American defenses. He has played in big moments. He has had to make throws when things are not perfect.

The deep-ball numbers are interesting too.

Hayes went 20-of-57 on deep throws with one touchdown and one interception. You would like the completion percentage to be higher, but I like that Tulsa let him push the ball down the field. That experience matters.

Now the question is whether the game slows down.

Can Hayes get to the right read faster? Can he avoid the negative plays? Can he improve against pressure? Can he turn some of those deep incompletions into explosive plays?

If he can, Tulsa’s offense has a chance to be better than people expect.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense has some new pieces to sort through.

The offensive line has Cam East back, which gives Tulsa at least one known piece up front. That matters because Hayes needs better protection and the run game needs to become more dependable.

The backfield should have options.

Trequan Jones comes in from Old Dominion after rushing for more than 700 yards last season. Damari Alston comes in from Auburn after spending four years with the Tigers.

Those two should lead the running back group.

That is important because Tulsa cannot put everything on Hayes. The Golden Hurricane need a run game that takes pressure off the quarterback and keeps the offense from living in obvious passing downs.

At receiver, David Wells Jr. is one of the biggest additions. He comes in from Oregon State after catching 44 passes last season.

That is real production.

Tulsa needed somebody who could walk in and immediately give Hayes a trusted target. Wells has a chance to be that guy.

Josh Smith is also back after catching nine passes last season. His role could grow, especially if defenses start paying extra attention to Wells.

The offense does not need to be elite.

But it does need to be more efficient.

Tulsa already moved the ball at a decent rate last season. The next step is finishing drives, avoiding turnovers and giving Hayes a better structure around him.

If Jones and Alston can stabilize the run game, and Wells becomes the lead receiver, the offense could be good enough to keep Tulsa in a lot of games.

DEFENSE

The defense may have more proven answers than the offense.

That does not mean it was good enough last season.

Tulsa gave up nearly 31 points per game and more than 400 yards per game. Opponents ran the ball on 57.5% of their plays, averaged more than 4 yards per carry, and finished with about 186 rushing yards per game.

That has to change.

The good news is that Tulsa has some important pieces back.

Tai Newhouse returns on the defensive line. William Alexander is back at linebacker. The secondary has a lot of names with experience, including JD Drew, Elijah Green, Devin Robinson and Zach Williams.

That is a strong starting point for a defense trying to make a jump.

The secondary especially should give Tulsa a chance to be more competitive. If the Golden Hurricane can cover better and force teams into longer drives, the defense can improve quickly.

The front still needs to be better against the run.

That is where the transfers could matter.

Thomas Davis comes in from App State. Arias Nash transfers in from Virginia Tech. Kyran Duhon is a Hurricane after being at Oklahoma State. Those are the kinds of additions Tulsa needs if it wants to become more physical up front.

The defense does not have to become dominant.

But it cannot keep allowing 30-plus points every week.

If Tulsa can get closer to average defensively and clean up the turnover margin, this team’s record could look very different.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is not easy.

Tulsa opens at home against Oklahoma State on Sept. 5. That is a huge game right away, especially after the Golden Hurricane beat the Cowboys last season.

The difference is Oklahoma State should look different now with Eric Morris and Drew Mestemaker coming over from North Texas. That is not the same Oklahoma State situation Tulsa caught last year when Mike Gundy’s tenure was hanging on by a thread.

After that, Tulsa goes to Sam Houston, hosts East Texas A&M, then goes to Arkansas.

That is a tough September.

Playing Oklahoma State and Arkansas in the first four weeks is not easy for a team trying to build confidence.

American play starts with North Texas at home on Oct. 1. Then Tulsa goes to Navy and Rice, hosts Army, gets Tulane on the road, then finishes with home games against Florida Atlantic and Charlotte before closing at UTSA.

The road schedule is the problem.

Arkansas, Navy, Rice, Tulane and UTSA are all away from home.

That is a lot.

The stretch from Arkansas to Navy to Rice to Tulane is especially tough. Tulsa also has to deal with Army’s style in the middle of conference play, and nobody enjoys preparing for that.

The good news is there are home opportunities.

North Texas is rebuilding. Florida Atlantic and Charlotte are at home. East Texas A&M should be a win. Sam Houston is a road game, but it is one Tulsa has to view as winnable.

The schedule is not impossible.

But it does not give Tulsa much room for mistakes.

OUTLOOK

I think Tulsa can be better.

That does not mean I am ready to call the Golden Hurricane a bowl team.

There are still concerns.

The defense has to improve. The turnover margin has to swing. The run game has to give Hayes more help. The new receivers and backs have to fit quickly. The schedule has some rough road trips.

But there is a path.

The best-case scenario is that Baylor Hayes takes a clear sophomore jump, Trequan Jones and Damari Alston stabilize the backfield, David Wells Jr. becomes the top receiver, and the defense improves with all that experience in the secondary.

If that happens, Tulsa can absolutely push toward a bowl.

The worst-case scenario is that Hayes is still too inconsistent under pressure, the run game does not help enough, the defense keeps getting pushed around, and the road schedule beats this team down before November.

Tulsa is probably still at least a year away from being truly dangerous in the American.

But the Golden Hurricane should be more competitive.

Hayes gives them a reason to believe. The defense has enough returning pieces to be better. The transfer additions make sense. And year two under Lamb should look cleaner than year one.