Category: American

East Carolina had one of the quieter good seasons in college football last year.

That sounds strange to say about a team that went 9-4 and 6-2 in the American, but it is true.

The league had so many headline teams that ECU almost got pushed into the background. Tulane made the playoff. Navy was one of the best stories in the country. South Florida won at Florida and looked dangerous. Memphis was in the race for a while. North Texas played for the league title.

And there were the Pirates, just winning games.

Now the question is whether they can do it again.

ECU is coming off a nine-win season, but this roster looks different. Katin Houser is gone to Illinois. The offense lost major pieces. The defense has only a few returning starters. The Pirates are trying to chase their first back-to-back nine-win seasons in school history while replacing a lot of what made last year work.

That makes this one of the more interesting teams in the American.

HEAD COACH

• Blake Harrell, entering his second full season as East Carolina’s head coach
• The Pirates finished 6-2 in the American last season.
• Harrell is 14-5 at ECU.
• East Carolina has won seven or more games in four of the last five seasons.

Harrell has done a really good job.

East Carolina was not treated like one of the biggest stories in the American last season, but the Pirates won nine games and were a legitimate factor in the league.

Now comes the harder part.

Can ECU sustain it?

The Pirates averaged 30.8 points per game last season, which ranked near the top 25 nationally. They averaged more than 440 yards per game, which was even better. They also ran the ball a ton, ranking near the top 10 nationally in rush attempts per game.

That was the identity.

Move the ball. Run it. Stay efficient. Put pressure on defenses.

But a lot of that offense is gone.

So this season is not just about whether ECU can be good again.

It is about whether Harrell has built something that can survive turnover.

QUARTERBACK

This is the biggest question on the roster.

Katin Houser is gone, and that is a big deal. He gave East Carolina stability at quarterback and helped the Pirates become one of the better offenses in the American.

Now the job appears to come down to Emory Williams and Mitch Griffis.

Williams comes from Miami, where he played sparingly. He completed about 63% of his passes with 813 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions.

That is not a huge sample.

But it is something.

Griffis brings more experience. He previously played at Wake Forest and Texas Tech, and his career numbers are more complete. He has thrown for more than 2,300 yards with 17 touchdowns and eight interceptions, completing about 61% of his passes.

That experience matters.

ECU is not starting over with a quarterback who has never been in a college game. Both options have been in Power Four programs. Both were recruited at a high level. Both have seen what major college football looks like.

That does not guarantee anything.

But it gives ECU options.

Williams may have more untapped upside. Griffis may give them the steadier floor. Either way, East Carolina needs one of them to win the job and settle the offense quickly.

This cannot become a season-long quarterback drama.

The Pirates have too many new pieces for that.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense begins with Brock Spalding.

He is the only returning starter on that side of the ball, and he has to become even more important this season.

Spalding had 42 catches for 554 yards and three touchdowns last year. Before that, he had only nine catches over the previous three seasons.

So last year was his breakout.

Now ECU needs him to prove it was not a one-year flash.

That is a big ask, but it is also a big opportunity. Spalding should be the first read for whoever wins the quarterback job. He gives the Pirates at least one proven target, and that is important with so much change around him.

The rest of the receiver room has been rebuilt.

Ray Ray Joseph Jr. comes in from Miami. Jeremiah Melvin comes in from Wake Forest. Landon Sides comes in from North Texas. Those are three interesting additions, and they give ECU a chance to build a completely new rotation around Spalding.

The running back room is also new.

Ashton Gray comes in from North Texas, and Michael Allen comes in from Marshall. Gray is especially intriguing because of how he finished last season. He had 16 carries for 152 yards and two touchdowns against San Diego State in the New Mexico Bowl, and that was not against a bad defense.

That kind of finish gets people’s attention.

Allen has moved around, but he has real experience too. ECU does not need one of these backs to become a superstar right away. It just needs the run game to stay dangerous enough to keep the offense balanced.

The offensive line is another reset.

The Pirates lost some high-end talent up front, including all-conference and All-American-level players. Brandon Best and Hayes Creel are two of the names expected to help rebuild the line.

That may be the key to everything.

Last year, ECU could run the ball and control games. If the offensive line takes a step back, the new quarterback has a much harder job. If the line comes together quickly, the Pirates have enough skill talent to still be dangerous.

DEFENSE

The defense has a few known pieces, but not a lot.

Jasiyah Robinson is back on the defensive line, and DJ Johnson Jr. is back at linebacker. Those are the two returning starters to build around.

Johnson is especially important because he brings production and experience in the middle of the defense. Robinson gives ECU a starting point up front.

But the Pirates lost a lot.

That means the transfer additions have to matter quickly.

Kevon Merrell Jr. is back in the secondary after coming up with an interception in the Military Bowl, and ECU added several defensive backs to reshape the back end. Zyeir Gamble comes in from App State, and there are other new pieces who could factor into the rotation.

At linebacker, Cade Law and Crews Law come over from Memphis after starting their careers at North Carolina. That gives ECU more Power Four-connected talent in the middle of the defense.

This unit was good enough last year.

Opponents averaged 21.5 points per game and 367 yards per game. That is a solid defensive profile, especially in a league with several good offenses.

But the question is whether it can stay there with so many new faces.

The Pirates do not need the defense to be elite.

They need it to avoid falling off.

If ECU’s defense stays solid while the offense figures itself out, the Pirates can stay in the top half of the American. If the defense slips early, the schedule could become a problem.

SCHEDULE

The schedule starts with a monster.

East Carolina opens at Alabama.

That is a brutal way to begin a season with a new quarterback and a rebuilt roster. The Pirates do not need to be judged solely by that game, but they do need to come out of it healthy and organized.

After Alabama, ECU hosts App State, then goes to Old Dominion. Two of the first three games are on the road, and both road games are tricky for very different reasons.

Then the Pirates host North Carolina Central before getting into American play.

The league schedule begins with Rice on Oct. 10. Then ECU goes to UAB on Oct. 15 and Memphis on Oct. 22, giving the Pirates back-to-back Thursday road games. That is not easy.

After that, ECU hosts Temple on Halloween, then hosts South Florida on Nov. 6.

That South Florida game could be a big one in the American race.

The closing stretch includes back-to-back road games at Charlotte and Army, then the regular-season finale against Florida Atlantic.

There are a few schedule concerns.

Two of the first three are on the road. Four of the first seven are away from home. The Pirates have multiple non-Saturday games. And the November road swing to Charlotte and Army is not ideal.

The schedule is not impossible.

But for a team replacing this much, it is not exactly friendly either.

OUTLOOK

I like East Carolina.

I just do not think this is an easy season to project.

The Pirates were really good last year. Nine wins. Six league wins. A good offense. A solid defense. A team that probably deserved more attention than it got.

But now they have to replace the quarterback, rebuild the running game, reshape the offensive line, find more receivers around Spalding, and replace a lot on defense.

That is a lot.

The best-case scenario is that Emory Williams or Mitch Griffis wins the quarterback job quickly, Brock Spalding becomes a true No. 1 receiver, Ashton Gray gives the offense a real lead back, and the rebuilt offensive line comes together faster than expected.

If that happens, ECU can stay in the American race.

The worst-case scenario is that the quarterback battle drags, the offensive line takes too long to settle, the run game loses its edge, and the defense cannot replace enough production to keep games manageable.

That is possible too.

Last year’s team was better than people realized.

This year’s team has more questions than people may realize.

That does not mean ECU is going away.

It just means the Pirates have to prove they can reload, not rebuild.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

There may not be a more interesting team in the American that people are not talking enough about.

UTSA has a returning quarterback.

It has a proven offense.

It has three offensive linemen back.

It has multiple receivers back.

It has a head coach who basically never loses at home in conference play.

And yet the Roadrunners do not seem to be getting the same attention as some of the other teams at the top of the American.

That feels like a mistake.

UTSA went 7-6 last season and 4-4 in the American, so the record does not jump off the page. But this is a program that has not had a losing season under Jeff Traylor. The Roadrunners have not had a losing season since 2019, the year before Traylor arrived.

And here is the number that matters most.

Traylor is 25-1 at the Alamodome in conference play.

That is ridiculous.

It is extremely hard to beat UTSA in San Antonio. If the Roadrunners can clean up some of the defensive issues and avoid the penalty problems that hurt them last year, they can absolutely be in the American title race.

HEAD COACH

• Jeff Traylor, entering year seven at UTSA
• Traylor is 53-26 with the Roadrunners.
• UTSA went 7-6 last season.
• The Roadrunners finished 4-4 in the American.
• UTSA has not had a losing season since 2019.

Traylor has built one of the most stable programs in the American.

That matters in this league.

There are a lot of teams replacing quarterbacks. There are teams changing coaches. There are teams trying to figure out what they are going to be.

UTSA already knows.

The Roadrunners are going to score. They are going to play fast enough to stress you. They are going to be balanced. And if you have to go play them in the Alamodome, good luck.

The offense averaged 34.5 points per game last season, which ranked near the top of the country. UTSA also averaged 417 yards per game and was almost perfectly balanced, throwing it on 51% of its plays and running it on 49%.

That is what makes this offense so difficult.

It is not just a passing team.

It is not just a running team.

It can do both.

The defense is the question. Opponents averaged 29.6 points per game and 375 yards per game. That is not terrible, but it is not good enough if UTSA wants to win the American.

The penalties were another issue. UTSA was one of the most penalized teams in the country last season, both in total flags and penalty yards.

That has to get cleaned up.

If it does, this team could be better than the preseason conversation suggests.

QUARTERBACK

This is where UTSA starts.

Owen McCown is back.

And that is a huge deal.

McCown completed 67% of his passes last season for 2,995 yards, 30 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. In a league where a lot of the top teams are replacing quarterbacks, UTSA has one of the best returning passers in the conference.

That alone gives the Roadrunners a chance.

The advanced numbers are even more interesting.

When McCown had a clean pocket, he was excellent. He completed 73% of his throws with 25 touchdowns and only three interceptions.

That is high-level quarterback play.

If you let him sit back there and see it, he will pick you apart.

The next step is handling pressure better.

Under pressure, McCown’s completion percentage dropped to 47%, with five touchdowns and four interceptions. That is not shocking. Most quarterbacks look different when the pocket collapses.

But if McCown can improve there, UTSA’s offense becomes even more dangerous.

The deep-ball numbers were solid too. McCown went 14-of-39 on deep throws with six touchdowns and one interception. That tells you he is not just a checkdown quarterback. He can stretch the field, and UTSA is willing to let him do it.

There may not be many quarterbacks in the American with a better combination of production, experience and supporting cast.

That is why UTSA has to be taken seriously.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense lost its leading receiver, Devin McCuin, but there is still plenty back.

David Amador II returns after catching 45 passes for 443 yards. AJ Wilson is also back after finishing with 31 catches for 528 yards. Those two combined for more than 900 receiving yards last season, and they give McCown two proven options on the outside.

That matters.

A returning quarterback is valuable.

A returning quarterback with familiar receivers is even better.

DJ Allen Jr. is also back after catching 20 passes for 189 yards, and Miles Campbell comes in from Florida A&M after catching 22 passes for 308 yards last season.

So the receiving group has answers.

Maybe not one obvious superstar, but enough pieces to keep the passing game efficient.

The backfield has Will Henderson III, who made two starts last season and rushed for 866 yards. If he can give UTSA a dependable lead back, this offense becomes very hard to defend.

That is the key.

McCown can throw it. The receivers can make plays. But if Henderson helps keep the offense balanced, defenses cannot just sit back and play coverage.

The offensive line should help too.

Darrell Jones, Deandre Marshall and Ben Rios are all back up front. That gives UTSA a strong foundation for an offense that already ranked among the best in the country.

There is no reason to overthink this side of the ball.

UTSA is going to move it.

The Roadrunners averaged nearly 35 points per game last season, and with McCown back, the expectation should be another strong offense.

If anything, the question is whether this group can become one of the very best offenses in the Group of Five.

The answer might be yes.

DEFENSE

This is the side that decides the season.

The offense should be good enough to win the American.

The defense has to prove it will not keep UTSA from doing it.

Only about 35% of the defensive snaps return, and that creates real uncertainty.

The two biggest returning pieces are Tai Leonard and Owen Pewee.

Leonard had 16 tackles and 2.5 sacks last season. Pewee had 31 tackles. They give UTSA something to build around in the front seven, but the Roadrunners need more than just a couple of returning names.

Camron Cooper is also back after getting injured early last season. If he is healthy, that could be a major boost at linebacker.

The secondary has some interesting pieces, including brothers Asaad Chapman and Ahamad Chapman. That group will matter because UTSA is going to play teams that can throw it.

But the defense cannot just survive through the air.

It has to be more consistent across the board.

UTSA gave up almost 30 points per game last season. The yardage numbers were closer to average, but the scoring was still too high.

That is the difference between being a good American team and being a championship team.

If UTSA is giving up 30 every week, the offense has to be nearly perfect.

That is a hard way to live.

If the defense can just become solid, this team becomes dangerous.

It does not have to be elite.

It just has to be good enough.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is the part that makes this tricky.

UTSA opens with UTRGV, then plays three of its next four games on the road: at Texas State, at Texas and at Rice. The only home game in that stretch is Colorado State.

That is not an easy opening month.

Texas State is a rivalry-type game. Texas is obviously a huge challenge. Rice is a conference road game. By the end of September, we should know a lot about this team.

Then comes the biggest stretch of the season.

UTSA hosts South Florida on Oct. 8, then hosts Navy nine days later. After that, the Roadrunners go to Tulane on Oct. 24.

That is brutal.

South Florida, Navy and Tulane could all be American title contenders. UTSA may be one too. That three-game stretch could shape the entire league race.

The good news is South Florida and Navy both have to come to the Alamodome.

That matters.

The bad news is the Tulane game is on the road, and Tulane should be more settled by late October than it will be early in the season.

After that, UTSA goes to Florida Atlantic, hosts North Texas, goes to UAB, and finishes at home against Tulsa.

That means UTSA has two stretches where it plays three of four away from home.

The first one is Texas State, Texas and Rice.

The second one is Tulane, Florida Atlantic and UAB.

That is not ideal.

The home games are the key. If UTSA protects the Alamodome again, the Roadrunners can be in the race. If they drop one or two home games, the road schedule becomes a much bigger problem.

OUTLOOK

I like UTSA a lot.

Maybe more than most people do.

This team has the thing that so many teams in the American are searching for: a proven quarterback.

Owen McCown gives the Roadrunners a high floor. David Amador II, AJ Wilson and DJ Allen Jr. give him familiar targets. Will Henderson III gives the offense a real backfield option. The offensive line has three important pieces back.

The offense should be one of the best in the league.

The concern is the defense and the schedule.

UTSA has to replace a lot defensively. It has to get better at preventing points. It has to stop committing so many penalties. And it has to survive a schedule that includes multiple difficult road stretches.

The best-case scenario is that McCown becomes the best quarterback in the American, the offense pushes toward 35 points per game again, the defense improves just enough, and UTSA keeps being almost impossible to beat at home.

If that happens, the Roadrunners can win the American.

They can even get into the playoff conversation if the rest of the league breaks right.

The worst-case scenario is that the defense is too thin, the penalties keep showing up, and the road schedule knocks them around before November.

My gut?

UTSA is being underrated.

Maybe not ignored completely.

But underrated.

In a league with so much quarterback turnover, the Roadrunners have one of the best returning quarterbacks in the conference. They have a coach who has never had a losing season at UTSA. They have a home-field advantage that is as real as any in the American.

That is a pretty good place to start.

If the defense is even average, UTSA is not just a bowl team.

It is an American championship contender.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Things feel different at UAB.

They had to.

The Trent Dilfer era did not work. UAB tried something bold. It tried something different. It tried to create energy with a name people knew.

Instead, the Blazers went backward.

UAB finished 4-8 last season and 2-6 in the American. The program has not had a winning season since 2022, and the Blazers are 11-25 since that year.

That is not where this program expected to be.

Now Alex Mortensen gets his first full year as head coach after taking over during last season. He went 2-4 after stepping into the job, but one of those wins was a huge one: a 31-24 upset of Memphis that shook up the Group of Five playoff race.

That game showed what UAB could look like.

The question is whether the Blazers can make that version show up more often.

HEAD COACH

• Alex Mortensen, entering his first full season as UAB’s head coach
• UAB went 4-8 last season.
• The Blazers finished 2-6 in the American.
• UAB has not had a winning season since 2022.
• The Blazers averaged 24.1 points per game last season.

Mortensen has a chance to reset the tone.

That matters.

UAB needed a fresh start. The last couple of years felt messy. The results were not good enough, and the program lost the momentum it had built.

Mortensen now gets an offseason to run the program his way.

The players seemed to respond to him late last season. The Memphis win mattered. It gave UAB something real to build on and proved the Blazers were still capable of playing winning football when things clicked.

But one win does not fix everything.

UAB averaged 24.1 points per game last season and 394 yards per game. The yardage was actually solid. The scoring did not match it.

That tells you the offense moved the ball, but did not finish enough drives.

The bigger problem was balance.

UAB threw the ball on 55% of its plays, one of the highest rates in the country. The Blazers averaged 37 passes per game, also near the top nationally.

Some of that was by choice.

A lot of it was because they were behind.

That has to change.

If UAB wants to be better, it has to stop chasing games.

QUARTERBACK

Ryder Burton gives UAB something to work with.

He is back at quarterback after completing 63% of his passes last season with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. He played meaningful snaps in three games, and the best one came in the biggest moment.

Against Memphis, Burton threw for 251 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in the upset win.

That matters.

He has already seen good things happen in a UAB uniform. He has already played in a game where the offense looked dangerous and the Blazers beat one of the better teams in the American.

Now he has to prove he can do it over a full season.

The turnover number is worth watching.

UAB had nearly two giveaways per game last season, ranking near the bottom of the country. Burton was not responsible for all of that, but as the quarterback, he has to be part of fixing it.

This offense cannot afford empty possessions.

It cannot afford short fields for the other team.

It cannot afford to make life harder on a defense that already had major problems.

Burton does not have to become a star. But he has to be steady, accurate and careful with the ball.

If he is, UAB has a chance to be better offensively than the record suggests.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense starts up front.

Adam Lepkowski and Calib Perez are the two returning starters on offense, and both are offensive linemen. That gives UAB at least some stability in the middle of the offense.

That is important because the Blazers need to run the ball better.

The most interesting newcomer is Rod Robinson II, the Georgia transfer.

Robinson is a big back, around 235 pounds, and he never really got a major chance in a loaded Georgia backfield. He had 34 carries for 221 yards and two touchdowns in three seasons with the Bulldogs.

Now he should get a real opportunity.

UAB needs him to be more than just a transfer name.

The Blazers need him to be a physical presence. They need him to take pressure off Burton. They need him to help this offense stop living through the air every week.

If Robinson becomes the lead back, the whole offense can look different.

The tight end spot has some promise with Antonio Ferguson, who is one of the more interesting names to watch on the roster. He could become a helpful piece for Burton, especially if the receiver room takes time to sort itself out.

And that receiver room is a major question.

Kaleb Brown had a spring ankle injury, and UAB has to figure out who becomes the reliable target in this offense. There are names with ability, but the Blazers need production. They need somebody who can win consistently. They need somebody Burton trusts on third down.

DEFENSE

This is where everything has to change.

UAB’s defense was a problem last season.

The Blazers gave up 32.9 points per game and 415 yards per game. Opponents ran the ball on 62% of their plays, one of the highest rates in the country, and threw it only about 37% of the time.

That tells you everything.

Teams did not need to throw.

They got ahead.

They ran the ball.

Todd Grantham is the new defensive coordinator, and whatever people think of his past stops, UAB needed a major change on that side of the ball. The Blazers almost cannot be worse defensively, especially against the run.

The top returning starter is Delvon Gulley in the secondary.

In fact, he is the only returning defensive starter, so there is a lot to rebuild.

At linebacker, Ike Esonwune comes in from Oklahoma State after making 31 tackles. He could become a key piece right away. UAB needs linebackers who can tackle cleanly and help slow down the run game.

Up front, Nigel Tate is an important name if he is healthy. He dealt with an Achilles injury last season, but he was expected to be a major part of the defensive line.

The secondary also adds Darrell Sweeting from Marshall, and he could be someone to watch in the back end.

But this defense is not about one or two names.

It is about whether the whole unit can become more physical.

UAB cannot get run on 62% of the time again. It cannot keep giving up long drives. It cannot keep asking the offense to chase points.

The Blazers need to force more uncomfortable possessions.

They need to create more negative plays.

They need to make teams throw because they have to, not because they feel like it.

That is the biggest fix on the roster.

SCHEDULE

The schedule starts with two major tests.

UAB opens at Illinois on Sept. 5, then hosts Louisiana-Monroe on Sept. 12. After that, the Blazers go to Louisiana before hosting Navy and Samford.

That is not an easy September.

Illinois is a tough opener. Louisiana on the road is tricky. Navy is never fun to prepare for. And Samford, an FCS program right there in Birmingham, would love nothing more than to make that game uncomfortable.

The good news is UAB does not have back-to-back road trips.

That helps.

The bad news is the American schedule has several tough spots.

The Blazers go to Memphis on Oct. 10, then host East Carolina five days later. That is a tough turnaround after a rivalry-style road game.

After that, they get 16 days before playing at South Florida on Halloween. Then they host Charlotte, go to Temple, host UTSA, and finish at North Texas.

There are chances here.

Louisiana-Monroe, Samford, Charlotte and Temple are games UAB has to view as opportunities. If the Blazers can steal one of the tougher conference games, the path to improvement is there.

But the schedule is not going to hand them a bowl.

UAB has to earn it.

OUTLOOK

I think UAB will be more interesting than last year.

That does not mean I am ready to call the Blazers good.

There is too much to fix.

The defense was bad. The turnover problem was bad. The offense threw too much because the team was behind too often. There are only three returning starters. The receiver room is unsettled. The schedule starts with real challenges.

But there are reasons for optimism.

Alex Mortensen gets a full offseason. Ryder Burton has already shown he can win a big game. Rod Robinson II gives UAB a potential workhorse back. Adam Lepkowski and Calib Perez give the offensive line a starting point. Todd Grantham should at least bring a different defensive structure. And the players seemed to respond once the program moved on from the previous era.

The best-case scenario is that Burton becomes a steady starter, Robinson gives UAB the run game it badly needs, the offensive line holds up, one or two receivers emerge, and the defense jumps from awful to at least functional.

If that happens, UAB can push toward a bowl.

The worst-case scenario is that the run defense is still a problem, the offense keeps turning it over, the receiver room never settles, and the schedule exposes how much rebuilding still has to be done.

My gut?

UAB should be better.

But better may not mean bowl team yet.

This feels like a year about stabilizing the program, rebuilding trust and proving the Blazers can look organized again.

That may not sound exciting, but for UAB, it matters.

The program needs energy again.

It needs a reason to believe again.

And if Mortensen can turn that Memphis upset from a one-game flash into a foundation, UAB might start moving back toward what it was not that long ago: a tough, physical program nobody in the league wanted to play.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

It has been a while since Tulsa had a winning season.

The Golden Hurricane went 4-8 last year and 1-7 in the American, and they have not finished with a winning record since 2021.

That is the reality.

But there are reasons to think Tulsa can be better in year two under Tre Lamb.

The biggest reason is at quarterback.

Baylor Hayes got real experience last season. He was not perfect. No freshman quarterback is. But he played, he took some lumps, he showed some ability, and now Tulsa gets to build around a quarterback who is no longer walking into everything for the first time.

That matters.

In an American that feels pretty open, Tulsa does not need to suddenly become a conference title favorite to have a successful season.

The Golden Hurricane just need to take a step.

A bowl game would be a real step.

HEAD COACH:

• Tre Lamb, entering year two at Tulsa
• Tulsa went 4-8 last season.
• The Golden Hurricane finished 1-7 in the American.
• Tulsa has not had a winning season since 2021.
• Tulsa averaged 27.1 points per game last season.

Lamb’s first year was about trying to build a foundation.

Tulsa had moments last year. The win over Oklahoma State was the obvious one. Beating the Cowboys 19-12 in Stillwater gave the season a legitimate highlight and showed what this team could be when it played clean, tough football.

But there were also plenty of reminders that Tulsa still had work to do.

The offense averaged 27.1 points per game and 388 yards per game, which is not terrible. The yardage was actually respectable. But the scoring still needed to be better, and the defense gave up too much.

Opponents averaged 30.9 points per game and 409 yards per game.

That makes life hard.

Tulsa also finished minus-9 in turnover margin, one of the worst marks in the country. That is the kind of number that can swing a season. If the Golden Hurricane simply clean that up, they can be more competitive.

That is the whole year-two challenge.

Be cleaner.

Be tougher.

Stop giving games away.

QUARTERBACK:

This is where Tulsa has something to work with.

Baylor Hayes is back after completing about 59% of his passes last season with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions.

For a young quarterback on a four-win team, that is not a bad starting point.

The advanced numbers show the next step pretty clearly.

When Hayes had a clean pocket, he completed about 65% of his passes with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Under pressure, that dropped to about 45%, with three touchdowns and three interceptions.

That is normal.

Most young quarterbacks look different when the picture gets muddy.

The important part is that Hayes now has experience. He has seen American defenses. He has played in big moments. He has had to make throws when things are not perfect.

The deep-ball numbers are interesting too.

Hayes went 20-of-57 on deep throws with one touchdown and one interception. You would like the completion percentage to be higher, but I like that Tulsa let him push the ball down the field. That experience matters.

Now the question is whether the game slows down.

Can Hayes get to the right read faster? Can he avoid the negative plays? Can he improve against pressure? Can he turn some of those deep incompletions into explosive plays?

If he can, Tulsa’s offense has a chance to be better than people expect.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense has some new pieces to sort through.

The offensive line has Cam East back, which gives Tulsa at least one known piece up front. That matters because Hayes needs better protection and the run game needs to become more dependable.

The backfield should have options.

Trequan Jones comes in from Old Dominion after rushing for more than 700 yards last season. Damari Alston comes in from Auburn after spending four years with the Tigers.

Those two should lead the running back group.

That is important because Tulsa cannot put everything on Hayes. The Golden Hurricane need a run game that takes pressure off the quarterback and keeps the offense from living in obvious passing downs.

At receiver, David Wells Jr. is one of the biggest additions. He comes in from Oregon State after catching 44 passes last season.

That is real production.

Tulsa needed somebody who could walk in and immediately give Hayes a trusted target. Wells has a chance to be that guy.

Josh Smith is also back after catching nine passes last season. His role could grow, especially if defenses start paying extra attention to Wells.

The offense does not need to be elite.

But it does need to be more efficient.

Tulsa already moved the ball at a decent rate last season. The next step is finishing drives, avoiding turnovers and giving Hayes a better structure around him.

If Jones and Alston can stabilize the run game, and Wells becomes the lead receiver, the offense could be good enough to keep Tulsa in a lot of games.

DEFENSE

The defense may have more proven answers than the offense.

That does not mean it was good enough last season.

Tulsa gave up nearly 31 points per game and more than 400 yards per game. Opponents ran the ball on 57.5% of their plays, averaged more than 4 yards per carry, and finished with about 186 rushing yards per game.

That has to change.

The good news is that Tulsa has some important pieces back.

Tai Newhouse returns on the defensive line. William Alexander is back at linebacker. The secondary has a lot of names with experience, including JD Drew, Elijah Green, Devin Robinson and Zach Williams.

That is a strong starting point for a defense trying to make a jump.

The secondary especially should give Tulsa a chance to be more competitive. If the Golden Hurricane can cover better and force teams into longer drives, the defense can improve quickly.

The front still needs to be better against the run.

That is where the transfers could matter.

Thomas Davis comes in from App State. Arias Nash transfers in from Virginia Tech. Kyran Duhon is a Hurricane after being at Oklahoma State. Those are the kinds of additions Tulsa needs if it wants to become more physical up front.

The defense does not have to become dominant.

But it cannot keep allowing 30-plus points every week.

If Tulsa can get closer to average defensively and clean up the turnover margin, this team’s record could look very different.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is not easy.

Tulsa opens at home against Oklahoma State on Sept. 5. That is a huge game right away, especially after the Golden Hurricane beat the Cowboys last season.

The difference is Oklahoma State should look different now with Eric Morris and Drew Mestemaker coming over from North Texas. That is not the same Oklahoma State situation Tulsa caught last year when Mike Gundy’s tenure was hanging on by a thread.

After that, Tulsa goes to Sam Houston, hosts East Texas A&M, then goes to Arkansas.

That is a tough September.

Playing Oklahoma State and Arkansas in the first four weeks is not easy for a team trying to build confidence.

American play starts with North Texas at home on Oct. 1. Then Tulsa goes to Navy and Rice, hosts Army, gets Tulane on the road, then finishes with home games against Florida Atlantic and Charlotte before closing at UTSA.

The road schedule is the problem.

Arkansas, Navy, Rice, Tulane and UTSA are all away from home.

That is a lot.

The stretch from Arkansas to Navy to Rice to Tulane is especially tough. Tulsa also has to deal with Army’s style in the middle of conference play, and nobody enjoys preparing for that.

The good news is there are home opportunities.

North Texas is rebuilding. Florida Atlantic and Charlotte are at home. East Texas A&M should be a win. Sam Houston is a road game, but it is one Tulsa has to view as winnable.

The schedule is not impossible.

But it does not give Tulsa much room for mistakes.

OUTLOOK

I think Tulsa can be better.

That does not mean I am ready to call the Golden Hurricane a bowl team.

There are still concerns.

The defense has to improve. The turnover margin has to swing. The run game has to give Hayes more help. The new receivers and backs have to fit quickly. The schedule has some rough road trips.

But there is a path.

The best-case scenario is that Baylor Hayes takes a clear sophomore jump, Trequan Jones and Damari Alston stabilize the backfield, David Wells Jr. becomes the top receiver, and the defense improves with all that experience in the secondary.

If that happens, Tulsa can absolutely push toward a bowl.

The worst-case scenario is that Hayes is still too inconsistent under pressure, the run game does not help enough, the defense keeps getting pushed around, and the road schedule beats this team down before November.

Tulsa is probably still at least a year away from being truly dangerous in the American.

But the Golden Hurricane should be more competitive.

Hayes gives them a reason to believe. The defense has enough returning pieces to be better. The transfer additions make sense. And year two under Lamb should look cleaner than year one.

Tulane season outlook: Can the Green Wave stay on top after another reset?

The expectations at Tulane are different now.

This is not a cute story anymore. This is not a program just hoping to make a bowl game or sneak into the top half of the American.

Tulane expects to compete for the American championship.

Tulane expects to be in the College Football Playoff conversation.

That is what happens when a program wins at the level the Green Wave have won.

Tulane went 11-3 last season, finished 7-1 in the American, won the league, and reached the playoff before losing to Ole Miss. Two of the Green Wave’s three losses came to Ole Miss. The other came on the road at UTSA, which is about as tough a league road trip as there is.

So this was not some fluky season.

Tulane was really good.

But now comes the hard part.

Jon Sumrall is gone to Florida. Jake Retzlaff is gone. The roster looks different. The coaching staff looks different. The quarterback room is open again.

And yet the expectations are not going anywhere.

That is the standard Tulane has created.

Now new head coach Will Hall has to keep it going.

HEAD COACH

• Will Hall, entering year one as Tulane’s head coach
• Tulane went 11-3 last season.
• The Green Wave finished 7-1 in the American.
• Tulane has won at least nine games in four straight seasons.
• The Green Wave are 43-12 over the last four years.

This is an interesting hire.

Hall was already in the building as Tulane’s passing game coordinator, so this is not a total outside reset. He knows the program. He knows the players. He knows the expectations.

That part matters.

But the head coaching record is more complicated.

Hall went 14-30 at Southern Miss from 2021-24. That does not mean he cannot win at Tulane, but it does mean this is a different kind of pressure. At Southern Miss, he was trying to build something that never fully got going. At Tulane, he is taking over a program that already expects to be at the top of the league.

That is a different job.

The good news is that Hall is not inheriting a broken program.

Tulane has talent. Tulane has belief. Tulane has proof. The Green Wave have played in four straight American Championship Games, and that kind of consistency changes how a locker room thinks.

The bad news is that this roster still has a lot to replace.

Only five starters are back.

QUARTERBACK

The quarterback battle is fascinating.

It looks like Zeon Chriss-Gremillion and Kadin Semonza are the two main names to watch.

And honestly, I like the situation more than I probably should.

Chriss-Gremillion comes in from Houston, and he brings a different kind of element to the offense. He has completed about 64% of his career passes with 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, so there is some volatility there.

But the running ability is real.

Chriss-Gremillion has more than 200 career carries, nearly 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. He had a long run of 80 yards during his time at Louisiana and another long of 71 later in his career.

A quarterback who can run changes the math. He can turn third-and-6 into a scramble. He can make defenses hesitate in the run game. He can cover up some offensive line issues. He can give you explosive plays even when the passing game is still settling in.

Semonza was at Ball State before coming to Tulane, and his 2024 season showed he can play at the FBS level. He completed around 64% of his passes with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has already had a full season where he was the guy.

That matters too.

So this is not a quarterback room with no answers.

It is a quarterback room with two different answers.

Chriss-Gremillion gives Tulane a more dangerous rushing threat. Semonza gives Tulane a passer who has already shown he can run an offense for a full season.

The question is what Hall wants this offense to be.

If Tulane wants the quarterback run game to be a bigger part of the identity, Chriss-Gremillion makes a lot of sense. If Tulane wants more structure in the passing game, Semonza may be the cleaner fit.

Either way, the Green Wave have options.

That is a good place to be after losing Retzlaff.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense starts with the backfield.

Jamauri McClure has a chance to be one of the most important players on this team.

He was excellent late last season. Over the final five games, McClure averaged nearly 100 rushing yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry. He ran for 121 yards against North Texas in the American Championship Game and had 84 yards against Ole Miss in the playoff.

That is not a small sample of meaningless football.

That is production late in the year against good teams.

Now he has a chance to become the lead back.

Tulane also has Maurice Turner, who won the starting job last preseason before injuries slowed him down, and Jaylin Lucas, who comes in from Florida State. That gives the Green Wave real options in the running back room.

That is important because this offense may need the run game early.

A new quarterback, a new head coach and only two returning offensive starters means Tulane cannot just assume the passing game will be sharp right away. The Green Wave need the backs to help carry the transition.

At receiver, Anthony Brown-Stephens is the key returning piece.

He had 41 catches last season, and now he has to be more than just a piece. He has to be one of the leaders of the passing game.

Zycarl Lewis Jr. also gives Tulane another returning option at receiver, but the Green Wave do lose major production with Shazz Preston no longer in the room.

That is the challenge.

The offensive line has Reese Baker back, but this is not a unit full of returning starters. The chemistry up front has to come together quickly, especially with the early schedule Tulane has.

The skill talent is not the concern.

McClure can play. Turner can play. Lucas brings explosiveness. Brown-Stephens can be a reliable target.

The concern is how fast it all fits together.

Tulane has been too good for too long to get a free pass because the offense is new. The Green Wave need this group to grow up quickly.

DEFENSE

This is where Tulane should feel better.

The defense brings back six of the top 10 tacklers from last season, and that is a big deal for a team replacing so much on offense.

Chris Rodgers is back after finishing with 80 tackles. Kevin Adams III is back after making 53 tackles. Those two give Tulane a strong foundation in the middle of the defense.

The secondary has important pieces too.

Jack Tchienchou was the defensive MVP of the American Championship Game and finished with 83 tackles over the course of last season. E’zaiah Shine is also back in the defensive backfield.

That is a good starting point.

When you return that much defensive production from a playoff team, you should expect the defense to be one of the strengths of the roster.

And Tulane may need it to be.

The offense might take time. The quarterback battle might take time. The offensive line might take time. But the defense cannot take time.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is not easy early.

Tulane opens at Duke on Sept. 5, and that is a fascinating game.

It is the American champion against the ACC champion. It is the kind of matchup people would have argued about last season when talking about the final playoff spots. It is also a tough way to break in a new head coach and a new quarterback.

After that, Tulane hosts South Alabama, then goes to Kansas State, then hosts Southern Miss.

Three of the first five games are on the road, because after the Southern Miss game, Tulane goes to Army on Oct. 10.

That is not ideal.

Going to Duke, Kansas State and Army in the first half of the season is a real test. Army is especially tricky because of the style. That is not a normal preparation week.

The middle of the schedule gives Tulane a chance to settle in.

The Green Wave host Memphis and UTSA, then go to Charlotte, host Tulsa, go to Rice, host North Texas, and finish at South Florida.

The good news is Tulane does not have back-to-back road games.

The bad news is the league schedule still has plenty of danger. Memphis and UTSA back-to-back is tough. North Texas may look different, but it still has talent. South Florida on the road at the end of the year could be huge in the American race.

This schedule is manageable.

But it is not forgiving.

If Tulane is still figuring itself out in September, the Green Wave could take some early hits. If they survive the first month, they should be right in the mix again.

OUTLOOK

Tulane has earned the benefit of the doubt.

That is where I keep landing.

There are reasons to worry. A new head coach. A new quarterback. Only five returning starters. A lot of offensive production gone. Three road games in the first five weeks.

That is a lot.

But this program is not starting from zero.

Tulane has won too much for too long to be treated like a normal rebuilding team. The Green Wave have played in four straight American Championship Games. They have been to the playoff. They have built a standard that should outlast one coaching change.

The best-case scenario is that Zeon Chriss-Gremillion wins the job and adds a dangerous running element, or Kadin Semonza wins it and gives Tulane a steady passer. McClure becomes one of the best backs in the league. Brown-Stephens becomes the go-to receiver. The defense carries the team early. And Hall keeps the culture steady.

If that happens, Tulane can win the American again.

The worst-case scenario is that the quarterback battle lingers, the offense takes too long to find rhythm, the offensive line struggles, and the early road games create pressure before the team has settled in.

That is possible too.

My gut?

Tulane is not the safest team in the American.

But the Green Wave are still one of the teams you have to take seriously.

The defense should be good. The running back room has real talent. The quarterback options are better than people may realize. The program knows what championship-level football looks like.

The American feels wide open, but Tulane belongs in the conversation near the top.

The names have changed.

The expectations have not.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

There were moments last season when Temple looked better.

Not where the Owls want to be yet.

But better.

That matters for a program that has been stuck in neutral for a while. The Owls went 5-7 last season and 3-5 in the American, which still was not a winning season. Temple has not had one of those since 2019.

But after years of sitting near the bottom, there was at least some movement.

The frustrating part is how close Temple was to making the season feel different. The Owls lost to Navy by one. They lost to Army by one. They had flashes where it looked like they were ready to take a real step.

Then the better teams showed the gap.

Oklahoma blew them out. Georgia Tech handled them. Tulane and North Texas both scored a bunch in blowouts. That is the difference between “better” and actually being good.

Now K.C. Keeler enters year two, and Temple has a chance to be one of the more interesting teams in the American.

HEAD COACH

• K.C. Keeler, entering year two at Temple
• Temple went 5-7 last season.
• The Owls improved after winning only three games in each of the previous four seasons.

Keeler has already made Temple more competitive.

That does not mean the rebuild is done. It’s still in its early stages.

But going from four straight three-win seasons to 5-7 is progress. The Owls were cleaner than a lot of teams near the bottom of the standings. They were careful with the ball. They avoided penalties. They did a lot of the things that usually make a team look well coached.

Temple averaged only 4.9 penalties per game, which ranked near the top 25 nationally. The turnover margin was plus-0.9 per game, also one of the better marks in the country.

That helped the Owls stay in games.

The concern is whether those things are repeatable.

Turnovers can swing year to year. A fumble bounces one way one season and the other way the next. If Temple is going to improve again, the Owls need more than good fortune and clean football.

They need more offense.

And they need a defense that can actually get off the field.

QUARTERBACK

The quarterback battle is the biggest question.

It looks like Jaxon Smolik and Ajani Sheppard are competing for the job.

Smolik comes from Penn State, where he waited behind other quarterbacks and never threw a collegiate pass in limited appearances. Sheppard comes from Washington State after previously being at Rutgers, where he threw two passes in three career games.

So there is not much proven college production here.

Smolik feels like he may have the slight edge, partly because he spent time in a Big Ten quarterback room and has the kind of arm talent that made Penn State bring him in. But Sheppard is not just some throw-in. He was also recruited by Power Four programs and gives Temple another real option.

This is not a battle between two long-time starters.

It is a battle between two quarterbacks who still have a lot to prove.

Temple has enough around the quarterback to make this work if one of them is ready. The Owls do not need a superstar. They need somebody who protects the ball, gets it to the tight end, takes advantage of the returning receivers and lets the offensive line help carry the offense.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

This is why Temple could be a sneaky team.

The offense actually has pieces.

Start with Peter Clarke.

Clarke may be the best tight end in the American. He had 30 catches and six touchdowns last season, and he has nine career touchdowns. In a league that does not have a ton of proven tight ends, Clarke stands out.

He should be the new quarterback’s best friend.

A reliable tight end is a huge deal when you are breaking in a new starter. Clarke can work the middle of the field. He can be a red-zone target. He can help on third down. He gives Temple a real matchup piece.

The receiver room has continuity too.

Jojo Bermudez and Colin Chase are both back after combining for 78 catches and eight touchdowns last season. That gives Temple two experienced targets outside.

The Owls are not asking a new quarterback to walk into an empty room. They have Clarke. They have Bermudez. They have Chase. That is a good start.

The offensive line may be the biggest reason for optimism.

Temple brings back four starters up front: Grayson Mains, Eric King, Giakoby Hills and Jackson Pruitt. For a team with a quarterback battle, that kind of continuity is huge.

If you do not know exactly who the quarterback is, you better know who is blocking for him.

Temple does.

The run game likely leans on Sam Brown, who comes from Rutgers after 205 career carries over four seasons. He does not need to be a 1,500-yard back. He just needs to make defenses respect the run enough to give the passing game some space.

Last year, Temple averaged 25.4 points per game and 325.7 yards per game.

Those numbers are not great, but they are not hopeless either.

If the quarterback play is stable, this offense can be better than people expect.

DEFENSE

This is where the concern starts.

Temple only brings back two defensive starters, and the defense had some real problems last season.

The Owls allowed 197 rushing yards per game. They also had only 16 sacks, which means they did not create enough negative plays or pressure.

That is a bad combination.

If you cannot stop the run and you cannot consistently pressure the quarterback, good offenses are going to make you pay.

Temple saw that last year.

Oklahoma scored 42. Georgia Tech scored 45. East Carolina scored 45. Tulane scored 37. North Texas scored 52.

That is the gap Temple has to close.

The defense starts with Curly Ordonez, who was an All-American honorable mention type of player and finished with 66 tackles last season. He is the clear centerpiece of the defense.

Avery Powell is also back in the secondary, which gives the Owls at least one experienced defensive back.

But Temple needs more.

The Owls added Saboor Karriem, an Illinois transfer, and that could be big. They also bring in other pieces, including Caleb Artist from Penn State and Daviier Bishop from East Mississippi Community College.

The names matter less than the results.

Temple has to be more physical against the run.

It has to create more pressure.

It has to stop giving up explosive scoring days to the better teams on the schedule.

If the defense is even average, Temple can be a bowl team. If it is not, the offense may not be good enough to carry the season.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is not awful.

Temple opens at home against Rhode Island, then hosts Penn State on Sept. 12. That Penn State game is a major opportunity, even if Temple will be a heavy underdog. Getting a Big Ten team at home is still a big deal.

After that, the Owls go to Toledo, then host Army on Sept. 25.

That September matters.

The Rhode Island game has to be a win. Toledo is a tricky road game. Army at home is one of those games that could tell us a lot about how far Temple has come, especially after losing to Army by one last season.

Then comes American play.

Temple goes to South Florida, hosts UConn and Charlotte, then has road games at East Carolina and Navy. The Owls close with UAB, Rice and a road trip to Memphis.

The road schedule is not easy.

South Florida, East Carolina, Navy and Memphis are all tough spots in different ways. South Florida has talent. East Carolina can be dangerous. Navy is never fun to prepare for. Memphis is usually one of the league’s better programs.

But Temple does get some important home games.

Penn State and Army come to Philadelphia. Charlotte, UAB and Rice are also at home. That is where the bowl path lives.

If Temple protects home field and steals a road game or two, six wins is very realistic.

If it drops the home swing games, the schedule becomes a problem quickly.

OUTLOOK

The offense has enough returning to matter. Peter Clarke is a real weapon. Jojo Bermudez and Colin Chase give the Owls experienced receivers. Four offensive line starters are back. The quarterback room has two Power Four transfers. The coaching staff has already shown it can make the team cleaner and more competitive.

That is the optimistic case.

The concern is the defense.

Temple cannot get gashed on the ground again. It cannot finish with only 16 sacks again. It cannot rely on turnover margin and low penalties every year and assume those things will carry the record.

At some point, the Owls have to win more snaps.

The best-case scenario is that Smolik or Sheppard settles the quarterback job quickly, Clarke becomes the best tight end in the league, the offensive line gives Temple a real foundation, and the defense improves just enough to turn last year’s one-point losses into wins.

If that happens, Temple can get to a bowl.

The worst-case scenario is that the quarterback battle drags on, the defense still cannot stop the run, the turnover luck fades, and the better teams on the schedule continue to separate.

Keeler has them moving in the right direction.

Now year two is about turning “better” into “bowl team.”

That is the line for Temple.

And with this offense, it is absolutely within reach.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

For a while last season, South Florida looked like it might be the best Group of Five team in college football.

The Bulls won at Florida. They were sitting at 6-1. They had one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the country. They had momentum. They had a clear identity. They looked like a real American championship contender.

Then the close losses hit.

South Florida lost tight games to Memphis and Navy, and that changed the way the season looked. Instead of feeling like an 11-win breakthrough, the Bulls finished 9-4 with a bowl loss to Old Dominion.

Still, the progress was real.

South Florida went 6-2 in the American last year and is 23-16 over the last three seasons.

The question now is whether the Bulls can keep climbing after losing the two biggest faces of the program.

Alex Golesh is gone.

Byrum Brown is gone.

Brian Hartline takes over, and South Florida enters 2026 with a new coach, a new quarterback battle and a roster loaded with transfers.

HEAD COACH

• Brian Hartline, entering year one at South Florida
• South Florida went 9-4 last season.
• The Bulls finished 6-2 in the American.
• USF is 23-16 over the last three seasons.
• The Bulls have only a few returning starters, but added a huge transfer class.

This is one of the more interesting jobs in the American.

South Florida has enough recruiting access to matter. It has a big-market location. It has recent proof that it can beat good teams. And after last season, players around the country should look at USF differently than they did a few years ago.

That is why the transfer haul matters.

The Bulls did not just add random depth pieces. They added players from LSU, Florida State, Ohio State, Florida, Rutgers, Kansas State, BYU, Missouri State, Georgia Southern and other programs.

That says something.

South Florida is still in the American, but the way Power Four transfers are looking at the program tells you it does not feel like a massive step down.

QUARTERBACK

The quarterback battle is the whole story.

Michael Van Buren and Luke Kromenhoek are competing for the job, and both bring Power Four experience.

Van Buren has the longer track record. He previously played at Mississippi State and LSU, and he has completed about 57% of his career passes with 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

The most interesting part of his profile is what he did under pressure last year.

Van Buren was 19-of-31 under pressure, which comes out to about 61%. He threw three touchdowns and no interceptions in those situations, and that ranked among the best marks in the country.

That is the good version.

The question is whether it is real.

In 2024 at Mississippi State, Van Buren was much worse under pressure, completing 26-of-70 throws with no touchdowns and two interceptions.

So which version is South Florida getting?

Probably something in the middle.

But if last year’s pressure numbers are even close to real, that gives the Bulls a quarterback who can handle chaos. That is a big deal, especially with a new offensive staff and a rebuilt roster.

Kromenhoek is the other option. He previously played at Florida State and Mississippi State, and while his career numbers are lighter, there is talent there. He is a career 52% passer with three touchdowns and two interceptions, but the arm talent is real. He can fit throws into tight windows.

That makes this competition fascinating.

Van Buren feels like the safer, more experienced option.

Kromenhoek may have enough upside to make the staff think hard.

Either way, South Florida did a smart thing by giving itself multiple options after losing Brown.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense is not starting from scratch, but it is close.

The top returning skill player is Mudia Reuben, who caught 36 passes for 495 yards last season. He was third on the team in catches, and now he has a chance to become a much bigger piece.

That matters because the new quarterback needs a reliable target.

Reuben does not have to carry the whole passing game by himself, but he needs to be the steady piece. The guy who knows where to be. The guy who can win on third down. The guy who helps settle the offense early in the season.

Wyatt Sullivan is also back at tight end after finishing with 176 receiving yards last year. He may not have been listed everywhere as a returning starter, but he gives USF another experienced option in the passing game.

Up front, Thomas Shrader is the key returning offensive lineman. He played left guard, but there is a chance he moves to the right side. That kind of flexibility matters when a line is being rebuilt.

The Bulls also added Caleb Cook from Georgia Southern and Cash Hudson, who started 30 games at Missouri State.

That experience helps.

At running back, DJ Crowther is one of the more interesting additions. He comes in from Dartmouth after producing more than 1,300 rushing yards in 31 career games.

So there are pieces.

The question is how quickly they become an offense.

South Florida is not going to have Byrum Brown erasing mistakes anymore. Brown could turn a broken play into a 40-yard run. He could make defenses play with hesitation. He gave the offense an easy answer when things got messy.

Now the Bulls need more structure.

They need the quarterback to be efficient. They need Reuben to become a lead receiver. They need Crowther or somebody else to give them a real run game. They need the offensive line to settle in fast.

The upside is there.

The chemistry is the question.

DEFENSE

The defense may be where the transfer class tells the biggest story.

Tavin Ward is the key returning piece in the secondary. He has started 18 games over the last two seasons and had 60 tackles last year.

That gives USF at least one experienced defensive back to build around.

Michael Williams also returns after starting the regular-season finale and the bowl game. If he takes another step, that helps the defensive front.

But most of the intrigue comes from the new names.

South Florida added a long list of Power Four transfers on defense. C.J. Hicks comes in from Ohio State. Asani Redwood comes in on the defensive line. Sam Robinson arrives from Rutgers. Tavion Beasley comes from BYU. Amarian Fortenberry comes from Kansas State. Pup Howard and Teddy Foster come from Florida. There are others too.

That is a lot of talent.

It is also a lot of new.

The defense could be better than expected if those pieces hit quickly. But with so many transfers, the first month matters. Communication has to come fast. Tackling has to be clean. Roles have to be clear.

South Florida does not need the defense to be elite.

But it cannot be disorganized.

The Bulls are going to play enough dangerous offenses in the American that busted assignments and poor tackling will get punished. If this defense comes together, South Florida can be a real contender. If it takes too long, the Bulls could lose a couple of games they are talented enough to win.

Special teams should help.

Nico Grammatica is back after going 18-of-24 on field goals last season, and he may be the best kicker in the American. That is not a small thing in a league where so many games come down to one possession.

SCHEDULE

The schedule gives South Florida a chance to start fast.

The Bulls open with Florida International, then go to Army on Sept. 12. After that, they host Delaware State, go to Bowling Green, then open American play with Temple.

That Army game is huge.

If South Florida wins at Army, there is a real path to a 5-0 start before going to UTSA.

That does not mean it will be easy. Army is always a pain to prepare for, and this year’s team is experienced on offense. Playing a service academy on the road is never comfortable.

But if USF gets through that game and UTSA, a place good American seasons go to die, then the schedule becomes manageable.

After Temple, the Bulls go to UTSA, then host Kent State. They get a bye before hosting UAB, then close with a tougher stretch: at East Carolina, Memphis, at Florida Atlantic and Tulane.

The good news is South Florida does not play back-to-back road games.

That matters.

The bad news is the final month is not easy.

East Carolina is a tricky road game. Memphis is still Memphis, even with changes. Florida Atlantic should be able to throw the ball. Tulane has been the standard in this league for years.

So the path is clear.

South Florida needs to bank wins early.

If the Bulls get to the back half with momentum, they can be in the American race. If they stumble early while the new roster is still figuring itself out, the closing stretch could become a problem.

OUTLOOK

I like South Florida’s upside.

I really do.

The transfer class is impressive. The quarterback room has real options. Reuben gives the offense a proven receiver. The defense added a ton of Power Four talent. Grammatica is a major weapon at kicker. And the schedule gives the Bulls a chance to build confidence early.

But this is still a team replacing a lot.

A new coach and new quarterback is a major reset. Losing Byrum Brown changes the entire personality of the offense. Losing Golesh changes the program’s leadership. Bringing in this many transfers gives you talent, but it also creates uncertainty.

The best-case scenario is that Michael Van Buren wins the job and proves last year’s pressure numbers were real, the offensive line settles in, Crowther gives the run game enough balance, Reuben becomes a top target, and the defense quickly turns all those transfer additions into a real unit.

If that happens, South Florida can absolutely contend in the American.

The worst-case scenario is that the quarterback battle drags into the season, the offense loses too much of Brown’s playmaking, the transfers take too long to mesh, and the Bulls drop one or two early games before the tough finish even arrives.

The Bulls have enough talent to be near the top of the league. They have enough schedule opportunity to start fast. They have enough quarterback options to find an answer.

Now they have to prove this is a reload, not a reset.

If Hartline gets the quarterback decision right and the transfer-heavy defense comes together quickly, South Florida can be right back in the American title conversation.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Navy season outlook: Can the Midshipmen stay on top without Blake Horvath?

Last year, Navy was not some cute little story.

The Midshipmen were legitimate.

They went 11-2, finished 7-1 in the American, and gave themselves a real argument as one of the best Group of Five teams in the country. Over the last two seasons, Navy is 21-5, and that is not an accident.

At this point, Brian Newberry has earned the right for Navy to be treated as one of the favorites in the American.

But this year is different.

Blake Horvath is gone.

And for a program that asks so much from its quarterback, that is not a small thing.

HEAD COACH

• Brian Newberry, entering year four at Navy
• Newberry is 26-12 with the Midshipmen.
• Navy is 21-5 over the last two seasons.

Navy’s rise under Newberry has been impressive.

Two years ago, this looked like a program trying to get back to what it used to be. Now the Midshipmen look like a real factor in the American every season.

That is the standard now.

And that is why this year is interesting.

Navy has earned respect. The preseason magazines are going to have the Midshipmen near the top of the American. Some may even pick them to win it.

I understand why.

But replacing Horvath is a major deal.

Navy averaged 29.8 points per game last season and 403.9 yards per game. The Midshipmen ran the ball on almost 77% of their plays, which ranked near the top of the country, and still ranked No. 2 nationally in yards per pass attempt.

That tells you how efficient this offense was.

It was not just “run the ball and hope.”

It was run the ball, make you overcommit, then hit you for a huge pass when your eyes got in the wrong place.

That only works when the quarterback is running the whole thing at a high level.

Horvath did that.

Now Navy has to prove the offense can still function without him.

QUARTERBACK

The job appears to belong to Braxton Woodson.

Woodson is a senior quarterback from Altamonte Springs, Florida, and Navy lists him at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds. He has made two career starts and has played in different ways during his career, including quarterback, slotback and wide receiver.

Navy has wanted him on the field because of his speed.

Now he has to be the one running the entire offense.

Woodson has completed 44 of 95 career passes for 466 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. He also has 146 carries for 760 yards and 10 touchdowns.

So he can run.

That is not the question.

The question is whether he can operate the offense the way Horvath did.

This is not an easy system to run. People sometimes talk about option football like it is simple because there are not 40 pass attempts a game. It is not simple. The quarterback has to read everything. He has to make the right decision. He has to protect the ball. He has to understand when to keep it, when to pitch it, when to hand it off, and when to take the shot downfield.

That is a lot.

Woodson has the athletic ability. He has the speed. He has been in the program.

But now he has to be the captain of the whole thing.

That is the biggest question on this team.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The good news is the offensive line.

That is where Navy should feel good.

Sean Crowley, Malcolm Johnson, Cam Nichols and Hoke Smith II are all back up front. Johnson is a sophomore offensive tackle, Smith a senior offensive guard, Nichols a senior center, and Crowley a junior offensive tackle.

That matters a ton.

If you are going to replace the quarterback, the fullback, the leading slotback and a huge chunk of your offensive yardage, the best thing you can have is an experienced line.

Navy has that.

The skill positions are more of a mystery.

Vic Lyczek is expected to be in the mix at fullback, but he has had a lingering hamstring issue. If he is right, he could be a major piece. If not, Navy may need to find answers quickly.

Charles Robinson had a strong spring and could be one of the key slotbacks. That position matters so much in this offense because it is not just about running. The slotbacks have to block, read leverage, handle pitch timing and occasionally hurt teams through the air.

In addition to Horvath, Navy lost Alex Tecza and Eli Heidenreich, and that is a lot of production to replace.

The Midshipmen lost about 68% of their offensive yardage from last season.

That is not nothing.

The line gives them a chance to survive it. The system gives them a chance to survive it. But it is hard to imagine Navy being quite as efficient right away.

The offense can still be good.

But asking it to be exactly what it was last year feels like a lot.

DEFENSE

This is where Navy may need to take a step forward.

The defense was fine last season.

Not bad.

Not great.

Navy allowed 26.5 points per game and 384.6 yards per game, both around the middle of the country. That was good enough last year because the offense was so efficient and because Navy could control games.

But if the offense slips at all, the defense has to help more.

There are reasons to believe it can.

MarcAnthony Parker and Coleman Cauley give Navy a strong linebacker foundation.  Those two combined for 176 tackles last season.

That is a strong place to start.

The secondary also has experience with Phillip Hamilton and Giuseppe Sessi. Sessi had 81 tackles last season, and he gives Navy a reliable piece at safety.

The defensive front includes senior Griffen Willis.

This unit does not have to become elite.

But it does need to be better than average if Navy wants to win the American.

Last year’s offense covered up some things. This year’s offense may need help.

If the defense can become more disruptive, get off the field more consistently, and make opponents play Navy’s kind of game, the Midshipmen can still be right there.

SCHEDULE

Navy opens at home against Towson on Sept. 5, then goes on the road for three straight games: at Florida Atlantic, at UAB and at Air Force.

I do not care who the opponents are.

Three straight road games is tough.

Florida Atlantic can throw it all over the yard. UAB is a conference road game. Air Force is a rivalry game, and service academy games always feel different.

That stretch could tell us a lot about this team.

After that, Navy comes home for Tulsa, goes to UTSA, hosts North Texas, then plays Notre Dame in Foxborough on Halloween. The Midshipmen then host Temple and Memphis, go to Charlotte, and finish with Army in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

The interesting part is the middle of the schedule.

After the UTSA trip on Oct. 17, Navy does not play another true road game until Charlotte on Nov. 28.

That helps.

The Notre Dame game is neutral-site, not easy. But it is not a true road game either.

So the schedule has two different personalities.

The early stretch is tough because of the travel.

The middle gives Navy a chance to settle in.

The ending is always about Army.

And this year, Army-Navy could have a lot on the line again.

OUTLOOK

I understand why people want to pick Navy to win the American.

The Midshipmen have earned that respect.

Newberry has built real momentum. The offensive line is experienced. Woodson has athletic ability. The defense has enough returning pieces to improve. The schedule has some manageable stretches after the early road swing.

That is the optimistic case.

The concern is simple.

Navy lost the guy who made the offense go.

Blake Horvath was not just a quarterback. He was the decision-maker, the leader and the player who made the option dangerous on every snap. Replacing that is hard.

The best-case scenario is that Braxton Woodson brings a different kind of speed to the offense, the line carries the transition, the new skill players settle in quickly, and the defense improves enough to take pressure off the offense.

If that happens, Navy can win the American.

The worst-case scenario is that the offense loses too much efficiency, the new backs are not ready, Woodson goes through growing pains as the full-time quarterback, and the early road stretch puts Navy behind before it settles in.

The American is going to be fun.

And if Navy figures out the quarterback spot quickly, the Midshipmen may be right back where they were last year — in the middle of the conference title race, with a playoff path still sitting out there.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.