Tulane season outlook: Can the Green Wave stay on top after another reset?

The expectations at Tulane are different now.

This is not a cute story anymore. This is not a program just hoping to make a bowl game or sneak into the top half of the American.

Tulane expects to compete for the American championship.

Tulane expects to be in the College Football Playoff conversation.

That is what happens when a program wins at the level the Green Wave have won.

Tulane went 11-3 last season, finished 7-1 in the American, won the league, and reached the playoff before losing to Ole Miss. Two of the Green Wave’s three losses came to Ole Miss. The other came on the road at UTSA, which is about as tough a league road trip as there is.

So this was not some fluky season.

Tulane was really good.

But now comes the hard part.

Jon Sumrall is gone to Florida. Jake Retzlaff is gone. The roster looks different. The coaching staff looks different. The quarterback room is open again.

And yet the expectations are not going anywhere.

That is the standard Tulane has created.

Now new head coach Will Hall has to keep it going.

HEAD COACH

• Will Hall, entering year one as Tulane’s head coach
• Tulane went 11-3 last season.
• The Green Wave finished 7-1 in the American.
• Tulane has won at least nine games in four straight seasons.
• The Green Wave are 43-12 over the last four years.

This is an interesting hire.

Hall was already in the building as Tulane’s passing game coordinator, so this is not a total outside reset. He knows the program. He knows the players. He knows the expectations.

That part matters.

But the head coaching record is more complicated.

Hall went 14-30 at Southern Miss from 2021-24. That does not mean he cannot win at Tulane, but it does mean this is a different kind of pressure. At Southern Miss, he was trying to build something that never fully got going. At Tulane, he is taking over a program that already expects to be at the top of the league.

That is a different job.

The good news is that Hall is not inheriting a broken program.

Tulane has talent. Tulane has belief. Tulane has proof. The Green Wave have played in four straight American Championship Games, and that kind of consistency changes how a locker room thinks.

The bad news is that this roster still has a lot to replace.

Only five starters are back.

QUARTERBACK

The quarterback battle is fascinating.

It looks like Zeon Chriss-Gremillion and Kadin Semonza are the two main names to watch.

And honestly, I like the situation more than I probably should.

Chriss-Gremillion comes in from Houston, and he brings a different kind of element to the offense. He has completed about 64% of his career passes with 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, so there is some volatility there.

But the running ability is real.

Chriss-Gremillion has more than 200 career carries, nearly 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. He had a long run of 80 yards during his time at Louisiana and another long of 71 later in his career.

A quarterback who can run changes the math. He can turn third-and-6 into a scramble. He can make defenses hesitate in the run game. He can cover up some offensive line issues. He can give you explosive plays even when the passing game is still settling in.

Semonza was at Ball State before coming to Tulane, and his 2024 season showed he can play at the FBS level. He completed around 64% of his passes with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has already had a full season where he was the guy.

That matters too.

So this is not a quarterback room with no answers.

It is a quarterback room with two different answers.

Chriss-Gremillion gives Tulane a more dangerous rushing threat. Semonza gives Tulane a passer who has already shown he can run an offense for a full season.

The question is what Hall wants this offense to be.

If Tulane wants the quarterback run game to be a bigger part of the identity, Chriss-Gremillion makes a lot of sense. If Tulane wants more structure in the passing game, Semonza may be the cleaner fit.

Either way, the Green Wave have options.

That is a good place to be after losing Retzlaff.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense starts with the backfield.

Jamauri McClure has a chance to be one of the most important players on this team.

He was excellent late last season. Over the final five games, McClure averaged nearly 100 rushing yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry. He ran for 121 yards against North Texas in the American Championship Game and had 84 yards against Ole Miss in the playoff.

That is not a small sample of meaningless football.

That is production late in the year against good teams.

Now he has a chance to become the lead back.

Tulane also has Maurice Turner, who won the starting job last preseason before injuries slowed him down, and Jaylin Lucas, who comes in from Florida State. That gives the Green Wave real options in the running back room.

That is important because this offense may need the run game early.

A new quarterback, a new head coach and only two returning offensive starters means Tulane cannot just assume the passing game will be sharp right away. The Green Wave need the backs to help carry the transition.

At receiver, Anthony Brown-Stephens is the key returning piece.

He had 41 catches last season, and now he has to be more than just a piece. He has to be one of the leaders of the passing game.

Zycarl Lewis Jr. also gives Tulane another returning option at receiver, but the Green Wave do lose major production with Shazz Preston no longer in the room.

That is the challenge.

The offensive line has Reese Baker back, but this is not a unit full of returning starters. The chemistry up front has to come together quickly, especially with the early schedule Tulane has.

The skill talent is not the concern.

McClure can play. Turner can play. Lucas brings explosiveness. Brown-Stephens can be a reliable target.

The concern is how fast it all fits together.

Tulane has been too good for too long to get a free pass because the offense is new. The Green Wave need this group to grow up quickly.

DEFENSE

This is where Tulane should feel better.

The defense brings back six of the top 10 tacklers from last season, and that is a big deal for a team replacing so much on offense.

Chris Rodgers is back after finishing with 80 tackles. Kevin Adams III is back after making 53 tackles. Those two give Tulane a strong foundation in the middle of the defense.

The secondary has important pieces too.

Jack Tchienchou was the defensive MVP of the American Championship Game and finished with 83 tackles over the course of last season. E’zaiah Shine is also back in the defensive backfield.

That is a good starting point.

When you return that much defensive production from a playoff team, you should expect the defense to be one of the strengths of the roster.

And Tulane may need it to be.

The offense might take time. The quarterback battle might take time. The offensive line might take time. But the defense cannot take time.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is not easy early.

Tulane opens at Duke on Sept. 5, and that is a fascinating game.

It is the American champion against the ACC champion. It is the kind of matchup people would have argued about last season when talking about the final playoff spots. It is also a tough way to break in a new head coach and a new quarterback.

After that, Tulane hosts South Alabama, then goes to Kansas State, then hosts Southern Miss.

Three of the first five games are on the road, because after the Southern Miss game, Tulane goes to Army on Oct. 10.

That is not ideal.

Going to Duke, Kansas State and Army in the first half of the season is a real test. Army is especially tricky because of the style. That is not a normal preparation week.

The middle of the schedule gives Tulane a chance to settle in.

The Green Wave host Memphis and UTSA, then go to Charlotte, host Tulsa, go to Rice, host North Texas, and finish at South Florida.

The good news is Tulane does not have back-to-back road games.

The bad news is the league schedule still has plenty of danger. Memphis and UTSA back-to-back is tough. North Texas may look different, but it still has talent. South Florida on the road at the end of the year could be huge in the American race.

This schedule is manageable.

But it is not forgiving.

If Tulane is still figuring itself out in September, the Green Wave could take some early hits. If they survive the first month, they should be right in the mix again.

OUTLOOK

Tulane has earned the benefit of the doubt.

That is where I keep landing.

There are reasons to worry. A new head coach. A new quarterback. Only five returning starters. A lot of offensive production gone. Three road games in the first five weeks.

That is a lot.

But this program is not starting from zero.

Tulane has won too much for too long to be treated like a normal rebuilding team. The Green Wave have played in four straight American Championship Games. They have been to the playoff. They have built a standard that should outlast one coaching change.

The best-case scenario is that Zeon Chriss-Gremillion wins the job and adds a dangerous running element, or Kadin Semonza wins it and gives Tulane a steady passer. McClure becomes one of the best backs in the league. Brown-Stephens becomes the go-to receiver. The defense carries the team early. And Hall keeps the culture steady.

If that happens, Tulane can win the American again.

The worst-case scenario is that the quarterback battle lingers, the offense takes too long to find rhythm, the offensive line struggles, and the early road games create pressure before the team has settled in.

That is possible too.

My gut?

Tulane is not the safest team in the American.

But the Green Wave are still one of the teams you have to take seriously.

The defense should be good. The running back room has real talent. The quarterback options are better than people may realize. The program knows what championship-level football looks like.

The American feels wide open, but Tulane belongs in the conversation near the top.

The names have changed.

The expectations have not.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.