Kickoff: Friday, September 4 at 7:00 PM CT
Location: Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
TV: SECN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): OU -41.5
Over/under: 50.5

The setup

Oklahoma is expected to win comfortably as a 41.5-point favorite. A win is expected; how quickly it takes control may tell us more about what comes next. Since 2004, Oklahoma leads 3-0 in 3 meetings; Oklahoma has won 3 straight in the series. OU won the last meeting 45-13 in 2022.

What I’m watching

The biggest test is whether UTEP can move the ball without living in third-and-long. That offense ranked No. 115 nationally at 5.3 yards each time it snapped the ball; Oklahoma’s defense ranked No. 5 and allowed only 4.9. UTEP doesn’t return any starters on offense, while Oklahoma returns 6 starters on defense.

Personnel snapshot

• UTEP: Scotty Walden enters Year 3 as head coach. 4 starters return—0 on offense and 4 on defense. Key defenders back include Ashton Coker, Justin Content, and Xavier Smith. That defense allowed 391.3 yards and 33.3 points per game last season.
• UTEP quarterback: EJ Colson is projected to start for UTEP. Last season at Incarnate Word, he threw for 2,142 yards, 16 TD and 4 INT.
• Oklahoma: Brent Venables enters Year 5 as head coach. 14 starters return—8 on offense and 6 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Michael Fasusi, Ryan Fodje, and Jake Maikkula. That offense averaged 354.3 yards and 31.2 points per game last season.
• Oklahoma quarterback: John Mateer returns as Oklahoma’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,578 yards, 12 TD and 10 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• Oklahoma should have time to throw: PFF graded Oklahoma’s pass blocking No. 11 among 136 FBS teams last season; UTEP’s pass rush ranked No. 119. That points to a cleaner pocket than UTEP can afford to give up. Oklahoma also kept the same head coach and offensive coordinator, with 8 offensive starters back. UTEP kept the same head coach and returns 4 defensive starters.
• UTEP’s toughest run game test: UTEP averaged 4.14 yards per rush play, No. 126 nationally. Oklahoma’s defense allowed 3.53 yards per rush play, No. 2 nationally. That puts a proven Oklahoma strength directly against one of UTEP’s biggest 2025 problems. UTEP changed its offensive leadership and returns 0 starters on that side, so last year’s number is a warning or opportunity—not a guarantee.
• Making the jump from FCS to FBS: EJ Colson, a transfer from Incarnate Word, is expected to make his first start for UTEP after playing at the FCS level. Last year he threw for 2,142 yards, 16 TD and 4 INT; 1.4% of his throws were picked off. Oklahoma returns 6 defensive starters and led the FBS with 3.46 sacks per game, finishing with 45. UTEP returns no listed starting offensive linemen, making protection the immediate question.

How the game is decided

UTEP needs easy offense: a short field, a quarterback run or a quick pass that breaks a tackle. If Oklahoma makes every drive travel the full field, its advantage should grow with each obvious passing down.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.