Kickoff: Friday, September 4 at 8:00 PM CT
Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
TV: FOX
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): USC -23.5
Over/under: 51.5

The setup

By the end of Friday night, USC will have played twice before 65% of the FBS has played once. The Trojans are speed-running September while Fresno State opens its season.

What I’m watching

This is the cleanest strength-on-strength part of the game. USC finished No. 4 nationally at 7.4 yards each time it snapped the ball; Fresno St was No. 24 at stopping offenses, allowing 5.3. Those units return 9 offensive starters and 7 defensive starters, so both old rankings still carry weight. Whichever side still looks like its 2025 version probably controls the game.

Personnel snapshot

• Fresno St: Matt Entz enters Year 2 as head coach. 13 starters return—6 on offense and 7 on defense. Key defenders back include Jahzon Jacks, Deijon Laffitte, and Martin Owusu. That defense allowed 285.7 yards and 21.2 points per game last season.
• Fresno St quarterback: Khristian Martin is projected to start for Fresno St. Last season at Maryland, he threw for 105 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT.
• USC: Lincoln Riley enters Year 5 as head coach. 15 starters return—9 on offense and 6 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Alani Noa, Kilian O'Connor, and Elijah Paige. That offense averaged 465.5 yards and 44.2 points per game last season.
• USC quarterback: Jayden Maiava returns as USC's starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 3,431 yards, 23 TD and 8 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The youth movement: USC started five true freshmen against San Jose State and played 20. Fresno State is not getting the nervous first snap from that youth movement; it is getting a freshman class with a full game's rehearsal.
• The scoring trend: USC converted 9 of 13 third downs and produced five touchdown drives of at least 74 yards in its opener. Fresno State counters with a defense that allowed only 18.8 points and 285.7 yards per game last year and intercepted 20 passes.
• The quarterback angle: Jayden Maiava completed 25 of 29 passes, including 14 straight, and produced three touchdowns in Week 0. He now owns 5,198 USC passing yards; Fresno State's opener begins against a quarterback already in midseason rhythm.

How the game is decided

First down decides it. If USC stays on schedule, its quarterback gets the full playbook; if Fresno St creates second-and-long, the defense can dictate the next two snaps. One or two third downs may tell us which returning unit is actually as good as last year's ranking.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.