Category: College Football

UCLA could not look much different than it did last year.

That is probably a good thing.

The Bruins went 3-9 last season and 3-6 in the Big Ten, and the one moment everyone remembers is the massive upset over Penn State. That win basically changed the direction of the Penn State program and helped end the James Franklin era there.

But for UCLA, it was more of a flash than a foundation.

The rest of the season was rough.

The offense struggled. The defense gave up too many points. The pass rush was almost nonexistent. The roster never looked deep enough to compete week after week in the Big Ten.

Now Bob Chesney takes over after a terrific run at James Madison, and the Bruins are trying to rebuild fast with a roster that has a very different feel.

There is one major piece back.

Nico Iamaleava.

And if UCLA is going to make a real jump, he has to be better.

HEAD COACH

• Bob Chesney, entering year one at UCLA
• UCLA went 3-9 last season.
• The Bruins finished 3-6 in the Big Ten.
• Chesney went 21-6 in two years at James Madison.
• James Madison reached the College Football Playoff under Chesney.

This is a really interesting hire.

Chesney won big at James Madison. He took a Group of Five program to the playoff, which is not something anyone should just brush off. James Madison was explosive on offense, tough on defense and extremely well coached.

Now he gets a Power Four job.

That changes everything.

At James Madison, Chesney could win with development, system, confidence and a roster that fit exactly what he wanted to do. At UCLA, the athlete level is higher, the resources are better and the brand is bigger.

But the schedule is also much harder.

That is the challenge.

UCLA averaged only 18.2 points per game last season, ranking near the bottom of the country. The Bruins averaged 320 yards per game, which was not much better. Opponents scored 33.4 points per game, even though they averaged only 387 yards per game.

That tells you UCLA was not just getting beaten.

It was getting put in bad situations.

Chesney’s James Madison team averaged 36.5 points per game and 452 yards per game last season. The Dukes also allowed only 19 points per game and 275 yards per game.

So the coaching track record is exciting.

The question is how fast it translates.

QUARTERBACK

Everything starts with Nico Iamaleava.

And this is one of the more fascinating quarterback situations in the Big Ten.

A couple years ago, Nico was one of the biggest names in the sport. He helped take Tennessee to the College Football Playoff, became one of the faces of the NIL era, left for UCLA, and then sort of faded from the national conversation.

That does not mean he cannot play.

He can.

But last season showed that UCLA cannot ask him to do everything.

Iamaleava completed 64% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also ran for 505 yards and four touchdowns.

Those rushing numbers are good.

But they also tell part of the problem.

Too much of the offense was on him. UCLA did not have enough around him. The run game leaned too much on the quarterback. The passing game did not have enough explosive answers.

The deep-ball numbers were the biggest concern.

Iamaleava went 6-of-31 on deep throws with two touchdowns and one interception. That is a 19% completion rate, one of the worst marks in the country.

That has to change.

Some of it is on Nico. He has to be more accurate downfield. He has to give receivers chances. He has to make defenses pay when they crowd the short and intermediate game.

But some of it was also the roster.

UCLA did not have enough proven receivers. It did not have enough help in the run game. It did not have the kind of offensive line that allowed everything to function cleanly.

That is why Chesney and this new staff matter.

They have to give Nico an offense that helps him instead of asking him to save everything.

If they do, the Bruins can be much more competitive.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense has a lot of new pieces, and most of them are connected to James Madison.

That makes sense.

Chesney knows those players. They know his system. If UCLA wants to improve quickly, bringing over players who already understand what the staff wants is logical.

The most important addition may be Wayne Knight.

Knight comes over from James Madison after rushing for 1,373 yards and nine touchdowns last season. That is exactly what UCLA needed.

A real running back.

A proven running back.

A back who can take pressure off Iamaleava.

The Bruins also have Jaivian Thomas and Anthony Woods, who both rushed for 294 yards last season. That gives UCLA more options in the backfield, and that matters because last year’s leading non-quarterback rusher is gone.

This offense cannot be Nico plus hope again.

The receiver room is also being rebuilt.

Landon Ellis comes over from James Madison. Leland Smith comes in from San Jose State. Brian Rowe comes in from South Carolina. That is a brand new group trying to replace a receiver room that did not bring back anyone with more than 500 yards from last season.

That is both concerning and exciting.

It is concerning because chemistry takes time.

It is exciting because UCLA needed something different.

The offensive line also gets help from James Madison.

Riley Robell, an All-Sun Belt type of player, comes over. Tackie Nd Raymond also comes from JMU. UCLA also has Eugene Brooks and Sam Yoon back up front.

That could be the difference.

If the line improves and Knight gives the Bruins a real run game, Iamaleava’s job changes completely. He can be a quarterback instead of the entire offense.

That is the goal.

DEFENSE

The defensive number that stands out is almost impossible to believe.

UCLA produced zero sacks last season.

Not few.

Zero.

That tells you everything about how much work this defense needs.

If you cannot sack the quarterback one time in a season, you cannot survive in the Big Ten. You are not creating negative plays. You are not speeding up quarterbacks. You are not getting offenses off schedule.

That has to be fixed immediately.

The Bruins do have some returning pieces in the secondary.

Scooter Jackson, Cole Martin and Rodrick Pleasant are all back. That gives UCLA experience on the back end, but the secondary can only hold up for so long if there is no pass rush.

That is why the transfers matter.

Sahir West comes over from James Madison as a defensive end. DJ Barksdale also comes in from James Madison in the secondary. Sammy Omosigho comes in from Oklahoma, and Tao Johnson comes in from Utah.

Those are important additions.

But the biggest thing is simple.

UCLA has to become more disruptive.

The Bruins do not need to turn into the 1985 Bears. They just need to make quarterbacks uncomfortable. They need to create sacks, tackles for loss, hurried throws and turnovers.

Chesney’s James Madison defense was outstanding last season. The Dukes allowed only 19 points per game and 275 yards per game.

If even some of that defensive identity travels to Los Angeles, UCLA will look very different.

But going from zero sacks to Big Ten competitive is not a small jump.

That is probably the biggest challenge on the roster.

SCHEDULE

The schedule does not give UCLA much time to ease into things.

Three of the first five games are on the road.

The Bruins open at Cal, then host San Diego State and Purdue. After that, they go to Maryland and Oregon.

That is a tough start.

Cal is a rivalry-type road game. Maryland is a long trip. Oregon is one of the best teams in the country.

So UCLA may be improved and still take some early punches.

The next stretch is where the season has to be made.

After Oregon, UCLA gets three straight home games against Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nevada.

That is the softest and most important part of the schedule.

If the Bruins want to push toward a bowl game, they need to win there. All three are at home. All three are games UCLA has to view as realistic opportunities.

Then comes the final month.

The Bruins go to Minnesota on Nov. 7, host Illinois on Nov. 14, go to Michigan on Nov. 21, and finish with USC at home.

That is not easy.

Michigan on the road is a major challenge. USC is the rivalry game. Illinois should be improved. Minnesota is a tough place to play in November.

The path to a bowl is there, but it is narrow.

San Diego State and Purdue need to be wins. UCLA probably needs to win at least two of Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nevada and Illinois. Then it has to steal something on the road.

That is asking a lot in year one.

But it is not impossible.

OUTLOOK

UCLA should be better.

I feel pretty confident about that.

The question is whether the record shows it right away.

That is a different conversation.

Bob Chesney is a really good coach. He proved that at James Madison. He brought over players who know his system. He has a quarterback with talent. He has a running back in Wayne Knight who can change the feel of the offense. He has a staff that should bring more structure and belief.

That is the optimistic case.

The concern is the roster gap.

UCLA was not just unlucky last season. The Bruins had major problems. They could not score enough. They could not protect the quarterback well enough. They did not have a consistent running game. They did not have a downfield passing game. They had zero sacks.

Those are not small fixes.

The best-case scenario is that Iamaleava plays like the quarterback people thought he could be, Knight gives UCLA a real run game, the James Madison transfers help the offense function quickly, and the defense finally creates pressure.

If that happens, UCLA can push toward a bowl.

The worst-case scenario is that Nico is still forced to do too much, the new receivers take time to settle, the defensive front still does not create pressure, and the early road schedule puts the Bruins behind before the rebuild has traction.

UCLA will look much better.

But the record may only be a little better.

This feels like a team that could improve by a lot in quality and only improve by a couple games in the standings. That happens when the schedule is difficult and the roster is being rebuilt.

Still, there is a real reason to believe.

Chesney has won everywhere he has been. He brings a clear identity. He brings players who know how he wants to play.

And if he can get the best out of Nico Iamaleava, UCLA becomes a lot more interesting.

Maybe not a Big Ten contender yet.

But a team nobody should just pencil in as an easy win anymore.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Greg Schiano is the reason Rutgers has had real football moments.

He is the coach who proved it was possible to win there. He is the coach most people still associate with the best stretch of Rutgers football. He is also the coach now trying to figure out how to make it happen again in a much different version of the Big Ten.

That is the hard part.

Rutgers went 5-7 last season and 2-7 in the Big Ten. The Scarlet Knights have not had a nine-win season since 2011, and Schiano is now entering year seven of his second stint.

The question is not whether Schiano knows how to win at Rutgers.

The question is whether the league has gotten too difficult for Rutgers to take the kind of step fans want.

The expanded Big Ten is brutal. There are more national brands. More travel challenges. More playoff-level teams. And Rutgers is still trying to move from the bottom tier into the middle of the league.

The good news is that the offense has real pieces.

The bad news is that the defense was a mess last season.

That is where the season starts.

HEAD COACH

• Greg Schiano, entering year seven of his second stint at Rutgers
• Rutgers went 5-7 last season.
• The Scarlet Knights finished 2-7 in the Big Ten.
• Schiano is 99-108 at Rutgers.

Schiano’s second stint has not matched the first one.

There have been moments. Rutgers had back-to-back 7-6 seasons before slipping to 5-7 last year. That matters because, at Rutgers, bowl seasons are not automatic. You take them when you get them.

But the Scarlet Knights are still trying to become more than just a team that occasionally gets to six wins.

Last season started with some promise. Rutgers opened 3-0, then things got away from them. After that start, the only wins came by three points at Purdue and against a Maryland team that completely collapsed.

That is not enough.

Rutgers averaged 25.8 points per game and 393.5 yards per game last season. Those numbers are fine. Not great, but fine.

The run game was the bigger issue.

Rutgers ran the ball on 52% of its plays, but averaged only 3.6 yards per carry. That has to be better, especially with the running back they have.

The defense was the real problem.

Rutgers allowed 33.8 points per game and 452.5 yards per game. That is not Big Ten competitive. The Scarlet Knights also finished with only 11 sacks, one of the lowest totals in the country.

If that does not change, nothing else matters.

QUARTERBACK

The quarterback battle looks like Dylan Lonergan against AJ Surace.

Lonergan is the bigger name and probably the favorite.

He comes in from Boston College after starting his career at Alabama, and he brings real Power Four experience. Last season, he completed 66.9% of his passes for 2,025 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions.

Those numbers are solid.

But the season was not perfectly smooth. Lonergan was in and out of the lineup at times at Boston College, so Rutgers is not getting a guaranteed star. It is getting a talented quarterback who has already been through a lot and now gets another chance.

That can work.

Sometimes a change of scenery is exactly what a quarterback needs.

Surace is the other option. He threw only nine passes last season, completing four for 58 yards and two touchdowns. All of his completions came against Norfolk State, so there is not much of a sample here.

That makes this decision interesting.

Lonergan has the experience.

Surace has the program familiarity.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

This is where Rutgers has its best argument for being better than people think.

Start with KJ Duff.

Duff had 60 catches for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns last season. He is 6-foot-6, wins contested catches, and led the nation with 22 contested catches, according to Athlon Sports.

That is a weapon.

A real one.

If you are breaking in a new quarterback, a receiver like Duff makes everything easier. He does not have to be wide open. He can win in traffic. He can be the answer on third down. He can bail you out when the throw is not perfect.

That matters a lot.

Then there is Antwan Raymond.

Raymond rushed for more than 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. He is one of only a handful of running backs in Rutgers history to produce a 1,200-yard season.

That should be the identity.

Rutgers has to run the ball better. It has the running back to do it. The issue is that the overall rushing efficiency was not good enough last season.

A great back should not be stuck in a run game averaging 3.6 yards per carry.

The offensive line has some pieces back with Kwabena Asamoah and Tyler Needham. That is important because this offense cannot just ask Raymond to create everything by himself. He needs cleaner lanes. The quarterback needs better protection. The whole unit has to be more physical.

The passing game also needs more than Duff.

He is good enough to be the clear No. 1, but if defenses can roll coverage his way every week, somebody else has to punish them.

That is where the development of the rest of the receiver room matters.

But the foundation is not bad.

A proven running back. A 1,000-yard receiver. Two experienced offensive linemen. A quarterback transfer with real starting experience.

That is enough to work with.

Now Rutgers has to turn it into points.

DEFENSE

This is the side that decides the season.

Rutgers was not just bad defensively last year.

It was bad in the ways that are hardest to survive in the Big Ten.

The Scarlet Knights allowed 33.8 points per game. They gave up 452.5 yards per game. Opponents averaged nearly nine yards per pass attempt, one of the worst marks in the country.

And the pass rush was almost nonexistent.

Only 11 sacks all season.

That is the number that jumps off the page.

You cannot play Big Ten football that way. Not anymore. Not with the quarterbacks and receivers in this league. If you cannot affect the passer, good teams are going to carve you up.

That is why the transfer additions matter.

Rutgers brought in help all over the defense.

Malachi Davis comes in from Toledo. J’Dan Burnett Sr. comes in from Tulsa. Ty Morris comes in from Rice. Zahmir Dawud comes in from Villanova. Kevyn Humes Jr. comes in from Boston College.

Those are the kinds of additions Rutgers needed.

Up front, Zaire Angoy and Keshon Griffin are important pieces. At linebacker, Abram Wright Jr. is back after finishing with 58 tackles. In the secondary, Kaj Sanders Jr. is the leading returning tackler after making 65 tackles last season.

There are names here.

Now there has to be production.

The defense does not need to become elite overnight. That is not realistic. But Rutgers cannot be near the bottom of the country in pass defense again. It cannot finish with only 11 sacks again. It cannot keep giving up 34 points and expect to win Big Ten games.

This team’s bowl hopes depend on the defense becoming functional.

If the defense is average, Rutgers can be competitive.

If it is bad again, the offense probably cannot save it.

SCHEDULE

Rutgers opens at home against UMass, then goes to Boston College on Sept. 11. That Boston College game has an obvious storyline if Lonergan is the quarterback against his former team.

After that, things get real quickly.

The Scarlet Knights host USC on Sept. 19, then Howard on Sept. 25, then Indiana on Oct. 3.

That means four of the first five games are at home.

That is good.

But two of those home games are USC and Indiana.

That is not good.

USC brings back a ton. Indiana is the defending national champion. Rutgers gets both in New Jersey, which matters, but those are still enormous tests.

After a bye, Rutgers goes on the road for back-to-back games at Maryland and Northwestern. Those games may define the season. If Rutgers wants to get to a bowl, it probably has to win at least one of those and maybe both.

Then Michigan comes to Rutgers on Halloween.

After that, the Scarlet Knights go to Wisconsin, host Nebraska, go to Penn State, and finish at home against Michigan State.

There are opportunities.

UMass and Howard have to be wins. Boston College is a big swing game. Maryland and Northwestern are road games, but they are not impossible. Michigan State at home could matter late.

The problem is the ceiling games.

USC, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Penn State all present real challenges. Rutgers gets several of the biggest names at home, which helps. But the schedule still does not give the Scarlet Knights many free spots.

If Rutgers is going to make a bowl, it has to win the toss-up games.

There is no other path.

OUTLOOK

I understand the case for Rutgers being better than people expect.

The offense has real pieces. KJ Duff is one of the best receivers in the Big Ten. Antwan Raymond is a proven 1,200-yard back. Dylan Lonergan gives the quarterback room a legitimate transfer option, if he starts .The offensive line has some experience.

That is the optimistic case.

The concern is the defense.

It was too bad last year to ignore. Rutgers could not rush the passer. It could not stop teams from throwing it efficiently. It gave up too many points. It let games get away.

The best-case scenario is that Lonergan wins the quarterback job and gives Rutgers stable passing-game play, Duff becomes one of the league’s best receivers again, Raymond carries the run game, and the defensive transfers immediately raise the floor.

If that happens, Rutgers can get back to a bowl.

The worst-case scenario is that the quarterback battle lingers, the run game remains inefficient despite Raymond’s talent, and the defense still cannot create pressure.

If that happens, Rutgers could be stuck near the bottom again.

The goal should be simple.

Beat the teams you are supposed to beat.

Steal one home game against a bigger name.

Win a road toss-up.

Get back to a bowl.

That would be a good season.

Anything more than that probably depends on whether the defense can make a jump nobody saw coming.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

There are struggling programs.

Then there is Purdue.

That sounds harsh, but there is no way to look at the last two years and pretend this has been normal.

The Boilermakers went 2-10 last season. They finished 0-9 in the Big Ten. They have not won a Big Ten game in two years. They have not had a winning record since 2022. They have not had a 10-win season since 1979.

That is a long drought.

And the problem is not just that Purdue has been losing.

It is how the games have looked.

The Boilermakers averaged only 17.4 points per game last season. They gave up 33.2 points per game. Opponents averaged 436 yards per game and ran the ball on almost 60% of their plays.

That tells you what the season looked like.

Teams got ahead.

Teams ran the ball.

Teams put Purdue away.

Now Barry Odom enters year two, and the first goal is simple – Be competitive again.

HEAD COACH:

• Barry Odom, entering year two at Purdue
• Purdue went 2-10 last season.
• The Boilermakers finished 0-9 in the Big Ten.
• Purdue has not had a winning record since 2022.

Odom inherited a tough job.

This was not a quick-fix situation. Purdue had slipped badly, and the Big Ten is not getting easier. Oregon, USC, UCLA and Washington are in the league now. The middle of the conference is deeper. The top of the conference is loaded.

That makes rebuilding harder.

But year two still has to look different.

Purdue does not need to suddenly become a Big Ten contender. That is not realistic. But the Boilermakers need to look organized. They need to look tougher. They need to stop getting pushed around. They need to stop watching games get away from them in the second half.

The offense averaged 339 yards per game, which is not good, but it was not completely hopeless. The scoring was the bigger issue.

The defense was the bigger problem.

When you allow 33 points and 436 yards per game, the offense has to chase. When the offense has to chase, the quarterback gets put in bad spots. When the quarterback gets put in bad spots, turnovers and empty possessions follow.

That is how a bad team stays bad.

Odom has to break that cycle.

QUARTERBACK

The best news for Purdue is that Ryan Browne is back.

That does not mean everything is fixed.

But it does give the Boilermakers an experienced quarterback in a year when a lot around him is changing.

Browne completed 58.9% of his passes last season for 2,153 yards, nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions. For his Purdue career, he has 13 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.

Those numbers are not good enough.

But he has played. He has taken Big Ten snaps. He has seen what this league looks like. On a team trying to climb out of the basement, that matters.

The question is whether experience turns into improvement.

Browne did not throw multiple touchdown passes in a Big Ten game last season. He went 12-of-40 on deep balls with four touchdowns and two interceptions. In a clean pocket, he completed about 66% of his passes, but still had six touchdowns and six interceptions.

That is the part that has to change.

When Purdue protects him, Browne has to reward the offense with better decisions.

Under pressure, the numbers were rough. Browne completed 38.9% of his passes with three touchdowns and four interceptions.

That is where defenses could really squeeze Purdue.

Pressure him, force him off schedule, make him play fast, and the offense struggled.

So this season is about two things.

Purdue has to protect him better.

Browne has to be better when he is protected.

If both happen, the offense can improve.

If neither happens, this is going to look too much like last year.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense has to replace Devin Mockobee.

Mockobee had been the steady piece in the Purdue backfield for years. Now the Boilermakers have to rebuild the running game with transfers and new roles.

Jerrick Gibson comes in from Texas. Fame Ijeboi comes in from Minnesota after rushing for 441 yards on 97 carries last season. Travis Terrell also comes in from Jackson State.

That gives Purdue options.

Now one of them has to become the guy.

The Boilermakers passed on 55% of their plays last season, and a lot of that was because they were behind. They cannot live that way again. They need a run game that keeps them out of obvious passing situations and keeps Browne from having to carry the whole offense.

At receiver, Purdue hit the portal hard.

Bisi Owens comes in from Penn. Asaad Waseem comes in from Florida Atlantic. Xavier Townsend comes in from Iowa State. De’Nylon Morrissette also returns after being part of the receiver group last season.

That room is new.

But new is not automatically bad.

Purdue needed more playmaking. It needed more separation. It needed more explosiveness. The Boilermakers could not keep relying on the same formula and expecting a different result.

The offensive line also has a lot of moving parts.

Joey Tanona and Ethan Trent are the returning starters, and Purdue added multiple offensive linemen through the portal to rebuild the group.

That may be the most important position group on the team.

If the line improves, Browne improves. If Browne improves, the receivers have a chance. If the running game improves, the defense gets more rest.

Everything starts there.

DEFENSE

The defense has to be dramatically better.

There is no other way to say it.

Purdue gave up 33.2 points per game and 436 yards per game last season. Opponents ran the ball on 59% of their plays, which shows how often Purdue was playing from behind and how little resistance the defense gave once teams decided to lean on the run.

That cannot happen again.

The returning pieces start with Ian Jeffries, CJ Madden, Charles Correa and Hudauri Hines.

Correa is the big name.

He is back after a 96-tackle season, and Purdue needs him to be the tone-setter. On a defense that got pushed around too often, having a productive linebacker back matters.

The portal additions could be important too.

Elo Modozie comes in from Georgia, and Keyshawn Burgos comes in from Virginia Tech. Those are Power Four defensive line additions, and Purdue needs them to matter immediately.

This team has to be better up front.

It has to force more uncomfortable downs. It has to stop allowing teams to run the ball whenever they want. It has to create more negative plays.

At linebacker, Anthony Speca comes in from Penn State, and Jojo Hayden comes in from Illinois. Those additions should help a defense that needed more physicality and depth.

In the secondary, Smiley Bradford and Hudauri Hines are back.

But the secondary can only do so much if the front is not better.

Purdue’s defense does not have to become great overnight.

It just has to stop being the reason games are over early.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is not impossible.

But it is not easy either.

Purdue opens with Indiana State at home, then hosts Wake Forest. After that, the Boilermakers go to UCLA, then host Notre Dame on Sept. 26.

That Notre Dame game is a monster.

The Irish may be one of the best teams in the country, and Purdue will have to deal with them early. But the first month still gives the Boilermakers a chance to start better than last year.

Three of the first four games are at home.

Five of the first seven are at home.

That matters for a team trying to rebuild confidence.

After Notre Dame, Purdue goes to Illinois, then hosts Minnesota and Washington. After a bye, the Boilermakers go to Penn State on Halloween.

Then comes the final month: Maryland at home, Iowa on the road, Wisconsin at home and Indiana on the road.

There are a few interesting schedule notes.

Purdue does not play Ohio State, Oregon or Michigan.

That helps.

But the Boilermakers still have Notre Dame, Penn State, Iowa and Indiana away from home or in tough spots. Three of the final five games are on the road: at Penn State, at Iowa and at Indiana.

That is a tough finish.

The path to improvement probably has to come early.

Indiana State has to be a win. Wake Forest is important. Minnesota, Maryland and maybe one of the other home games have to be real targets.

If Purdue is still searching for confidence by November, the back end of the schedule could be rough.

OUTLOOK

This is a hard preview to write because the optimism has to be realistic.

Purdue can be better.

That does not mean Purdue is going to be good.

The Boilermakers have an experienced quarterback in Ryan Browne. They have a new running back group with Jerrick Gibson, Fame Ijeboi and Travis Terrell. They added receivers. They added offensive linemen. They added defensive front-seven pieces from bigger programs.

That is the positive case.

The concern is everything else.

The offense could not score enough last season. Browne threw more interceptions than touchdowns. The defense got gashed. Opponents ran the ball whenever they wanted. Purdue has not won a Big Ten game in two years.

Those are not small problems.

The best-case scenario is that Browne becomes more efficient, the new running backs give Purdue real balance, one or two transfer receivers become reliable targets, and the defense gets immediate help from Modozie, Burgos, Speca and Hayden.

If that happens, Purdue can be more competitive.

It can finally get a Big Ten win.

Maybe it can push toward four or five wins if things break right.

The worst-case scenario is that the quarterback numbers stay the same, the line still struggles, the run game never settles, and the defense remains too easy to run on.

If that happens, this could be another long season.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Things feel a lot different at Penn State.

For years, the conversation around the Nittany Lions was simple.

When is James Franklin going to win the big one?

That question is gone now.

Not because Penn State won the big one.

Because Franklin is gone.

Matt Campbell is now the head coach. Rocco Becht is now the quarterback. A huge chunk of the Iowa State roster followed Campbell to State College. This is not just a normal coaching change.

This feels like a program reset.

Penn State went 7-6 last season and 3-6 in the Big Ten, and the year never came close to matching the preseason expectations. The Nittany Lions started with playoff hopes, but injuries, inconsistency and a shocking loss to UCLA changed everything.

Now the program looks completely different.

New coach.

New quarterback.

New offensive identity.

New defensive pieces.

Same expectations.

That is the hard part.

HEAD COACH

• Matt Campbell, entering year one at Penn State
• Penn State went 7-6 last season.
• The Nittany Lions finished 3-6 in the Big Ten.
• Campbell went 72-55 at Iowa State.
• Penn State has only a few true returning starters from last year’s team.

This is one of the most fascinating hires in the Big Ten.

Campbell did a strong job at Iowa State. That is a hard place to win, and he turned the Cyclones into a program that could be competitive in the Big 12. He developed players. He built toughness. He won enough to become a major name for bigger jobs.

Now he gets one.

Penn State is not Iowa State.

That cuts both ways.

The resources are bigger. The recruiting ceiling is bigger. The fan base is bigger. The brand is bigger.

But the expectations are bigger too.

At Iowa State, being competitive mattered. At Penn State, being competitive is not enough. This program expects to win big. It expects to compete for the playoff. It expects to matter nationally.

That is why this year is so interesting.

Campbell did not come alone. He brought a lot of familiar players with him, especially on offense. That gives Penn State more continuity than most first-year coaching staffs would have.

But it also raises the question.

Is this Penn State with Iowa State pieces?

Or is this Iowa State wearing Penn State uniforms?

That may sound harsh, but it is the real question.

The Big Ten schedule is different. The weekly physicality is different. The expectations are different. Campbell has to prove that the system can scale up in a tougher environment.

QUARTERBACK

The quarterback is Rocco Becht.

That gives Penn State a very clear identity right away.

Becht is not some untested transfer. He has played a ton of college football. He has thrown more than 1,000 career passes and has 64 touchdowns with 27 interceptions in his college career.

That experience matters.

He is not going to walk into a Big Ten road game and look overwhelmed by the moment. He has been in close games. He has run Campbell’s offense. He knows what the staff wants.

That is the good part.

The numbers also show why there are questions.

Becht completed about 60.7% of his career passes at Iowa State. Last year, he ranked only 58th nationally in total pass attempts and 92nd in completion percentage. That is not elite efficiency.

The pressure numbers are the bigger concern.

He was under pressure on about 40% of his throws last season, and in those situations, he threw zero touchdowns and four interceptions. He also completed only 36% of his deep balls, going 16-of-44 with six touchdowns and two picks.

That is the line between solid and special.

Penn State does not need Becht to become the best quarterback in the country. But it does need him to be better than simply functional. If the Nittany Lions want to push toward the top of the Big Ten, Becht has to create enough explosives and avoid the mistakes that can kill drives.

He can keep Penn State in games.

The question is whether he can win the games Penn State has been trying to win for years.

That is a very different standard.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense has a lot of Iowa State flavor.

That is not necessarily a bad thing.

Start at running back.

Quinton Martin Jr. gives Penn State one returning option after rushing for 103 yards as a freshman in the Pinstripe Bowl against Clemson. He is one of the few Penn State offensive pieces who was already in the program and still figures to matter.

Then comes the Iowa State connection.

Carson Hansen comes over after rushing for more than 1,700 yards and 19 touchdowns with the Cyclones. He should be a major part of the offense right away.

James Peoples also comes in from Ohio State, giving the backfield another talented option.

That should be a good room.

It has to be.

Campbell’s teams have generally wanted to run the ball, and Penn State ran it on 57% of its plays last season. The Nittany Lions threw only about 25.7 passes per game, so this offense is probably still going to lean on the ground game and the tight ends.

Speaking of tight ends, that might be the most interesting part of the roster.

Benjamin Brahmer and Gabe Burkle both followed Campbell from Iowa State. Those two were major pieces of the Cyclones’ passing game, and they give Becht immediate familiarity. That matters a lot.

A quarterback changing schools with his tight ends is not normal.

Penn State also brings in Chase Sowell and has Brett Eskildsen in the receiver mix. Again, there is a lot of Iowa State carryover here.

The offensive line has to come together.

Anthony Donkoh is the one returning starter up front, and that is a good piece to have. Malachi Goodman and Trevor Buhr are also expected to factor in after coming in as transfers.

The concern is whether this group can be physical enough quickly.

Penn State scored 29 points per game last season, but the offense averaged only 353 yards per game. That is not good enough if the goal is to compete at the top of the Big Ten.

The Iowa State offense last season averaged fewer points than Penn State, but more yards.

So the question is simple.

Can Campbell’s offense become more explosive with Penn State talent?

If the answer is yes, this team becomes very interesting.

If the answer is no, Penn State may still feel stuck in the same place — just with different people.

DEFENSE

This side of the ball is basically being rebuilt too.

Penn State does have a couple of important returning pieces in the secondary.

Audavion Collins is back. So is Zion Tracy.

Those two give the Nittany Lions at least some continuity on the back end, and that matters when so much else is changing.

But the defense also has a heavy Iowa State influence.

The top four tacklers from Iowa State transferred to Penn State. That is wild. It also tells you how much Campbell believed in bringing the core of his program with him.

Kooper Ebel comes in at linebacker. Caleb Bacon is also part of the defensive front-seven picture. Tony Rojas gives Penn State a familiar linebacker name from last year’s roster, and he should be one of the key pieces in the middle of the defense.

In the secondary, Marcus Neal Jr. comes over after earning All-Big 12 recognition at Iowa State.

That is not just depth.

That is real production.

Penn State also added multiple defensive tackles through the portal, clearly trying to get bigger and stronger up front. That has to work because the Big Ten will test you there every week.

The comparison point is interesting.

Iowa State allowed 21.4 points per game and 370 yards per game last season. That is solid. Penn State’s defense was better in yardage allowed last year, giving up 326 yards per game, but this is not the same roster anymore.

So the question is not really what Penn State did last year.

The question is whether Campbell’s defensive core can translate.

Can Iowa State’s best tacklers become Big Ten answers?

Can Penn State’s returning defensive backs help hold everything together?

Can the transfer defensive tackles make the front sturdy enough?

There is enough talent here to be good.

But there is enough new here to be nervous.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is the biggest reason to believe Penn State can start fast.

The Nittany Lions open with Marshall at home, then go to Temple on Sept. 12. After that, they host Buffalo and Wisconsin.

That means three of the first four games are at home.

The Temple game is interesting because it is on the road, and I always like when a Power Four program is willing to go play a Group of Five team away from home. Temple has gotten some big programs to do that, and Penn State is one of them.

After Wisconsin, Penn State goes to Northwestern on Oct. 2.

So the first five games are Marshall, Temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin and Northwestern.

Penn State fans are going to expect 5-0.

They should.

That does not mean it will be automatic, but if this team wants to be taken seriously in the Big Ten, that is the start it needs.

Then comes the real test.

USC comes to Beaver Stadium on Oct. 10.

That is a massive game. It is a long trip for the Trojans, and it should be one of the first real measuring-stick moments for Campbell’s new team.

One week later, Penn State goes to Michigan.

That back-to-back stretch will tell us a lot.

After a bye, the Nittany Lions host Purdue on Halloween, go to Washington, then host Minnesota and Rutgers before finishing at Maryland.

The schedule is favorable in one major way.

Penn State does not play Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana.

That is a huge deal.

In this version of the Big Ten, avoiding those three teams matters. The Nittany Lions still have USC, Michigan and Washington, but they miss the top of the league.

That gives Penn State a real chance to outperform expectations if the new roster comes together quickly.

OUTLOOK

I understand why people are split on Penn State.

On one hand, this is a major reset.

New coach. New quarterback. New offense. New defensive core. New identity. A roster that looks like a Penn State-Iowa State hybrid.

That is a lot to process.

On the other hand, this is not a normal reset with no continuity.

Campbell brought his quarterback. He brought his tight ends. He brought key defenders. He brought players who already know what he wants. That can speed things up.

The best-case scenario is that Rocco Becht gives Penn State steady quarterback play, Carson Hansen and Quinton Martin Jr. power a strong run game, Benjamin Brahmer and Gabe Burkle become safety blankets in the passing game, and the Iowa State defensive transfers immediately raise the floor.

If that happens, Penn State can be a top-25 team and maybe more.

The worst-case scenario is that the offense looks too much like Iowa State’s offense, Becht is only average against Big Ten pressure, the line takes time to settle, and the defense is not as strong as it was under the old version of Penn State.

That is possible too.

If Campbell can pair his system with Penn State’s resources, this can work.

Maybe quickly.

But the USC-Michigan stretch is where we find out.

Start 5-0, split those two, and Penn State becomes one of the more interesting stories in the Big Ten.

Lose early, look clunky, and people will start wondering whether this is a rebuild that needs more time.

Either way, Penn State is different now.

And different might be exactly what this program needed.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

There may not be a better “so close” team in college football than Oregon.

The Ducks have been right there.

They are 17-1 in Big Ten play over the last two seasons. Their only losses the last two years came to the last two national champions: Ohio State two years ago and Indiana last season.

Oregon has not been exposed. It has not been falling short against average teams. It has not been losing random games it has no business losing.

The Ducks have been elite.

They have just run into the one team that ended up winning the whole thing.

At some point, though, that has to turn into a title.

That is the standard now.

Dan Lanning has built one of the best rosters in the country. Oregon has the quarterback. It has the receivers. It has the running backs. It may have the best defensive line in college football. It has one of the most talented secondaries in the Big Ten.

There is no reason to be shy about the expectation.

Oregon can win the national championship.

Now the Ducks have to actually do it.

HEAD COACH

• Dan Lanning, entering year five at Oregon
• Oregon went 13-2 last season.
• The Ducks finished 8-1 in the Big Ten.
• Oregon is 17-1 in Big Ten play over the last two seasons.
• Lanning is 48-8 in four years at Oregon.

This is where the conversation around Lanning gets interesting.

There is no hot seat. There should not be a hot seat. That would be ridiculous.

He is 48-8 at Oregon. The Ducks are recruiting at an elite level. They have transitioned into the Big Ten without blinking. They have been one of the most consistent programs in the country.

But when you are this good, the questions change.

It is no longer, “Can Oregon compete?”

Of course Oregon can compete.

It is no longer, “Can Oregon handle the Big Ten?”

The Ducks have already answered that.

The question is whether Oregon can win the final game.

That is the only thing missing.

The offense averaged 35 points per game last season and 448 yards per game. The defense allowed only 18.2 points per game and 275 yards per game.

Those are championship-level numbers.

The roster is loaded again.

That is why anything short of being in the national title conversation would feel like a disappointment.

QUARTERBACK

The quarterback is Dante Moore.

That alone puts Oregon in the national championship conversation.

Moore completed 71.8% of his passes last season with 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has the kind of arm talent and pedigree that makes NFL people pay attention, and he may be one of the top quarterbacks in the country going into the season.

But this is not about whether he can play.

He can play.

The question is whether he can clean up the moments that kept Oregon from being even better.

In Oregon’s toughest games last season — Texas Tech, two games against Indiana, and the rainy road game at Iowa — Moore threw three touchdowns and five interceptions.

In the other games, he threw 27 touchdowns and five interceptions.

That is the next step.

Oregon does not need Moore to dominate the teams the Ducks already outclass. It needs him to be at his best when the opponent has the athletes to make him uncomfortable.

Moore completed 75% of his passes in a clean pocket, but still threw seven interceptions in those situations. That is the part that has to improve. When he has time, when he can read it, when he has this much talent around him, he has to make the boring play if the big one is not there.

Under pressure, Moore completed 57.5% of his passes with three touchdowns and three interceptions. You’d love to see the TD to INT ratio improve under duress.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The receiver room is absurd.

Evan Stewart is back after missing last season with an injury. The last time he was fully healthy, he caught 48 passes for 613 yards and five touchdowns. Adding him back to this offense is almost unfair.

Dakorien Moore is back after catching 34 passes for 497 yards and three touchdowns.

Jeremiah McClellan is back after catching 38 passes for 557 yards and three touchdowns.

That is a lot of speed, a lot of skill and a lot of stress for defensive coordinators.

There are not many teams in the country that can match that kind of receiver talent. And when the quarterback is Dante Moore, every coverage decision feels dangerous.

Play too aggressively, and Oregon can beat you over the top.

Sit back, and Moore can pick you apart.

The running back room is not exactly lacking either.

Jordan Davison ran for 667 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. That touchdown number matters. Oregon can move the ball through the air, but Davison gives the Ducks a finisher near the goal line.

Dierre Hill Jr. is also back after rushing for 656 yards and five touchdowns.

That gives Oregon two backs capable of carrying real work.

The offensive line has to replace some pieces, but it has a major anchor in Iapani Laloulu Jr., a Remington finalist at center. That is the kind of player you want leading a reworked group.

Dave Iuli and Teague Ferguson are also part of the projected front, and Oregon has recruited too well for the offensive line to suddenly become a major weakness.

The offense is going to be good.

The only question is whether it is good enough in the biggest games.

Because that is the standard now.

DEFENSE

This defense might be better than the offense.

That sounds strange when the offense has Dante Moore and that receiver room, but it might be true.

Oregon brings back a ridiculous amount of talent on defense, especially up front.

Bear Alexander is back.

Matayo Uiagalelei is back.

A’Mauri Washington is back.

That defensive line has a chance to be one of the best in the country. Maybe the best.

That matters because Oregon was already excellent defensively last season. Opponents averaged only 18.2 points per game and 275 yards per game. They completed just 51.6% of their passes and averaged only 5.5 yards per attempt.

The Ducks allowed just 155 passing yards per game.

That is elite.

And now most of the defense is back.

The linebacker group has Jerry Mixon and Teitum Tuioti. The secondary has Brandon Finney Jr., Aaron Flowers and Ify Obidegwu.

Then Oregon adds Koi Perich from Minnesota, who could step into a huge role in the back end after the loss of Dillon Thieneman.

That is the kind of addition that shows where Oregon is as a program.

The Ducks are not just replacing players.

They are replacing stars with other stars.

This defense has everything it needs to be dominant: pass rush, depth, length, athletes in space and playmakers in the secondary.

If the defensive line is as good as it looks on paper, Oregon is going to be a nightmare.

Because if you cannot block the Ducks up front, you are not going to have enough time to test the secondary.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is challenging, but it is manageable for a team this talented.

Oregon opens with Boise State on Sept. 5. That is not a normal opener. Boise State should expect to be one of the best teams in the new-look Pac-12 and could be a playoff contender.

Then the Ducks go to Oklahoma State on Sept. 12.

Oregon crushed Oklahoma State last year, but this version should be different. The Cowboys brought over a lot from North Texas, including the offensive mind and quarterback that helped that program reach the American title game.

After Portland State, the Ducks go to USC on Sept. 26.

That is the first massive Big Ten test.

After a bye, Oregon hosts UCLA and Nebraska, then goes to Illinois on Oct. 24.

Then comes a huge stretch.

Northwestern comes to Eugene on Halloween, and then Oregon goes to Ohio State on Nov. 7 for one of the biggest games of the season.

That is a national headline game.

A playoff-level game.

Maybe a Big Ten title preview.

After that, Oregon hosts Michigan, goes to Michigan State, and finishes at home against Washington.

The schedule has a few things that stand out.

First, there are no back-to-back road games.

That is big.

Second, the two toughest road games are probably USC and Ohio State, and they are spaced out by more than a month.

Third, the Michigan and Washington games are both at home.

That does not make the schedule easy.

But it does make it manageable for a team that expects to win the Big Ten.

OUTLOOK

Oregon has everything.

That is the honest answer.

The Ducks have a Heisman-level quarterback. They have one of the best receiver rooms in the country. They have two productive running backs. They have a Remington finalist at center. They have a defensive line that could wreck games by itself. They have one of the best returning defenses in the country. They have a coach who has already proven he can win at an elite level.

This is not a “maybe in a year or two” roster.

This is a right-now roster.

The best-case scenario is that Dante Moore becomes the best quarterback in college football, the receivers overwhelm defenses, the run game stays efficient, and the defensive line becomes the best unit in the country.

If that happens, Oregon can win the national championship.

The worst-case scenario is that Moore still has a few turnover issues in the biggest games, the offensive line takes longer to settle than expected, and the road trips to USC and Ohio State keep Oregon from winning the Big Ten.

But even that version is probably still a playoff team.

That is how high the floor is.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

It is almost impossible to believe Jeremiah Smith still has another year of college football.

That is how good he is.

He already feels like an NFL player who just happens to still be wearing an Ohio State uniform. And if the Buckeyes are going to get back to the national championship game, he is going to be one of the biggest reasons why.

Ohio State went 12-2 last season and finished 9-0 in the Big Ten during the regular season. The Buckeyes lost their final two games, but context matters. Those losses came to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game and Miami in the Cotton Bowl.

Those were the two teams that ended up playing for the national championship.

So this was not some collapse.

But in Columbus, the standard is different.

Ohio State was coming off a national championship season. It had finally beaten Michigan again. It had one of the best defenses in the country. It had a quarterback playing at an elite level. It had the best receiver in college football.

And still, because the Buckeyes did not win it all again, the season felt incomplete.

That is life at Ohio State.

HEAD COACH

• Ryan Day, entering year eight at Ohio State
• Day is 82-12 with the Buckeyes.
• Ohio State went 12-2 last season.
• The Buckeyes went 9-0 in the Big Ten during the regular season.
• Ohio State has won double-digit games in every full season since 2011.

Ryan Day finally got the Michigan win last season.

He had been carrying that record around for years, and it had become the thing people used against him no matter how much Ohio State won. Last year, he finally got over that hump.

But that did not end the pressure.

Nothing ends the pressure at Ohio State.

Day is 82-12, which is ridiculous by almost any normal standard. But five of those losses came to Michigan, and he is 6-5 in bowl games. That is why the conversation around him never feels as simple as “look at the record.”

The expectations are national championship expectations every year.

This year is no different.

Ohio State averaged 30.6 points per game last season and 405 yards per game. The Buckeyes were elite on third down, converting 51.7% of their chances, which ranked second nationally. They also completed 76% of their passes as a team, the best mark in the country.

That is the good.

The run game was more ordinary.

Ohio State averaged 145.3 rushing yards per game, ranking in the 70s nationally. That is not bad, but it is not what you expect from a team with this kind of talent.

That is the offensive question.

Can Ohio State run it well enough when the games get biggest?

QUARTERBACK

Julian Sayin is the reason Ohio State can win the whole thing.

He was unbelievable last season.

Sayin completed 77% of his passes for 3,610 yards, 32 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Those are elite numbers. And when you combine that accuracy with the receivers he has around him, the passing game becomes a nightmare to defend.

The interesting part is how he performed in the biggest games.

Against Texas, Michigan, Indiana and Miami, Sayin threw six touchdowns and four interceptions. In the other games, he threw 26 touchdowns and only four interceptions.

That does not mean he was bad in the biggest games.

But it does show the standard.

Ohio State does not need Sayin to dominate Ball State and Kent State. It needs him to be great against Texas, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan and whoever shows up in the playoff.

The pressure numbers are impressive.

Sayin completed 58.9% of his passes under pressure last season, with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. That ranked among the best marks in the country. He also had one of the highest touchdown totals under pressure nationally.

That is not normal.

Most quarterbacks fall apart when the pocket gets muddy. Sayin did not.

And when teams did not get pressure, he was surgical. In a clean pocket, he completed better than four out of every five passes.

That is the problem for defenses.

If you do not pressure him, he picks you apart.

If you do pressure him, he is still good enough to beat you.

That is why Ohio State’s ceiling is so high.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense starts with Jeremiah Smith.

There is no need to overcomplicate it.

Smith had 89 catches, more than 1,200 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns last season. He already has more than 27 career touchdown catches at Ohio State.

He is the best receiver in college football.

He might be the best player in college football.

If he had been eligible for the last two NFL Drafts, he probably would have been one of the first names called.

That is the kind of player we are talking about.

Carnell Tate is gone to the NFL, but Ohio State is still Ohio State. Brandon Inniss is back, and the Buckeyes will have other talented receivers ready to step into larger roles. The passing game is going to be fine.

The run game is the bigger focus.

Bo Jackson had nearly 1,000 rushing yards last season and finished with the second-most rushing yards in the country among freshmen. He is a major piece of the offense.

But Ohio State still ranked only 52nd nationally in rushing yards per game and gave up 10 sacks combined against Indiana and Miami.

That is the issue.

The Buckeyes have to be more physical up front when the games get tight.

The offensive line has important pieces back, including Phillip Daniels, Carson Hinzman, Luke Montgomery and Austin Siereveld. With NFL influence on the offensive staff, including Arthur Smith, the expectation should be that Ohio State leans harder into being a more physical, more complete offense.

That is what separates great from championship-level.

Ohio State is going to throw it.

Sayin and Smith make that obvious.

But if the Buckeyes run it better, there may not be a defense in the country that can consistently deal with them.

DEFENSE

This is the side where expectations need to be realistic.

Last year’s Ohio State defense was absurd.

The Buckeyes allowed 10 points per game, the fewest in the country. They gave up only 223 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play, both near the top nationally. Opponents converted only 31% on third down and 37% on fourth down. Ohio State allowed just 69% red-zone scoring, also one of the best marks in the country.

The pass defense was ridiculous too.

The Buckeyes allowed only 5.5 yards per pass, ranking near the top of the country, and the sack rate was 9.35%.

That is elite defense in every possible way.

Now the defense has to replace a lot.

Ohio State lost multiple All-Americans from that group. That kind of production does not just get replaced without some drop-off.

The good news is the Buckeyes still have talent.

Kenyatta Jackson Jr. is back on the defensive line. Jermaine Mathews Jr. is back in the secondary. Jaylen McClain is back as well. Those are three important returning pieces.

The transfer additions should help too.

James Smith comes in from Alabama and should help on the defensive line. Terry Moore comes in from Duke and could play a key role in the secondary.

The defense probably will not allow 10 points per game again.

That is almost impossible.

But it does not need to.

If Ohio State’s offense is even better, the defense just has to remain elite enough. And under Matt Patricia, with this level of talent, there is no reason to expect a collapse.

The standard may fall from historically great to merely really good.

That is still good enough to win a national championship.

SCHEDULE

Nobody should say Ohio State does not play anybody this year.

That argument does not work with this schedule.

The Buckeyes open with Ball State, then go to Texas on Sept. 12. That is a massive early-season test against Arch Manning and a Texas team that should be good again.

After that, Ohio State hosts Kent State, then goes to Iowa on Oct. 3.

Kinnick Stadium is never fun.

Then comes the real meat of the schedule.

Ohio State hosts Illinois, goes to Indiana, gets a bye, then goes to USC on Halloween.

That is a brutal road stretch.

Indiana is the defending national champion. USC has one of the most experienced rosters in the country. And both games are away from Columbus.

Then Oregon comes to Ohio Stadium on Nov. 7.

That game could be enormous.

The Buckeyes then host Maryland and Northwestern, go to Nebraska, and finish with Michigan on Nov. 28.

So the road games are Texas, Iowa, Indiana, USC and Nebraska.

That is not easy.

And the home schedule includes Oregon and Michigan.

This is a real schedule. A hard schedule. A schedule that will test Ohio State before the playoff even begins.

The Buckeyes are talented enough to handle it.

But there are dangerous spots everywhere.

OUTLOOK

Ohio State can win the national championship.

That is the obvious part.

The Buckeyes have one of the best quarterbacks in the country. They have the best receiver in the country. They have a running back who could become a star. They have enough offensive line experience to be better up front. They have defensive talent everywhere, even after losing a historic group.

That is the optimistic case.

The concern is the same one that showed up late last season.

Can Ohio State be physical enough in the biggest moments? Can it run the ball when it has to? Can the offensive line hold up against elite defensive fronts? Can the defense replace that many stars and still be championship-level? Can Sayin take another step in the biggest games?

Those are fair questions.

The best-case scenario is that Sayin becomes the best quarterback in college football, Smith dominates every week, Jackson makes the run game more dangerous, the offensive line takes a step, and the defense under Patricia stays elite enough.

If that happens, Ohio State can win it all.

The worst-case scenario is that the run game is still not quite powerful enough, the offensive line struggles again against the best fronts, and the rebuilt defense is good but not special.

That would still probably mean a very good season.

That is the thing about Ohio State.

The floor is ridiculously high.

But the standard is not the floor.

The standard is the title.

Northwestern still feels like a program trying to figure out what it is after the end of the Pat Fitzgerald era.

There were real highs under Fitzgerald. Big Ten Championship Game appearances at Northwestern are not small things. That program reached a level most people never expected it to reach.

But the ending was rough.

Northwestern went 4-20 over Fitzgerald’s final two seasons, and the program has not really looked the same since.

Now David Braun is entering year four, and this season feels interesting for a few reasons.

The Wildcats went 7-6 last year and 4-5 in the Big Ten, so this is not a disaster. But in the new Big Ten, with Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA now part of the league, the climb is harder than it used to be.

Northwestern has a new offensive coordinator.

A new quarterback.

A proven running back.

A productive receiver.

And one brutal schedule quirk that could define the season.

HEAD COACH

• David Braun, entering year four at Northwestern
• Braun is 19-19 with the Wildcats.
• Northwestern went 7-6 last season.
• Chip Kelly is now the offensive coordinator.

Northwestern has been competitive under Braun. It has not fallen apart. It has found ways to win enough games to matter.

Now the question is whether the Wildcats can become more than just solid.

That starts with the offense.

Northwestern averaged only 21.8 points per game last season and 331 yards per game. Those numbers are not good enough in the Big Ten, especially when the schedule includes some of the best offenses in the country.

The defense was fine.

The offense needed life.

That is where Chip Kelly comes in.

This is the same Chip Kelly who helped turn Oregon into a national brand. The same Chip Kelly who changed how people thought about tempo and spacing. The same Chip Kelly who has been a head coach in college and the NFL.

Now he is being asked to fix Northwestern’s offense.

That is one of the most fascinating coordinator hires in the Big Ten.

QUARTERBACK

The quarterback is Aidan Chiles.

That is a big swing.

Chiles comes over from Michigan State, where he had flashes but also dealt with injuries. He had a concussion and foot issues last season, and that clearly affected the year.

But the talent is there.

Chiles has 27 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions in his college career. He also gives Northwestern some mobility, running 81 times for 227 yards and six touchdowns last season.

That part matters.

Northwestern needed more playmaking at quarterback, and Chiles brings that.

The advanced numbers are where the season probably gets decided.

In a clean pocket last year, Chiles completed 71% of his passes. That is excellent. If the protection is there, he can operate the offense and make throws.

Under pressure, that number dropped to 38%.

That is the concern.

Chiles also completed 10-of-33 deep balls, about 30%, with four touchdowns and no interceptions. That is not bad, but there is room for more. He can push the ball downfield. Northwestern needs him to hit a few more of those shots.

This is why the offensive line matters so much.

If Chiles is protected, this could work.

If he is under constant pressure, it gets much harder.

Kelly gives him an experienced offensive mind. Northwestern gives him a fresh start. The running game and receivers give him some help.

But Chiles still has to prove he can be consistent week after week in the Big Ten.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense has more pieces than people may realize.

Start with Caleb Komolafe.

He is back after rushing for 941 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. For a team breaking in a transfer quarterback and a new coordinator, that is a huge piece to have.

Komolafe gives Northwestern a dependable running back.

He gives the offense something it can lean on.

And under Chip Kelly, it will be interesting to see how he is used. Kelly’s best offenses have always created space in the run game. If Komolafe gets cleaner lanes, he could have a big season.

The Wildcats also have other options in the backfield, including Joseph Himon II and Gavin Sawchuk, who comes in from Florida State.

That gives Northwestern depth.

At receiver, Griffin Wilde is the name to know.

Wilde had 71 catches for 880 yards and eight touchdowns last season. He ranked among the top 30 nationally in receiving yards per game, which is not something people usually associate with Northwestern.

He is a real weapon.

And now he gets paired with a quarterback who can push the ball down the field and an offensive coordinator who knows how to create mismatches.

That should be exciting.

Hayden Eligon II is also back after a 37-catch season, and Ricky Ahumarae gives Northwestern another receiver option. This is not an empty receiver room.

The offensive line is the concern.

Northwestern does not bring back much proven production up front, and that is dangerous when your quarterback’s numbers fall sharply under pressure.

Ezomo Oratokhai is one of the key returning pieces inside. The Wildcats also added Grant Seagren from Oklahoma State, and he could be a major factor at left tackle.

That may be the whole offense.

If the line holds up, Chiles, Komolafe and Wilde give Northwestern enough to be dangerous.

If the line does not hold up, the offense may still look too much like last year’s version, even with Chip Kelly calling it.

DEFENSE

The defense was not the biggest problem last season.

Northwestern allowed 20.9 points per game and 342.3 yards per game. Those are solid numbers, especially for a team whose offense did not always give it a ton of help.

But there is one big warning sign.

Opponents completed 66% of their passes against Northwestern last season.

That ranked near the bottom of the country.

That has to change, especially with this schedule.

The defensive front has some real pieces.

Michael Kilbane is back after finishing with 7.5 tackles for loss. He gives Northwestern a disruptive presence up front.

Brendan Flakes started every game last season and brings experience inside. That matters for a defense that needs to stay physical against the run.

The linebacker room has some key names too.

Brandon Brus has 97 career tackles, and Kobie McKinzie comes in as a grad transfer from Oklahoma. McKinzie has played on big stages and brings experience to the middle of the defense.

The secondary has talent, but it has to be better.

Josh Fussell Jr. was an honorable mention All-Big Ten type of player. Robert Fitzgerald had 115 tackles last season and is a major piece at safety. Damon Walters Jr. is back from injury, and Braden Turner had two interceptions last season.

So there are answers.

But there has to be more consistency.

Northwestern cannot allow easy completions all year and expect to survive road games at Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State. Those teams will punish soft coverage and missed assignments.

The defense is good enough to keep Northwestern in games.

The question is whether it can be good enough to steal one.

SCHEDULE

This schedule has one of the strangest and toughest quirks in the Big Ten.

Northwestern plays road games at Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State.

The Wildcats are the only Big Ten team that has to do that.

That is brutal.

Indiana is the defending national champion. Oregon will  be one of the best teams in the country. Ohio State is Ohio State.

Nobody wants that road trio.

That makes the rest of the schedule even more important.

Northwestern opens at home against South Dakota State, then hosts Colorado. After that, the Wildcats go to Indiana on Sept. 25 for their first road test.

Then they host Penn State and Ball State.

So four of the first five games are at home, but the one road game is a monster.

After that, Northwestern goes to Michigan State, hosts Rutgers, goes to Oregon on Halloween, hosts Iowa, goes to Ohio State, goes to Minnesota, and finishes at home against Illinois.

The path is pretty clear.

Northwestern has to win at home.

South Dakota State, Colorado, Ball State, Rutgers, Iowa and Illinois are the games that shape the season. Penn State at home is difficult, but it is still at Ryan Field. Michigan State on the road is a winnable type of Big Ten game if Northwestern is improved.

But the margin is thin.

The Wildcats probably cannot count on wins at Indiana, Oregon or Ohio State.

That means they have to do damage everywhere else.

OUTLOOK

I can see both sides with Northwestern.

Chip Kelly gives the offense a major upgrade in play-calling and creativity. Aidan Chiles gives the Wildcats a talented quarterback with Big Ten experience. Caleb Komolafe is a proven running back. Griffin Wilde is one of the better receivers in the league. The defense has enough returning pieces to be solid again.

That version of Northwestern can be a bowl team.

Maybe more.

The concern is the offensive line and the schedule.

Chiles has to be protected. The offense cannot waste another season averaging barely over 20 points per game. The defense has to stop allowing such a high completion percentage. And the Wildcats have to survive a schedule that sends them to Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State.

That is a lot.

The best-case scenario is that Kelly immediately improves the offense, Chiles becomes more efficient, Wilde turns into one of the best receivers in the Big Ten, Komolafe keeps the run game steady, and the defense stays solid enough to let Northwestern win close games.

If that happens, Northwestern can get back to a bowl.

The worst-case scenario is that the line struggles, Chiles is pressured too often, the offense still lacks consistency, and the road schedule overwhelms a team that cannot afford many mistakes.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.