Uthinkuknowsports

Category: College Football

  • Hawaii-Stanford preview: Can Warren, Cardinal keep up with Alejado, Rainbow Warriors?

    Hawaii-Stanford preview: Can Warren, Cardinal keep up with Alejado, Rainbow Warriors?

    Location: Stanford Stadium — Stanford, California
    Kickoff: Saturday, August 29 at 4 p.m. PT on ACC Network
    DraftKings line: Stanford -5.5
    Over/under: 49.5

    The Setup

    Hawai‘i beat Stanford 23-20 last season for its first win in the five-game series. All five previous meetings were played in Honolulu, making this the first matchup at Stanford.

    The Rainbow Warriors return quarterback Micah Alejado and receiver Pofele Ashlock. Stanford enters with another offensive transition and Michigan transfer Davis Warren competing at quarterback.

    What I’m Watching

    Can Stanford pressure Alejado and keep the score around 20?

    Hawai‘i’s passing game is built to score. Stanford’s best path is to control possession with Micah Ford, avoid a shootout and prevent Alejado from sitting comfortably in the pocket. If Stanford cannot generate pressure, Hawai‘i has enough continuity to attack a changing secondary.

    Three Stats to Know

    1. Alejado returns after a 3,106-yard season.
    He completed 66.3% of his passes with 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions, earning Mountain West Freshman of the Year honors.

    2. Ashlock is already one of the country’s most experienced receivers.
    He enters with 220 career catches, 2,288 yards and 23 touchdowns.

    3. Hawai‘i wants to throw.
    The Rainbow Warriors passed on approximately 63% of their plays last season, the fifth-highest rate among FBS teams.

    How the Game Is Decided

    Stanford has to run effectively, shorten the game and pressure Alejado without leaving Ashlock isolated against favorable coverage. If Hawai‘i forces Stanford to chase points, Warren will have to create more explosive passes than he did during his last full season at Michigan.

    Prediction

    This is one of Week 0’s most interesting games and should be far more competitive than the programs’ recent reputations suggest. Is Hawaii can push the tempo, Stanford will have to keep up. Can they? I like getting Hawaii and not even needing the Rainbow Warriors to win.

  • New Mexico State-Florida State preview: Can the Noles start hot before schedule toughens?

    New Mexico State-Florida State preview: Can the Noles start hot before schedule toughens?

    Location: Doak Campbell Stadium — Tallahassee, Florida
    Kickoff: Saturday, August 29 at 7 p.m. ET on The CW
    DraftKings line: Florida State -31.5
    Over/under: 53.5

    The Setup

    Few coaches enter this season under more pressure than Florida State’s Mike Norvell. This is a game the Seminoles are expected to win comfortably, but the performance will matter almost as much as the result.

    Both teams imported experienced quarterbacks: Trey Hedden from Furman for New Mexico State and Ashton Daniels from Auburn for Florida State.

    What I’m Watching

    Can Florida State establish a complete offense instead of depending on quarterback improvisation?

    Tommy Castellanos led the Seminoles with only 557 rushing yards last season. Daniels is another dangerous runner, but FSU needs its backs and offensive line to prevent the quarterback from becoming the entire ground game again.

    Three Stats to Know

    1. Daniels has produced 6,180 career yards.
    He accumulated 4,783 passing yards and 1,397 rushing yards across Stanford and Auburn.

    2. Duce Robinson is a legitimate No. 1 target.
    Robinson caught 56 passes for 1,081 yards and six touchdowns. His five 120-yard games were second-most nationally.

    3. Hedden’s interceptions came in clusters.
    He completed 68.3% of his passes for 2,967 yards, but threw 13 interceptions. Six came in just two games.

    How the Game Is Decided

    New Mexico State was good at preventing explosive plays last season, so Florida State may have to stay patient. Daniels must avoid the mistakes and short fields that allow a massive underdog to linger. If FSU runs effectively and creates one-on-one opportunities for Robinson, the talent difference should eventually take over.

    Prediction

    Florida State should win going away. The meaningful question is whether the Seminoles can play cleanly enough to cover more than four touchdowns. My official picks will be released on my social channels.

  • Sacramento State-Eastern Michigan Week 0 preview: Can Hornets win their FBS opener?

    Sacramento State-Eastern Michigan Week 0 preview: Can Hornets win their FBS opener?

    Location: Rynearson Stadium — Ypsilanti, Michigan
    Kickoff: Saturday, August 29 at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+
    DraftKings line: Eastern Michigan -8.5
    Over/under: 52.5

    The Setup

    Sacramento State’s first game as an FBS member is immediately a MAC conference game. The Hornets enter with first-year head coach Alonzo Carter and a signing class containing 44 newcomers.

    Eastern Michigan offers far more offensive continuity, beginning with returning quarterback Noah Kim.

    What I’m Watching

    Can Sacramento State make Eastern Michigan respect the pass?

    The Hornets have a proven running back in Rodney Curtis, but expected quarterback Carson Conklin struggled to push the ball downfield last season. EMU’s defensive plan should begin with loading the box and making Conklin prove he can beat single coverage.

    Three Stats to Know

    1. Curtis enters with 3,214 career rushing yards.
    That is the second-highest total among active Division I players. He also owns 17 career 100-yard games.

    2. The deep ball disappeared for Conklin.
    According to the PFF charting referenced in the video, he completed none of his 14 deep attempts last season.

    3. EMU finally returns its primary quarterback.
    Kim started every game in 2025, making this the first time in a decade that Eastern Michigan enters a season with the same primary starting quarterback. He threw for 2,817 yards and 18 touchdowns.

    How the Game Is Decided

    Eastern Michigan can control the game by taking away Curtis and forcing Sacramento State’s rebuilt offense into obvious passing situations. The Hornets need to create room for Curtis without becoming completely predictable. If Conklin cannot connect downfield, EMU will be able to commit more defenders to the run.

    Prediction

    This will not receive much national attention, but it is a real conference game with immediate standings implications. North Dakota State will get a lot of the moving-into-FBS attention, but don’t forget the Hornets. Still, this seems like a tough opener for a team new to FBS. EMU has Kim back and continuity on offense. I don’t love -8.5, but I could see Eastern winning by 10. Full picks will be on my social channels this week.

  • NCST-Virginia week 0 preview: Will Bailey, Wolfpack pull the upset, or are the Cinderella Cavaliers back again?

    NCST-Virginia week 0 preview: Will Bailey, Wolfpack pull the upset, or are the Cinderella Cavaliers back again?

    Scott Stadium — Charlottesville, Virginia
    Saturday, August 29 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
    DraftKings: Virginia -5.5 | Over/Under 53.5
    Coaches: Dave Doeren, NC State Year 14 | Tony Elliott, Virginia Year 5

    The Setup

    NC State won last year’s meeting 35-31 in Raleigh, sealing the game with an end-zone interception in the final minute. That matchup was considered a nonconference game. This relocated rematch will be played in Charlottesville and count in the ACC standings.

    What I’m Watching

    Can NC State protect CJ Bailey and find a replacement for the production Hollywood Smothers carried to Texas?

    Bailey gives NC State legitimate quarterback continuity, but Virginia returns the more experienced defensive core. The Cavaliers also added Missouri transfer Beau Pribula, whose running ability changes the numbers a defense must account for.

    Personnel Snapshot

    NC State returns eight starters: five offense and three defense. Three offensive linemen—Teague Andersen, Kamen Smith and Spike Sowells Jr.—return alongside Bailey and receiver Keenan Jackson.

    All three defensive returners are defensive backs: Asaad Brown Jr., Jackson Vick and Ronnie Royal III. That is useful secondary experience, but NC State does not have a returning defensive lineman or linebacker that started half of the games or more last season.

    Virginia also returns eight, but its split is three offense and five defense. All three offensive returners are linemen: McKale Boley, Noah Josey and Drake Metcalf.

    The Cavaliers return linemen Fisher Camac and Jason Hammond, linebacker Kam Robinson and defensive backs Ethan Minter and Donavon Platt. Virginia’s experience is concentrated exactly where it needs it against Bailey.

    Three Stats to Know

    • NC State has won four consecutive games against Virginia and eight straight season openers.
    • The Wolfpack went 7-2 when Bailey avoided a quarterback turnover and 1-3 when he threw an interception or lost a fumble.
    • Virginia allowed opponents to convert only 33.1% of third downs, the fourth-best defensive rate in the FBS.

    How the Game Is Decided

    NC State must stay ahead of the chains and avoid asking Bailey to repeatedly beat an experienced secondary on third-and-long. Of course, Bailey was also great on third and long last year, completing 68% of his passes on third and six or longer and throwing 4 TDs against 0 interceptions. Virginia’s path is to lean on its veteran line, use Pribula as part of the running game and make the Wolfpack replace Smothers’ production one difficult drive at a time. The home crowd also helps after the game was moved from Brazil.

    Prediction

    It’s hard not to love Bailey and the Wolfpack, back in place for a third year. Virginia’s schedule gives it some advantages down the road, but it felt like Tony Elliott’s bunch overachieved in 2025, as he got the most out of his roster. My early lean is to get the points on NCST.

  • North Dakota State-Jacksonville State Week 0 preview: The Bison start their FBS journey

    North Dakota State-Jacksonville State Week 0 preview: The Bison start their FBS journey

    Fargodome — Fargo, North Dakota
    Saturday, August 29 | 5:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. CT | CBS Sports Network
    DraftKings: North Dakota State -7 | Over/Under 46.5
    Coaches: Charles Kelly, Jacksonville State Year 2 | Tim Polasek, NDSU Year 3

    The Setup

    North Dakota State’s first game as an FBS member comes against a Jacksonville State program that already completed the same transition. Jacksonville State leads the series 2-1, but NDSU won the most recent meeting 37-10 in the 2015 FCS national championship game.

    What I’m Watching

    This should be decided by which team survives its missing backfield production.

    Jacksonville State no longer has Cam Cook’s 1,659 rushing yards. NDSU must replace drafted quarterback Cole Payton and receiver Bryce Lance. Both programs want to run, but both are replacing players who made that approach far more dangerous in 2025.

    Personnel Snapshot

    Jacksonville State returns offensive returners are quarterback Caden Creel, receiver Deondre Johnson and lineman Lucas Mrachkovskiy. Defensively, Jawaun Campbell, Walker O’Steen, Mac Sanders, Tre’Quon Fegans and Caleb Nix return.

    North Dakota State returns eight: three offense and five defense. All three offensive qualifiers are linemen: Griffin Empey, Josh Magin and Nate Tastad.

    The defense returns linemen Kelton McCaslin and Keenan Wilson, plus defensive backs Jaylin Crumby, Darius Givance and Donovan Woolen. That defensive continuity could be decisive against Creel’s option and quarterback-run packages.

    Three Stats to Know

    • Jacksonville State called runs on approximately 64% of its plays last season. NDSU was near 63% against FCS competition.
    • Creel produced six games with at least 100 passing yards and 100 rushing yards.
    • NDSU supplied two of the four FCS players drafted in 2026: Payton and Lance.

    How the Game Is Decided

    Jacksonville State needs Creel to make NDSU defend the entire field without turning the game into a series of obvious passing situations. NDSU needs its three returning linemen to stabilize a nearly brand-new backfield. Whichever team avoids negative runs and wins first down should control the pace.

    Prediction

    Many are going to run to the hype of North Dakota State playing its first ever FBS game, and it’s understandable. The environment in Fargo will be fun, and the atmosphere will be electric. But Jacksonville State just feels like the perfect elixir to that storm. Full predictions will be made on my social channels.

  • USC vs San Jose State preview: Will the Trojans run away early?

    USC vs San Jose State preview: Will the Trojans run away early?

    The Setup

    This feels like a now-or-never season for USC. The Trojans return Jayden Maiava, Lincoln Riley and offensive coordinator Luke Huard together for a third consecutive year—something no other FBS program can say.

    USC is 6-0 against San José State and has won nine consecutive season openers. The Spartans are replacing QB Walker Eget, who transferred to Duke, with former Hawai‘i quarterback Luke Weaver.

    What I’m Watching

    Can San José State make USC work for its points?

    The Trojans can attack this defense in either direction. Waymond Jordan and King Miller give USC an established running game, while Maiava is one of the country’s most aggressive deep passers.

    San José State does not return a defensive starter that started at least half of the team’s games last season.

    Three Stats to Know

    1. USC has rare continuity.
    We’ll say it again — the Trojans are the only FBS program returning the same starting quarterback, head coach and offensive coordinator for a third straight year. USC had one of the nation’s best offenses in 2025. Can it get revved up in the first four games — against overmatched competition — before USC reaches a make or break 6-game stretch?

    2. The rushing matchup heavily favors USC.
    Jordan and Miller combined for 1,548 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging 6.34 yards per carry. Last season, San José State allowed 157.9 rushing yards per game and 25 rushing touchdowns.

    3. USC wants to attack deep.
    According to the PFF numbers from 2025, Maiava attempted 76 passes at least 20 yards downfield—the fifth-most nationally. San José State allowed 42 completions of 20-plus yards. Can USC find the timing in the deep ball early?

    How the Game Is Decided

    San José State has to prevent explosive plays and create turnovers. USC went 7-0 in Maiava’s qualifying games without a quarterback turnover, but only 2-4 when he threw an interception or lost a fumble. If Maiava protects the football, the Spartans have no obvious way to take away both USC’s running game and its deep passing attack.

    Prediction

    USC feels likely to win going away. The question is whether the Trojans can cover a number that moved from 35.5 to 38.5 points. I’ll make my official pick on my @uthinkuknowsports TikTok, Instagram, YouTube and Facebook page later this week.

  • North Carolina vs. TCU Week 0 Game Preview: Will Tar Heels show improvement in year 2 under Bill?

    North Carolina vs. TCU Week 0 Game Preview: Will Tar Heels show improvement in year 2 under Bill?

    Location: Aviva Stadium — Dublin, Ireland
    Kickoff: Saturday, August 29 at 11 a.m. CT on ESPN
    DraftKings line: TCU -7.5
    Over/under: 47.5

    The Setup

    This is an immediate rematch of last year’s dominant TCU’s win in Chapel Hill. The Horned Frogs outgained North Carolina 542-222 and controlled first downs 29-10 in a 48-14 win, but both offenses now feature different quarterbacks and play-callers. Gone are Josh Hoover (now at Indiana) and Gio Lopez (now at Wake Forest).

    For Bill Belichick and North Carolina, this is an immediate opportunity to prove the second season will not resemble the first in front of a national audience.

    What I’m Watching

    Can Bobby Petrino build a functional offense around Billy Edwards Jr.?

    North Carolina averaged only 19.3 points and 231 yards per game last season, while Petrino’s Arkansas offenses averaged over 30 points per game. Edwards was limited to two games at Wisconsin last year, but his healthy 2024 season at Maryland included 2,881 passing yards and seven consecutive 250-yard games.

    TCU counters with Harvard transfer Jaden Craig and an experienced offensive line. UNC’s best chance to disrupt that transition is edge rusher Melkart Abou Jaoude, who led the Tar Heels with 10.5 sacks last season.

    Three Stats to Know

    1. Who will handle travel better?
    Belichick has coached numerous games outside the United States during his NFL coaching career. Will that give UNC any kind of advantage with the game being played in Dublin? Also, heavy rain impacted last year’s Kansas State-Iowa State game. Will weather play a role this year?

    2. Edwards has already delivered in a major game.
    He completed 39 of 50 passes for 373 yards when Maryland upset USC 29-28 in 2024. He completed just 7 passes at Wisconsin last year in very limited action, playing in the Power 4’s worst offense. Can he still move an offense like he did with the Terps two years ago?

    3. UNC returns a proven pass rusher.
    Abou Jaoude recorded 10.5 sacks last season, fifth-most in the FBS. TCU’s three most experienced returning offensive linemen have made 86 combined college starts.

    How the Game Is Decided

    North Carolina has to prevent Craig from settling comfortably into the TCU offense. If Abou Jaoude and the Tar Heels can create pressure without constant blitzing, this could become a real test for a new quarterback. If Craig remains clean and UNC still cannot sustain drives, the rematch could begin looking too much like the original.

    Prediction

    It’s hard to pick UNC after seeing how much better TCU was last season, but Hoover is now at Indiana and Petrino should bring some life to an offense that was like watching paint dry in 2025. I’ll make my final pick the week of the game on @uthinkuknowsports on Tiktok/Instagram/Facebook/YouTube.

  • Wisconsin season outlook: Can the Badgers finally find an offense?

    Wisconsin season outlook: Can the Badgers finally find an offense?

    There is no way to sugarcoat this.

    Wisconsin was brutal to watch on offense last season.

    Not mediocre.

    Not inconsistent.

    Brutal.

    The Badgers averaged 12.8 points per game. They averaged only 253 yards per game. They averaged 3.3 yards per rush. They threw interceptions on almost 5% of their pass attempts.

    And somehow, they won four games.

    That may be the most Wisconsin stat imaginable, but it is not the good version of Wisconsin. This was not a team leaning on Ron Dayne, Montee Ball, Melvin Gordon, Jonathan Taylor or one of those classic offensive lines that made the program so easy to understand.

    This was different.

    Wisconsin did not have an identity.

    That is the most alarming part.

    The Badgers went 4-8 last season and 2-7 in the Big Ten. They have not won seven games in a season since 2020. They are 5-12 in Big Ten play over the last two years.

    Now Luke Fickell enters a massive season.

    The schedule gives Wisconsin a chance.

    The defense still has enough to believe in.

    But none of it matters if the offense looks anything like it did last year.

    HEAD COACH

    • Luke Fickell, entering year four at Wisconsin
    • Wisconsin went 4-8 last season.
    • The Badgers finished 2-7 in the Big Ten.
    • Fickell is 17-21 at Wisconsin.
    • Fickell is 80-46 as a college head coach.

    This feels like the year Wisconsin has to show something.

    It does not have to be a Big Ten title season. That is not the standard right now.

    But the Badgers have to look like the Badgers again.

    Or at least like a competent Big Ten team.

    The last two seasons have been rough. Wisconsin is 5-12 in conference play over that span, and last year’s offense was among the worst in the country. For a program that spent decades with one of the clearest identities in college football, that is hard to process.

    Wisconsin used to be easy to explain.

    Big offensive line. Physical backs. Play-action. Tough defense. Special teams. Win the line of scrimmage. Make opponents hate playing you.

    That was the brand.

    Now the Badgers are trying to rebuild almost everything at once.

    The offense has been completely reworked through the portal. The defense lost a ton of production but still has enough intriguing pieces. The schedule avoids some of the biggest monsters in the Big Ten.

    So the question is simple.

    Can Wisconsin take advantage?

    QUARTERBACK

    The likely answer at quarterback is Colton Joseph.

    And if Wisconsin is going to fix the offense, he probably has to be the guy who changes the whole feel of it.

    Joseph comes in from Old Dominion after throwing for 4,251 yards and 32 touchdowns last season. He also brings a major rushing element, with more than 1,600 career rushing yards and 24 rushing touchdowns.

    That is the part that makes him interesting.

    Wisconsin did not just need a quarterback who could complete safe throws. It needed a quarterback who could create something. It needed someone who could stress defenses. It needed someone who could help build an offense from the ground up.

    Joseph gives the Badgers a different kind of option.

    Now, the competition level changes.

    Doing it at Old Dominion is not the same as doing it in the Big Ten. That does not mean he cannot translate. It just means Wisconsin cannot assume the numbers automatically follow him.

    The other part of this is health.

    Wisconsin has had a hard time keeping quarterbacks healthy under Fickell. That matters even more with Joseph because his legs are part of the appeal. You want him running enough to make defenses worry. You do not want him taking so many hits that the whole season gets thrown off course.

    The Badgers need him upright.

    They need him confident.

    And they need him to give this offense something it did not have last year: life.

    THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

    The offense has been rebuilt.

    There is really no other way to put it.

    Wisconsin brought in transfer offensive linemen, transfer running backs and transfer receivers. That makes sense when the offense was as bad as it was last season.

    You do not tweak that.

    You overhaul it.

    The returning pieces start with Chris Brooks Jr. at receiver and offensive linemen Colin Cubberly and Emerson Mandell. That is not a ton, but at least the Badgers have a few familiar names to build around.

    The backfield is where things get interesting.

    Abu Sama III comes in from Iowa State and should be the lead back. He has nearly 2,000 career rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, and he gives Wisconsin a legitimate option in a room that needed fresh energy.

    Bryan Jackson comes in from USC, and Nate Palmer should also be involved.

    That is important because Wisconsin cannot ask Joseph to be the entire run game. The Badgers need a real running back rotation. They need to be able to line up and run the ball again.

    Not just because of nostalgia.

    Because it is hard to win in the Big Ten when you average 3.3 yards per rush.

    At receiver, Chris Brooks Jr. returns, and Eugene Hilton Jr. is also in the mix. Shamar Rigby comes in from Oklahoma State as another transfer option.

    The receiver room does not need to be elite right away. But it does need to be better than last year. Wisconsin needs someone who can win outside, someone who can stretch the field, and someone who can make Joseph’s life easier.

    The offensive line is probably the biggest swing factor.

    Wisconsin brought in multiple transfers, but Cubberly and Mandell give the Badgers at least some continuity. If the line is average, the offense can improve a lot. If the line is bad, the new quarterback and new running backs may not matter enough.

    That is the whole offensive story.

    The pieces are different.

    Now the results have to be different.

    DEFENSE

    The defense is the reason Wisconsin was not completely hopeless last season.

    The Badgers allowed 21.6 points per game and 323.6 yards per game. Those are solid numbers, especially considering how little help they got from the offense.

    But this unit has its own questions.

    Only Matthew Jung is listed as a returning defensive starter. That is a scary number.

    Still, the defense is not empty.

    Mason Posa is back after a productive season at linebacker. Cooper Catalano is another young linebacker who should matter. Hammond Russell IV comes in from West Virginia to help the defensive line. Charles Perkins should also be part of that group. Marvin Burks Jr. comes in from Missouri after starting 13 games.

    That is enough to build something.

    The run defense was actually strong last year, ranking near the top 15 nationally. That has to remain the foundation. Wisconsin cannot afford to get soft up front while trying to rebuild the offense.

    The pass defense is where things get more complicated.

    Opponents completed almost 70% of their passes against Wisconsin last season. That is a problem. The Badgers did not give up a ton of yards overall, but they allowed too many easy throws.

    They also did not take the ball away.

    Wisconsin averaged only 0.5 takeaways per game, one of the worst marks in the country.

    That is the difference between a good defense and a defense that actually wins games.

    The Badgers were disciplined. They committed only 3.6 penalties per game and averaged just 30 penalty yards per game. That is excellent.

    But discipline alone is not enough.

    Wisconsin has to create more disruption. More sacks. More hurried throws. More interceptions. More fumbles. More short fields for an offense that badly needs help.

    The defense should still be the better side of the ball.

    But it probably has to be more than solid.

    It has to be the stabilizer while the offense tries to figure itself out.

    SCHEDULE

    The schedule is the best thing Wisconsin has going for it.

    That might sound strange because the Badgers open with Notre Dame in Green Bay, and that is obviously a massive challenge.

    But after that?

    There is a path.

    Wisconsin hosts Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan after the Notre Dame game. Those have to be wins. Then the Badgers go to Penn State on Sept. 26 before hosting Michigan State on Oct. 3.

    After the bye, Wisconsin goes to UCLA, hosts USC, goes to Iowa, hosts Rutgers, then plays back-to-back road games at Maryland and Purdue before finishing at home against Minnesota.

    The important part is who is not on the schedule.

    No Ohio State.

    No Indiana.

    No Oregon.

    No Michigan.

    No Washington.

    That is a huge deal in this version of the Big Ten.

    It does not make the schedule easy. Notre Dame is a monster opener. Penn State is a tough road game. Iowa on the road is never fun. USC is dangerous. Maryland and Purdue are road games in November.

    But if Wisconsin was ever going to catch a break from the Big Ten schedule, this is it.

    Four of the first five games are in the state of Wisconsin, counting the Notre Dame game in Green Bay. That gives the Badgers a chance to build confidence early.

    The key is not wasting it.

    If Wisconsin loses to Notre Dame, that is not the end of the world.

    But Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan must be wins. Michigan State at home feels important. UCLA, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue and Minnesota are the kinds of games Wisconsin has to view as winnable if it wants to get back to a bowl.

    The schedule gives the Badgers a chance to overachieve.

    Now they have to be good enough to take advantage.

    OUTLOOK

    Wisconsin is one of the weirdest teams in the Big Ten to project.

    On one hand, last year was ugly.

    The offense was one of the worst in the country. The quarterback play was not good enough. The run game was not Wisconsin-level. The defense did not take the ball away. The roster had to be rebuilt with transfers.

    That is a lot.

    On the other hand, the schedule is manageable, the defense should still have some real pieces, and Colton Joseph gives the offense a chance to look completely different.

    That is the optimistic case.

    Joseph brings a dual-threat skill set. Abu Sama III gives the backfield a proven runner. The transfer receivers give the passing game new options. The offensive line has been reworked. The defense still has enough talent to be solid.

    If all of that comes together, Wisconsin can get back to a bowl.

    Maybe even more.

    The worst-case scenario is obvious too.

    Joseph’s production does not translate cleanly. The offensive line remains a problem. The run game still cannot get going. The defense takes a step back after losing so many starters. And the Badgers waste the schedule break.

    That would put even more pressure on Fickell.

    Wisconsin will be better.

    It almost has to be.

    The offense cannot be that bad again. The schedule is too favorable to ignore. And there are enough transfer pieces to believe this team can at least find a functional identity.

    A bowl game should be the goal.

    With this schedule, it is absolutely possible.

    And if Wisconsin gets there, Fickell buys himself some breathing room.

    If not, the questions in Madison are going to get a lot louder.

    Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

  • Washington season outlook: Can Demond Williams Jr. push the Huskies into the Big Ten race?

    Washington season outlook: Can Demond Williams Jr. push the Huskies into the Big Ten race?

    There are normal quarterback storylines.

    Then there is what Washington has dealt with this offseason.

    Demond Williams Jr. was expected back. Then he entered the transfer portal. There was interest from major programs. Washington was reportedly not thrilled with how it all played out because of the NIL piece attached to his return. Then, after all of that, Williams ended up staying with the Huskies.

    That is not a normal offseason.

    It is also not something Washington can ignore.

    The good news is simple: Williams is still a Husky.

    And if Washington is going to make noise in the Big Ten, that is where the conversation starts.

    The Huskies went 9-4 last season and 5-4 in the Big Ten. Jedd Fisch is entering year three, and Washington already feels like a program that can be dangerous in this new version of the league.

    The question is whether the Huskies can become more than dangerous.

    Can they become a real Big Ten title threat?

    They have the quarterback.

    They have offensive line continuity.

    They had a top-15 scoring defense last season.

    Now they have to prove they can beat the best teams on the schedule.

    HEAD COACH

    • Jedd Fisch, entering year three at Washington
    • Washington went 9-4 last season.
    • The Huskies finished 5-4 in the Big Ten.
    • Fisch is 15-11 at Washington.
    • Washington averaged 31.1 points per game last season.

    Fisch has done a solid job.

    That may sound like underselling it, but it is true. Washington had to deal with a difficult transition after the national title game run and the coaching change, then had to adjust to life in the Big Ten.

    The Huskies have not fallen apart.

    They have stayed competitive.

    Now the next step is the hard one.

    Washington averaged 31.1 points per game last season and 392 yards per game. The points were better than the yardage would suggest, which usually means the offense was efficient enough in key moments and got enough from its quarterback to finish drives.

    The defense was the bigger surprise.

    Washington allowed only 19.4 points per game and 319 yards per game. That put the Huskies near the top of the country in scoring defense, and it kept them in position to win most weeks.

    That is a good formula.

    The problem is the top of the league.

    Washington was good enough to beat a lot of teams. It was not good enough against the best teams on the schedule. That is where this season has to change.

    The Huskies do not need to become Ohio State or Oregon overnight.

    But they do need to prove they belong in that next group.

    And with Williams back, they have a chance.

    QUARTERBACK

    This is all about Demond Williams Jr.

    He is one of the most established quarterbacks in the Big Ten.

    Last season, Williams threw for 3,065 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He also brings a rushing element that makes Washington’s offense harder to defend.

    The raw numbers are good.

    The advanced numbers are even more interesting.

    Williams completed about 75% of his passes from a clean pocket. When protected, he could pick teams apart. That is exactly what you want from a quarterback in this offense.

    Even under pressure, he held up well. Williams completed about 56% of his throws under pressure with six touchdowns and only one interception.

    That matters.

    A lot of quarterbacks fall apart when the pocket gets messy. Williams did not. He stayed composed enough to make plays and did not turn pressure into disaster.

    The deep-ball numbers also give Washington a real ceiling. Williams completed about 40% of his deep throws with nine touchdowns and four interceptions.

    So what is the concern?

    The biggest games.

    Against Ohio State, Michigan and Oregon last season, Williams threw two touchdowns and five interceptions.

    That does not mean he is not good.

    Nobody was exactly lighting up those teams.

    But if Washington wants to move from good to dangerous, Williams has to be better in those games. He cannot just beat the middle of the league. He has to give Washington a chance against the teams that can win the Big Ten.

    The offseason drama is going to get talked about.

    That is unavoidable.

    But once the season starts, nobody will care if Washington is winning.

    That is the reality.

    If Williams plays well, it becomes a footnote.

    If he struggles, it becomes part of the story again.

    THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

    Washington has enough around Williams to be interesting.

    The receiver room starts with Dezmen Roebuck, who was a freshman All-American type of player last season. He had 42 catches for 560 yards and seven touchdowns, and he gives Williams a proven target who can continue to grow.

    That is a big deal.

    The Huskies also get Rashid Williams back after he battled injuries last season. If he is healthy, that gives Washington another receiver who can help stretch the field and take pressure off Roebuck.

    At tight end, Decker DeGraaf is back after finishing with 327 receiving yards. That is a useful piece in this offense, especially for a quarterback who can extend plays and work the middle of the field.

    The running back room has options, but it also has questions.

    Quaid Carr is in the mix. Trey Cooley is in the mix. Washington has bodies there, but the Huskies need someone to take control of the job. Williams can run, but Washington does not want him to become the entire run game.

    The offensive line may be the biggest reason for optimism.

    Drew Azzopardi, Geirean Hatchett, Landen Hatchett and John Mills are all part of the projected group. That is a lot of continuity up front, and it matters because this team is at its best when Williams is protected.

    If Washington keeps Williams clean, the offense can be efficient.

    If the run game becomes more stable, the offense can become dangerous.

    That is the next step.

    The passing game is good enough.

    Now the Huskies need the run game to make defenses respect both sides of the offense.

    DEFENSE

    The defensive numbers were strong last season.

    Washington allowed 19.4 points per game and 319 yards per game. Opponents also ran the ball on only about 46% of their plays, one of the lower rates in the country.

    That tells you teams did not just line up and push Washington around.

    The question is whether the Huskies can repeat that level of defense with only a few returning starters.

    The key returning names start up front with Elinneus Davis and on the edge with Jacob Lane. In the secondary, Alex McLaughlin is back as one of the key pieces.

    Washington also brings in important transfers.

    Darin Conley comes in from Ball State, and DeSean Watts comes in from Sacramento State. Those defensive line additions should help a group that needs more depth and more production.

    At linebacker, Xe’ree Alexander and Jacob Manu are both back. That matters because even if the returning starter count looks low, there are still players on this defense who have played meaningful football at Washington.

    The secondary also has some interesting pieces.

    Emmanuel Karnley began his career with Fisch at Arizona and now comes over to Washington. Dylan Robinson started five games as a freshman. Rylon Dillard-Allen and McLaughlin give the Huskies more experience in the back end.

    So the defense is not empty.

    But it does have to prove it can stay near last year’s level.

    That is not easy.

    A top-15 scoring defense is hard to repeat. Washington does not need to be exactly that good again, but it cannot take a huge step back.

    If the defense stays solid, Williams gives the Huskies a chance in almost every game.

    If the defense slips, the schedule gets a lot tougher.

    SCHEDULE

    The schedule gives Washington a chance to start fast.

    The Huskies open with Washington State, then host Utah State and Eastern Washington before opening Big Ten play at home against Minnesota.

    That means the first four games are all very winnable.

    Washington should expect to start strong.

    Then the schedule gets real.

    The Huskies go to USC on Oct. 3, then host Iowa on Oct. 10. That is a fascinating two-week stretch because those teams test you in completely different ways.

    USC can score.

    Iowa wants to drag you into a rock fight.

    After Iowa, Washington goes to Purdue, then gets a bye before going to Nebraska on Halloween.

    That road stretch matters.

    Four of Washington’s final six games are away from home, and that is where the season gets tricky.

    After Nebraska, Washington hosts Penn State, then goes to Michigan State. Then comes the brutal finish: Indiana at home on Nov. 21 and Oregon on the road on Nov. 28.

    That is a tough way to end the year.

    Indiana is the defending national champion. Oregon is one of the best teams in the country. And going to Autzen Stadium in the regular-season finale is not exactly a soft landing.

    The interesting schedule note is that five of Washington’s first six games are at home, with the only road game being USC.

    That gives the Huskies a chance to build a record.

    But the back half will decide what kind of team this actually is.

    If Washington is in good shape going into November, the Huskies could be one of the more dangerous teams in the Big Ten race.

    If they stumble early, that closing stretch could become a problem.

    OUTLOOK

    Washington is one of the teams in the Big Ten that could swing a lot of different ways.

    The optimistic case is strong.

    Demond Williams Jr. is back. He is experienced, productive and efficient under pressure. Dezmen Roebuck gives him a young playmaker. Rashid Williams can help if healthy. Decker DeGraaf gives the offense a tight end piece. The offensive line has continuity. The defense was excellent last season and still has enough returning talent to be good.

    That is a real case.

    The concern is also real.

    The offseason quarterback drama could become a distraction if things start poorly. The run game has to find a lead back. The defense has to replace important pieces. And the schedule ends with Indiana and Oregon, two games that could expose any weaknesses.

    The best-case scenario is that Williams plays like one of the top quarterbacks in the Big Ten, Roebuck becomes a clear No. 1 receiver, the offensive line keeps the offense efficient, the run game settles, and the defense stays close to last year’s level.

    If that happens, Washington can win nine or 10 games.

    The worst-case scenario is that the quarterback story lingers, the offense becomes too dependent on Williams, the defense slips from top-15 level, and the late schedule knocks the Huskies down.

    That is possible too.

    If Washington is sitting there in November with only a couple losses, the whole league better pay attention.

    Because with Williams at quarterback, the Huskies are good enough to ruin someone’s season.

    And maybe good enough to make one of their own.

    Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

  • USC season outlook: Is this Lincoln Riley’s now-or-never year?

    USC season outlook: Is this Lincoln Riley’s now-or-never year?

    This feels like the year USC has to become more than interesting.

    The Trojans have had moments under Lincoln Riley. They had the 11-3 season in 2022. They had Caleb Williams. They had the kind of offense that made USC feel dangerous again.

    But the last three years have not matched the expectation.

    USC has been stuck in that seven-to-nine-win range, which is not what people expected when Riley left Oklahoma for Los Angeles. The Trojans did not hire him to be pretty good. They hired him to put USC back in the national championship conversation.

    Now, entering year five, the roster looks built for that kind of jump.

    USC went 8-4 last season and 7-2 in the Big Ten. The Trojans averaged 35.8 points per game and 465 yards per game. They bring back more returning starters (15) than anyone in the country. They have a veteran quarterback. They have both top running backs back. They return the entire offensive line.

    If USC is going to become elite under Riley, this feels like the year.

    That does not mean it will be easy.

    The schedule gets nasty.

    But the roster is good enough to make this the most important season of Riley’s USC tenure.

    HEAD COACH

    • Lincoln Riley, entering year five at USC
    • USC went 8-4 last season.
    • The Trojans finished 7-2 in the Big Ten.
    • Riley is 35-18 at USC.
    • Riley is 90-28 as a college head coach.

    This is not a “hot seat” year in the obvious sense.

    Riley is too good of a coach for that.

    But the pressure is absolutely building.

    That is what happens when you are Lincoln Riley at USC. The expectations are different. The brand is different. The recruiting ceiling is different. The money is different. The spotlight is different.

    Winning eight or nine games is not enough forever.

    At some point, USC has to become a real Big Ten title contender.

    The offense was already good enough last season. The Trojans averaged 35.8 points per game, which ranked near the top of the country. They averaged 465 yards per game, one of the best marks nationally. They were almost perfectly balanced, basically 50/50 run and pass.

    That is what makes this team so interesting.

    This is not just a throw-it-every-down Riley offense anymore. USC can run it. USC can throw it. USC can stress defenses in multiple ways.

    The defense was better than some of Riley’s earlier USC teams too, allowing 23 points per game and 350 yards per game.

    But better is not the same as good enough.

    If USC wants to get into the top tier of the Big Ten, the defense still has to take another step.

    That is the whole season.

    The offense should be dangerous.

    The defense has to become dependable.

    QUARTERBACK

    The quarterback is Jayden Maiava.

    And this is where USC’s season really starts.

    Maiava is 12-5 as a starter at USC. Last season, he completed 65% of his passes with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

    Those are good numbers.

    But the details are where the conversation gets more complicated.

    Maiava threw an interception in eight of his final 10 games last season. Over that closing 10-game stretch, he had 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

    That has to be cleaner.

    The talent is obvious. The arm is obvious. The deep ball is obvious. Maiava had the most deep-ball completions in the country last season with 39 completions of 20-plus air yards, according to PFF. He also ranked among the best nationally in deep-ball completion percentage.

    That is a real weapon.

    Not many quarterbacks can stretch the field like that.

    But the pressure numbers matter too.

    Maiava had the ninth-most pass attempts under pressure in the country, with pressure on about 41.9% of his dropbacks. That is too many. USC has to protect him better, especially with the entire offensive line coming back.

    The good news is that the line should be better.

    The bad news is that Maiava still has to make better decisions even when things are not perfect.

    That is the next step.

    If Maiava cuts down the interceptions and keeps the explosive passing game, USC can have one of the best offenses in the country.

    If the late-season turnover trend continues, the Trojans will lose games they should not lose.

    THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

    There may not be a more experienced offense in college football.

    That is not an exaggeration.

    USC brings back almost everything.

    The running back room should be a strength with King Miller and Waymond Jordan both returning. Miller rushed for 972 yards and eight touchdowns last season. Jordan added 576 yards and five touchdowns.

    That gives USC two proven backs.

    That matters because the Trojans were balanced last year, and they should be balanced again. Riley’s offense will always be known for quarterback play and explosive passing, but this team has enough in the backfield to punish defenses that play too light.

    The receiver room is the bigger question.

    Makai Lemon is gone to the NFL, and that is a major loss. He was a first-round type of player and one of the most dangerous pieces in the offense.

    Now USC needs someone else to become the lead receiver.

    Tanook Hines is the obvious returning name after catching 34 passes last season. He has a real chance to become a much bigger part of the offense.

    The top newcomer to watch is Mark Bowman, a former five-star talent who could become one of the breakout players on the roster.

    USC does not lack talent at receiver.

    It just has to turn talent into production.

    The offensive line is the part that should make USC fans feel best.

    Alani Noa, Kilian O’Connor, Elijah Paige, Tobias Raymond and Justin Tauanuu are all part of a loaded returning group up front. In 2023, this unit had a ton of career starts. In 2024, USC had to rebuild it. Now the Trojans get continuity.

    That is huge.

    If the line takes a step, everything else works better.

    Maiava gets cleaner pockets. The run game gets better lanes. The deep passing game gets more time to develop. The defense gets more rest.

    This offense has everything it needs.

    Now it has to be elite when the schedule gets real.

    DEFENSE

    The defense is why this season is fascinating.

    USC was not terrible defensively last year.

    The Trojans allowed 23 points per game and 350 yards per game, which is respectable. That is a long way from the worst of the Riley era.

    But respectable is not enough to win the Big Ten.

    USC still gave up too much in the biggest games. Oregon scored 42. Notre Dame scored 34. Illinois gave the Trojans problems too.

    That is the difference between being good and being a playoff threat.

    The good news is that USC has experience back.

    Jide Abasiri returns up front. Kameryn Crawford and Braylan Shelby give the Trojans pass-rush pieces on the edge. Desman Stephens is back at linebacker. Christian Pierce and Marcelles Williams are back in the secondary.

    That is a solid defensive core.

    The question is whether USC has enough true difference-makers.

    The Trojans have players. They have experience. They have depth. But they need someone on that defense to become a star. They need a pass rusher who changes games. They need a linebacker who cleans things up. They need defensive backs who can hold up against the best receivers in the league.

    The defensive staff also matters.

    With Gary Patterson involved, USC should be better organized. Patterson has been one of the best defensive minds in college football for a long time. If he can help bring more structure and consistency, this defense can improve quickly.

    That is what USC needs.

    Not just more talent.

    More consistency.

    More stops.

    More toughness in the biggest games.

    If the defense jumps from decent to good, USC becomes dangerous.

    If it stays around the same level, the Trojans are probably still stuck in the eight-to-nine-win conversation.

    SCHEDULE

    The schedule gives USC a chance to start fast.

    The Trojans open with three straight home games against San Jose State, Fresno State and Louisiana. Then they go all the way across the country to play Rutgers on Sept. 19.

    USC should start 4-0.

    That does not mean Rutgers is automatic. Cross-country travel is real, and Rutgers has several big-name home games this season. But USC has the better roster and should win that game.

    Then everything changes.

    Oregon comes to Los Angeles on Sept. 26.

    One week later, Washington comes to USC on Oct. 3.

    Those are measuring-stick games.

    If USC is really going to be a top-tier Big Ten team, it has to win at least one of those and probably needs to defend home field in both.

    Then the Trojans go to Penn State on Oct. 10.

    That means USC plays seven straight games before its first bye.

    That is a grind.

    After the bye, USC goes to Wisconsin on Oct. 24, then hosts Ohio State on Halloween.

    Then comes another bye before a trip to Indiana on Nov. 14.

    That three-game stretch — at Wisconsin, Ohio State, at Indiana — is brutal.

    It will define the season.

    After that, USC hosts Maryland on Nov. 21 and finishes at UCLA on Nov. 28.

    There are some weird Big Ten schedule notes here too.

    USC has not been to Indiana since 1981. The Trojans have never hosted Maryland. The Rutgers trip is one of the longest road trips in the country.

    That is life in the new Big Ten.

    The key is getting through the first seven games in good shape.

    If USC is 6-1 going into the first bye, everything is on the table.

    If the Trojans stumble early, the back half could get uncomfortable fast.

    OUTLOOK

    This is the year.

    That does not mean USC has to win the national championship.

    But this is the year USC has to look like the program it is supposed to be under Lincoln Riley.

    The pieces are there.

    Jayden Maiava is experienced. King Miller and Waymond Jordan are back. The offensive line returns basically intact. The roster has more returning starters than anyone in the country. The defense has enough experience to improve. The schedule gives USC a manageable start before the brutal middle stretch.

    The best-case scenario is that Maiava cuts down the interceptions, the offensive line becomes one of the best in the Big Ten, Miller and Jordan keep the offense balanced, Tanook Hines and Mark Bowman help replace Makai Lemon, and the defense makes a real jump under Patterson.

    If that happens, USC can compete for the Big Ten title.

    The worst-case scenario is that Maiava keeps turning it over, the receiver room does not replace Lemon quickly enough, and the defense is still not good enough against the best teams on the schedule.

    If that happens, USC could be another eight- or nine-win team.

    That would not be enough.

    Not this year.

    Not with this roster.

    The talent is there.

    The experience is there.

    The pressure is there.

    Now USC has to turn all of that into something bigger than another good-but-not-great season.

    Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.