Greg Schiano is the reason Rutgers has had real football moments.

He is the coach who proved it was possible to win there. He is the coach most people still associate with the best stretch of Rutgers football. He is also the coach now trying to figure out how to make it happen again in a much different version of the Big Ten.

That is the hard part.

Rutgers went 5-7 last season and 2-7 in the Big Ten. The Scarlet Knights have not had a nine-win season since 2011, and Schiano is now entering year seven of his second stint.

The question is not whether Schiano knows how to win at Rutgers.

The question is whether the league has gotten too difficult for Rutgers to take the kind of step fans want.

The expanded Big Ten is brutal. There are more national brands. More travel challenges. More playoff-level teams. And Rutgers is still trying to move from the bottom tier into the middle of the league.

The good news is that the offense has real pieces.

The bad news is that the defense was a mess last season.

That is where the season starts.

HEAD COACH

• Greg Schiano, entering year seven of his second stint at Rutgers
• Rutgers went 5-7 last season.
• The Scarlet Knights finished 2-7 in the Big Ten.
• Schiano is 99-108 at Rutgers.

Schiano’s second stint has not matched the first one.

There have been moments. Rutgers had back-to-back 7-6 seasons before slipping to 5-7 last year. That matters because, at Rutgers, bowl seasons are not automatic. You take them when you get them.

But the Scarlet Knights are still trying to become more than just a team that occasionally gets to six wins.

Last season started with some promise. Rutgers opened 3-0, then things got away from them. After that start, the only wins came by three points at Purdue and against a Maryland team that completely collapsed.

That is not enough.

Rutgers averaged 25.8 points per game and 393.5 yards per game last season. Those numbers are fine. Not great, but fine.

The run game was the bigger issue.

Rutgers ran the ball on 52% of its plays, but averaged only 3.6 yards per carry. That has to be better, especially with the running back they have.

The defense was the real problem.

Rutgers allowed 33.8 points per game and 452.5 yards per game. That is not Big Ten competitive. The Scarlet Knights also finished with only 11 sacks, one of the lowest totals in the country.

If that does not change, nothing else matters.

QUARTERBACK

The quarterback battle looks like Dylan Lonergan against AJ Surace.

Lonergan is the bigger name and probably the favorite.

He comes in from Boston College after starting his career at Alabama, and he brings real Power Four experience. Last season, he completed 66.9% of his passes for 2,025 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions.

Those numbers are solid.

But the season was not perfectly smooth. Lonergan was in and out of the lineup at times at Boston College, so Rutgers is not getting a guaranteed star. It is getting a talented quarterback who has already been through a lot and now gets another chance.

That can work.

Sometimes a change of scenery is exactly what a quarterback needs.

Surace is the other option. He threw only nine passes last season, completing four for 58 yards and two touchdowns. All of his completions came against Norfolk State, so there is not much of a sample here.

That makes this decision interesting.

Lonergan has the experience.

Surace has the program familiarity.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

This is where Rutgers has its best argument for being better than people think.

Start with KJ Duff.

Duff had 60 catches for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns last season. He is 6-foot-6, wins contested catches, and led the nation with 22 contested catches, according to Athlon Sports.

That is a weapon.

A real one.

If you are breaking in a new quarterback, a receiver like Duff makes everything easier. He does not have to be wide open. He can win in traffic. He can be the answer on third down. He can bail you out when the throw is not perfect.

That matters a lot.

Then there is Antwan Raymond.

Raymond rushed for more than 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. He is one of only a handful of running backs in Rutgers history to produce a 1,200-yard season.

That should be the identity.

Rutgers has to run the ball better. It has the running back to do it. The issue is that the overall rushing efficiency was not good enough last season.

A great back should not be stuck in a run game averaging 3.6 yards per carry.

The offensive line has some pieces back with Kwabena Asamoah and Tyler Needham. That is important because this offense cannot just ask Raymond to create everything by himself. He needs cleaner lanes. The quarterback needs better protection. The whole unit has to be more physical.

The passing game also needs more than Duff.

He is good enough to be the clear No. 1, but if defenses can roll coverage his way every week, somebody else has to punish them.

That is where the development of the rest of the receiver room matters.

But the foundation is not bad.

A proven running back. A 1,000-yard receiver. Two experienced offensive linemen. A quarterback transfer with real starting experience.

That is enough to work with.

Now Rutgers has to turn it into points.

DEFENSE

This is the side that decides the season.

Rutgers was not just bad defensively last year.

It was bad in the ways that are hardest to survive in the Big Ten.

The Scarlet Knights allowed 33.8 points per game. They gave up 452.5 yards per game. Opponents averaged nearly nine yards per pass attempt, one of the worst marks in the country.

And the pass rush was almost nonexistent.

Only 11 sacks all season.

That is the number that jumps off the page.

You cannot play Big Ten football that way. Not anymore. Not with the quarterbacks and receivers in this league. If you cannot affect the passer, good teams are going to carve you up.

That is why the transfer additions matter.

Rutgers brought in help all over the defense.

Malachi Davis comes in from Toledo. J’Dan Burnett Sr. comes in from Tulsa. Ty Morris comes in from Rice. Zahmir Dawud comes in from Villanova. Kevyn Humes Jr. comes in from Boston College.

Those are the kinds of additions Rutgers needed.

Up front, Zaire Angoy and Keshon Griffin are important pieces. At linebacker, Abram Wright Jr. is back after finishing with 58 tackles. In the secondary, Kaj Sanders Jr. is the leading returning tackler after making 65 tackles last season.

There are names here.

Now there has to be production.

The defense does not need to become elite overnight. That is not realistic. But Rutgers cannot be near the bottom of the country in pass defense again. It cannot finish with only 11 sacks again. It cannot keep giving up 34 points and expect to win Big Ten games.

This team’s bowl hopes depend on the defense becoming functional.

If the defense is average, Rutgers can be competitive.

If it is bad again, the offense probably cannot save it.

SCHEDULE

Rutgers opens at home against UMass, then goes to Boston College on Sept. 11. That Boston College game has an obvious storyline if Lonergan is the quarterback against his former team.

After that, things get real quickly.

The Scarlet Knights host USC on Sept. 19, then Howard on Sept. 25, then Indiana on Oct. 3.

That means four of the first five games are at home.

That is good.

But two of those home games are USC and Indiana.

That is not good.

USC brings back a ton. Indiana is the defending national champion. Rutgers gets both in New Jersey, which matters, but those are still enormous tests.

After a bye, Rutgers goes on the road for back-to-back games at Maryland and Northwestern. Those games may define the season. If Rutgers wants to get to a bowl, it probably has to win at least one of those and maybe both.

Then Michigan comes to Rutgers on Halloween.

After that, the Scarlet Knights go to Wisconsin, host Nebraska, go to Penn State, and finish at home against Michigan State.

There are opportunities.

UMass and Howard have to be wins. Boston College is a big swing game. Maryland and Northwestern are road games, but they are not impossible. Michigan State at home could matter late.

The problem is the ceiling games.

USC, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Penn State all present real challenges. Rutgers gets several of the biggest names at home, which helps. But the schedule still does not give the Scarlet Knights many free spots.

If Rutgers is going to make a bowl, it has to win the toss-up games.

There is no other path.

OUTLOOK

I understand the case for Rutgers being better than people expect.

The offense has real pieces. KJ Duff is one of the best receivers in the Big Ten. Antwan Raymond is a proven 1,200-yard back. Dylan Lonergan gives the quarterback room a legitimate transfer option, if he starts .The offensive line has some experience.

That is the optimistic case.

The concern is the defense.

It was too bad last year to ignore. Rutgers could not rush the passer. It could not stop teams from throwing it efficiently. It gave up too many points. It let games get away.

The best-case scenario is that Lonergan wins the quarterback job and gives Rutgers stable passing-game play, Duff becomes one of the league’s best receivers again, Raymond carries the run game, and the defensive transfers immediately raise the floor.

If that happens, Rutgers can get back to a bowl.

The worst-case scenario is that the quarterback battle lingers, the run game remains inefficient despite Raymond’s talent, and the defense still cannot create pressure.

If that happens, Rutgers could be stuck near the bottom again.

The goal should be simple.

Beat the teams you are supposed to beat.

Steal one home game against a bigger name.

Win a road toss-up.

Get back to a bowl.

That would be a good season.

Anything more than that probably depends on whether the defense can make a jump nobody saw coming.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.