Blog

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
TV: ESPN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): TEX -30.5
Over/under: 59.5

The setup

Texas is expected to win comfortably as a 30.5-point favorite. Can the Longhorns slow down a high powered Texas State offense and not get caught looking ahead to Ohio State?

Personnel snapshot

• Texas St: G. J. Kinne enters Year 4 as head coach. 11 starters return—7 on offense and 4 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Sully Burns and Justin DeLeon. Texas St’s offense averaged 472.8 yards and 38.9 points per game last season.
• Texas St quarterback: Brad Jackson returns as Texas St’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 3,050 yards, 18 TD and 7 INT.
• Texas: Steve Sarkisian enters Year 6 as head coach. 13 starters return—7 on offense and 6 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Brandon Baker, Trevor Goosby, and Connor Robertson. Texas’ offense averaged 388.5 yards and 30.5 points per game last season.
• Texas quarterback: Arch Manning returns as Texas’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,942 yards, 24 TD and 7 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• Run game strength meets strength: Texas St averaged 5.93 yards per rush play, No. 18 nationally. Texas’s defense allowed 4.24 yards per rush play, No. 13 nationally. Winning this matchup would force the other side away from what it did best last year. The same head coach and OC return with 7 starters from that offensive unit, making the strength more likely to carry into 2026.
• The protection wall facing Texas: Texas allowed a disruptive play on 13.3% of its snaps, No. 87 nationally. Texas St’s defense created a disruptive play on 14.2% of snaps, No. 30 nationally. Even an average result here would be a win for Texas; losing it badly would make the offense predictable. Texas kept the same head coach and OC, with 7 offensive starters returning.
• Pressure changed everything for Brad Jackson: Brad Jackson completed 55.9% of his passes under pressure last season at 9.5 yards per attempt, with 2 TD and 4 INT (6.8% of throws). From a clean pocket: 73.5%, 8.9 yards per attempt, 19 TD and 3 INT (1.0%). Texas’s pass rush ranked No. 20 in PFF’s 2025 FBS team grades. In plain terms: make him speed up, and the game changes.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Nippert Stadium
TV: FOX
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): CIN -7.5
Over/under: 51.5

The setup

Cincinnati has won 24 straight home openers, the country’s second-longest active streak behind Oklahoma State’s 30. Boston College is trying to interrupt something Nippert has repeated since 2002.

Personnel snapshot

• Boston College: Bill O’Brien enters Year 3 as head coach. 5 starters return—1 on offense and 4 on defense. Key defenders back include Chris Marable Jr., Carter Davis, and Isaiah Farris. Boston College’s defense allowed 433.3 yards and 32.8 points per game last season.
• Boston College quarterback: Mason McKenzie is projected to start for Boston College. He had no meaningful passing sample in 2025.
• Cincinnati: Scott Satterfield enters Year 4 as head coach. 5 starters return—3 on offense and 2 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Joe Cotton, Taran Tyo, and Evan Tengesdahl. Cincinnati’s offense averaged 407.3 yards and 30.3 points per game last season.
• Cincinnati quarterback: JC French IV is projected to start for Cincinnati. Last season at GA Southern, he threw for 2,753 yards, 19 TD and 8 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The history: The series is tied 4-4, but this is the first regular-season meeting since 1997. Cincinnati won the 2020 bowl meeting 38-6, so the history book says even while the freshest memory does not.
• The pressure point: Cincinnati’s line allowed only eight sacks and 43 tackles for loss, both the fewest among Power Four teams. Boston College ranked 120th in pass rush, making the Bearcats’ cleanest strength hard for BC to challenge.
• The quarterback angle: New Cincinnati quarterback JC French brings 26 starts and 45 total touchdowns after becoming Georgia Southern’s career passing leader. He is new to the uniform, not to managing an offense.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV: ABC
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): AUB -7
Over/under: 59.5

The setup

Auburn won last year’s opener 38-24 by outrushing Baylor 307-64. Both programs changed major pieces, but the rematch begins with a 243-yard neon sign pointing toward the line of scrimmage.

Personnel snapshot

• Baylor: Dave Aranda enters Year 7 as head coach. 5 starters return—1 on offense and 4 on defense. Key defenders back include Devonte Tezino, Kyland Reed, and LeVar Thornton Jr.. Baylor’s defense allowed 392.1 yards and 41.4 points per game last season.
• Baylor quarterback: DJ Lagway is projected to start for Baylor. Last season at Florida, he threw for 2,264 yards, 16 TD and 14 INT.
• Auburn: Alex Golesh enters Year 1 as head coach. 3 starters return—1 on offense and 2 on defense. Key defenders back include Xavier Atkins and Kaleb Harris. Auburn’s defense allowed 329.2 yards and 23.3 points per game last season.
• Auburn quarterback: Byrum Brown will start for Auburn. Last season at South Florida, he threw for 3,158 yards, 28 TD and 7 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The turnover test: Auburn added 57 newcomers and Baylor added 54. That is 111 new players around one rematch – almost enough turnover to make last year’s film look like it belongs to different teams.
• The roster reset: Auburn imported an SEC-high 176 career starts through the portal. Baylor counters with 39 portal additions, so the neutral-site opener is less about avoiding transfers and more about which collection becomes a team first.
• The quarterback angle: Auburn’s Byrum Brown already beat Baylor’s DJ Lagway 18-16 when South Florida visited Florida last year. New uniforms, new schools, same quarterbacks – the transfer portal created a sequel inside the rematch.

How the game is decided

This comes down to the quarterbacks and offensive lines. The team that avoids sacks and giveaways can keep its whole playbook available; the first offense that becomes one-dimensional gives the other side control of the game.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Autzen Stadium
TV: CBS
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): ORE -24.5
Over/under: 51.5

The setup

Boise State still leads Oregon 3-1, even after the Ducks finally broke through 37-34 in 2024. The No. 2 team is the favorite; the visitor still owns the series.

Personnel snapshot

• Boise St: Spencer Danielson enters Year 4 as head coach. 13 starters return—7 on offense and 6 on defense. Key offensive linemen back include Roger Carreon, Daylon Metoyer, and Jason Steele. Boise St’s offense averaged 424.0 yards and 29.9 points per game last season.
• Boise St quarterback: Maddux Madsen returns as Boise St’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,283 yards, 18 TD and 7 INT.
• Oregon: Dan Lanning enters Year 5 as head coach. 14 starters return—6 on offense and 8 on defense. Key defenders back include Bear Alexander, Jerry Mixon, and Aaron Flowers. Oregon’s defense allowed 273.7 yards and 17.9 points per game last season.
• Oregon quarterback: Dante Moore returns as Oregon’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 2,733 yards, 24 TD and 6 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The recent trend: Oregon is 48-8 under Dan Lanning, tied for the nation’s second-best winning percentage since 2022, and 26-2 at home. The Ducks have made dominance and Autzen almost interchangeable.
• The history: Oregon has won 15 straight home season openers and 21 straight home openers overall. Boise’s series edge is walking into two larger streaks at once.
• The turnover test: Maddux Madsen is 20-6 as Boise’s starter and 14-1 in conference games, with 50 career touchdown passes against 16 interceptions in 818 attempts. Oregon is facing a quarterback whose mistake rate is only 2.0% across a very large sample.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 4:00 PM CT
Location: M. M. Roberts Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): USM -21
Over/under: 50.5

The setup

Southern Miss is 11-0 against current SWAC teams and 4-0 against Alcorn State. The series is perfect, but one of those four wins was only 26-20 – history includes at least one fourth quarter.

What I’m watching

Alcorn St beat Miles College 56-7 in Week 0, with Jaylon Tolbert completing 25 of 28 for 265 yards, 5 TD and 0 INT. Alcorn St put 316 passing yards on film. Southern Miss allowed 229.2 passing yards per game last season, so the same approach gets a different test here.

Personnel snapshot

• The FBS roster is rebuilding too: Alcorn St’s Cedric Thomas is in Year 3; Southern Miss’s Blake Anderson is in Year 2. Southern Miss returns 1 starter—1 on offense and 0 on defense.
• Where points should be available: Alcorn St averaged 39.3 points per game last season; Southern Miss allowed 35.8. That gives the underdog a believable path: score early enough to make the favorite play with pressure.
• One familiar option, one unknown: Jaylon Tolbert led Alcorn St’s passing in Week 0 (25 of 28 for 265 yards, 5 TD and 0 INT); Ethan Hampton is the projected starter for Southern Miss (no meaningful 2025 passing sample). Jaylon Tolbert was already on Alcorn St’s roster last season; Ethan Hampton is new to Southern Miss and brings very little recent game experience.
• Availability: Southern Miss says defensive end Zachariah Keith is healthy and set to play his first game since 2022 after recovering from a neck injury and a spring 2026 partial pectoral tear.

Three quick analysis points

• The opener trend: Since the FCS split in 1978, Southern Miss is 9-0 when opening against an FCS opponent. Alcorn is trying to become the first Week 1 exception in 48 years.
• The recent trend: Alcorn already won 56-7 in Week 0. Southern Miss has live film on the underdog, but the underdog also arrives with the confidence of a 49-point runway.
• New quarterback, immediate test: Ethan Hampton transferred from Illinois and is expected to make his first start for Southern Miss. Last year he threw for 27 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT; 25.0% of his throws were picked off. Alcorn St finished last season with 17 sacks. Southern Miss returns no listed starting offensive linemen, making protection the immediate question.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 3:15 PM CT
Location: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
TV: SEC Network
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): ARK -40.5
Over/under: 63.5

The setup

North Alabama’s only previous SEC game was in 1959. Sixty-seven years later, its first SEC matchup as an FCS program is also the first meeting with Arkansas.

What I’m watching

North Alabama beat Samford 22-10 in Week 0, with Destin Wade completing 13 of 19 for 229 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. The Week 1 opponent changes the degree of difficulty, but 394 yards—229 passing and 165 rushing—gives us a real 2026 starting point instead of another projection.

Personnel snapshot

• A new staff with some carryover: North Alabama’s Brent Dearmon is in Year 4; Arkansas’s Ryan Silverfield is in Year 1. Arkansas returns 6 starters—4 on offense and 2 on defense.
• Where points should be available: Arkansas averaged 32.9 points per game last season; North Alabama allowed 40.5. If those identities survive the roster changes, this is where the favorite should create separation.
• The quarterback matchup: Destin Wade led North Alabama’s passing in Week 0 (13 of 19 for 229 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT); Arkansas’s competition remains open, with KJ Jackson the lead candidate (441 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in 2025). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• The opener trend: Arkansas is 104-24-4 in season openers, and new coach Ryan Silverfield is 5-1. One of Silverfield’s wins was a 40-0 result over this same North Alabama program at Memphis in 2024.
• The running-game test: North Alabama held Samford to minus-8 team rushing yards in Week 0. Arkansas averaged 7.15 yards per rush last year, best in the FBS – the opener’s most eye-popping stat meets the favorite’s biggest strength.
• The quarterback angle: KJ Jackson will be Arkansas’s first left-handed opening-day quarterback since Barry Lunney Jr. in 1995. He completed 61.1% with three touchdowns and no picks in his small 2025 sample.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Alamodome
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): UTSA -28.5
Over/under: 59.5

The setup

UTRGV did not merely win Week 0; it won 44-0, gained 675 yards and allowed 165. The 28.5-point underdog arrives with a 510-yard advantage already on 2026 tape.

What I’m watching

UT Rio Grande beat UT Permian Basin 44-0 in Week 0, with Garret Rangel and Aidan Jakobsohn combining to complete 22 of 31 for 391 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. UT Rio Grande already established the run, finishing with 277 rushing yards. UTSA allowed 149.6 rushing yards per game in 2025, which makes this a more meaningful follow-up test.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: UT Rio Grande’s Travis Bush is in Year 2; UTSA’s Jeff Traylor is in Year 7. UTSA returns 8 starters—6 on offense and 2 on defense.
• Where points should be available: UT Rio Grande averaged 39.4 points per game last season; UTSA allowed 31.3. That gives the underdog a believable path: score early enough to make the favorite play with pressure.
• The quarterback matchup: UT Rio Grande used Garret Rangel and Aidan Jakobsohn at quarterback in Week 0 (22 of 31 for 391 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT); Owen McCown returns as UTSA’s starter (2,700 yards, 27 TD and 7 INT in 2025). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• UT Rio Grande already cleared 500 yards: UT Rio Grande gained 681 yards in Week 0—404 passing and 277 rushing. That is a much more useful early clue than a preseason projection.
• The running-game test: UTRGV’s first game was balanced chaos: 404 passing yards and 271 rushing, with two 100-yard receivers. UTSA cannot solve the Vaqueros by taking away one player or one phase.
• The turnover test: Garret Rangel and Aidan Jakobsohn combined to complete 22 of 31 passes for 391 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Can they avoid the big mistakes against a FBS team that some believe could challenge for the Group of 6 College Football Playoff spot?

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Jerry Richardson Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): CLT -17.5
Over/under: 46.5

The setup

Charlotte is favored by 17.5. The Citadel already has a full 2026 game on film, creating an advantage in live reps but also giving the opponent real tape to study. Charlotte’s most recent win over a current power-conference program came in 2021 when it beat Duke.

What I’m watching

The Citadel lost 42-14 to Wofford in Week 0, with Quentin Hayes completing 12 of 20 for 88 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. The urgent issue is ball security after The Citadel gave it away 3 times. That has to improve before any comparison with Charlotte matters.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: The Citadel’s Maurice Drayton is in Year 4; Charlotte’s Tim Albin is in Year 2. Charlotte returns 7 starters—3 on offense and 4 on defense.
• The favorite’s run-game test: Charlotte averaged only 81.8 rushing yards per game last season. Against The Citadel, winning is expected; showing a more dependable run game would be the more useful result. The offense brings back 3 starters.
• The quarterback matchup: Quentin Hayes led The Citadel’s passing in Week 0 (12 of 20 for 88 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT); Conner Harrell is the projected starter for Charlotte (737 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT in 2025). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• A low-risk test for Charlotte’s run game: Charlotte averaged 3.36 yards per rush play, No. 136 nationally. The Citadel allowed 26.7 points per game at the FCS level last season. This is the right opener for Charlotte to show that weakness has been repaired; if it still cannot create easy offense, the concern carries into FBS play. Charlotte kept the same head coach and OC, with 3 offensive starters returning.
• The underdog’s opening against Charlotte: Charlotte’s defense created a disruptive play on 10.0% of snaps, No. 121 nationally. The Citadel scored 20.5 points per game at the FCS level last season. This is the one area The Citadel should test immediately. One successful early drive could turn a depth mismatch into a pressure game for a quarter or two. Charlotte changed its defensive leadership and returns 4 starters on that side, so last year’s number is a warning or opportunity—not a guarantee.
• The quarterback follow-up: Quentin Hayes handled 20 pass attempts for The Citadel in Week 0. He completed 12 of 20 for 88 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. Charlotte returns 4 defensive starters and ranked only No. 121 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, giving Quentin Hayes a chance to settle in. Week 0 identified who handled the passing game; this matchup is the first chance to see which parts of that performance carry over.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
TV: CBSSN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): NAVY -30.5
Over/under: 53.5

The setup

Navy and Towson have met once: a 41-13 Navy win in 2008. Shun White ran for a school-record 348 yards on only 19 carries, and the Mids finished with 558 – the sequel has a ridiculous rushing benchmark.

What I’m watching

Towson lost 21-18 to Maine in Week 0, with Andrew Indorf completing 15 of 21 for 267 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. The Week 1 opponent changes the degree of difficulty, but 379 yards—267 passing and 112 rushing—gives us a real 2026 starting point instead of another projection.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: Towson’s Pete Shinnick is in Year 4; Navy’s Brian Newberry is in Year 4. Navy returns 11 starters—5 on offense and 6 on defense.
• How quickly does the favorite take over: Navy averaged 31.9 points per game last season. Against Towson, the personnel test is whether that advantage shows up immediately or the favorite lets a heavy underdog hang around. The offense returns 5 starters.
• The quarterback matchup: Andrew Indorf led Towson’s passing in Week 0 (15 of 21 for 267 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT); Navy lists Braxton Woodson first on the Week 1 depth chart (25 career games and three starts; 760 rushing yards and 10 TD plus 516 passing yards and three TD). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• The recent trend: Navy is 21-5 over the last two seasons, the eighth-best winning percentage in the FBS and best outside the power conferences. This is not merely a quirky option team anymore; it has been one of the country’s most reliable winners.
• The roster reset: The twist is experience: Navy ranks 134th of 138 FBS teams in career snaps played. The recent results are veteran-level, while the 2026 roster is almost freshman-orientation young.
• The quarterback follow-up: Andrew Indorf handled 21 pass attempts for Towson in Week 0. He completed 15 of 21 for 267 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. Navy returns 6 defensive starters and ranked only No. 123 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, giving Andrew Indorf a chance to settle in.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 2:30 PM CT
Location: Neyland Stadium
TV: SECN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): TENN -46.5
Over/under: 66.5

The setup

Tennessee and Furman have not played since 1942, an 84-year gap. The Vols won both old meetings, when the SEC itself was less than a decade old.

What I’m watching

Furman beat Anderson (SC) 20-3 in Week 0, with Jake Garcia completing 15 of 28 for 183 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. Furman already established the run, finishing with 268 rushing yards. Tennessee allowed 152.4 rushing yards per game in 2025, which makes this a more meaningful follow-up test.

Personnel snapshot

• A veteran FBS core: Furman’s Clay Hendrix is in Year 10; Tennessee’s Josh Heupel is in Year 6. Tennessee returns 13 starters—8 on offense and 5 on defense.
• Where points should be available: Tennessee averaged 39.8 points per game last season; Furman allowed 31.0. If those identities survive the roster changes, this is where the favorite should create separation.
• The pressure test: Jake Garcia led Furman’s passing in Week 0 (15 of 28 for 183 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT); Tennessee’s competition remains open, with George MacIntyre the lead candidate (no meaningful 2025 passing sample). The tougher first assignment belongs to Jake Garcia: Tennessee produced 37 sacks last season.

Three quick analysis points

• The opener trend: Josh Heupel is 8-0 in season openers with a 427-96 scoring margin. His five Tennessee openers are 260-58, and every one played at Neyland was won by at least 30.
• The location wrinkle: Neyland Stadium has sold out 28 straight games. Furman’s first trip into this series since World War II comes with more than 100,000 people and no empty-seat relief.
• The quarterback follow-up: Jake Garcia handled 28 pass attempts for Furman in Week 0. He completed 15 of 28 for 183 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. Tennessee returns 5 defensive starters and ranked No. 13 in FBS sacks per game (2.85), finishing with 37. Week 0 identified who handled the passing game; this matchup is the first chance to see which parts of that performance carry over against a SEC defense.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.