Kickoff: Friday, September 4 at 7:00 PM CT
Location: Spartan Stadium
TV: FS1
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): MSU -10
Over/under: 49.5

The setup

This is a rematch 101 years in the making. Michigan State won the only meeting 58-0 on Nov. 8, 1925 – so long ago that this series skipped the other 99 seasons in between.

What I’m watching

The biggest test is whether Michigan State can move the ball without living in third-and-long. That offense ranked No. 106 nationally at 5.4 yards each time it snapped the ball; Toledo's defense ranked No. 3 and allowed only 4.6. Only 2 starters from that offensive unit return, so the old ranking may not carry cleanly into 2026. Only 0 starters from that defensive unit return, so the old ranking may not carry cleanly into 2026. That is the matchup most likely to tilt field position.

Personnel snapshot

• Toledo: Mike Jacobs enters Year 1 as head coach. 1 starter returns—1 on offense and 0 on defense. A key offensive lineman back is Stephen Gales. That offense averaged 415.2 yards and 33.2 points per game last season.
• Toledo quarterback: John Alan Richter is projected to start for Toledo. Last season, he threw for 153 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT.
• Michigan State: Pat Fitzgerald enters Year 1 as head coach. 5 starters return—2 on offense and 3 on defense. Key defenders back include Ben Roberts, Isaac Smith, and Jordan Hall. That defense allowed 378.7 yards and 29.9 points per game last season.
• Michigan State quarterback: Alessio Milivojevic is projected to start for Michigan State. Last season, he threw for 1,267 yards, 10 TD and 3 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The location wrinkle: Friday openers have become Michigan State's cheat code: 13-0 in Friday season openers since 2011, including 11-0 in Spartan Stadium. The Spartans have also won 25 straight nonconference home openers dating to 1999.
• The recent trend: Both sidelines are making a debut. Pat Fitzgerald coaches his first Michigan State game, while Mike Jacobs opens at Toledo after going 15-1 in the Southern Conference and winning two straight league titles at Mercer.
• A first real test at quarterback: John Alan Richter is expected to start for Toledo. Last year he threw for 153 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT; 4.0% of his throws were picked off. Michigan State returns 3 defensive starters and ranked No. 103 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, so this was not an overwhelming pressure mismatch last year. Toledo returns only one starting offensive lineman, raising the degree of difficulty.

How the game is decided

Michigan State needs easy offense: a short field, a quarterback run or a quick pass that breaks a tackle. If Toledo makes every drive travel the full field, its advantage should grow with each obvious passing down.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.