Uthinkuknowsports

UTSA season outlook: Why nobody should be ignoring the Roadrunners

There may not be a more interesting team in the American that people are not talking enough about.

UTSA has a returning quarterback.

It has a proven offense.

It has three offensive linemen back.

It has multiple receivers back.

It has a head coach who basically never loses at home in conference play.

And yet the Roadrunners do not seem to be getting the same attention as some of the other teams at the top of the American.

That feels like a mistake.

UTSA went 7-6 last season and 4-4 in the American, so the record does not jump off the page. But this is a program that has not had a losing season under Jeff Traylor. The Roadrunners have not had a losing season since 2019, the year before Traylor arrived.

And here is the number that matters most.

Traylor is 25-1 at the Alamodome in conference play.

That is ridiculous.

It is extremely hard to beat UTSA in San Antonio. If the Roadrunners can clean up some of the defensive issues and avoid the penalty problems that hurt them last year, they can absolutely be in the American title race.

HEAD COACH

  • Jeff Traylor, entering year seven at UTSA
  • Traylor is 53-26 with the Roadrunners.
  • UTSA went 7-6 last season.
  • The Roadrunners finished 4-4 in the American.
  • UTSA has not had a losing season since 2019.

Traylor has built one of the most stable programs in the American.

That matters in this league.

There are a lot of teams replacing quarterbacks. There are teams changing coaches. There are teams trying to figure out what they are going to be.

UTSA already knows.

The Roadrunners are going to score. They are going to play fast enough to stress you. They are going to be balanced. And if you have to go play them in the Alamodome, good luck.

The offense averaged 34.5 points per game last season, which ranked near the top of the country. UTSA also averaged 417 yards per game and was almost perfectly balanced, throwing it on 51% of its plays and running it on 49%.

That is what makes this offense so difficult.

It is not just a passing team.

It is not just a running team.

It can do both.

The defense is the question. Opponents averaged 29.6 points per game and 375 yards per game. That is not terrible, but it is not good enough if UTSA wants to win the American.

The penalties were another issue. UTSA was one of the most penalized teams in the country last season, both in total flags and penalty yards.

That has to get cleaned up.

If it does, this team could be better than the preseason conversation suggests.

QUARTERBACK

This is where UTSA starts.

Owen McCown is back.

And that is a huge deal.

McCown completed 67% of his passes last season for 2,995 yards, 30 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. In a league where a lot of the top teams are replacing quarterbacks, UTSA has one of the best returning passers in the conference.

That alone gives the Roadrunners a chance.

The advanced numbers are even more interesting.

When McCown had a clean pocket, he was excellent. He completed 73% of his throws with 25 touchdowns and only three interceptions.

That is high-level quarterback play.

If you let him sit back there and see it, he will pick you apart.

The next step is handling pressure better.

Under pressure, McCown’s completion percentage dropped to 47%, with five touchdowns and four interceptions. That is not shocking. Most quarterbacks look different when the pocket collapses.

But if McCown can improve there, UTSA’s offense becomes even more dangerous.

The deep-ball numbers were solid too. McCown went 14-of-39 on deep throws with six touchdowns and one interception. That tells you he is not just a checkdown quarterback. He can stretch the field, and UTSA is willing to let him do it.

There may not be many quarterbacks in the American with a better combination of production, experience and supporting cast.

That is why UTSA has to be taken seriously.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense lost its leading receiver, Devin McCuin, but there is still plenty back.

David Amador II returns after catching 45 passes for 443 yards. AJ Wilson is also back after finishing with 31 catches for 528 yards. Those two combined for more than 900 receiving yards last season, and they give McCown two proven options on the outside.

That matters.

A returning quarterback is valuable.

A returning quarterback with familiar receivers is even better.

DJ Allen Jr. is also back after catching 20 passes for 189 yards, and Miles Campbell comes in from Florida A&M after catching 22 passes for 308 yards last season.

So the receiving group has answers.

Maybe not one obvious superstar, but enough pieces to keep the passing game efficient.

The backfield has Will Henderson III, who made two starts last season and rushed for 866 yards. If he can give UTSA a dependable lead back, this offense becomes very hard to defend.

That is the key.

McCown can throw it. The receivers can make plays. But if Henderson helps keep the offense balanced, defenses cannot just sit back and play coverage.

The offensive line should help too.

Darrell Jones, Deandre Marshall and Ben Rios are all back up front. That gives UTSA a strong foundation for an offense that already ranked among the best in the country.

There is no reason to overthink this side of the ball.

UTSA is going to move it.

The Roadrunners averaged nearly 35 points per game last season, and with McCown back, the expectation should be another strong offense.

If anything, the question is whether this group can become one of the very best offenses in the Group of Five.

The answer might be yes.

DEFENSE

This is the side that decides the season.

The offense should be good enough to win the American.

The defense has to prove it will not keep UTSA from doing it.

Only about 35% of the defensive snaps return, and that creates real uncertainty.

The two biggest returning pieces are Tai Leonard and Owen Pewee.

Leonard had 16 tackles and 2.5 sacks last season. Pewee had 31 tackles. They give UTSA something to build around in the front seven, but the Roadrunners need more than just a couple of returning names.

Camron Cooper is also back after getting injured early last season. If he is healthy, that could be a major boost at linebacker.

The secondary has some interesting pieces, including brothers Asaad Chapman and Ahamad Chapman. That group will matter because UTSA is going to play teams that can throw it.

But the defense cannot just survive through the air.

It has to be more consistent across the board.

UTSA gave up almost 30 points per game last season. The yardage numbers were closer to average, but the scoring was still too high.

That is the difference between being a good American team and being a championship team.

If UTSA is giving up 30 every week, the offense has to be nearly perfect.

That is a hard way to live.

If the defense can just become solid, this team becomes dangerous.

It does not have to be elite.

It just has to be good enough.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is the part that makes this tricky.

UTSA opens with UTRGV, then plays three of its next four games on the road: at Texas State, at Texas and at Rice. The only home game in that stretch is Colorado State.

That is not an easy opening month.

Texas State is a rivalry-type game. Texas is obviously a huge challenge. Rice is a conference road game. By the end of September, we should know a lot about this team.

Then comes the biggest stretch of the season.

UTSA hosts South Florida on Oct. 8, then hosts Navy nine days later. After that, the Roadrunners go to Tulane on Oct. 24.

That is brutal.

South Florida, Navy and Tulane could all be American title contenders. UTSA may be one too. That three-game stretch could shape the entire league race.

The good news is South Florida and Navy both have to come to the Alamodome.

That matters.

The bad news is the Tulane game is on the road, and Tulane should be more settled by late October than it will be early in the season.

After that, UTSA goes to Florida Atlantic, hosts North Texas, goes to UAB, and finishes at home against Tulsa.

That means UTSA has two stretches where it plays three of four away from home.

The first one is Texas State, Texas and Rice.

The second one is Tulane, Florida Atlantic and UAB.

That is not ideal.

The home games are the key. If UTSA protects the Alamodome again, the Roadrunners can be in the race. If they drop one or two home games, the road schedule becomes a much bigger problem.

OUTLOOK

I like UTSA a lot.

Maybe more than most people do.

This team has the thing that so many teams in the American are searching for: a proven quarterback.

Owen McCown gives the Roadrunners a high floor. David Amador II, AJ Wilson and DJ Allen Jr. give him familiar targets. Will Henderson III gives the offense a real backfield option. The offensive line has three important pieces back.

The offense should be one of the best in the league.

The concern is the defense and the schedule.

UTSA has to replace a lot defensively. It has to get better at preventing points. It has to stop committing so many penalties. And it has to survive a schedule that includes multiple difficult road stretches.

The best-case scenario is that McCown becomes the best quarterback in the American, the offense pushes toward 35 points per game again, the defense improves just enough, and UTSA keeps being almost impossible to beat at home.

If that happens, the Roadrunners can win the American.

They can even get into the playoff conversation if the rest of the league breaks right.

The worst-case scenario is that the defense is too thin, the penalties keep showing up, and the road schedule knocks them around before November.

My gut?

UTSA is being underrated.

Maybe not ignored completely.

But underrated.

In a league with so much quarterback turnover, the Roadrunners have one of the best returning quarterbacks in the conference. They have a coach who has never had a losing season at UTSA. They have a home-field advantage that is as real as any in the American.

That is a pretty good place to start.

If the defense is even average, UTSA is not just a bowl team.

It is an American championship contender.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.


Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *