Navy season outlook: Can the Midshipmen stay on top without Blake Horvath?

Last year, Navy was not some cute little story.

The Midshipmen were legitimate.

They went 11-2, finished 7-1 in the American, and gave themselves a real argument as one of the best Group of Five teams in the country. Over the last two seasons, Navy is 21-5, and that is not an accident.

At this point, Brian Newberry has earned the right for Navy to be treated as one of the favorites in the American.

But this year is different.

Blake Horvath is gone.

And for a program that asks so much from its quarterback, that is not a small thing.

HEAD COACH

• Brian Newberry, entering year four at Navy
• Newberry is 26-12 with the Midshipmen.
• Navy is 21-5 over the last two seasons.

Navy’s rise under Newberry has been impressive.

Two years ago, this looked like a program trying to get back to what it used to be. Now the Midshipmen look like a real factor in the American every season.

That is the standard now.

And that is why this year is interesting.

Navy has earned respect. The preseason magazines are going to have the Midshipmen near the top of the American. Some may even pick them to win it.

I understand why.

But replacing Horvath is a major deal.

Navy averaged 29.8 points per game last season and 403.9 yards per game. The Midshipmen ran the ball on almost 77% of their plays, which ranked near the top of the country, and still ranked No. 2 nationally in yards per pass attempt.

That tells you how efficient this offense was.

It was not just “run the ball and hope.”

It was run the ball, make you overcommit, then hit you for a huge pass when your eyes got in the wrong place.

That only works when the quarterback is running the whole thing at a high level.

Horvath did that.

Now Navy has to prove the offense can still function without him.

QUARTERBACK

The job appears to belong to Braxton Woodson.

Woodson is a senior quarterback from Altamonte Springs, Florida, and Navy lists him at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds. He has made two career starts and has played in different ways during his career, including quarterback, slotback and wide receiver.

Navy has wanted him on the field because of his speed.

Now he has to be the one running the entire offense.

Woodson has completed 44 of 95 career passes for 466 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. He also has 146 carries for 760 yards and 10 touchdowns.

So he can run.

That is not the question.

The question is whether he can operate the offense the way Horvath did.

This is not an easy system to run. People sometimes talk about option football like it is simple because there are not 40 pass attempts a game. It is not simple. The quarterback has to read everything. He has to make the right decision. He has to protect the ball. He has to understand when to keep it, when to pitch it, when to hand it off, and when to take the shot downfield.

That is a lot.

Woodson has the athletic ability. He has the speed. He has been in the program.

But now he has to be the captain of the whole thing.

That is the biggest question on this team.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The good news is the offensive line.

That is where Navy should feel good.

Sean Crowley, Malcolm Johnson, Cam Nichols and Hoke Smith II are all back up front. Johnson is a sophomore offensive tackle, Smith a senior offensive guard, Nichols a senior center, and Crowley a junior offensive tackle.

That matters a ton.

If you are going to replace the quarterback, the fullback, the leading slotback and a huge chunk of your offensive yardage, the best thing you can have is an experienced line.

Navy has that.

The skill positions are more of a mystery.

Vic Lyczek is expected to be in the mix at fullback, but he has had a lingering hamstring issue. If he is right, he could be a major piece. If not, Navy may need to find answers quickly.

Charles Robinson had a strong spring and could be one of the key slotbacks. That position matters so much in this offense because it is not just about running. The slotbacks have to block, read leverage, handle pitch timing and occasionally hurt teams through the air.

In addition to Horvath, Navy lost Alex Tecza and Eli Heidenreich, and that is a lot of production to replace.

The Midshipmen lost about 68% of their offensive yardage from last season.

That is not nothing.

The line gives them a chance to survive it. The system gives them a chance to survive it. But it is hard to imagine Navy being quite as efficient right away.

The offense can still be good.

But asking it to be exactly what it was last year feels like a lot.

DEFENSE

This is where Navy may need to take a step forward.

The defense was fine last season.

Not bad.

Not great.

Navy allowed 26.5 points per game and 384.6 yards per game, both around the middle of the country. That was good enough last year because the offense was so efficient and because Navy could control games.

But if the offense slips at all, the defense has to help more.

There are reasons to believe it can.

MarcAnthony Parker and Coleman Cauley give Navy a strong linebacker foundation.  Those two combined for 176 tackles last season.

That is a strong place to start.

The secondary also has experience with Phillip Hamilton and Giuseppe Sessi. Sessi had 81 tackles last season, and he gives Navy a reliable piece at safety.

The defensive front includes senior Griffen Willis.

This unit does not have to become elite.

But it does need to be better than average if Navy wants to win the American.

Last year’s offense covered up some things. This year’s offense may need help.

If the defense can become more disruptive, get off the field more consistently, and make opponents play Navy’s kind of game, the Midshipmen can still be right there.

SCHEDULE

Navy opens at home against Towson on Sept. 5, then goes on the road for three straight games: at Florida Atlantic, at UAB and at Air Force.

I do not care who the opponents are.

Three straight road games is tough.

Florida Atlantic can throw it all over the yard. UAB is a conference road game. Air Force is a rivalry game, and service academy games always feel different.

That stretch could tell us a lot about this team.

After that, Navy comes home for Tulsa, goes to UTSA, hosts North Texas, then plays Notre Dame in Foxborough on Halloween. The Midshipmen then host Temple and Memphis, go to Charlotte, and finish with Army in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

The interesting part is the middle of the schedule.

After the UTSA trip on Oct. 17, Navy does not play another true road game until Charlotte on Nov. 28.

That helps.

The Notre Dame game is neutral-site, not easy. But it is not a true road game either.

So the schedule has two different personalities.

The early stretch is tough because of the travel.

The middle gives Navy a chance to settle in.

The ending is always about Army.

And this year, Army-Navy could have a lot on the line again.

OUTLOOK

I understand why people want to pick Navy to win the American.

The Midshipmen have earned that respect.

Newberry has built real momentum. The offensive line is experienced. Woodson has athletic ability. The defense has enough returning pieces to improve. The schedule has some manageable stretches after the early road swing.

That is the optimistic case.

The concern is simple.

Navy lost the guy who made the offense go.

Blake Horvath was not just a quarterback. He was the decision-maker, the leader and the player who made the option dangerous on every snap. Replacing that is hard.

The best-case scenario is that Braxton Woodson brings a different kind of speed to the offense, the line carries the transition, the new skill players settle in quickly, and the defense improves enough to take pressure off the offense.

If that happens, Navy can win the American.

The worst-case scenario is that the offense loses too much efficiency, the new backs are not ready, Woodson goes through growing pains as the full-time quarterback, and the early road stretch puts Navy behind before it settles in.

The American is going to be fun.

And if Navy figures out the quarterback spot quickly, the Midshipmen may be right back where they were last year — in the middle of the conference title race, with a playoff path still sitting out there.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.