Is it harder to build a champion nobody saw coming, or to stay on top once everybody knows you are real?

That is the question for Indiana.

What Curt Cignetti has done in Bloomington is still hard to process. Three years ago, nobody was sitting around saying Indiana was about to become a national power. Nobody thought the Hoosiers would beat Alabama, beat Ohio State, go to Miami, win the national title and finish as the first 16-0 team in college football history.

But it happened.

Now comes the next challenge.

Prove it was not just a moment.

And honestly, Indiana has earned the benefit of the doubt.

The Hoosiers are 27-2 over the last two seasons after winning only 28 total games from 2018-2023. That is an insane turnaround. Indiana has been in the playoff two straight years, won the whole thing last year, and now enters 2026 as one of the teams everyone is chasing.

HEAD COACH:

• Curt Cignetti, entering year three at Indiana
• The Hoosiers are 27-2 over the last two seasons.
• Indiana averaged 39.5 points per game last year.
• The Hoosiers ranked No. 1 nationally in third-down conversion rate.

The wild thing about Indiana’s offense last year is that it had the Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback and still ran the ball on 61% of its plays.

That is one of my favorite stats from last season.

Fernando Mendoza was arguably the best player in the country. He became the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. He led Indiana to a national championship. And yet Indiana did not build the whole thing around throwing it 45 times a game.

That tells you what Cignetti wants this program to be.

Balanced. Physical. Efficient. Smart. Disciplined.

Indiana was No. 1 in turnover margin and No. 4 in fewest penalties per game last season. That is not an accident. That is culture. That is coaching. That is why I do not look at Indiana and say, “Well, Mendoza is gone, so the run is over.”

Mendoza was special.

But Indiana was not just Mendoza.

QUARTERBACK:

This is the biggest storyline.

Fernando Mendoza is gone, and now Josh Hoover comes in from TCU.

And if you are going to replace a Heisman winner, this is about as interesting as it gets.

Hoover has almost 10,000 career passing yards, more than 70 touchdown passes, and 31 career starts. There is nobody in college football coming back with more career passing production than him.

But the question is not whether Hoover can throw.

The question is whether he can play Indiana football.

At TCU, Hoover was often in shootouts. He had to carry a lot. He had to make aggressive throws. Sometimes that meant big plays. Sometimes that meant turnovers.

That will not fly here.

Indiana does not live with sloppy quarterback play. Cignetti’s team was too good in turnover margin last year for that to suddenly become acceptable.

Hoover completed 69% of his passes when kept clean last season, with 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Under pressure, he dropped to 49%, with five touchdowns and five interceptions, per PFF.

That pressure number is the one to watch.

The completion drop is normal. Every quarterback gets worse under pressure. But the interceptions cannot follow him to Bloomington.

For comparison, Mendoza had 32 touchdowns and four interceptions from a clean pocket last year. Under pressure, he still had nine touchdowns and only two interceptions.

That is a huge difference.

Hoover does not need to become Mendoza. That is not fair.

But he does need to be more controlled than he was at TCU.

If Indiana protects him, I think he can put up big numbers.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

Indiana has to replace a lot.

That is the part that keeps this from being automatic.

The Hoosiers only bring back a handful of offensive starters, but one of them is a massive piece: Carter Smith, the Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year. He’s a redshirt senior lineman and getting him back at left tackle is huge for a new quarterback.

That gives Hoover a foundation.

Indiana also brings back Charlie Becker, who had 34 catches for 679 yards and four touchdowns last season. The problem is that Becker is the only one of Indiana’s top seven receivers in receiving yards who returns.

That is a lot of lost production.

The good news is Nick Marsh comes in from Michigan State, and he is a major addition. He had 59 catches for 662 yards and six touchdowns last season.

So the top of the receiver room looks solid.

Becker and Marsh give Hoover two real targets.

The question is what comes after that.

Indiana lost Cooper and Sarratt to the NFL, so the depth of the passing game has to be rebuilt. Somebody else has to emerge. Maybe it is Myles Kendrick. Maybe it is another young guy. Maybe the tight ends become more involved.

But the passing game will look different.

At running back, Indiana has options.

Khobie Martin is back after getting meaningful work during the playoff run. He had 18 carries in the Alabama and Oregon games, which tells you Indiana trusted him in big moments.

Then comes Turbo Richard, which is still one of the best names in college football. He transfers in from Boston College after rushing for 749 yards and nine touchdowns, while also catching 30 passes.

Lee Beebe Jr. is also there after transferring from UAB, where he had a big role before last season.

So Indiana has bodies.

It has talent.

But the offense has to find a new identity.

Last year’s team could lean on Mendoza, the run game, the offensive line, elite third-down efficiency and a bunch of NFL-caliber skill talent.

This year, the names are different.

The standard is not.

DEFENSE

This is why I still trust Indiana.

The defense should be really good again.

Last year, Indiana allowed only 12.5 points per game, which ranked No. 3 nationally. The Hoosiers allowed 278.6 yards per game, which ranked No. 6.

That is elite.

And the way those numbers happened matters.

Opponents passed on Indiana on 57% of their plays, the highest rate in the country. They only ran it on 42% of their plays, the lowest rate in the country.

Why?

Because Indiana was beating the brakes off people.

Teams had to throw. They had to chase points. They had to abandon the run.

Indiana also had the second-most sacks in the country and led the nation with 129 tackles for loss. That is not just a good defense. That is a defense that ruins your game plan.

The Hoosiers bring back enough to feel good.

Up front, Mario Landino and Tyrique Tucker are back at defensive tackle.

At linebacker, Rolijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones return.

The secondary has Amare Ferrell and Jamari Sharpe.

Indiana also added some interesting transfers.

Tobi Osunsanmi comes in from Kansas State, Josh Burnham comes in from Notre Dame, AJ Harris comes in from Penn State, Chiddi Obiazor comes in from Kansas State, and Preston Zachman comes in from Wisconsin.

So yes, there are new faces.

But this defense should be fine.

Maybe it is not quite as dominant as last year. That is a high bar. But with the returning pieces, transfer additions and Cignetti’s overall program structure, I am not worried about Indiana falling apart on that side of the ball.

If anything, the defense may be what gives Hoover time to settle in.

SCHEDULE

The schedule gives Indiana a chance to build into the season again.

The Hoosiers open with four straight home games: North Texas, Howard, Western Kentucky and Northwestern. Indiana’s official schedule lists all four in Bloomington before the first road game.

People are going to complain about the non-conference schedule.

They did last year too.

But Indiana is not going to apologize for it. The Hoosiers have used those starts to build rhythm, stay healthy and get ready for Big Ten play. It has worked.

After that, things get real.

Indiana goes on the road to Rutgers on Oct. 3 and Nebraska on Oct. 10. Then comes Ohio State in Bloomington on Oct. 17, followed by a trip to Michigan on Oct. 24.

That is the stretch.

That is where we find out a lot.

I do not care if Rutgers and Nebraska are not Ohio State and Michigan. Back-to-back road games are still back-to-back road games. Then you come home for what could be one of the biggest games of the year against Ohio State. Then you turn around and go to the Big House.

That is brutal.

If Indiana gets through that stretch clean, or even close to clean, the Hoosiers are absolutely back in the national title conversation.

After that, Indiana hosts Minnesota, gets a bye, hosts USC, goes to Washington, and finishes with Purdue at home.

The USC-Washington stretch is interesting too.

Getting USC after a bye helps. Going to Washington does not. Husky Stadium has been a nightmare for a lot of teams, and late November in Seattle is not exactly a friendly spot.

But overall, the schedule is manageable for a team with national title expectations.

The hard games are obvious.

Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Washington, maybe Nebraska depending on how that team develops.

The path is there.

OUTLOOK

The Hoosiers are the defending national champions. They have been in the playoff two straight years. They have one of the best coaches in the sport. They have an experienced quarterback coming in. They have one of the best offensive linemen in the country. They have enough receiver talent. They have a defense that should be very good again.

This is not a fluke.

But repeating is hard.

Really hard.

Indiana is replacing Fernando Mendoza, and you do not just replace a Heisman winner and No. 1 overall pick like it is nothing. The Hoosiers also lost a ton of receiving production and have to rebuild part of the offense.

That is the concern.

The optimistic case is that Josh Hoover walks in, takes care of the football, lets Cignetti structure the offense around him, leans on Carter Smith, gets the ball to Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh, and lets the defense keep Indiana in control of games.

If that happens, Indiana can absolutely repeat.

The worst-case scenario is that Hoover brings too much TCU chaos with him, the receiver room misses last year’s NFL talent, the run game takes time to settle, and the October stretch catches the Hoosiers before the new offense is fully comfortable.

I am not saying going 16-0 again is likely. It is not. That is almost impossible to repeat.

But this team is too well-coached, too disciplined and too talented to disappear.

Last year, Indiana proved it could shock the sport.

This year, the Hoosiers have to prove they can rule it when everybody sees them coming.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.