In college football, there are not many things you can count on anymore.

The transfer portal changes everything. Coaches move. Quarterbacks leave. Conferences barely look like conferences anymore.

But Iowa winning eight or nine games?

That still feels about as safe as death and taxes.

The Hawkeyes went 9-4 last season and 6-3 in the Big Ten, and they did it in the most Iowa way possible. They played defense. They ran the football. They made games ugly. They forced opponents to play in the mud.

And honestly, that is still what makes Iowa dangerous.

Nobody wants to see the Hawkeyes sitting in the middle of the schedule. You may have more talent. You may have a better quarterback. You may have more explosive receivers. But if you get dragged into an Iowa game, suddenly it is 16-13 in the fourth quarter and one mistake can beat you.

That is the beauty and frustration of Kirk Ferentz football.

Now the question is whether Iowa can do more than just be tough.

Can the Hawkeyes find enough offense to actually threaten the top tier of the Big Ten?

HEAD COACH:

• Kirk Ferentz, entering year 28 at Iowa
• Ferentz is 213-128 as Iowa’s head coach.
• Iowa went 9-4 last season and 6-3 in the Big Ten.
• The Hawkeyes are 35-19 over the last four seasons.
• Iowa has won at least eight games every full season since 2015.

At this point, Kirk Ferentz is Iowa football.

He is entering his 28th season as head coach, which is almost impossible to wrap your mind around in modern college football. The sport has changed a dozen times around him, and Ferentz is still there, still winning, still making Iowa look like Iowa.

The formula is not complicated.

Play great defense. Be physical. Run the ball. Win field position. Avoid disasters. Make the opponent uncomfortable.

It is not always pretty.

But it works.

Iowa averaged 28.9 points per game last season, which was actually a big step up from some of the ugly offensive years people remember. The yardage still looked very Iowa — just 316.9 yards per game, ranked 118th nationally — but the Hawkeyes found enough points to win nine games. Defensively, they allowed only 16.8 points per game and 289.3 yards per game, both top-10 marks nationally.

That is the Iowa experience.

The offense might not scare you.

The defense absolutely does.

QUARTERBACK:

This is the biggest unknown.

Mark Gronowski is gone, and that matters more than people may realize.

Gronowski was not a high-volume passer last season. He threw 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions, so it is not like Iowa is replacing a 4,000-yard quarterback.

But he gave Iowa something huge: a quarterback run game.

Gronowski ran 130 times for 545 yards and 16 touchdowns last season. That changed the math for the Hawkeyes, especially near the goal line. When Iowa got into scoring range, it had a quarterback who could finish drives with his legs.

That may not be easy to replace.

The quarterback battle appears to be between Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown. Hecklinski is a sophomore who came from Wake Forest and has barely played. Brown is a junior from Auburn who has more experience, but still not a ton. Iowa’s roster lists both quarterbacks, with Brown coming from Auburn and Hecklinski coming from Wake Forest.

Brown threw only 21 passes last season. He had 107 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Before that, he threw 52 passes across his time at Auburn.

Hecklinski threw only two passes last year at Iowa.

So this is not a quarterback room full of proven Big Ten production.

That does not mean Iowa is doomed. Iowa has won a lot of games without elite quarterback play. But the Hawkeyes do need one of these guys to be functional.

That is the word.

Functional.

Complete the easy throws. Protect the ball. Do not make the defense defend short fields. Hit a few play-action shots. Hand it to the running backs and stay out of the way when the game calls for it.

If Brown or Hecklinski can do that, Iowa can win plenty of games.

But if the quarterback run game disappears and the passing game does not improve, the offense could slide right back toward the version of Iowa everyone jokes about.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The quarterback is a question.

The running back room is not.

Kamari Moulton is back after rushing for 878 yards and five touchdowns last season. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry, and he gives Iowa a real lead back to build around.

That is huge.

Moulton is not alone, either.

Lendon “L.J.” Phillips Jr. comes in from South Dakota, and his numbers are ridiculous. Phillips rushed for 1,920 yards and 19 touchdowns last season, and Iowa lists him as a junior running back from South Dakota.

That gives Iowa a pretty fun one-two punch.

Moulton has proven he can produce in the Big Ten. Phillips was a monster at the FCS level. Together, they should allow Iowa to keep doing what Iowa wants to do: shorten games, lean on the run, protect the quarterback and let the defense control the flow.

The offensive line has some work to do.

Iowa has to replace Logan Jones, the Remington Trophy-winning center. That is not easy. Centers matter everywhere, but they really matter at Iowa, where the run game and protection calls are such a big part of the identity.

The good news is Trevor Lauck is back at offensive tackle, and Kade Pieper is back on the line as well.

Lauck especially matters because if Iowa is breaking in a quarterback, having stability at tackle is a big deal.

The receiver room still feels like the usual Iowa question.

Who scares anybody?

That has been the issue for years. Iowa does not need to become Ohio State at receiver, but it does need somebody who can punish defenses for loading up against the run.

If the passing game is just occasional third-and-7 hope, this offense has a ceiling.

If the run game is strong enough to force safeties down and the quarterback can hit some shots, Iowa becomes much harder to deal with.

DEFENSE

This is where Iowa should be Iowa again.

The Hawkeyes were outstanding defensively last season.

They allowed 16.8 points per game, eighth-best nationally, and only 289.3 yards per game, ninth-best nationally. Opponents converted only 20% of their fourth-down attempts, the best mark in the country.

That is not just good.

That is suffocating.

Iowa makes everything difficult. It tackles. It stays in position. It does not give away cheap explosives. It makes you earn every yard. And when an offense is used to getting easy throws or easy run lanes, the Hawkeyes can make the whole thing feel frustrating in a hurry.

There are only a few returning starters, but the names are important.

Jayden Montgomery is back at linebacker. Deshaun Lee is back in the secondary. Zach Lutmer is also back at defensive back.

The transfer additions are interesting too.

Defensive back Tyler Brown comes in from James Madison, and Kahmari Brown, a defensive lineman, transfers in from Elon.

The bigger portal story is that Iowa has brought in more transfers than usual.

That is worth watching.

For years, Ferentz built this program by developing players over time. Redshirt them. Teach them. Let them grow. Turn three-star prospects into NFL players.

That is still part of Iowa’s DNA.

But college football is different now.

You cannot always wait three years for development. Players transfer. Depth changes quickly. Rosters turn over faster. So Iowa has to adapt without losing what makes Iowa Iowa.

That is one of the more interesting parts of this season.

Can Ferentz blend the old Iowa development model with the new transfer-portal world?

If he can, the defense should be fine.

It usually is.

SCHEDULE

The first six games are going to tell us a lot.

Iowa opens with Northern Illinois, then gets Iowa State and Northern Iowa at home. After that, things get real fast: at Michigan, home against Ohio State, then at Washington. Iowa’s official schedule has that exact opening stretch before the back half begins with Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska.

That is a tough start.

The Iowa State game is always weird. It is almost always low-scoring. It almost always feels like both teams are fighting over every inch. Last year, Iowa lost that game 16-13, which is about as Iowa-Iowa State as it gets.

Then comes the Big Ten gauntlet.

At Michigan.

Ohio State at home.

At Washington.

That is brutal.

Michigan and Ohio State back-to-back is hard enough. Add a road trip to Husky Stadium right after that, and you have a stretch that could define the entire season.

If Iowa gets through the first six games at 4-2, Hawkeye fans should probably feel pretty good.

If it is 3-3, that would not be shocking.

The good news is the back half of the schedule is much more manageable.

Iowa finishes with at Minnesota, Wisconsin, at Northwestern, Purdue, at Illinois and Nebraska.

That does not mean easy.

But compared to Michigan, Ohio State and Washington in a three-game stretch, it is a lot more reasonable.

The schedule sets up like this:

Survive the first half.

Make a run in the second half.

OUTLOOK

Iowa is going to be Iowa.

The defense will be tough. The games will be physical. The Hawkeyes will make opponents uncomfortable. There will be at least one game where a more explosive team gets dragged into an ugly fourth quarter and wonders how it happened.

That is what Iowa does.

The harder question is whether the offense can be good enough.

Losing Mark Gronowski’s rushing production matters. That quarterback run game helped Iowa finish drives last season. If the new quarterback does not bring that same element, the passing game has to give the offense something else.

The running backs should help.

Kamari Moulton and L.J. Phillips give Iowa a real backfield. If the offensive line comes together, the Hawkeyes should be able to lean on the run game and protect whichever quarterback wins the job.

The best-case scenario is that Hank Brown or Jeremy Hecklinski settles in, the run game becomes one of the better ones in the Big Ten, the offensive line grows up quickly, and the defense stays top-15 nationally.

If that happens, Iowa can absolutely win nine or 10 games again.

The worst-case scenario is that the quarterback situation never really settles, the offense misses Gronowski’s legs, the passing game stays limited, and the early schedule puts Iowa in a hole before October even gets rolling.

Winning nine games is great.

But if Iowa wants to be a real Big Ten contender, the offense has to give the defense more help.

The defense will keep Iowa in games.

The running backs will give the Hawkeyes a chance.

Now the quarterback has to make sure the offense does not hold everything back.