If you talk to Miami fans this offseason, they will tell you this is the year.

The Hurricanes just played for the national championship. They are 23-6 over the last two seasons. They are 35-19 under Mario Cristobal. They have not lost a game by more than a touchdown since Oct. 14, 2023. That is 36 straight games without getting blown out, the longest streak in the nation.

So this is not fake hype.

Miami has a real roster. Miami has a real coach. Miami has real momentum. And in a very wide-open ACC, the Hurricanes should absolutely be the favorite.

But here is the funny part, that seems to be a forgotten point in history. Miami did not win the ACC last year.

Duke did.

People are going to forget that because Miami went on a playoff run and made the national title game. But the Hurricanes did not even play in the ACC Championship Game. And now the quarterback who did win the ACC is in Coral Gables.

That is what makes this so fascinating.

Darian Mensah won the league at Duke.

Now he is trying to win the whole thing at Miami.

HEAD COACH:

• Mario Cristobal, entering another huge year at Miami
• Cristobal is 35-19 with the Hurricanes.
• Miami is 23-6 over the last two seasons.
• Miami went 13-3 last year and lost to Indiana in the national championship game.

I know people still like to argue about Mario Cristobal.

Some fans love him. Some fans still hold onto the old mistakes. Some people will not let go of the clock management stuff, like the unbelievable Georgia Tech loss a few years ago when Miami just had to take a knee. I understand all of that.

But at some point, the results matter.

Cristobal has built this thing in the way you would expect him to build it: line of scrimmage first, physicality first, recruiting first, talent first.

Last year, Miami had the No. 1 pass-blocking offensive line in the country by PFF. The Hurricanes also had the No. 1 pass-rush defense by PFF.

That is how you play for a national championship.

You can talk about quarterbacks, receivers, playmakers, scheme and all of that. And Miami has plenty of those things too. But when you control both lines of scrimmage, you have a chance to beat almost anybody.

Now the question is whether Miami can do it again after losing some major pieces up front.

Because the skill talent is ridiculous.

The line of scrimmage is where the season gets interesting.

QUARTERBACK:

This is the biggest storyline in the ACC.

Carson Beck is gone, and I think he was a little underrated in what he did for Miami last year.

Beck was not always flashy. And I think some people remember the Louisville game too much because that was the game that nearly wrecked Miami’s playoff hopes. But overall, Beck was exactly what Miami needed him to be.

He managed the game. He protected the ball. He let the offensive line, the run game and the defense carry weight. And when Miami needed him to go win a game — like the playoff win over Ole Miss — he got the job done.

But now Miami replaces him with Darian Mensah, and this offense may look different because of it.

Mensah threw for 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns at Duke. He had six 300-yard passing games. He won the ACC.

And the stat that jumps off the page is the deep passing.

Mensah threw 86 passes of 20-plus air yards last season, which was the most in the country.

Carson Beck played two more games than Mensah and threw 63 deep balls. So Mensah threw 23 more passes of 20-plus air yards while playing fewer games.

That tells you who he is.

He is not afraid to challenge defenses.

However, a little more context is important. Mensah completed only 37% of those deep throws, which was around average nationally. So we do not need to pretend every deep ball was a perfect strike.

But the willingness matters.

Miami is not bringing in a quarterback who wants to dink and dunk all day. Mensah is going to push the ball down the field. He is going to make safeties back up. He is going to give Miami’s receivers chances.

And that brings us to the other part of this move.

Cooper Barkate came with him.

Barkate caught 72 passes for 1,106 yards and seven touchdowns at Duke last season. He also had 27 targets on throws of 20-plus yards downfield.

So Miami did not just add a quarterback.

Miami added the quarterback and one of the receivers he already trusts.

That matters immediately.

If Mensah and Barkate already have timing, chemistry and confidence together, Miami does not have to spend the first month figuring everything out.

They already brought part of Duke’s ACC title offense with them.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

This is where Miami gets scary.

Because Barkate might not even be the best receiver on the team.

Malachi Toney is back, and he is electric.

Toney caught 109 passes last season for more than 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns. He also ran the ball 23 times for 113 yards and another touchdown.

That is not just a receiver. That is a weapon.

And I would imagine offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson spent the offseason thinking of even more ways to get him the football. Maybe more flea flickers.

Now add Barkate to that.

Now add Mark Fletcher at running back.

Fletcher ran 216 times for 1,192 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. He also caught 17 passes and scored a couple more touchdowns as a receiver.

So just look at the pieces.

Darian Mensah at quarterback.

Malachi Toney at receiver.

Cooper Barkate at receiver.

Mark Fletcher at running back.

That is why Miami fans are going to ask, “How is this not the preseason No. 1 team in the country?”

And I understand the argument.

The concern is not the skill talent.

The concern is the offensive line.

Miami only brings back one offensive lineman from last year’s dominant group: Matthew McCoy.

That is the part that should make people pause.

Last year’s Miami offense worked because the line was outstanding. Beck had time. Fletcher had lanes. Miami could control games. If this offensive line is merely good instead of elite, the whole thing changes a little.

Now, I trust Cristobal to figure out the offensive line more than I would trust most coaches. That is his background. That is what he cares about. That is what he recruits.

But replacing that much up front is still replacing that much up front.

And when you are trying to win a national championship, “probably fine” is not the same thing as proven.

DEFENSE

Miami’s defense should be nasty again.

The Hurricanes return seven starters on that side of the ball, and the secondary is especially interesting because so many pieces are back.

The names to know start with Ahmad Moten, who was a second-team All-ACC player. Mohamed Toure and Zechariah Poyser were honorable mention All-ACC players. Miami also brings back Justin Scott, O.J. Frederique, Xavier Lucas and Ethan O’Connor.

That is a lot of experience.

And when you already had one of the best defenses in the country, bringing back that much experience is a big deal.

The question is whether Miami can keep the pass rush at the same level.

The Hurricanes have to replace Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, and that is not easy.

Those are the kinds of players who change games.

Last year, Miami’s pass rush was a major reason the Hurricanes were so good. They did not need to get cute. They could win up front. They could speed up quarterbacks. They could make offenses uncomfortable.

That has to continue.

Because if the pass rush drops off, the defense can still be good, but maybe it is not quite as terrifying.

Miami also only lost 18 scholarship players, which sounds like a lot if you are thinking about college football from 15 years ago. But in the modern NIL and transfer portal world, that is actually pretty manageable.

But this is not a team starting over.

This is a team reloading in specific spots.

And if the defensive front holds up, Miami is going to be a problem again.

SCHEDULE

This is one of the most interesting parts of Miami’s season.

Last year, one of the wildest things about Miami’s schedule was that the Hurricanes did not leave the state of Florida until November.

That is almost impossible to believe.

They played at Florida State, but that is still in Florida. Florida came to them. Miami was able to build momentum without much travel, and that absolutely helped.

This year is different.

I am not saying the schedule is harder. I actually think it is very manageable.

But the travel dynamic is different.

Miami opens at Stanford on Sept. 4, which is about as far as you can go in the continental United States from Miami.

The good news is that the Stanford game comes in Week 1. If you have to make that trip, that is probably when you want to make it. Miami is not coming off a Saturday game and turning around for a Friday night road trip. The Hurricanes can prepare for it all offseason.

After Stanford, Miami plays Florida A&M six days later, then has another Friday game against Wake Forest, then gets Central Michigan.

Then comes Clemson on Oct. 3.

That is the first huge checkpoint.

That means three of Miami’s first five games are away from home, with trips to Stanford, Wake Forest and Clemson.

That is a very different opening stretch than last year.

After Clemson, Miami gets a bye week before hosting Florida State.

Three of Miami’s ACC opponents play on Friday before playing the Hurricanes. On paper, that gives some teams an extra day of rest. But before Florida State, Miami has a bye, so that one does not matter as much.

Still, it is something to watch.

After Florida State, Miami hosts Pitt, then plays back-to-back road games at North Carolina and Notre Dame.

That Notre Dame game is massive.

It is a night game in South Bend, and it could easily be one of the biggest games of the entire college football season. There is a world where both Miami and Notre Dame are unbeaten or close to it when that game kicks off.

That could be a top-five type game.

The schedule then turns in Miami’s favor.

The Hurricanes finish with three straight home games: Duke, Virginia Tech and Boston College.

So even though Miami has more early travel than last year, the back end is friendly. Five of Miami’s last seven games are at home.

The other big thing?

Miami does not play SMU or Louisville.

Those were the two teams that beat Miami last year.

They are not on the schedule.

That is huge.

Miami also does not have to go to Florida State or Florida.

So yes, the early travel is different. Yes, Stanford is a long trip. Yes, Clemson and Notre Dame are real tests.

But overall?

This is a schedule Miami can absolutely manage.

OUTLOOK

I think Miami is the clear ACC favorite.

I do not think that is a hot take.

The Hurricanes have the best combination of roster talent, recent results, coaching stability and high-end playmakers in the league.

They have Darian Mensah, who just won the ACC at Duke.

They have Malachi Toney, who is one of the most dangerous players in the country.

They have Cooper Barkate, who already knows Mensah and gives Miami another proven receiver.

They have Mark Fletcher, who can carry the run game.

They return a bunch of defensive starters.

They have a schedule that avoids SMU and Louisville.

There is a lot to like.

But the concerns are real enough to keep this from being automatic.

The offensive line has to be rebuilt. The pass rush has to replace major pieces. Mensah has to prove that his aggressive downfield style translates cleanly into a new offense. And Miami has to handle a different travel schedule than it had last year.

That is why this season is so interesting.

Miami is not sneaking up on anybody.

This is not “maybe Miami is back.”

Miami is back in the national conversation already.

Now the Hurricanes have to handle being the hunted.

The best-case scenario is obvious: Mensah becomes a Heisman contender, Toney and Barkate become one of the best receiver duos in the country, Fletcher gives the offense balance, the new offensive line comes together quickly, and the defense stays elite.

If that happens, Miami can win the ACC and absolutely get back to the national championship game.

The worst-case scenario is that the line takes time, the pass rush is not quite the same, Mensah is aggressive but inconsistent, and the early road games create more stress than expected. But my gut says this HAS to be the year Miami actually gets to the ACC Championship.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.