There are going to be a lot of people who like Louisville in the ACC this year.

The Cardinals went 9-4 last season. They beat Miami, which ended up being the ACC team everyone remembers because the Hurricanes went all the way to the national title game. Louisville did not just beat Miami, either. The Cardinals got after Carson Beck, made him uncomfortable, and showed on a big stage that this team was good enough to bother anybody in the league.

But that is kind of the Louisville story right now.

There is a lot to like. There is also a lot to replace.

And the entire season may come down to whether Lincoln Kienholz is ready to be the guy at quarterback.

HEAD COACH:

• Jeff Brohm, entering year four at Louisville
• Brohm is 28-12 with the Cardinals.
• Louisville went 9-4 last season.
• Since joining the ACC in 2014, Louisville has had only one 10-win season, which came in 2023.

I think Jeff Brohm has done a great job at Louisville.

This program has been competitive. It has been fun. It has been dangerous. And when Louisville is right, the Cardinals are one of those teams nobody really wants to play because they can score, they can create pressure, and they usually have enough taent to make a game uncomfortable.

That is why people are going to talk themselves into Louisville as an ACC contender.

The league feels open after Miami. There is no obvious Clemson monster sitting there like there used to be. Duke just won the ACC, but the Blue Devils have to replace Darian Mensah. Virginia was in the title game, but the Cavaliers feel like part of the chasing group again this year, not a clear title contender. Florida State is trying to get off the mat. Georgia Tech has questions without Haynes King.

So why not Louisville?

That is the case.

But if Louisville is going to take the next step, it has to prove it can survive all the turnover on offense.

QUARTERBACK:

This is the biggest question.

Miller Moss is gone, and now Louisville turns to Lincoln Kienholz, the transfer from Ohio State.

Kienholz is talented. That part is not really the issue. He was the No. 13 quarterback in his class as a senior in 2022, and there is a reason Ohio State wanted him in the first place.

But he has not played much college football.

At Ohio State, Kienholz went 11-of-14 passing with a touchdown this past season. He also ran 11 times for 66 yards and two rushing touchdowns. In his entire college career, he has thrown only 36 passes.

That’s right, 36 passes. This is not a proven Power Four starter walking into Louisville.

This is Louisville betting on talent.

That does not mean it’s a bad bet. It might be a great one. But it is still a bet.

The good news is that Louisville does not need him to be perfect. The Cardinals have a run game that can help him. They have a coach who knows offense. They have enough schedule advantages to let this thing build.

But they do need him to be better in one area where Moss was not great last season — The deep ball.

Moss threw 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions last year, but he was not great pushing the ball down the field. He went 18-of-44 on throws of 20-plus air yards, with five touchdowns and three interceptions.

That has to improve.

If Kienholz can hit some vertical shots, this offense changes quickly. If defenses have to respect the deep ball, those Louisville running backs become even scarier.

But if teams can crowd the line of scrimmage, squeeze the run game and force Kienholz to win with new receivers behind a rebuilt offensive line, that is where things get complicated.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The Cardinals might have the scariest running back duo in the entire ACC.

And it is not really thunder and lightning. It is more like lightning and lightning.

Isaac Brown led the nation last season with 8.8 yards per carry. That is ridiculous. He was basically a walking first down every time he touched the ball.

Then his backup, Keyjuan Brown, averaged 7.3 yards per carry, which ranked fourth nationally.

So Louisville has the No. 1 running back in yards per carry and the No. 4 running back in yards per carry on the same roster.

That is insane.

Isaac Brown had 101 carries last year. Keyjuan Brown had 96. This is not some situation where one guy had eight carries and popped a long run. These guys were consistently explosive.

That gives Louisville a real identity.

If Kienholz is settling in, lean on the backs. If the passing game is not quite ready, lean on the backs. If the offensive line needs time, let the backs create some explosives by bouncing outside and making something happen.

The problem is that the offensive line is also being rebuilt.

Lance Robinson is the only returning offensive lineman. Louisville has to replace five of its six most experienced offensive linemen, which is a big deal for a team that wants to run the ball and protect a new quarterback.

That is probably the biggest concern on the entire offense.

Because you can have great running backs, but if the line is not ready, those lanes close fast.

The receiver room is also very different.

Louisville lost its top targets. Chris Bell is gone after catching 72 passes. Caullin Lacy is gone after catching 60 passes. The top four players in targets from last year are no longer on the roster.

That is a lot.

The Cardinals did bring in help though.

Trey Richardson comes in from Vanderbilt after catching 46 passes for 806 yards and seven touchdowns. That is a big addition. LaWayne McCoy comes in from Florida State. Brody Foley, an All-AAC tight end from Tulsa, comes in after catching 37 passes and seven touchdowns.

Louisville also brings back TreyShun Hurry at receiver and Jaleel Skinner at tight end. They had 36 catches combined last year and will look for bigger roles.

So there are options.

But there is a difference between having options and knowing who the guy is.

That is what Louisville has to figure out.

Who is Kienholz going to trust on third down? Who scares defenses outside? Who replaces the production Bell and Lacy gave them?

If Louisville finds those answers, the offense can be really good.

If not, the Cardinals may be a dangerous running team that gets stuck when opponents force them to throw.

DEFENSE

This is the part that made me buy Louisville last year.

The pass rush was real and ranked fourth in Pro Football Focus’ grades last season.

Before that Miami game, I remember thinking Louisville’s defensive front could give Miami problems. And that is exactly what happened. The Cardinals bothered Carson Beck, sped him up, pressured him and made Miami look uncomfortable.

In modern college football, if you can bother the quarterback without having to blitz everybody, you have a chance.

The question is whether Louisville can do it again.

The Cardinals return some really nice defensive pieces. TJ Capers is back at linebacker. Tayon Holloway is back at defensive back. Defensive lineman Cleve Lubin is back after earning third-team All-ACC honors with 8.5 sacks. Antonio Watts is back in the secondary after a three interception season.

Brown was also a third-team All-ACC player. Watts and Holloway earned honorable mention All-ACC recognition.

So this is not an empty defense.

There is talent here.

But if Louisville is going to be a real ACC contender, the defense has to be more than “solid.” It has to still be disruptive.

Because the offense may need time.

Kienholz is new. The offensive line is new. The receivers are new. That usually means there will be some awkward drives early in the season.

If the defense can keep pressure on quarterbacks and create short fields, Louisville can survive that.

If the pass rush takes a big step back, the Cardinals may have to win more shootouts than they want.

And that is dangerous when you are breaking in a quarterback.

SCHEDULE

This is one of the biggest reasons to like Louisville.

The schedule sets up really well.

That does not mean it is easy, because it is not. But it is friendly in some very important ways.

Louisville opens on a Sunday in Nashville against Ole Miss. That is a huge stage. Labor Day weekend, national spotlight, SEC opponent, neutral site.

That is the kind of game that can change the way people talk about your program immediately.

If Louisville beats Ole Miss, the Cardinals are going to get a lot of national attention very quickly.

The weird part is what happens next.

Louisville plays Villanova five days later on Friday. That is strange scheduling. I cannot imagine many Power Four teams are playing two games in five days, but that is what Louisville is doing.

After that, the Cardinals get SMU, which is one of the biggest early ACC games on the schedule.

So even though Louisville’s schedule is favorable overall, the beginning is not a joke.

Ole Miss and SMU in the first three games is a real test.

Then Louisville gets Wake Forest, goes to NC State on Oct. 3, and hosts Florida State on Oct. 9.

Here is the part I love for Louisville:

The Cardinals do not play at Cal, Stanford or SMU.

They also do not play Miami, Duke or Virginia.

That is a big deal.

In this version of the ACC, avoiding the West Coast trips matters. Avoiding Miami matters. Avoiding the two teams that played in last year’s ACC Championship Game matters.

Louisville’s farthest ACC road trip is Syracuse.

That is a win before the games even start.

By the end of October, Louisville will have only played two true road games: NC State and Syracuse. The Ole Miss game is neutral site, but it is not a true road game.

That is a very manageable travel setup.

The tougher part comes late.

In November, Louisville plays at Georgia Tech, at North Carolina, hosts Pitt, then goes to Kentucky.

So three of the final four are on the road.

That is not easy.

Georgia Tech should still be a bowl team. North Carolina has plenty to prove. Pitt could be tough. Kentucky is a rivalry game, and there are a lot of people in Lexington excited about that team.

Still, compared to what some other ACC teams are dealing with, Louisville should feel pretty good about this schedule.

If you are going to make a run in the ACC, this is the kind of schedule that gives you a chance.

OUTLOOK

I understand why people are going to like Louisville.

I may end up talking myself into them too.

The running backs are scary. Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown can flip the field at any moment. Jeff Brohm knows offense. The schedule is favorable. The defense has enough returning talent to stay dangerous. And if the pass rush is even close to what it was last year, Louisville is going to be a problem.

But there are real concerns.

Lincoln Kienholz in inexperienced and raw. The offensive line is replacing almost everybody. The receiver room lost its top targets. The passing game may take time. And even with the schedule advantages, games against Ole Miss, SMU, NC State, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Pitt and Kentucky are not automatic.

That is why Louisville is interesting.

The case for them is easy to make.

The case against them is also pretty easy to make.

The best-case scenario is that Kienholz is ready right away, the running backs are as explosive as they were last year, one or two new receivers become real weapons, and the defense stays disruptive enough for Louisville to compete at the top of the ACC.

If that happens, the Cardinals could absolutely be in the ACC Championship conversation.

The worst-case scenario is that Kienholz looks inexperienced, the offensive line takes too long to come together, defenses load up on the run, and Louisville loses a couple of early games before the offense finds itself.

My gut says this team is dangerous.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.