Saturday, 2026-09-12 | 2:30 PM CT | UFCU Stadium, San Marcos, TX | CW
DraftKings snapshot: TXST -1.5 | Over/under: 64.5 [S1]
What’s at stake
The I-35 Showdown has flipped: UTSA won the first five meetings, but Texas State has won the last two. UTSA arrives after a 45-16 win over UTRGV; Texas State comes home after a 59-7 loss at Texas. Week 2 will show whether the Bobcats’ rivalry edge survives two very different opening tests. [S2/S3/S4]
Texas State is favored by only 1.5 points in the current DraftKings snapshot. That fits a rivalry that produced 79 points, six lead changes and 951 yards last season. [S1/S5]
Three things to know
- UTSA’s offense was explosive—and sloppy: The Roadrunners averaged 8.6 yards per rush and gained 525 yards, but committed 11 penalties for 115 yards. Those free yards are more dangerous against a rival than they were against an FCS opponent. [S2]
- Texas State’s rushing total deserves context: The Bobcats lost by 52 at Texas but still rushed for 161 yards on 41 carries. UTSA allowed UTRGV to rush for 177, so Texas State has a realistic path to keep the ball away from Owen McCown even after an ugly final score. [S2/S3]
- One team protected the ball; one did not: McCown threw three touchdowns without an interception and UTSA had no turnovers. Texas State threw one interception and lost two fumbles. In a series where five of seven games were decided by eight points or fewer, that difference can decide the rivalry. [S2/S3/S4]
Stat comparison
| Metric | UTSA 2026 | Texas St 2026 | UTSA 2025 rank | Texas St 2025 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 45.0 (No. 35*) | 7.0 (No. 122*) | No. 5 | No. 13 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.0 (No. 67*) | 59.0 (No. 128*) | No. 104 | No. 132 |
| Yards per game | 525.0 (No. 30*) | 349.0 (No. 93*) | No. 28 | No. 5 |
| Yards allowed per game | 422.0 (No. 104*) | 516.0 (No. 120*) | No. 65 | No. 79 |
| Passing yards per game | 275.0 (No. 43*) | 188.0 (No. 92*) | No. 46 | No. 43 |
| Passing yards allowed per game | 245.0 (No. 96*) | 360.0 (No. 123*) | No. 75 | No. 61 |
| Turnover margin | +2 (No. 12*) | -2 (No. 107*) | No. 30 | No. 99 |
*The 2026 ranking is based on the 131 teams who had played by Saturday night. We did not wait on the Sunday and Monday college football games to publish the majority of our previews. [S9]
Players to watch
- UTSA — Owen McCown: He completed 22 of 27 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. He directed a 525-yard opener without giving UTRGV a short field. [S2/S7]
- Texas State — Tucker Cusano: He caught three passes for 58 yards at Texas, averaging 19.3 yards per catch in a game where explosive chances were rare. [S3/S8]
Looking for a prediction?
I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.
Sources
- S1: ESPN UTSA–Texas State game page and DraftKings feed
- S2: ESPN UTRGV–UTSA final box score
- S3: ESPN Texas State–Texas final box score
- S4: Texas State official football history vs. UTSA
- S5: Texas State official 43-36 UTSA recap from 2025
- S6: UTSA official 2026 opener notes and team information
- S7: UTSA official 2026 football roster
- S8: Texas State official 2026 football roster
- S9: SportsDataverse/ESPN 2025 team-summary source
Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.
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