The last two seasons under Bret Bielema are not just good by recent Illinois standards.

They are historic.

Illinois has won 19 games over the last two seasons, which is the most wins in a two-year stretch in program history. The Illini also posted the first back-to-back nine-win seasons in school history. That is a big deal at Illinois.

And yet, it still feels like there is another step sitting out there.

The Illini went 9-4 last year and 5-4 in the Big Ten. They were good. They were solid. They won a bowl game. But they were not really a major factor in the Big Ten title race.

That is the question now.

Can Illinois go from good story to real Big Ten problem?

HEAD COACH:

• Bret Bielema, entering year six at Illinois
• Bielema is 37-26 with the Illini.
• Illinois went 9-4 last season.

I think we can stop wondering whether Bret Bielema has stabilized Illinois.

He has.

That does not mean Illinois is Ohio State. It does not mean Illinois is Oregon. It does not mean the Illini are suddenly a yearly College Football Playoff lock.

But this program is no longer a doormat.

And that matters.

Illinois has become a team that expects to win eight or nine games. That is a very different conversation than where this program has been for most of its modern history.

The issue now is ceiling.

Illinois has beaten good teams. It has been tough. It has won bowl games. It has become respectable.

But when the Illini have played the top of the Big Ten, it has not always looked close enough. Last year, Indiana absolutely blasted Illinois 63-10 on its way to a national title. The Illini also lost to Ohio State. The year before, they lost to Oregon when the Ducks were No. 1.

Now, to be fair, a lot of people lose to those teams.

That is not the problem.

The problem is whether Illinois can become more competitive in those games while still beating the teams it should beat.

That is how you go from nice season to special season.

QUARTERBACK:

This is the biggest change.

Luke Altmyer is gone, and that is not small.

Altmyer was not perfect, but he gave Illinois exactly what Bielema wanted at quarterback. He protected the football, made enough plays and kept the Illini out of disasters.

Over his final two seasons, Altmyer threw 44 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions.

That is a huge reason Illinois won 19 games.

Now the job goes to Katin Houser, the transfer from East Carolina. Houser is a senior quarterback has who one year of eligibility remaining after throwing for 6,438 career yards, 43 touchdowns and adding 15 rushing touchdowns across his first four college seasons.

I like this move.

Houser has played real football. He is not some total unknown stepping into the Big Ten and trying to figure everything out from scratch.

Last season at East Carolina, he completed 65.9% of his passes for 3,300 yards, 19 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also ran for nine touchdowns.

That is a good starting point.

He also played well against Power 4 competition last yaer. Against NC State, he threw for 366 yards and a touchdown. Against BYU, he threw for 285 yards, though he also had two interceptions.

But can he be productive without giving the ball away?

Because Illinois has won under Bielema by avoiding mistakes. If Houser gives Illinois the same kind of efficiency Altmyer gave them, the Illini can be good again.

If the interceptions creep up, that changes everything.

The running ability helps too. Houser is not just a statue. If he can give Illinois a little more quarterback run-game value than Altmyer did, that adds another layer.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense has some pieces, but there is a lot to sort out.

Ca’Lil Valentine is back at running back, and he is probably the first name to know. He ran 131 times for 614 yards and four touchdowns last season. He also caught 10 passes.

The interesting part is that Valentine was not really treated like a workhorse.

He only had 10-plus carries in four games.

That is not what you typically picture when you think of a Bret Bielema offense. You think of the old Wisconsin style. Big backs. Big offensive linemen. A run game that just keeps coming at you.

Illinois has not really had that kind of true bell-cow back lately.

Maybe Valentine becomes more of that this year.

He may need to.

Because when you are breaking in a new quarterback, the easiest way to help him is to run the football.

At receiver, Hudson Clement and Collin Dixon are back. Those are important pieces because Houser needs targets who already understand the offense. Illinois also added Alex Perry from FIU, and that is one of the more interesting transfer additions. Perry is listed by Illinois as a 6-foot-5 wide receiver coming in from FIU.

Perry gives Illinois size and production. He had 56 catches, more than 800 yards and nine touchdowns last season.

That is the kind of player who can change the passing game quickly if it translates.

Up front, Brandon Henderson is back, and Illinois added Jake Renfro from Wisconsin and Christian Martin from Colorado State.

Renfro is especially interesting because he has real experience and was previously an all-conference type player at Cincinnati before injuries complicated things.

So the offense has answers.

But it is not automatic.

New quarterback. New offensive line pieces. New receiver help. A running back who has to prove he can handle more.

There is enough here to be good.

The question is whether there is enough here to scare the top of the Big Ten.

DEFENSE

The defense is where things get really interesting to me.

Illinois brings back some experience in the secondary with Matthew Bailey, Juice Clarke and Tanner Heckel.

Clark was honorable mention All-Big Ten last year and had seven pass breakups despite missing the first four games.

That secondary experience matters because Illinois lost a lot of production elsewhere.

The Illini return only around 35% of their snaps, and the defense returns even less than the offense. That is a lot of turnover.

But the biggest defensive storyline is not a player.

It is Bobby Hauck.

Hauck is the new defensive coordinator, and I love this hire.

This is a guy who has won everywhere at the FCS level. Hauck had 151 victories, 13 playoff appearances, four national championship game appearances and eight conference titles during his head-coaching career. His defenses at Montana were built around an aggressive 3-3-5 scheme.

That is not some random assistant moving up the ladder.

That is a real head coach choosing to become a defensive coordinator because the current job of being a college football head coach is exhausting.

I think that matters.

Illinois needed some new energy on defense, and Hauck should bring that.

The Illini were not awful defensively last year. They allowed about 23.6 points per game on the full season, according to Illinois’ official stats.

But they also did not always feel like a defense that could control games against the best teams.

That is the next step.

If Hauck’s defense is aggressive, creates takeaways and lets the secondary play fast, Illinois could be better than people expect on that side of the ball.

But there is risk.

New coordinator. New system. Limited returning production.

This could take time.

SCHEDULE

I actually like this schedule for Illinois.

Not because it is easy. It is not easy.

But it is manageable in the right ways.

Illinois opens with three straight home games: UAB, Duke and Southern Illinois. The Illini then go to Ohio State on Sept. 26 for the first road game of the season.

That might be the toughest road game in the country, depending on how the Buckeyes look. Illinois is going to learn a lot about itself there.

After that, Illinois gets Purdue at home, goes to Michigan State, gets a bye, then hosts Oregon.

That Oregon game is fascinating.

If you are going to play Oregon, you would love to get the Ducks at home and after a bye. That is about as good of a setup as Illinois could ask for.

Then the Illini go to Maryland, host Nebraska on a Friday night, go to UCLA on another Friday night, host Iowa, and finish at Northwestern.

The best thing about the schedule?

No back-to-back road games.

Illinois does have to go to Ohio State. It does have to make the long trip to UCLA. It does have to play Oregon.

But the road games outside Ohio State are Michigan State, Maryland, UCLA and Northwestern.

Illinois fans are going to expect to win a lot of those.

The Illini also avoid Indiana, which matters after what happened last year.

So yes, the schedule has two monster games with Ohio State and Oregon.

But it also gives Illinois a path to another strong season if it handles the games it should handle.

OUTLOOK

I understand why Illinois fans are excited.

They should be.

This program is in a better place than it has been in a long time. Bielema has made Illinois steady. The Illini have won 19 games in two years. They have a quarterback in Katin Houser who has real production. They have a running back in Ca’Lil Valentine who could take on a bigger role. They have some receiver options. They have a fascinating defensive coordinator in Bobby Hauck.

And the schedule is not bad.

But I also think there are fair questions.

Can Houser protect the ball like Altmyer did?

Can the run game become more physical and consistent?

Can the offensive line come together with new pieces?

Can Hauck’s defense work quickly enough in the Big Ten?

Can Illinois avoid the weird losses to teams like Minnesota, Washington or Wisconsin that have kept the Illini from being more than just solid?

That is the difference.

Illinois has already proven it can be good.

Now it has to prove it can be more than good.

The best-case scenario is that Houser gives Illinois efficient quarterback play, Valentine becomes a real lead back, Perry adds size and explosiveness at receiver, and Hauck’s defense creates more disruption right away.

If that happens, Illinois can win nine or 10 games again.

The worst-case scenario is that Houser throws too many interceptions, the offense misses Altmyer’s steadiness, the defense takes time under Hauck, and the Ohio State-Oregon portion of the schedule exposes the gap between Illinois and the top of the Big Ten.

Bielema has built a program that no longer feels like a one-year fluke. Illinois is not just hoping to be relevant anymore.

Now the Illini are trying to prove they can stay relevant.

And maybe, if Houser hits and Hauck’s defense clicks, they can become something more than that.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.