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Saturday, 2026-09-12 | 6:30 PM CT | Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA | NBC
DraftKings snapshot: IOWA -14.5 | Over/under: 41.5 [S1]

What’s at stake

Iowa State has won three of the last four Cy-Hawk games, including a 16-13 win last season, but Iowa opened 2026 with a far louder performance. The Hawkeyes gained 507 yards and shut out Northern Illinois 40-0; the Cyclones beat Southeast Missouri 38-10 while gaining only 303. [S2/S3/S4]

This is just the third Cy-Hawk game played in prime time at Iowa City. A third straight win at Kinnick would strengthen the first season of Jimmy Rogers’ Iowa State rebuild; Iowa can reclaim the trophy while validating an opener that looked much more complete than last year’s offense. [S4/S5]

Three things to know

1. Iowa’s run game was the biggest Week 1 change: The Hawkeyes rushed for 289 yards at 7.6 per carry, led by Kamari Moulton’s 183 yards and two touchdowns. Iowa State allowed Southeast Missouri only 67 rushing yards, so this is the clearest strength-on-strength matchup in the game. [S2/S3]
2. The Cyclones’ score was bigger than their offense: Iowa State scored 38 points but gained 303 yards and had only 15 first downs. Three takeaways helped create the separation. Against an Iowa defense that allowed 120 total yards, the Cyclones may have to drive the long field instead of waiting for another mistake. [S2/S3]
3. Iowa finally showed balance: The Hawkeyes paired their 289 rushing yards with 218 passing yards, while Northern Illinois managed only seven rushing yards. Iowa State’s best chance is to force Hank Brown and/or Jeremy Hecklinski into obvious passing situations before the run game controls the night. [S2/S3]

Stat comparison

Metric	Iowa State 2026	Iowa 2026	Iowa State 2025 rank	Iowa 2025 rank
Points per game	38.0 (No. 48*)	40.0 (No. 46*)	No. 81	No. 41
Points allowed per game	10.0 (No. 38*)	0.0 (No. 1*)	No. 24	No. 11
Yards per game	303.0 (No. 107*)	507.0 (No. 38*)	No. 60	No. 119
Yards allowed per game	209.0 (No. 31*)	120.0 (No. 8*)	No. 54	No. 9
Passing yards per game	195.0 (No. 90*)	218.0 (No. 75*)	No. 74	No. 129
Passing yards allowed per game	142.0 (No. 44*)	113.0 (No. 27*)	No. 64	No. 10
Turnover margin	+2 (No. 12*)	+1 (No. 30*)	No. 44	No. 67

*The 2026 ranking is based on the 131 teams who had played by Saturday night. We did not wait on the Sunday and Monday college football games to publish the majority of our previews. [S8]

Players to watch

• Iowa State — Jaylen Raynor: He threw for 184 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in his Iowa State debut. The rivalry will demand more consistency than an 8-for-16 opener. [S2/S6]
• Iowa — Kamari Moulton: He rushed 11 times for 183 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 16.6 yards per carry. [S3/S7]

HE SAID IT

• Iowa State coach Jimmy Rogers: “We didn’t tackle live all camp. I was nervous about that.” Iowa immediately presents the stress test: the Hawkeyes rushed for 289 yards against Northern Illinois, and Kamari Moulton gained 183 on 11 carries. Source
• Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz: “I thought both quarterbacks were productive. It was a good first start for both of them.” The Hawkeyes enter the Cy-Hawk rivalry without a publicly settled one-quarterback answer, giving Iowa State two different passers to prepare for. Source

Looking for a prediction?

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Sources

• S1: ESPN Iowa State–Iowa game page and DraftKings feed
• S2: ESPN Southeast Missouri–Iowa State final box score
• S3: ESPN Northern Illinois–Iowa final box score
• S4: Iowa State official 2026 schedule announcement and current Cy-Hawk series notes
• S5: Iowa official kickoff announcement and prime-time history
• S6: Iowa State official 2026 football roster
• S7: Iowa official 2026 football roster
• S8: SportsDataverse/ESPN 2025 team-summary source

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Saturday, 2026-09-12 | 9:15 PM CT | Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT | ESPN
DraftKings snapshot: UTAH -11.5 | Over/under: 56.5 [S1]

What’s at stake

Arkansas and Utah meet for the first time, and both programs are starting new coaching eras. Ryan Silverfield’s Razorbacks beat North Alabama 31-14; Morgan Scalley’s Utes opened with 633 yards in a 66-14 rout of Idaho. Week 2 is the first Power Four test for either staff. [S2/S3/S4/S5]

Utah is trying to protect a playoff résumé at home. Arkansas makes its first trip to Utah and gets an early chance to change the conversation after a two-win 2025 season. [S4/S6/S9]

Three things to know

1. Utah’s run game meets the one thing Arkansas clearly stopped: Utah rushed for 364 yards at 7.4 per carry. Arkansas held North Alabama to 40 rushing yards and 153 total, so this is a real test of whether the Razorbacks’ front can survive a massive jump in size and speed. [S2/S3]
2. Arkansas cannot waste another possession: The Razorbacks controlled the ball for 41:25 and ran 84 plays, but lost two fumbles and threw an interception. Utah did not turn it over and forced two. That three-possession difference would be far more damaging against an offense that just scored 66. [S2/S3]
3. The rushing efficiency gap was enormous: Arkansas ran 49 times for 148 yards—3.0 per carry. Utah also had 49 rushing attempts but gained 364. The Razorbacks need more from their backs so KJ Jackson is not asked to carry the offense in his first road start. [S2/S3]

Stat comparison

Metric	Arkansas 2026	Utah 2026	Arkansas 2025 rank	Utah 2025 rank
Points per game	31.0 (No. 69*)	66.0 (No. 6*)	No. 32	No. 6
Points allowed per game	14.0 (No. 54*)	14.0 (No. 54*)	No. 125	No. 15
Yards per game	415.0 (No. 59*)	633.0 (No. 13*)	No. 13	No. 4
Yards allowed per game	153.0 (No. 15*)	225.0 (No. 39*)	No. 122	No. 59
Passing yards per game	267.0 (No. 50*)	269.0 (No. 48*)	No. 30	No. 82
Passing yards allowed per game	113.0 (No. 27*)	119.0 (No. 31*)	No. 104	No. 17
Turnover margin	-2 (No. 107*)	+2 (No. 12*)	No. 128	No. 30

*The 2026 ranking is based on the 131 teams who had played by Saturday night. We did not wait on the Sunday and Monday college football games to publish the majority of our previews. [S9]

Players to watch

• Arkansas — KJ Jackson: He completed 24 of 35 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns in his Arkansas debut, although he also threw one interception. [S2/S7]
• Utah — Wayshawn Parker: He scored a career-high three touchdowns against Idaho, giving Utah a finishing threat to match a rushing attack that piled up 364 yards. [S3/S6]

Looking for a prediction?

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Sources

• S1: ESPN Arkansas–Utah game page and DraftKings feed
• S2: ESPN North Alabama–Arkansas final box score
• S3: ESPN Idaho–Utah final box score
• S4: Arkansas official announcement of the first football series with Utah
• S5: Utah official 2026 football media center
• S6: Utah official 66-14 Idaho recap
• S7: Arkansas official 2026 football roster
• S8: Utah official 2026 football roster
• S9: SportsDataverse/ESPN 2025 team-summary source

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Saturday, 2026-09-12 | 1:00 PM CT | Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN | ESPN+
DraftKings snapshot: not yet posted in the ESPN/DraftKings feed | Over/under: not yet posted [S1]

What’s at stake

Ball State’s first useful measuring stick comes in its home opener. A 56-3 loss at No. 1 Ohio State revealed almost nothing about how the Cardinals compare with a more manageable opponent, while Stony Brook has already played two one-score games and just completed a 19-point fourth-quarter comeback. [S2/S4/S7]

This is the first meeting between the programs. Stony Brook can earn an FBS win; Ball State can avoid letting an expected opening loss turn into an 0-2 start. [S1/S7]

Three things to know

1. Stony Brook brings a real passing threat: Quinn Boyd has completed 49 of 76 passes for 621 yards, five touchdowns and one interception through two games. Seth Sweitzer has 17 catches for 238 yards and two scores. Ohio State threw for 434 yards against Ball State, but this matchup will say much more about whether the Cardinals can handle a passing game closer to their own talent level. [S2/S3/S4/S8]
2. Ball State finally gets a chance to run a normal offense: The Cardinals gained 165 yards, rushed for 45 and converted 3 of 14 third downs against Ohio State. Stony Brook has allowed 439 yards and 36.5 points per game to two FCS opponents, so Ball State should have opportunities that simply did not exist in Columbus. [S3/S4]
3. Stony Brook keeps turning games into fourth-quarter chaos: The Seawolves erased an 18-point third-quarter deficit to tie Delaware State before losing late, then scored the final 19 points to beat Lindenwood 36-32. Ball State has to finish because Stony Brook has already shown twice that a double-digit lead is not safe. [S2/S3/S8]

Stat comparison

Metric	Stony Brook 2026	Ball State 2026	Stony Brook 2025 rank	Ball State 2025 rank
Points per game	35.0 (FCS; no FBS rank)	3.0 (No. 124*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 77
Points allowed per game	36.5 (FCS; no FBS rank)	56.0 (No. 126*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 93
Yards per game	429.0 (FCS; no FBS rank)	165.0 (No. 124*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 134
Yards allowed per game	439.0 (FCS; no FBS rank)	671.0 (No. 130*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 104
Passing yards per game	310.5 (FCS; no FBS rank)	120.0 (No. 114*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 130
Passing yards allowed per game	234.0 (FCS; no FBS rank)	434.0 (No. 130*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 83
Turnover margin	-2 (FCS; no FBS rank)	0 (No. 60*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 87

The 2026 ranking is based on the 131 teams who had played by Saturday night. We did not wait on the Sunday and Monday college football games to publish the majority of our previews. [S9]

Players to watch

• Stony Brook — Seth Sweitzer: The Merrimack transfer caught 12 passes for 157 yards and a touchdown against Lindenwood. He is listed on Stony Brook’s current roster and already has 17 catches in two games. [S2/S3/S6]
• Ball State — Brody Boehm: The Missouri transfer made a 54-yard field goal for Ball State’s only points at Ohio State. He is listed on the 2026 roster and gives the Cardinals a scoring option if drives stall again. [S4/S5]

Looking for a prediction?

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Sources

• S1: ESPN Stony Brook–Ball State game page
• S2: Stony Brook official 36-32 Lindenwood box score
• S3: Stony Brook official 2026 cumulative statistics
• S4: ESPN Ball State–Ohio State final box score
• S5: Ball State official 2026 football roster
• S6: Stony Brook official 2026 football roster
• S7: Ball State official 2026 schedule announcement and first-meeting note
• S8: ESPN Stony Brook–Delaware State final box score
• S9: SportsDataverse/ESPN 2025 team-summary source
• S10: Ball State official 2026 football media center

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Saturday, 2026-09-12 | 2:30 PM CT | Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH | ESPN+
DraftKings snapshot: not yet posted in the ESPN/DraftKings feed | Over/under: not yet posted [S1]

What’s at stake

Toledo’s 30-20 loss at Michigan State was more competitive than the final score looks: the Rockets briefly took a fourth-quarter lead. Central Connecticut’s opener went the other direction, a 59-20 loss at South Dakota in which the Blue Devils allowed 594 yards. Toledo’s home opener is a get-right opportunity; Central Connecticut is trying to show that one ugly day did not erase the form that produced back-to-back NEC championships. [S2/S3/S4/S5/S6]

Three things to know

1. Toledo has to stay on the field: Michigan State ran 83 plays and held the ball for 43:16; Toledo ran only 41 plays and possessed it for 16:44. The Rockets converted only one of eight third downs. Central Connecticut also struggled on third down at 4 of 14, so whichever offense avoids another string of empty drives can control the game. [S4/S6]
2. Three explosive plays kept Toledo alive: John Alan Richter hit Adjatay Dabbs for a 60-yard touchdown, the pair connected again from six yards, and Connor Walendzak broke a 71-yard touchdown run that gave Toledo a 20-19 lead. The rest of the offense produced only 142 yards, so Toledo needs more routine gains instead of waiting for another home run. [S4/S6]
3. Central Connecticut’s defense gets no soft landing: South Dakota gained 327 yards through the air and 267 on the ground against the Blue Devils. Toledo averaged 33.2 points in 2025, so even after a 20-point opener, the Rockets have a recent offensive baseline capable of attacking both parts of that defense. [S2/S3/S7]

Stat comparison

Metric	C Connecticut 2026	Toledo 2026	C Connecticut 2025 rank	Toledo 2025 rank
Points per game	20.0 (FCS; no FBS rank)	20.0 (No. 93*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 29
Points allowed per game	59.0 (FCS; no FBS rank)	30.0 (No. 100*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 4
Yards per game	250.0 (FCS; no FBS rank)	273.0 (No. 116*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 34
Yards allowed per game	594.0 (FCS; no FBS rank)	397.0 (No. 95*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 2
Passing yards per game	115.0 (FCS; no FBS rank)	196.0 (No. 89*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 57
Passing yards allowed per game	327.0 (FCS; no FBS rank)	247.0 (No. 98*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 5
Turnover margin	+1 (FCS; no FBS rank)	-1 (No. 86*)	FCS — not ranked with FBS	No. 30

*The 2026 ranking is based on the 131 teams who had played by Saturday night. We did not wait on the Sunday and Monday college football games to publish the majority of our previews. [S7]

Players to watch

• Central Connecticut — Michael Trovarelli: He caught five passes for 45 yards and Central Connecticut’s only passing touchdown. In a game where the Blue Devils used two quarterbacks, he was their most reliable target. [S3/S5]
• Toledo — Adjatay Dabbs: Four catches produced 101 yards and caught both Toledo touchdown passes, including a 60-yarder. He accounted for more than half of the Rockets’ passing yards. [S4/S6]

Looking for a prediction?

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Sources

• S1: ESPN Central Connecticut–Toledo game page
• S2: South Dakota official Central Connecticut preview
• S3: South Dakota official 59-20 Central Connecticut recap
• S4: Toledo official Michigan State final box score
• S5: ESPN Central Connecticut–South Dakota final box score
• S6: ESPN Toledo–Michigan State final box score
• S7: SportsDataverse/ESPN 2025 team-summary source

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 9:00 PM CT
Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
TV: CW
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): UNLV -3
Over/under: 58.5

The setup

The Island Showdown Trophy game is being played for an 18th straight season, Hawai’i’s longest active run against one opponent. The full series is nearly a coin flip: Hawai’i leads 19-16 after 35 meetings.

What I’m watching

Both teams have current film now. UNLV lost 27-21 to Memphis in Week 0, with Jackson Arnold completing 25 of 37 for 291 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. Hawai’i lost 37-27 to Stanford in Week 0, with Micah Alejado completing 30 of 50 for 269 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. The clearest early pressure point is Hawai’i’s offense after it produced 322 yards; this game will show whether that Week 0 result was opponent-driven or a real warning.

Personnel snapshot

• Continuity is nearly even: UNLV’s Dan Mullen is in Year 2; Hawai’i’s Timmy Chang is in Year 5. The returning-starter totals are close—UNLV has 7 (3 offense, 4 defense), while Hawai’i has 7 (4 offense, 3 defense). Both teams kept their head coach and offensive coordinator, making last year’s styles more useful than they are in most openers.
• The protection problem: UNLV brings back two starting offensive linemen, led by Austin Boyd and Will Thomas. Hawai’i produced 31 sacks last season and returns 3 defensive starters, including Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina and Jamih Otis. Protection is the personnel battle most likely to change the game.
• The pressure test: Jackson Arnold led UNLV’s passing in Week 0 (25 of 37 for 291 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT); Micah Alejado led Hawai’i’s passing in Week 0 (30 of 50 for 269 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT). The tougher first assignment belongs to Jackson Arnold: Hawai’i produced 31 sacks last season.

Three quick analysis points

• Third down sank UNLV in Week 0: UNLV converted only 3 of 15 third downs in its opener (20%). That is the first problem it has to fix.
• The scoring trend: This rivalry has a serious home-field tax: the home team won 14 of the last 17 meetings, and Hawai’i is 13-4 against UNLV in Honolulu. The Warriors are also 8-1 in their last nine at Ching Complex, averaging 31.8 points.
• The roster reset: This is a Las Vegas high-school reunion wearing Hawai’i uniforms. Fifteen Warriors attended Bishop Gorman – the most players from one high school on any FBS roster – and all four Hawai’i captains are Bishop Gorman graduates from Las Vegas.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 9:00 PM CT
Location: Mountain America Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): ASU -41.5
Over/under: 52.5

The setup

This is Arizona State’s first game against an HBCU and its first FCS opponent from outside the Big Sky since Division I split in 1978. Morgan State is also walking into 26 straight ASU home-opener wins – the nation’s second-longest active streak – and 23 straight Opening Day wins in this stadium.

What I’m watching

Morgan St beat North Carolina A&T 17-7 in Week 0, with Cameron Edge completing 13 of 19 for 167 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. The Week 1 opponent changes the degree of difficulty, but 276 yards—167 passing and 109 rushing—gives us a real 2026 starting point instead of another projection.

Personnel snapshot

• The FBS roster is rebuilding too: Morgan St’s Damon Wilson is in Year 5; Arizona St’s Kenny Dillingham is in Year 4. Arizona St returns 3 starters—1 on offense and 2 on defense.
• The protection problem: Arizona St brings back one starting offensive lineman, led by Wade Helton. Morgan St produced 34 sacks last season.
• Familiarity versus a new offense: Cameron Edge led Morgan St’s passing in Week 0 (13 of 19 for 167 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT); Cutter Boley is the projected starter for Arizona St (2,160 yards, 15 TD and 12 INT at Kentucky in 2025).

Three quick analysis points

• The recent trend: Morgan State’s 17-7 Week 0 win was a master class in winning ugly: the Bears trailed through three quarters, had 12 first downs to North Carolina A&T’s 19, lost total yardage 328-276 and held the ball only 24:19. As a 41.5-point underdog, that survive-now-and-steal-it-late script is far more realistic than trading drives with ASU.
• The scoring trend: Morgan State’s 68-yard touchdown pass accounted for 41% of Cameron Edge’s 167 passing yards in the opener. Arizona State has allowed only 28 plays of 50-plus yards in 94 games since 2018, tied for fourth-fewest in the FBS versus an average of 51.3, so Morgan’s biggest Week 0 shortcut runs into ASU’s defining defensive strength.
• The quarterback follow-up: Cameron Edge handled 19 pass attempts for Morgan St in Week 0. He completed 13 of 19 for 167 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Arizona St returns 2 defensive starters and ranked No. 22 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays, making pressure a proven strength.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 8:30 PM CT
Location: Snapdragon Stadium
TV: USA Net
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): SDSU -40.5
Over/under: 57.5

The setup

Portland State led No. 6 UC Davis 21-0 at halftime and outgained it 257-84, then lost 31-24 after a 31-3 second half. The Vikings already lived an entire season’s worth of mood swings in Week 0.

What I’m watching

Portland St lost 31-24 to UC Davis in Week 0, with Tyrese Smith completing 23 of 36 for 268 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. The Week 1 opponent changes the degree of difficulty, but 357 yards—268 passing and 89 rushing—gives us a real 2026 starting point instead of another projection.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: Portland St’s Chris Fisk is in Year 1; San Diego St’s Sean Lewis is in Year 3. San Diego St returns 10 starters—7 on offense and 3 on defense. San Diego St also kept its head coach and offensive coordinator, so its 2025 offensive habits should carry more weight in this matchup.
• The depth advantage has to show: San Diego St should have the deeper roster, but Portland St’s path is to force the new or lightly used starters into an uncomfortable first half. With 7 offensive starters back, San Diego St should be able to settle the game without exposing every new defensive piece.
• The pressure test: Tyrese Smith led Portland St’s passing in Week 0 (23 of 36 for 268 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT); Jayden Denegal returns as San Diego St’s starter (1,807 yards, 9 TD and 8 INT in 2025). The tougher first assignment belongs to Tyrese Smith: San Diego St produced 32 sacks last season.

Three quick analysis points

• The quarterback angle: Tyrese Smith produced 301 total yards in his first start: 268 passing, 33 rushing and two rushing touchdowns. San Diego State’s opener begins against a quarterback who already has a full game’s rhythm.
• The scoring trend: San Diego State allowed only 15.4 points and 293.7 yards per game last year, ranking top-six nationally in scoring defense, pass defense and red-zone defense. The catch: only two defensive starters return.
• The running-game test: Aztecs running back Lucky Sutton rushed for 1,297 yards, 13th nationally. Portland State allowed only 87 rushing yards to UC Davis, making the ground game a direct test of whether that Week 0 front is real.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 8:30 PM CT
Location: Casino Del Sol Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): ARIZ -31.5
Over/under: 56.5

The setup

Northern Arizona trailed Eastern Washington 24-3, then scored 24 unanswered points and won 34-27, snapping a 20-game losing streak when behind at halftime. Arizona cannot assume an early lead ends this game; NAU just erased its worst-case script one week ago.

What I’m watching

N Arizona beat Eastern Washington 34-27 in Week 0, with Ty Pennington completing 15 of 27 for 164 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. N Arizona already established the run, finishing with 201 rushing yards. Arizona allowed 143.2 rushing yards per game in 2025, which makes this a more meaningful follow-up test.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: N Arizona’s Brian Wright is in Year 3; Arizona’s Brent Brennan is in Year 3. Arizona returns 10 starters—6 on offense and 4 on defense.
• Where points should be available: Arizona averaged 31.5 points per game last season; N Arizona allowed 30.8. If those identities survive the roster changes, this is where the favorite should create separation.
• The quarterback matchup: Ty Pennington led N Arizona’s passing in Week 0 (15 of 27 for 164 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT); Noah Fifita returns as Arizona’s starter (2,963 yards, 26 TD and 5 INT in 2025). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• The youth movement: True freshman Lindsey Graves sparked that comeback with a 100-yard kickoff-return touchdown and now leads the FCS at 58.0 yards per return. For an FCS underdog, that is the cleanest possible shortcut around Arizona’s talent advantage: skip the offense and erase the whole field.
• The quarterback angle: Northern Arizona rushed for 201 yards in Week 0, with Quran Gossett gaining 103 and quarterback Ty Pennington adding 61. Arizona allowed 143.2 rushing yards per game last season, so NAU’s best way to protect itself from Noah Fifita is to keep moving the chains on the ground.
• The turnover test: Arizona finished first nationally in pass-efficiency defense, allowed 165.3 passing yards per game and intercepted 22 passes; Pennington threw for 164 yards with one interception in the opener. The single biggest mismatch is NAU’s ordinary passing debut against the Wildcats’ elite 2025 ball-hawking résumé.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 7:00 PM CT
Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): BYU -50.5
Over/under: 54.5

The setup

BYU is 20-0 against FCS opponents with an average score of 48.5-9.4. Utah Tech still owns the odd footnote: its 26 points in 2022 are the most BYU has ever allowed to an FCS team.

What I’m watching

Utah Tech lost 54-0 to Montana State in Week 0, with CJ Tiller and Bronson Barben combining to complete 19 of 33 for 169 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT. The early warning is only 227 total yards. BYU allowed 332.4 yards per game last season, so this is a useful chance to see whether the opener was a one-game problem.

Personnel snapshot

• A veteran FBS core: Utah Tech’s Lance Anderson is in Year 3; BYU’s Kalani Sitake is in Year 11. BYU returns 13 starters—5 on offense and 8 on defense.
• How quickly does the favorite take over: BYU averaged 33.4 points per game last season. Against Utah Tech, the personnel test is whether that advantage shows up immediately or the favorite lets a heavy underdog hang around. The offense returns 5 starters.
• The pressure test: Utah Tech used CJ Tiller and Bronson Barben at quarterback in Week 0 (19 of 33 for 169 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT); Bear Bachmeier returns as BYU’s starter (2,708 yards, 14 TD and 6 INT in 2025). The tougher first assignment belongs to CJ Tiller / Bronson Barben: BYU produced 30 sacks last season.

Three quick analysis points

• Utah Tech barely moved the ball in Week 0: Utah Tech finished its opener with only 227 total yards—169 passing and 58 rushing. That is the clearest early warning entering this matchup.
• The recent trend: Utah Tech opened with a 54-0 loss to No. 1 FCS Montana State. Its reward is a trip to No. 14 BYU, which went 12-2 last year – the schedule somehow found a steeper hill after a 54-point loss.
• The quarterback angle: BYU returns quarterback Bear Bachmeier after 3,033 passing yards, 527 rushing yards and 26 total touchdowns, plus 1,305-yard back LJ Martin. The Cougars last returned a 3,000-yard passer and 1,000-yard rusher together in 2009.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 8:00 PM CT
Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): NMSU -28.5
Over/under: 51.5

The setup

This first meeting comes with matching Week 0 bruises: New Mexico State lost 34-17 at Florida State, while Mercyhurst lost 43-10 at Youngstown State. Somebody's 0 has to go, but neither team arrives pretending the opener went well.

What I’m watching

Both teams have current film now. Mercyhurst lost 43-10 to Youngstown State in Week 0, with Alex Gevaudan completing 18 of 31 for 212 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. New Mexico St lost 34-17 to Florida State in Week 0, with Trey Hedden completing 26 of 42 for 272 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. The first question is whether Mercyhurst can clean up its 2 turnovers; that is a more immediate concern than any 2025 ranking.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: Mercyhurst's Thomas Sydeski is in Year 1; New Mexico St's Tony Sanchez is in Year 3. New Mexico St returns 9 starters—3 on offense and 6 on defense. New Mexico St also kept its head coach and offensive coordinator, so its 2025 offensive habits should carry more weight in this matchup.
• The favorite's run-game test: New Mexico St averaged only 77.3 rushing yards per game last season. Against Mercyhurst, winning is expected; showing a more dependable run game would be the more useful result. The offense brings back 3 starters.
• The quarterback matchup: Alex Gevaudan led Mercyhurst's passing in Week 0 (18 of 31 for 212 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT); Trey Hedden led New Mexico St's passing in Week 0 (26 of 42 for 272 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• The quarterback angle: Trey Hedden threw for 272 yards and two touchdowns at Florida State, the most yards by an Aggies quarterback in a season opener since 2017. His top two receivers combined for 174 yards, the best two-man total anywhere in Week 0.
• The roster reset: The Aggies ran for only 47 yards at Florida State. That is jarring because transfer James Jones averaged 9.8 yards per carry at Delaware State last year; he alone had six 100-yard games, while New Mexico State's entire team reached 100 only twice.
• The turnover test: New Mexico State has forced a turnover in 17 straight games and intercepted a pass in 13 of them. For an offense trying to recover from a 33-point Week 0 loss, one bad throw can become the Aggies' easiest touchdown setup.

How the game is decided

Both teams have already shown their first strengths and first problems. The winner will be the one that fixes its Week 0 weakness without abandoning what worked; turnovers and failed third downs will reveal which staff made the better one-week adjustment.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.