Author: uthinkuknowsports

Is NC State THE sleeper team in the ACC?

I kind of think it might be.

The Wolfpack went 8-5 last season, finished 4-4 in the ACC, bring back their quarterback, have an established head coach, added offensive help in the transfer portal, and somehow avoided both Miami and SMU on the schedule.

That matters.

Because after Miami, the ACC feels pretty open. Somebody is going to get into that ACC Championship Game with a chance to either knock off Miami or take advantage if the Hurricanes stumble.

And NC State is one of those teams that feels like it is always hanging around.

Not always elite. Not always flashy. But annoying. Tough. Competitive. The kind of team nobody really wants to play.

Now the question is whether Dave Doeren can finally get the Wolfpack over the hump.

HEAD COACH:

• Dave Doeren, entering year 14 at NC State
• Doeren is 95-70 with the Wolfpack.
• NC State went 8-5 last season and 4-4 in the ACC.
• The Wolfpack have averaged eight wins per year over the last six seasons.
• NC State has never won 10 games under Doeren.

NC State feels like one of those programs where you can almost guess the record before the season starts.

Seven and five. Eight and five. Maybe nine wins if things break right.

That is not meant as an insult. It is actually pretty hard to be that steady for that long. Doeren has kept NC State respectable for more than a decade, and the Wolfpack are rarely an easy out.

But there is also a ceiling question.

At some point, if you are NC State, you want more than respectable. You want that season where everything finally clicks. You want the year where you are not just bothering the top teams in the ACC but actually becoming one of them.

This could be that kind of opportunity.

The ACC does not have the old version of Clemson sitting on top of it. Miami looks like the clear favorite, but behind the Hurricanes, there is room.

Louisville has quarterback questions. Duke has quarterback questions. Georgia Tech has quarterback questions. Florida State is trying to get off the mat. Clemson is trying to prove it is still Clemson.

So why not NC State?

The Wolfpack have the quarterback.

That gives them a chance.

QUARTERBACK:

This is where the optimism starts.

CJ Bailey is back, and that is the biggest reason to believe NC State can make noise.

Bailey threw for more than 3,000 yards last season with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also ran for 215 yards and six touchdowns, so he can move when things break down.

If the play is not perfect, he can create. If the pass rush gets home, he can escape. If NC State needs him to pick up a first down with his legs, he can do that.

But the next step is obvious.

Bailey has to play better against the best teams.

Against Notre Dame and Miami last year, he went 17-of-30 in both games. That sounds fine on the surface. It is not like he was completely lost.

The problem is what came with it.

In those two games, Bailey had one touchdown and five interceptions.

That cannot happen if NC State wants to become a real ACC contender.

And yes, a lot of quarterbacks struggled against Notre Dame and Miami. Those were two of the best teams in the country. But that is kind of the point. If NC State wants to be in that conversation, Bailey has to be good against those teams, not just against the middle of the schedule.

The other thing that jumps off the page is the home-road split.

Bailey threw 16 touchdowns and one interception at home.

On the road, he threw nine touchdowns and eight interceptions.

If NC State is going to take the next step, Bailey has to travel better. He cannot be one quarterback in Raleigh and another quarterback away from home.

The good news is that Bailey has one trait that really stands out.

He is an elite deep-ball passer.

Bailey completed 51% of his throws of 20-plus air yards last season, with 11 touchdowns and only one interception. That was the 11th-best deep-ball completion percentage nationally.

That is big-time stuff.

This was not dink-and-dunk yardage. These were throws that traveled down the field. If Bailey can keep hitting explosive passes, NC State has a path to being much more dangerous offensively.

But the equation is pretty simple.

If Bailey protects the ball on the road and against top teams, NC State can be a problem.

If he repeats the Miami/Notre Dame version too often, the Wolfpack probably stay in that familiar eight-win range.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense has enough pieces to be interesting.

But there are some real questions too.

The biggest loss is Hollywood Smothers, who transferred to Texas. Smothers was probably NC State’s best playmaker outside of Bailey, and he became one of the biggest running back names in the transfer portal.

You do not just shrug that off.

But there is some context.

Smothers was not exactly getting 25 carries every week late in the season. He only had one game with more than 12 carries in October and November, and that came against Florida State.

So while losing him hurts, NC State did have other backs involved.

Duke Scott is probably the name to know now. He had 106 carries for almost 600 yards and four touchdowns last season. If he becomes the starting back, he has enough experience to make the transition less scary.

Still, the run game has to improve.

NC State ranked 83rd nationally in rushing yards per game last season. That is not good enough, especially if the goal is to take pressure off Bailey.

If the Wolfpack can run the ball, everything opens up.

Bailey gets better looks. The deep shots become more dangerous. The offense is not asking him to win every game by himself.

The offensive line should help.

NC State brings back Teague Anderson, Kamen Smith and Spike Sowells up front. The Wolfpack also added offensive line help in transfers from Miami and East Carolina.

That is important because this offense probably needs to be more balanced.

At receiver, Keenan Jackson is back. He has 40 career catches, so there is at least some experience there.

The transfer to watch is Victor Snow from Buffalo. He caught 62 passes for 815 yards and eight touchdowns last season. He also had five catches for 67 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota, so he has at least shown he can make plays against a power-conference opponent.

That does not automatically mean he becomes a star in the ACC.

But it gives Bailey another target.

NC State also added Joshisa Trader from Miami, who had 13 catches last season. That is another upside swing at receiver.

So the offense is not loaded with household names, but it has a quarterback, some offensive line experience, a possible lead back, and a couple of interesting receivers.

That is enough to work with.

The question is whether it is enough to win big.

DEFENSE

This is the side of the ball that has to change.

NC State was not good enough defensively last season.

The Wolfpack allowed more than 28 points per game and gave up well over 400 yards per game. That is not a championship-level formula.

You can survive some of that if Bailey is throwing touchdowns and the offense is rolling.

But if the offense hits a lull, that defense is not giving you enough margin for error.

And now there is turnover.

NC State returns only three defensive starters, and all of them are in the secondary: Assad Brown, Jackson Vick and Ronnie Royal.

That is a useful place to have experience, but there is also a big warning sign here.

NC State does not have any returning All-ACC players, not even honorable mention.

That does not mean the defense cannot improve. It just means the Wolfpack do not have many proven stars on that side of the ball.

The transfer portal has to help.

Raul Aguirre comes in from Miami. Dakhari Nelson comes in from Penn State. And Harvey Dyson arrives from Tulane after putting up eight sacks last season.

Dyson might be the most important one.

If NC State can generate more pressure, the whole defense looks different. Pressure helps the secondary. Pressure creates turnovers. Pressure gets the defense off the field.

And that is what NC State needs.

The Wolfpack do not have to become a top-10 defense overnight. But they cannot be outside the top 80 in major defensive categories again and expect to compete for the ACC.

If this team is going to surprise people, the defense has to stop being the thing that holds it back.

SCHEDULE

This is where the NC State case gets really interesting.

The schedule sets up pretty well.

It starts in a weird way, with Virginia in a non-conference game in Brazil.

And I still do not love that this is a non-conference game.

Last year, the Virginia-NC State non-conference matchup actually mattered in the ACC tiebreaker picture. In a league that ended with a five-way tie and sent Duke and Virginia to the title game, those kinds of scheduling quirks can matter.

Now they are doing it again.

Only this time, it is in Rio de Janeiro.

That is strange. That is a big trip. And both coaching staffs have to figure out how to handle something most college football coaches have never dealt with.

But at least there is no real travel advantage. Both teams have to go.

After that, NC State gets Richmond, goes to Vanderbilt, and hosts App State.

The Vanderbilt game is the only true road game before late October.

That is huge.

The Wolfpack host Louisville on Oct. 3, host Wake Forest on Oct. 10, then get a bye before the long trip to Stanford on Oct. 23.

That Stanford trip is the one big ACC travel spot. It is a Friday game, it is across the country, and it comes after the bye.

If you have to go to California, that is probably the way you want it to happen.

After Stanford, NC State hosts Cal, Duke and Syracuse.

Then the season ends with two road games: at Florida State and at North Carolina.

So look at the setup.

Before the final two weeks, NC State has only played two true road games: Vanderbilt and Stanford.

That is very manageable.

The Wolfpack also avoid Miami and SMU.

That is massive.

Miami is the clear favorite in the ACC. SMU should be right in that next group. Not playing either one gives NC State a real scheduling advantage.

Now, the schedule is not easy.

Louisville is dangerous. Duke is the defending ACC champion. Florida State is still Florida State. North Carolina is a rivalry game. Stanford is a long trip.

But compared to some other ACC teams, NC State should feel pretty good.

The schedule gives the Wolfpack a chance to be right in the mix entering the final two weeks.

Then they have to prove it on the road.

OUTLOOK

I am talking myself into NC State a little bit.

And that makes me nervous, because NC State has been this kind of team before.

You look at the roster. You look at the quarterback. You look at the schedule. You look at the experience on the staff. And you say, “This might be the year.”

Then the Wolfpack go 8-5.

That is the history you are fighting against here.

But there is a real case.

CJ Bailey is back. He throws a beautiful deep ball. The offensive line has experience. There are enough transfer pieces at receiver to give the passing game a chance. The schedule avoids Miami and SMU. The Wolfpack do not have many true road games until late.

That is the optimistic view.

The concern is pretty obvious too.

Bailey has to be better away from home. The run game has to replace Hollywood Smothers. The defense has to improve a lot. And NC State needs some of these transfers to be more than just names on a depth chart.

The best-case scenario is that Bailey becomes one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC, the deep passing game stays explosive, Duke Scott gives NC State a steady run game, Victor Snow becomes a go-to ACC receiver, and the defense improves enough to keep the Wolfpack in the conference race.

If that happens, NC State can be one of the surprise teams in the league.

The worst-case scenario is that Bailey still struggles in the biggest games, the run game misses Smothers, the defense remains too leaky, and NC State ends up right back where it usually is.

Seven or eight wins. Competitive, but not special.

NC State is dangerous.

I am not ready to pick the Wolfpack to win the ACC, but I absolutely think they can be in that next tier behind Miami.

And with this schedule, if Bailey takes the next step, NC State could still be playing meaningful ACC football deep into November.

That is the opportunity.

Now the Wolfpack have to do something they have not done under Dave Doeren.

Get over the hump.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

When North Carolina hired Bill Belichick, it was one of the strangest college football stories in years.

Some people thought it was genius.

Some people thought it was a publicity stunt.

Some people thought he would stay one year, realize college football is a totally different world now, and head back to the NFL to chase the all-time wins record.

Then came the off-field noise. The girlfriend storyline. The awkward interview. The headlines that had very little to do with football.

And while all of that got attention, the actual football part got ugly.

North Carolina went 4-8.

The Tar Heels were 2-8 against Power Four opponents, and the two wins came against Stanford and Syracuse. Stanford was bad. Syracuse was out of quarterbacks. Those two teams went a combined 7-17.

So forget the name on the headset for a second.

North Carolina was just not good.

Now the question is whether Belichick can make this look like a real build in Year 2.

HEAD COACH:

• Bill Belichick, entering year two at North Carolina
• UNC went 4-8 last season.
• North Carolina had a negative turnover margin.
• UNC averaged 6.8 penalties per game, ranking near the bottom nationally.

The weirdest part about last year was that North Carolina did not look like a Bill Belichick team.

If you hire Belichick, you may not expect the best talent in the ACC right away. You may not expect North Carolina to line up and out-athlete Miami, Clemson or some of the top teams in the league talent-wise.

But you do expect a few things.

You expect the team to be organized.

You expect it to avoid beating itself.

You expect fewer penalties.

You expect better situational football.

You expect the defense to be smart and annoying.

That did not happen enough.

North Carolina had a minus-0.5 turnover margin per game, which ranked 109th nationally. The Tar Heels averaged 6.8 penalties per game, which ranked 99th.

That is not what people pictured when Belichick walked into Chapel Hill.

To be fair, the defense did improve as the season went on. You could see that. The numbers got better. The team started looking more competent on that side of the ball.

But the offense was a mess.

And if the offense does not get fixed, it is hard to see how this team takes a big step forward.

QUARTERBACK:

This is where the season starts.

Gio Lopez is gone to Wake Forest, so North Carolina is choosing between Billy Edwards and Taron Dickens.

And it is a very interesting quarterback battle because the two options feel completely different.

Edwards is the safer, more experienced choice. He came from Wisconsin, but he barely played last year because of a PCL strain. He appeared in only two games and went 6-of-17 for 113 yards, with no touchdowns and no interceptions.

Before that, he spent three years at Maryland, where he threw for more than 3,000 career yards.

So there is experience there.

But I think we kind of know what Billy Edwards is. That is not meant as an insult. He can be a useful quarterback. He can manage a game. If North Carolina plays good defense and just needs a quarterback who does not give the ball away, maybe he is the right guy.

But is he going to carry an offense?

That feels like a stretch.

The number that stands out is how he handled pressure in his only full season. He completed just 41% of his passes under pressure, compared to 72% from a clean pocket, according to PFF.

That is a big difference.

And North Carolina may not have the kind of offense where everything is clean and easy.

Then there is Taron Dickens, the transfer from Western Carolina.

He is the more intriguing option.

He was not playing ACC defenses. He was not playing Power Four competition every week. But the production was wild.

Against Mercer, the best team Western Carolina played last year and the eventual SoCon champion, Dickens went 32-of-49 for 551 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception.

Seven touchdown passes against the best team on the schedule gets your attention.

He also once completed 46 straight passes in a game against Wofford.

That is ridiculous at any level.

So the choice is pretty clear.

Edwards probably gives you the higher floor.

Dickens gives you the more interesting ceiling.

And for a North Carolina offense that ranked near the bottom of the country last year, I understand why the higher ceiling should be tempting. Even if Dickens doesn’t win the job for the opener against TCU, you could see him taking the field early if Edwards struggles.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

North Carolina’s offense was bad last season.

Really bad.

The Tar Heels ranked 126th in points per game, averaging just 17 points. They were 125th in yards per game, at only 287 yards. They were 110th in red zone scoring.

That is brutal.

This is why Bobby Petrino matters.

Petrino is now the offensive coordinator, and whatever people think of him, the man can call offense. Arkansas had plenty of problems last year, but the offense was not the issue.

At North Carolina, Petrino has to bring life to a unit that had almost none.

The top returning pieces are Demon June at running back and Jordan Shipp at wide receiver.

June ran 84 times for 464 yards and two touchdowns last season. That is a decent starting point, but North Carolina needs more than decent. It needs a reliable run game that can protect whichever quarterback wins the job.

Shipp is the best proven offensive player.

He caught 60 passes for 677 yards and six touchdowns last year, despite playing in an offense that struggled to throw the ball consistently. He was an honorable mention All-ACC player.

If Petrino can get the passing game moving at all, Shipp should benefit.

North Carolina also added WR Trech Kekahuna from Wisconsin and Jordan Washington from Texas. Washington was a highly recruited tight end, but he had only seven catches last year with the Longhorns.

So there are some pieces.

But there is not enough proven production to just assume this offense is fixed.

That is why the quarterback decision matters so much.

If Edwards wins the job, this probably becomes a controlled, manage-the-game offense that tries to lean on June, Shipp and avoiding mistakes.

If Dickens wins the job, maybe North Carolina tries to unlock something more explosive.

Either way, Petrino was hired to solve the biggest problem on the team.

He does not have much time to ease into it.

DEFENSE

This is the side of the ball where North Carolina can actually talk itself into improvement.

UNC allowed 26 points per game, which ranked 70th. The Tar Heels gave up 349.4 yards per game, which ranked 41st.

That is not elite.

But compared to the offense, it looks pretty good.

And as the season went along, the defense did get better. Part of that was the schedule. Playing teams like Syracuse, Stanford and Wake Forest late helped the numbers. But it was also clear that North Carolina started to look more comfortable defensively.

The key returning names are defensive lineman Leroy Jackson and defensive backs Kelly Cost and Jaiden Patterson.

The biggest name, though, might be Melkart Abou-Jaoude.

He had 10.5 sacks last season, and if North Carolina is going to take a step forward, it needs that pass rush to be real again.

Because the defense cannot just be “better than the offense.”

It has to actually help win games.

Belichick’s reputation is defense. His entire football identity is built on taking away what an opponent does best and forcing teams to play left-handed.

That did not show up enough last year.

It has to show up this year.

North Carolina also brought in some transfer help, including Donovan Hoylette and Peyton Siler from Richmond, who were all-conference players. Siler had multiple interceptions last season.

Those are the kinds of additions that may not make national headlines, but they matter for a roster that needs more dependable players.

The defense does not have to become dominant overnight.

But it has to be good enough to keep North Carolina in games while the offense figures itself out.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is a weird mix.

The good news is North Carolina does not play Cal, Stanford or SMU.

In this version of the ACC, that matters.

No trip to the West Coast. No trip to Dallas. No long, strange travel spot where you are adjusting time zones and playing a team that slept in its own bed.

That is a win.

The bad news is the front half of the schedule looks rough.

North Carolina opens with TCU on a neutral field. Then it gets East Tennessee State, which should be a win. But after that, things get ugly fast.

The Tar Heels play at Clemson, host Notre Dame, go at Pitt, and then go at Duke.

That is a brutal first six.

And four of those first six games are away from home.

So even without the long ACC travel, North Carolina is not getting an easy runway into the season.

After that, the Tar Heels host Syracuse, then host Miami on Halloween.

That Miami game could get a lot of attention depending on how North Carolina looks by then. Miami might be the ACC favorite and maybe even a national title contender.

Then UNC goes to UConn, before finishing with Louisville, Virginia and NC State.

The closing stretch is more manageable than the start, but that only matters if the Tar Heels survive September and October.

The first six games could shape the entire season.

If North Carolina starts badly, the pressure and noise around Belichick will get loud fast.

OUTLOOK

I understand why some people still want to believe in this.

It is Bill Belichick.

It is Bobby Petrino running the offense.

There are a few intriguing transfers.

The defense improved late last year.

And maybe the roster had to be turned over after a 4-8 season.

But I also think we have to be honest.

North Carolina was not unlucky last year.

North Carolina was bad.

The Tar Heels were 126th in scoring, 125th in total offense, 110th in red zone scoring, 109th in turnover margin and 99th in penalties per game.

Those are not little problems.

Those are program problems.

The best-case scenario is that Petrino fixes the offense quickly, Belichick gets the defense playing more disciplined football, Edwards protects the ball or Dickens gives the offense a spark, and Shipp becomes one of the better receivers in the ACC.

If that happens, North Carolina can be much more competitive.

The worst-case scenario is that the quarterback battle never gets settled, the offense still cannot score, the penalties and turnovers continue, and the early schedule buries the Tar Heels before they ever get comfortable.

North Carolina should be better.

It would be hard not to be better offensively, bBut I need to see it before I buy it.

Belichick’s name makes this fascinating. Petrino’s offense makes it even more interesting. The quarterback decision gives it some real intrigue.

But at some point, this cannot just be a story about famous coaches.

North Carolina has to win football games.

And after Year 1, there is still a lot to prove in Chapel Hill.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

If you talk to Miami fans this offseason, they will tell you this is the year.

The Hurricanes just played for the national championship. They are 23-6 over the last two seasons. They are 35-19 under Mario Cristobal. They have not lost a game by more than a touchdown since Oct. 14, 2023. That is 36 straight games without getting blown out, the longest streak in the nation.

So this is not fake hype.

Miami has a real roster. Miami has a real coach. Miami has real momentum. And in a very wide-open ACC, the Hurricanes should absolutely be the favorite.

But here is the funny part, that seems to be a forgotten point in history. Miami did not win the ACC last year.

Duke did.

People are going to forget that because Miami went on a playoff run and made the national title game. But the Hurricanes did not even play in the ACC Championship Game. And now the quarterback who did win the ACC is in Coral Gables.

That is what makes this so fascinating.

Darian Mensah won the league at Duke.

Now he is trying to win the whole thing at Miami.

HEAD COACH:

• Mario Cristobal, entering another huge year at Miami
• Cristobal is 35-19 with the Hurricanes.
• Miami is 23-6 over the last two seasons.
• Miami went 13-3 last year and lost to Indiana in the national championship game.

I know people still like to argue about Mario Cristobal.

Some fans love him. Some fans still hold onto the old mistakes. Some people will not let go of the clock management stuff, like the unbelievable Georgia Tech loss a few years ago when Miami just had to take a knee. I understand all of that.

But at some point, the results matter.

Cristobal has built this thing in the way you would expect him to build it: line of scrimmage first, physicality first, recruiting first, talent first.

Last year, Miami had the No. 1 pass-blocking offensive line in the country by PFF. The Hurricanes also had the No. 1 pass-rush defense by PFF.

That is how you play for a national championship.

You can talk about quarterbacks, receivers, playmakers, scheme and all of that. And Miami has plenty of those things too. But when you control both lines of scrimmage, you have a chance to beat almost anybody.

Now the question is whether Miami can do it again after losing some major pieces up front.

Because the skill talent is ridiculous.

The line of scrimmage is where the season gets interesting.

QUARTERBACK:

This is the biggest storyline in the ACC.

Carson Beck is gone, and I think he was a little underrated in what he did for Miami last year.

Beck was not always flashy. And I think some people remember the Louisville game too much because that was the game that nearly wrecked Miami’s playoff hopes. But overall, Beck was exactly what Miami needed him to be.

He managed the game. He protected the ball. He let the offensive line, the run game and the defense carry weight. And when Miami needed him to go win a game — like the playoff win over Ole Miss — he got the job done.

But now Miami replaces him with Darian Mensah, and this offense may look different because of it.

Mensah threw for 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns at Duke. He had six 300-yard passing games. He won the ACC.

And the stat that jumps off the page is the deep passing.

Mensah threw 86 passes of 20-plus air yards last season, which was the most in the country.

Carson Beck played two more games than Mensah and threw 63 deep balls. So Mensah threw 23 more passes of 20-plus air yards while playing fewer games.

That tells you who he is.

He is not afraid to challenge defenses.

However, a little more context is important. Mensah completed only 37% of those deep throws, which was around average nationally. So we do not need to pretend every deep ball was a perfect strike.

But the willingness matters.

Miami is not bringing in a quarterback who wants to dink and dunk all day. Mensah is going to push the ball down the field. He is going to make safeties back up. He is going to give Miami’s receivers chances.

And that brings us to the other part of this move.

Cooper Barkate came with him.

Barkate caught 72 passes for 1,106 yards and seven touchdowns at Duke last season. He also had 27 targets on throws of 20-plus yards downfield.

So Miami did not just add a quarterback.

Miami added the quarterback and one of the receivers he already trusts.

That matters immediately.

If Mensah and Barkate already have timing, chemistry and confidence together, Miami does not have to spend the first month figuring everything out.

They already brought part of Duke’s ACC title offense with them.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

This is where Miami gets scary.

Because Barkate might not even be the best receiver on the team.

Malachi Toney is back, and he is electric.

Toney caught 109 passes last season for more than 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns. He also ran the ball 23 times for 113 yards and another touchdown.

That is not just a receiver. That is a weapon.

And I would imagine offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson spent the offseason thinking of even more ways to get him the football. Maybe more flea flickers.

Now add Barkate to that.

Now add Mark Fletcher at running back.

Fletcher ran 216 times for 1,192 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. He also caught 17 passes and scored a couple more touchdowns as a receiver.

So just look at the pieces.

Darian Mensah at quarterback.

Malachi Toney at receiver.

Cooper Barkate at receiver.

Mark Fletcher at running back.

That is why Miami fans are going to ask, “How is this not the preseason No. 1 team in the country?”

And I understand the argument.

The concern is not the skill talent.

The concern is the offensive line.

Miami only brings back one offensive lineman from last year’s dominant group: Matthew McCoy.

That is the part that should make people pause.

Last year’s Miami offense worked because the line was outstanding. Beck had time. Fletcher had lanes. Miami could control games. If this offensive line is merely good instead of elite, the whole thing changes a little.

Now, I trust Cristobal to figure out the offensive line more than I would trust most coaches. That is his background. That is what he cares about. That is what he recruits.

But replacing that much up front is still replacing that much up front.

And when you are trying to win a national championship, “probably fine” is not the same thing as proven.

DEFENSE

Miami’s defense should be nasty again.

The Hurricanes return seven starters on that side of the ball, and the secondary is especially interesting because so many pieces are back.

The names to know start with Ahmad Moten, who was a second-team All-ACC player. Mohamed Toure and Zechariah Poyser were honorable mention All-ACC players. Miami also brings back Justin Scott, O.J. Frederique, Xavier Lucas and Ethan O’Connor.

That is a lot of experience.

And when you already had one of the best defenses in the country, bringing back that much experience is a big deal.

The question is whether Miami can keep the pass rush at the same level.

The Hurricanes have to replace Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, and that is not easy.

Those are the kinds of players who change games.

Last year, Miami’s pass rush was a major reason the Hurricanes were so good. They did not need to get cute. They could win up front. They could speed up quarterbacks. They could make offenses uncomfortable.

That has to continue.

Because if the pass rush drops off, the defense can still be good, but maybe it is not quite as terrifying.

Miami also only lost 18 scholarship players, which sounds like a lot if you are thinking about college football from 15 years ago. But in the modern NIL and transfer portal world, that is actually pretty manageable.

But this is not a team starting over.

This is a team reloading in specific spots.

And if the defensive front holds up, Miami is going to be a problem again.

SCHEDULE

This is one of the most interesting parts of Miami’s season.

Last year, one of the wildest things about Miami’s schedule was that the Hurricanes did not leave the state of Florida until November.

That is almost impossible to believe.

They played at Florida State, but that is still in Florida. Florida came to them. Miami was able to build momentum without much travel, and that absolutely helped.

This year is different.

I am not saying the schedule is harder. I actually think it is very manageable.

But the travel dynamic is different.

Miami opens at Stanford on Sept. 4, which is about as far as you can go in the continental United States from Miami.

The good news is that the Stanford game comes in Week 1. If you have to make that trip, that is probably when you want to make it. Miami is not coming off a Saturday game and turning around for a Friday night road trip. The Hurricanes can prepare for it all offseason.

After Stanford, Miami plays Florida A&M six days later, then has another Friday game against Wake Forest, then gets Central Michigan.

Then comes Clemson on Oct. 3.

That is the first huge checkpoint.

That means three of Miami’s first five games are away from home, with trips to Stanford, Wake Forest and Clemson.

That is a very different opening stretch than last year.

After Clemson, Miami gets a bye week before hosting Florida State.

Three of Miami’s ACC opponents play on Friday before playing the Hurricanes. On paper, that gives some teams an extra day of rest. But before Florida State, Miami has a bye, so that one does not matter as much.

Still, it is something to watch.

After Florida State, Miami hosts Pitt, then plays back-to-back road games at North Carolina and Notre Dame.

That Notre Dame game is massive.

It is a night game in South Bend, and it could easily be one of the biggest games of the entire college football season. There is a world where both Miami and Notre Dame are unbeaten or close to it when that game kicks off.

That could be a top-five type game.

The schedule then turns in Miami’s favor.

The Hurricanes finish with three straight home games: Duke, Virginia Tech and Boston College.

So even though Miami has more early travel than last year, the back end is friendly. Five of Miami’s last seven games are at home.

The other big thing?

Miami does not play SMU or Louisville.

Those were the two teams that beat Miami last year.

They are not on the schedule.

That is huge.

Miami also does not have to go to Florida State or Florida.

So yes, the early travel is different. Yes, Stanford is a long trip. Yes, Clemson and Notre Dame are real tests.

But overall?

This is a schedule Miami can absolutely manage.

OUTLOOK

I think Miami is the clear ACC favorite.

I do not think that is a hot take.

The Hurricanes have the best combination of roster talent, recent results, coaching stability and high-end playmakers in the league.

They have Darian Mensah, who just won the ACC at Duke.

They have Malachi Toney, who is one of the most dangerous players in the country.

They have Cooper Barkate, who already knows Mensah and gives Miami another proven receiver.

They have Mark Fletcher, who can carry the run game.

They return a bunch of defensive starters.

They have a schedule that avoids SMU and Louisville.

There is a lot to like.

But the concerns are real enough to keep this from being automatic.

The offensive line has to be rebuilt. The pass rush has to replace major pieces. Mensah has to prove that his aggressive downfield style translates cleanly into a new offense. And Miami has to handle a different travel schedule than it had last year.

That is why this season is so interesting.

Miami is not sneaking up on anybody.

This is not “maybe Miami is back.”

Miami is back in the national conversation already.

Now the Hurricanes have to handle being the hunted.

The best-case scenario is obvious: Mensah becomes a Heisman contender, Toney and Barkate become one of the best receiver duos in the country, Fletcher gives the offense balance, the new offensive line comes together quickly, and the defense stays elite.

If that happens, Miami can win the ACC and absolutely get back to the national championship game.

The worst-case scenario is that the line takes time, the pass rush is not quite the same, Mensah is aggressive but inconsistent, and the early road games create more stress than expected. But my gut says this HAS to be the year Miami actually gets to the ACC Championship.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Did anyone ever think it could get this bad at Florida State?

This is the program of Bobby Bowden, national titles, top-five finishes, top-10 finishes, NFL players everywhere and that feeling that the Seminoles were always supposed to matter.

And it was not that long ago that Mike Norvell had Florida State unbeaten in the regular season. The Noles were 13-0, had the Jordan Travis injury, got left out of the College Football Playoff, got blasted by Georgia in the Orange Bowl, and most people still assumed they would be fine.

Instead?

Florida State is 7-17 over the last two seasons.

Even worse, the Noles are 3-13 in ACC play during that stretch.

Take the Florida State logo off the helmet for a second. If you did not know the brand, and I just told you a team was 3-13 in conference play over two seasons, would you be treating that team like a sleeping giant?

Probably not.

That is what makes this season so important.

Florida State still has the name. It still has the history. It still has the recruiting base. College football is better when the Seminoles are good.

But right now, this program has to prove it is more than a logo.

HEAD COACH:

• Mike Norvell, entering year seven at Florida State
• Norvell is 38-34 at FSU.
• Florida State went 5-7 last season.
• The Noles are 7-17 over the last two seasons.
• Florida State is 3-13 in ACC play over the last two years.

This feels like a pressure-cooker season for Mike Norvell.

And honestly, I do not even know how he sits down with how hot that seat has to be.

The weird thing with Norvell is that he has taken Florida State to highs the program had not seen in years. That undefeated regular season was real. The national conversation was real. The feeling that Florida State was “back” was real.

But now he has also taken Florida State to lows that feel almost impossible for this program.

That is the problem.

You can sell a rebuild for a while. You can sell patience. You can sell portal turnover. You can sell injuries. You can sell needing time.

But year seven is not year two.

At some point, Florida State has to look like Florida State again.

I do not think the standard has to be national title or bust this year. That would be unfair. But if this team is not in the eight- or nine-win range, it is hard to imagine the administration and fan base just shrugging and saying, “Let’s keep waiting.”

This feels like the year where Norvell either stabilizes the program or Florida State starts looking for the next answer.

QUARTERBACK:

The new quarterback is Ashton Daniels, and he has already been named the starter.

Daniels comes over after stops at Stanford and Auburn, and he replaces Tommy Castellanos, who had transferred in from Boston College, made the shirts about Alabama and then watched the season fall apart after that opening win.

Florida State beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa last year, and for about five minutes everybody thought the Noles were back.

Then they were not.

Now Daniels takes over an offense that badly needs stability.

At Auburn last season, Daniels completed 56% of his passes for 797 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He also started the Iron Bowl, which is about as pressurized as it gets in college football. Against Alabama, he went 18-of-39 for 259 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

That game showed some good and some bad.

The good is that Daniels has played in big spots. He has been in real environments. He is not going to walk into ACC stadiums and be shocked by the moment.

The concern is the passing profile.

Daniels has not been a quarterback who consistently attacks deep. In the Iron Bowl, he was 5-of-16 on throws of 20-plus air yards. He had production on those throws, but that was still not a huge part of who he has been.

That matters because Florida State needs more than five-yard throws and quarterback runs.

Daniels can move. He has more than 1,400 career rushing yards, and that part of his game is important. Castellanos was Florida State’s leading rusher last year, so the quarterback run game may still be a major part of what this offense is.

But the Noles need Daniels to be more than a runner who occasionally throws.

They need him to control the offense, protect the ball and make defenses respect the field.

The other part of this is Tim Harris.

Harris takes over the offense after Gus Malzahn retired, and it will be interesting to see how much the offense changes. Last year, Castellanos had a much larger percentage of his throws come off play action than Daniels did at Auburn.

That is something to watch.

Does Florida State lean into play action to help Daniels? Does it use his legs to create easier throws? Does it try to become a more controlled offense after finishing near the bottom of the country in time of possession?

That may decide whether this offense becomes respectable or stays frustrating.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense basically starts with two returning receivers: Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy.

Robinson coming back is massive.

He was a first-team All-ACC player last season after catching 56 passes for 1,081 yards and six touchdowns. He is also the only returning All-ACC player on Florida State’s roster.

In this era of college football, that matters.

Players are basically on one-year contracts now. If you have a star, he can go to the NFL, he can transfer, or he can find a better NIL situation somewhere else. So the fact that Robinson is back gives Florida State at least one clear offensive building block.

Danzy is also back after catching 27 passes and three touchdowns last season.

That is a decent starting point at receiver.

But the rest of the offense is full of questions.

Florida State had 33 scholarship players enter the transfer portal, and the offensive line has been completely rebuilt. The Noles brought in five new offensive linemen with 118 combined career starts.

That sounds good, and it might be good.

But it also tells you how much had to be fixed.

The offensive line is not just adding a piece or two. It is being remade.

Florida State did run the ball well statistically last season, ranking near the top nationally in rushing yards per game, but that number needs context. Castellanos was the leading rusher. So if you are asking whether the run game was a true, traditional, reliable run game, I am not sure the answer is yes.

That brings us to Ousmane Kromah, who should have a chance to be a major part of the offense.

If Florida State can run the ball with the running backs and not just the quarterback, that changes everything. It keeps Daniels out of obvious passing downs. It helps the new offensive line. It gives the defense a chance to rest.

And that last part is important because Florida State was 113th in time of possession.

That is brutal.

The Noles could not control games. They could not put together long drives. They could not consistently finish in the red zone either, ranking 92nd in red zone scoring.

That is how a season falls apart.

It is not just one thing. It is all of it together.

You cannot stay on the field. You cannot finish drives. You cannot protect your defense. Then the defense gets exposed, and the whole thing snowballs.

That is what Florida State has to stop this year.

DEFENSE

The defense has a few pieces back, but this group also has a lot to prove.

The key returning names are Daniel Lyons on the defensive line, Blake Nicholson at linebacker, and defensive backs Ashlynd Barker and Ja’Bril Rawls.

That is not nothing.

But it is not enough by itself.

Florida State needed help in the transfer portal, especially in the front seven, and the Noles added some players who should matter right away.

Rylan Kennedy comes in from Texas A&M as a pass rusher. Chris Jones comes in from Southern Miss after putting up 133 tackles and 3.5 sacks last season.

Those guys have to make an impact.

Because Florida State’s defense was not just dealing with normal problems last year. The red zone defense was a disaster. Opponents scored on 88% of their red zone trips, and Florida State ranked 109th nationally in red zone defense.

That is the kind of number that kills you.

It is one thing to give up yards. Everybody gives up yards now. College football is built for offense.

But once the opponent gets close, you have to find ways to force field goals, create negative plays or steal possessions.

Florida State did not do that enough.

The turnover margin was also a problem. The Noles were minus-0.5 in turnover margin per game, which ranked near the bottom nationally.

Again, this is how bad teams lose close games.

You lose the turnover battle. You fail in the red zone. You cannot stay on the field offensively. You put your defense in bad spots.

Suddenly, the helmet does not matter.

The other team does not care that you are Florida State.

SCHEDULE

The schedule gives Florida State a chance early, but it also gives the Noles a chance to spiral quickly.

That is the scary part.

Florida State plays four of its first five games at home, which is a real advantage. The Noles open with New Mexico State, then host SMU on Labor Day night.

That SMU game is huge.

It is another standalone-type spot for Florida State, and we have seen those go badly before. If Florida State wins that game, there is some real early momentum. If the Noles lose it, the pressure immediately gets louder.

Then comes the trip to Alabama.

And let’s be honest: Alabama is going to remember what happened last year.

Florida State beat Alabama 31-17 in Tuscaloosa last season. Kalen DeBoer is not going to let his team forget that. The crowd is not going to forget that. That place is going to be nasty.

After Alabama, Florida State gets Central Arkansas and Virginia at home.

The Virginia game matters because that was where things started to go sideways last year. Florida State lost on a Friday night, and after that, the season never really recovered.

Then comes the meat of the schedule.

Florida State goes to Louisville on a Friday night, then goes to Miami eight days later.

That is a brutal two-game road stretch.

The Miami game is always big, but it would be great for college football if Florida State-Miami felt like it did in the early 2000s again. Right now, Miami is the program expecting to compete for the ACC and the playoff. Florida State is trying to prove it is not broken.

That is a very different dynamic than what this rivalry used to be.

The good news is Florida State gets a bye before hosting Clemson.

That helps.

After Clemson, the Noles host Boston College, go to Pitt, host NC State, and then finish with Florida in Tallahassee.

The schedule is not impossible.

But it is dangerous.

If Florida State beats New Mexico State and then loses to SMU and Alabama, this could be a 1-2 team by the middle of September. And at that point, with Louisville, Miami, Clemson, Pitt and Florida still ahead, things could get ugly fast.

On the other hand, if Florida State starts 2-0 and goes to Alabama with confidence, maybe the whole conversation changes.

That is why the early games are massive.

Florida State also plays eight of its 12 games in the state of Florida, which helps. The travel is not terrible. The schedule gives the Noles chances.

But the margin for error does not feel big.

Not with this roster. Not with this staff pressure. Not after the last two years.

OUTLOOK

I want Florida State to be good.

I really do.

College football is better when Florida State is one of the big boys. It is better when the Noles are in the top five or top 10. It is better when Florida State-Miami means something nationally. It is better when Doak Campbell Stadium feels like a place nobody wants to visit.

But wanting it does not make it true.

Right now, Florida State has to earn back the benefit of the doubt.

The Noles are 3-13 in ACC play over the last two seasons. That is the fact that sticks with me more than anything else.

Three and thirteen.

That is not a rough patch. That is not one weird year. That is a program that has been one of the worst teams in its own league for two seasons.

So when people say, “Well, it’s Florida State, they’ll figure it out,” I get it.

But will they figure it out under Mike Norvell?

That is the real question.

The best-case scenario is that Ashton Daniels gives Florida State steady quarterback play, Duce Robinson becomes one of the best receivers in the ACC again, the rebuilt offensive line comes together quickly, and the defense gets enough help from the portal to fix the red zone and turnover problems.

If that happens, Florida State can absolutely be a bowl team and maybe push toward that eight-win range.

The worst-case scenario is that Daniels is not the answer, the offensive line takes too long to gel, the red zone problems continue, and the early schedule puts Norvell in survival mode before October.

That is on the table too.

My gut?

Florida State will be better eventually.

There is too much history, too much passion and too much talent in the state of Florida for this program to stay down forever.

But I do not know if “eventually” starts this year.

And I do not know if it happens under Mike Norvell.

For now, Florida State is not a powerhouse.

It is a team trying to prove it is not lost.

And for a program with that logo, that history and that fan base, that is a very uncomfortable place to be.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Clemson is one of the most fascinating teams in the country this year.

And not because the Tigers are coming off some monster season.

It is actually the opposite.

Clemson went 7-6 last year, finished 4-4 in the ACC, and had its worst record since 2010. That is not normal Clemson football. That is not normal Dabo Swinney football. From 2011 through 2022, Clemson lost only nine ACC games total. Over the last three years, the Tigers have lost nine ACC games.

That is the story here.

For almost a decade, Clemson felt inevitable. The Tigers were the standard in the ACC. They had the quarterback. They had the defensive line. They had the NFL receivers. They had the coaching staff. They had the swagger.

Now?

Now Clemson feels like a mystery.

And honestly, that makes them a lot more interesting.

HEAD COACH:

• Dabo Swinney, entering year 18 at Clemson
• Swinney is 187-53 as Clemson’s head coach.
• Clemson went 7-6 last season and 4-4 in the ACC.
• It was Clemson’s worst record since 2010.
• Clemson lost the Pinstripe Bowl to Penn State.

I don’t care what anybody says — Dabo Swinney still deserves respect.

You do not accidentally win two national championships. You do not accidentally build Clemson into a national powerhouse. You do not accidentally go 187-53 at a place that was not this before you got there.

But that does not mean the questions are unfair.

They are very fair.

Clemson has not looked like Clemson lately. The program has slipped from “national title contender” to “maybe this team can get back to the ACC Championship Game.” That is a huge drop for a program that used to own this league.

And this offseason, Dabo finally did something that people had been begging him to do for years.

He used the transfer portal.

He also made a major staff change, bringing Chad Morris back as offensive coordinator. Clemson officially announced Morris as the new OC in January.

That is a very Dabo move.

Instead of chasing the hot new name, he went back to someone he knows. Morris was part of the first Clemson offensive boom under Dabo. Now he is being asked to help fix a Clemson offense that has become way too ordinary.

It feels like Dabo is trying to go back in order to move forward.

We’ll see if it works.

QUARTERBACK:

This is where the season starts.

Cade Klubnik is gone, and Clemson has to figure out what comes next.

The main name is Christopher Vizzina. He played some last season, completing 45 of 71 passes for 406 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. He also ran 25 times for 41 yards.

Those numbers are fine.

But they also do not tell us everything.

Vizzina has talent. He was a big recruit. He has been in the program. He knows the offense. And coming out of spring, Chad Morris said Vizzina was the guy.

So if you are asking who I expect to take the first snap, I would say Christopher Vizzina. It’s hard to image Reynolds being the guy to lead Clemson into the other Death Valley (LSU) to face Lane Kiffin and a raucous crowd in Baton Rouge on Sept. 5.

But that does not mean this is settled forever.

Tait Reynolds is also in the room, and the interesting part there is that he is a talented freshman who barely got to play as a senior in high school. So Clemson has a young quarterback with upside, but also a quarterback who needs reps badly.

That makes this hard.

“Absolutely, absolutely,” Dabo Swinney said in the spring when asked if Reynolds could push Vizzina for the starting QB position. “Ain’t nobody got lifetime contracts around here. Everybody has to prove it. Everybody has to show up. Everybody has to earn it.”

If Vizzina is ready, Clemson can be dangerous. Not necessarily national-title dangerous, but “back in the ACC race” dangerous.

If he is not ready, this season could get sideways fast.

Because Clemson does not have the old Clemson margin for error right now. This is not the version of the Tigers where the defense gives up 13 points every week and the offense just has to be decent. This team needs the quarterback to be good.

Not okay.

Good.

That is the biggest difference between Clemson being back in the mix and Clemson being a 7- or 8-win team again.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

This is where I actually like Clemson more than I thought I would.

The Tigers have some real pieces.

The receiver room starts with T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco Jr.. Moore and Wesco combined for 83 catches last season, and both give the QB room something to work with right away.

That matters.

A new quarterback’s best friend is a receiver who can win.

Clemson has two of them.

Olsen Patt-Henry is back at tight end, and the offensive line brings back Colin Sadler and Harris Sewell. That is not a perfect offense, but it is not empty either.

The bigger issue is identity.

Last year, Clemson scored 27.2 points per game. That is not terrible, but for Clemson, it is not good enough. The Tigers also averaged 3.95 yards per carry, which is not the kind of run game that scares anybody.

That is why Chad Morris matters so much.

Clemson needs juice again.

The Tigers need tempo. They need explosives. They need a run game that does not feel like it is being dragged uphill. They need to stop looking like a team that is trying really hard to be Clemson instead of just being Clemson.

The transfer to watch is Chris Johnson Jr., the former SMU running back.

Johnson ran for 479 yards and four touchdowns at SMU last season while averaging more than seven yards per carry. He also caught 17 passes for 180 yards and a touchdown. And Clemson fans already saw him up close — he had 59 rushing yards, a touchdown and 40 receiving yards against Clemson last season.

That is a fun addition.

Johnson brings speed. Clemson has needed more of that.

He may not be a 25-carry-a-game back, but he gives the offense something it badly needs: a player who can turn a small crease into a big play.

So offensively, the question is simple:

Can Chad Morris make Clemson explosive again?

Because the names are not bad. Vizzina, Moore, Wesco, Patt-Henry, Johnson, Sadler, Sewell — there is enough there to be good.

But Clemson needs more than “good on paper.”

The Tigers need production.

DEFENSE

This is the part that feels the least Clemson-like.

When you think about Clemson at its best, you think about defensive linemen who look like they were created in a lab. You think about pressure. You think about linebackers flying around. You think about offenses getting uncomfortable.

Last year, Clemson was not bad defensively.

But it also was not the old Clemson defense.

The Tigers allowed 20.5 points per game, which sounds good, but opponents still threw for 3,266 yards against them. Teams also attempted 484 passes against Clemson compared to 387 rushing attempts, which tells you opponents were not afraid to put the ball in the air.

That is the part that stands out.

Teams were willing to throw on Clemson.

That sentence used to sound weird.

The returning names matter. Sammy Brown is back at linebacker. Will Heldt is back, and he was a third-team All-ACC player. Ashton Hampton gives them experience in the secondary.

But Clemson also lost a lot.

That is why the transfer portal was so important.

Dabo brought in real defensive help, including Jerome Carter III from Old Dominion and Corey Myrick from Southern Miss. Carter had 75 tackles and a school-record six interceptions at Old Dominion last season, while Myrick came to Clemson after a 2025 season at Southern Miss with 92 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, two interceptions and a forced fumble.

That is not window dressing.

That is Clemson admitting it needed help and actually going to get it.

And honestly, that might be the most interesting thing about this team.

For years, people criticized Dabo for not using the portal enough. Now Clemson is coming off a disappointing season, and suddenly the Tigers are bringing in players who could actually start right away.

That tells you Dabo knows this cannot just be “business as usual.”

The defense does not have to become 2018 Clemson overnight.

But it does need to feel dangerous again.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is not easy.

Clemson opens at LSU.

That is a statement game immediately. There is no easing into this season. There is no soft opening. You start in Baton Rouge against an SEC opponent, and we will learn a lot about Clemson right away.

After that, the Tigers get Georgia Southern and North Carolina at home before making the long trip to Cal on a Friday night. Then comes one of the biggest games on the schedule: Miami at Clemson on Oct. 3.

That first month is fascinating.

At LSU.

Home for North Carolina.

At California.

Home for Miami.

That is not boring.

The good news is Clemson plays five of its first seven games at home. After the open date, the Tigers get Charleston Southern and Virginia Tech in Death Valley before the schedule turns again.

The final stretch is where it gets tricky.

Clemson plays at Florida State, at Syracuse, home against Georgia Tech, at Duke, and then home against South Carolina.

That is not a brutal schedule from start to finish, but the big games are very real.

And the SEC games are fascinating.

Clemson has gone 4-8 in its last 12 games against the SEC, and this year the Tigers get LSU and South Carolina. Those games matter for the record, obviously, but they also matter for perception.

If Clemson beats LSU to start the season, the whole narrative changes.

If Clemson loses that game and then drops one to North Carolina, Cal or Miami, suddenly people are asking the same old questions again before October even really gets rolling.

That is the pressure of being Clemson.

When you have been great, people do not give you much time to prove you are still good.

OUTLOOK

I keep going back and forth on Clemson.

Part of me says this is the year the Tigers bounce back. The roster still has talent. Dabo Swinney is still Dabo Swinney. Chad Morris should bring some energy back to the offense. Christopher Vizzina has upside. T.J. Moore and Bryant Wesco are real weapons. Chris Johnson Jr. gives the offense speed. The portal additions on defense should help right away.

That is the optimistic version.

The other version is this:

Clemson is replacing its quarterback. The offense was not good enough last season. The run game was not scary. The defense is not the old Clemson defense. The schedule opens at LSU and includes Miami, Florida State, Duke and South Carolina. And the program has not looked like the dominant version of itself for a few years now.

That is the concern.

I do think Clemson will be better.

But I do not know if I am ready to say Clemson is back.

That word gets thrown around too easily. “Back” for Clemson does not mean going 8-4. It does not even mean being decent. For Clemson, back means winning the ACC, making the Playoff and looking like a team nobody wants to play.

I’m not sure we are there yet.

The best-case scenario is that Vizzina wins the job and looks ready, Morris fixes the offensive rhythm, Moore and Wesco become one of the best receiver duos in the league, and the defense gets immediate help from the transfers. If that happens, Clemson can absolutely be in the ACC Championship conversation.

The worst-case scenario is that the quarterback spot is shaky, the offense still feels stuck, the defense is just okay, and the schedule exposes the Tigers early.

My gut?

Clemson is too talented to be bad.

But the Tigers are no longer too talented to question.

That is the difference.

For years, Clemson entered the season as the ACC team everyone else was chasing.

This year, Clemson enters the season trying to prove it still belongs in that conversation.

And for Dabo Swinney, that makes this one of the most important seasons he has had in a long time.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

Ask the average college football fan who won the ACC in 2025, and I bet a lot of people would say Miami.

And that’s funny, because Miami didn’t even play in the ACC Championship Game.

The Hurricanes made the national title game. They were the ACC team everyone remembers. But the actual ACC champion? That was Duke.

The Blue Devils beat Virginia, finished off one of the weirdest conference title runs you’ll ever see, and gave us the kind of season that is going to become a trivia question five or 10 years from now.

Duke went 9-5 overall, 6-2 in the ACC, won a strange five-team tiebreaker to get into the championship game, and then actually won the league.

That is a big deal.

But now comes the problem.

The quarterback who made it happen is gone. His top receiver is gone with him. And Duke has to prove last year was not just a weird, magical season that history slowly forgets.

HEAD COACH:

• Manny Diaz, entering year three at Duke
• Diaz is 18-9 through two seasons with the Blue Devils.
• Duke went 9-5 last season and won the ACC.
• Duke has only won 10 games once in school history, back in 2013.

I don’t think Manny Diaz gets enough credit for what he has already done at Duke.

When Mike Elko left for Texas A&M, it would have been easy for Duke to slide right back into being that program people only mention when basketball season starts. Instead, Diaz has gone 18-9 through two years and just won the ACC.

At Duke, that is pretty incredible.

This is a school that has only won 10 games once ever. So the funny part is, Duke won the ACC last year and still did not even get to 10 wins.

That tells you how strange the season was.

It also tells you why this year is so interesting. Duke is not some obvious powerhouse that everyone is going to pick to repeat. But this is also not the old Duke anymore.

Diaz has made Duke relevant.

Now he has to keep it there after losing the most important player on the roster.

QUARTERBACK:

This is the whole season.

Darian Mensah is gone. He transferred to Miami, and that changed the entire feel of the ACC offseason.

For a while, it looked like Duke might be loaded enough to make another run near the top of the conference. Then, suddenly, Miami needed a quarterback, Mensah ended up there, and Duke went from having one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the league to having a major question.

Mensah was not just productive. He was aggressive.

That is what made Duke fun. He was not afraid to throw the ball downfield. He challenged defenses. According to Pro Football Focus, Mensah threw 86 passes of 20-plus air yards last season. Duke did not just dink and dunk its way to an ACC title. The Blue Devils attacked people.

And then Miami did not just take Mensah.

The Hurricanes also got Cooper Barkate, one of Duke’s best receivers.

That makes it hurt even more.

Now Duke turns to Walker Eget, the transfer from San Jose State. And I actually like a lot about this move.

Eget threw for more than 3,000 yards last season. He had 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He was only sacked six times all year. He finished 11th nationally in passing yards per game at 277, just behind Mensah.

And here’s the part I really like: Eget also threw it deep.

He had 82 throws of 20-plus air yards, which ranked third nationally. Mensah was right there near the top too. So Duke did not just grab an experienced quarterback. It grabbed another guy who is comfortable stretching defenses.

That matters.

There are quarterbacks who live within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Eget is not that guy.

The concern is that he was not healthy in the spring. That opened the door for freshman Dan Mahan to get a lot of the meaningful reps. I still think the intention was probably for Eget to be the guy, but you do have to wonder whether Mahan gained real ground.

At the very least, it makes fall camp more interesting.

Duke does not need Eget or Mahan to be Mensah. That is probably unfair.

But Duke does need good quarterback play. Not average. Good.

Because the Blue Devils are not going to defend their ACC title if the quarterback spot becomes a weekly problem.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The good news is Duke still has pieces.

The offense should be built around Nate Sheppard, and honestly, that might be the safest place for it to start.

Sheppard ran for more than 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns last season and earned second-team All-ACC honors. With Mensah gone, Duke probably needs Sheppard to be the foundation early.

That does not mean the Blue Devils should become boring. It just means they need to make life easier on whoever wins the quarterback job.

If Eget is the starter, give him a run game. If Mahan pushes him, give the young guy a run game. Either way, Sheppard has to be heavily involved.

Jeremiah Hasley is also back at tight end, and he should be a big part of the offense. He caught 40 passes and six touchdowns last season, including the game-winner in the ACC Championship Game.

That is the kind of player a new quarterback loves having.

Duke also brings back Matt Craycraft and Jordan Larsen on the offensive line, and the Blue Devils added Nick Del Grande from Coastal Carolina. Del Grande was a 35-game starter, so Duke has some real experience up front.

That matters a lot.

When you are replacing a quarterback, the offensive line can either make the transition manageable or make it impossible.

The other big name to know is Jared Richardson, the transfer receiver from Penn. He was an FCS All-American and has almost 200 career catches.

Can he step in and replace Barkate? Maybe. That is asking a lot, but Duke needs somebody in that receiver room to become the guy.

Because if defenses can crowd Sheppard, take away Hasley and force Duke’s receivers to win outside, somebody has to answer.

That is probably the biggest offensive question after quarterback.

DEFENSE

This is the part that is hard to ignore.

Duke won the ACC last year, but it did not exactly do it because the defense was dominant.

The Blue Devils had serious issues on that side of the ball. They were 96th in scoring defense. They were dead last nationally in passing yards allowed. Not last in the ACC. Not last among power-conference teams. Dead last in the entire country.

That is hard to do.

And that is also why I think there is room for improvement.

Duke almost has to be better against the pass because it is difficult to be worse. Manny Diaz and his staff clearly know this had to be a priority, and Duke does bring back some experience in the secondary.

The Blue Devils have Luke Mergott back, and they return three defensive backs in Landan Callahan, Kimari Robinson and DaShawn Stone. They also have multiple defensive backs with starting experience, which should help.

But this defense needs more than experience.

It needs results.

Last year, Duke survived a lot because the offense was good, the quarterback was careful with the ball, and the defense found ways to create enough big moments.

The turnover numbers were a huge part of it. Duke was top 10 in turnover margin per game and top six in interception percentage. That is great, but it is also the kind of thing that can swing the other way the next season.

Turnover luck does not always travel year to year.

That is the danger.

If Duke is not as good at protecting the ball without Mensah, and if the defense does not force as many mistakes, suddenly those close games can flip.

That is why the pass defense has to improve. Duke cannot just rely on turnovers again. It needs to actually get stops.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is one of the reasons I do not want to write Duke off.

There are some tricky games, but there are also some things that set up very nicely.

Duke opens at home against Tulane, and that is not some cupcake. Tulane was a playoff team last year, and that program is not scared of anybody. (Also, Tulane literally beat Duke last year.)

Then Duke goes to Illinois, which is another interesting test. After that, the Blue Devils come back home for Stanford and William & Mary.

So three of the first four games are at home.

That is big.

And in the new ACC, this next part matters even more: Duke avoids the Pacific Time Zone completely.

No trip to Cal. No trip to Stanford. No road game at SMU either.

That is gigantic.

In this version of the ACC, travel is a real part of the story. Some teams are going to have to fly across the country, adjust three time zones and play teams that are sleeping in their own beds.

Duke does not have to deal with that this year.

Stanford comes to Durham. Cal is not on the schedule. SMU is not on the schedule. Duke’s longest ACC road trip is Miami.

And look, Miami is a monster trip in terms of opponent. That is the defending national runner-up, and now the Hurricanes have Duke’s quarterback and Duke’s receiver.

That game is going to have some juice.

But geographically, Duke got a pretty favorable draw.

The Blue Devils also play eight of their 12 games in the state of North Carolina. That is wild. Between home games and road trips to NC State and Wake Forest, Duke is staying close to home more than most ACC teams could ever hope to.

That gives this team a chance.

The road games at NC State, Miami and Wake Forest will not be easy. Clemson at home is obviously a huge test. North Carolina is always interesting, especially with Bill Belichick in year two.

But the schedule is not impossible.

For a team replacing its quarterback, that matters.

OUTLOOK

I keep coming back to the same question.

Was Duke’s 2025 season the start of something, or was it the weird season people are going to forget?

Because I really do think that is how history may treat it.

People will remember Miami making the national title game. They will remember the Hurricanes. They will remember the big names. But years from now, someone is going to ask, “Who won the ACC in 2025?” and a lot of people are going to get it wrong.

The answer is Duke.

That deserves respect.

But respect does not win games in 2026.

Duke has to replace Mensah. It has to replace Barkate. It has to fix a pass defense that was the worst in the country. It has to prove the turnover margin was not just a one-year wave that disappears.

That is a lot.

But I do not think Duke is in trouble. I think Duke is interesting.

If Walker Eget is healthy and wins the job, he gives the Blue Devils a quarterback who can push the ball down the field. If Dan Mahan makes it a real competition, then maybe Duke has more at quarterback than people realize. Sheppard is a legitimate ACC running back. Hasley is a strong tight end. Richardson could be a major addition. The offensive line has real experience.

And the schedule gives Duke a chance to get comfortable.

So no, I am not picking Duke to repeat as ACC champion right now.

But I am not dismissing the Blue Devils either.

The best-case scenario is that Eget gives Duke solid-to-good quarterback play, Sheppard remains one of the best running backs in the ACC, Richardson helps replace Barkate, and the defense improves enough against the pass to keep Duke in the upper half of the league.

The worst-case scenario is that Mensah was the magic, the turnovers regress, and the pass defense still cannot get off the field.

My gut says Duke will be competitive. The Blue Devils will annoy people. They will probably ruin somebody’s season.

But to win the ACC again?

I need to see it without Mensah first.

Last year, Duke gave us one of the strangest ACC title seasons in recent memory.

This year, the Blue Devils have to prove it was more than a trivia answer.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

I’m continuing my tour of college football with a look at the California Golden Bears, which still looks strange every time I type it next to the ACC.

Cal’s second year in the league was not a disaster. The Bears went 7-6 and 4-4 in ACC play, won at Louisville and got to a bowl game.

But it still wasn’t enough to keep Justin Wilcox around.

Now, Cal turns to a Bay Area guy and former Golden Bear in Tosh Lupoi. And while Cal might not be a national title contender, the Bears are one of the more interesting teams in the ACC because they have a quarterback, a new coach, a brutal travel reality and a schedule that could either give them early momentum or expose the holes quickly. Could they – at bare minimum – play spoiler to playoff contenders in the ACC?

HEAD COACH

• Tosh Lupoi, entering year one at California
• Lupoi is a former Cal player and assistant who comes back to Berkeley after serving as Oregon’s defensive coordinator.
• Last year, Cal went 7-6 and 4-4 in the ACC.
• Cal has not had a winning record in conference play since 2009, obviously going back to its Pac 12 days.

This is a homecoming, but it’s also a gamble.

Lupoi has coached in big-time programs. He has been at Oregon. He has been at Alabama. He has NFL experience. He can recruit. He knows the school. He knows the Bay Area.

But this is also his first head coaching job, and Cal is not an easy place to win big.

The good news? He doesn’t walk into the job without a quarterback. That’s a rare reality for a first time head coach.

QUARTERBACK

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is the reason Cal is interesting.

Usually with a coaching change, the first question is whether the new coach has a quarterback. Cal does.

Sagapolutele threw for 3,454 yards, 18 touchdowns and 9 interceptions last season while completing 64.2% of his passes. For a freshman quarterback in a new conference, that is a real foundation. He threw the ball deep 71 times last year, ninth most in the entire country. That’s a stat I love for QBs. The kid is not afraid to let it fly.

He wasn’t perfect. Cal still had too many games where the offense felt like it was asking him to do everything. He also took too many sacks (30), which is what happens when a team cannot consistently run the ball and opponents know the quarterback has to carry the offense.

But there is a major difference between “we need to find a quarterback” and “we need our talented young quarterback to take the next step.”

Cal is in the second category.

Sagapolutele had enough flashes to make you believe he can be one of the better quarterbacks in the ACC. Now the question is whether Lupoi and the offensive staff can build an actual offense around him instead of asking him to survive every Saturday.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

Cal returns six starters on offense: Sagapolutele, wide receiver Mark Hamper, tight end Mason Mini and offensive linemen Tyson Ruffins, Sioape Vatikani and Frederick Williams III.

That sounds decent on paper.

But the run game has to be fixed immediately.

Cal ran for just 1,062 yards last season, averaging 81.7 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per carry. That is not just bad. That is the kind of number that makes every third down feel like third-and-forever.

The Bears also return almost nothing at running back, which means Washington transfer Adam Mohammed may have a chance to become the starter right away. Mohammed had 523 rushing yards and five touchdowns with the Huskies last season, while also catching 17 passes.

That is useful production, but Cal is likely asking him to be more than a rotation piece.

And they have completely reloaded at wide receiver.

Mark Hamper, a returner, is also interesting. He only had 17 catches last year, but he had 49 catches for 961 yards and six touchdowns at Idaho in 2024 before eventually landing at Cal. If he is healthy and takes a step forward, he could become a much bigger part of this offense.

Tight End Mason Mini should help, too. He had 35 catches and four touchdowns last season and gives Sagapolutele a reliable tight end target.

But the reinforcements at WR mean everything. Chase Hendricks, who comes in from Ohio, caught 71 passes last year. And many might say, “well, it was Ohio.” Think again. In the Bobcats’ first three games last year – all against Power 4 competition (Rutgers, West Virginia and Ohio State) – Hendricks caught 20 passes. And he had a huge TD against Ohio State that made it a 13-9 game early in the third quarter. It wasn’t garbage time, as the outcome was still in doubt.

At TE, Dorian Thomas also transfers in from New Mexico. He had 56 catches, 560 yards and four touchdowns last year. And like Hendricks, he showed big game potential, catching 10 passes and two touchdowns against Michigan in the Lobos opener.

Cooper Perry, an Oregon transfer, also comes in at wide receiver.

Ultimately, offense comes down to two things:

Can Cal protect Sagapolutele?

And can Cal run the ball well enough to keep defenses honest?

If the answer to both is no, the Bears may have a good quarterback and still be stuck in a frustrating offense.

DEFENSE

This is where Lupoi’s background makes things interesting.

He is a defensive coach, and Cal needs defensive improvement.

The Bears return only three defensive starters: defensive backs Aiden Manutai and Cam Sidney, and linebacker Jayden Wayne. None of Cal’s All-ACC players return.

That is a lot of turnover.

And the defense was not disruptive enough last year. Cal had 21 sacks as a team, forced eight interceptions and allowed opponents to average 4.7 yards per rush. If you can’t pressure the quarterback, force turnovers or stop the run, you are never going to get off the field on defense.  

That is not how a Lupoi defense wants to live.

If you cannot sack the quarterback and cannot consistently stop the run, you are reacting instead of dictating. That is a dangerous way to play in this version of the ACC, especially when you are dealing with teams like Clemson, Virginia Tech, SMU, NC State and Pitt.

Cam Sidney and Aiden Manutai give Cal some experience in the secondary. Jayden Wayne had 25 tackles and two sacks last season, and he feels like the kind of player Lupoi needs to unlock.

But Cal needs more than a couple of returning names. It needs a defensive identity.

That is probably Lupoi’s biggest year-one job.

SCHEDULE

There is some good news for Cal.

The Bears play five of their first seven games at home, and some of those ACC teams have to deal with the long trip west.

Cal opens with UCLA at home, then goes to Syracuse before returning home for Wagner and Clemson. After a trip to UNLV, the Bears host Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, meaning three east coast to pacific times trips in the first 7 games for Cal opponents.

That stretch matters a lot.

If Cal is 5-2 or even 4-3 after those first seven, you can talk yourself into the Bears being a bowl team again. But if they stumble early, the middle of the schedule gets dangerous fast.

After Wake Forest on Oct. 17, Cal does not play another home game until Nov. 21. The Bears go to SMU, NC State and Virginia with a bye mixed in.

That is the Cal-in-the-ACC experience.

Three true Eastern Time Zone road trips. Another long trip to SMU. Then the season ends at home with Stanford and Pittsburgh.

The Big Game being at home matters after Stanford ate their lunch last year. The Pitt game could matter, too, especially if Cal is sitting around five or six wins.

But the schedule feels like one where Cal needs to take advantage of the early home games, because the middle of the season could get rough.

OUTLOOK

Sagapolutele gives the Bears a chance. Lupoi should bring energy, recruiting juice and defensive credibility. The offense should be explosive with JKS at QB and all of the weapons at wide receiver.

And you bring in a defensive guy to fix the defense right? That should help.

Cal has pieces. The cupboard is far from bare.

But in the ACC, especially for a West Coast team living in an East Coast league, pieces are not enough. Lupoi has to turn those pieces into a real identity quickly.

I think Cal could be a sneaky contender in a wide open ACC after Miami. And guess who isn’t on the Bears’ schedule? Yeah, Miami.

The first seven games feel gigantic. Can Cal get off to a good enough start for conference games to matter in October and November? I think it can.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.

That’s why it’s important to get to know them now, whether you’re going to be gambling, a college football junkie, or a Notre Dame or Miami (FL) fan with national championship aspirations.

HEAD COACH:

• Bill O’Brien (9-16 at Boston College, entering year three)
• Last year, the Eagles were 2-10, 1-7 in the ACC. Their one ACC victory was against a Steve Angeli-less Syracuse Orange.
• BC has not had a winning record in conference play since 2009.

QUARTERBACK:

Dylan Lonergan, now at Rutgers, looked like he was going to set the world on fire. He threw 8 touchdowns in BC’s first two games, and on my daily TikTok show, I remember saying that this was not the same BC offense. Lonergan had nearly 400 yards in a week 2, 2OT loss to Michigan State.  

And then he had 333 yards in a loss to Stanford, giving him 991 yards through three weeks. As it turns out, that was one of my worst predictions of the year.

By week 5, he was getting pulled from the Pittsburgh game, BC’s fourth straight loss. BC lost 10 in a row before beating the Angeli-less Orange in the final week of the year, led by senior Grayson James at QB, not Lonergan.

Lonergan is now a Scarlett Knight, and the BC offense will turn to one of three guys – Mason McKenzie, Grayson Wilson or Femi Babalola.

McKenzie is a transfer from Saginaw State who threw for 4300 yards, 31 TDs and 17 INTs last season. He’s exactly the kind of player you take a flyer on when your program is among the hardest to recruit at in the Power 4. However, playing at Harvey Randall Wickes Memorial Stadium in front of 6,800 fans (when it’s at capacity) is going to be very different from playing at Hard Rock Stadium 60,000+ fans. He also can move if he gets flushed from the pocket.

HE LEAPS! HE SCORES! ⭐️

Mason McKenzie takes it all the way to the house!

📺: https://t.co/7zk66zANbH#GLIACfb | @GLIACsports | @svsu_football pic.twitter.com/xo552FEIv1

— FloCollege | Football (@FloCollegeFB) November 8, 2025

Wilson is a redshirt freshman who spent his first year at Arkansas. He did not get any game action with the Razorbacks. He was a former four-star prospect out of high school and the number two overall prospect from the state of Arkansas, per 247 Sports.

Babalola is a three-star prospect who also plays basketball and competes in track and field.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

Only one offensive player returns, offensive lineman Michael Crounse, who ranked 606th in Pro Football Focus’s offensive linemen rankings. He allowed 13 quarterback pressures and plays all of his 632 snaps at center, per PFF.

Running back Evan Dickens, who was third in the nation in rushing at Liberty, figures to be the focal point of the offense. He had 1,339 yards last season and 16 touchdowns on 229 carries. I always like to evaluate non-Power 4 players by how they played against a Power 4 opponent, but that’s impossible for Dickens. Liberty’s toughest game last year was against playoff-bound James Madison, and he had 17 carries for 67 yards in that game. He finished the season on a tear, with over 100 yards in five straight games and over 200 in three of the five games. He had 267 yards against Kennesaw State in the season finale on 43 carries.

He is a breath of fresh air for a BC team that threw the ball 57% of the time last year, 10th most in college football.

MAKE THAT 4 TDS FOR EVAN DICKENS @LibertyFootball pic.twitter.com/nxktqzYxRV

— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) November 1, 2025

Wide receiver Jackson Wade, a preferred walk-on at Florida, has now transferred to BC and was a spring standout. He played 62 snaps for the Gators last year, mostly all on special teams.

DEFENSE

Ted Roof, who has decades of coaching experience and helped lead the Cam Newton-led Auburn Tigers to the BCS National Championship game, is now the BC defensive coordinator.

And he has his hands full.

BC gave up nearly 35 points and 450+ yards per game last season, among the worst in the nation. The Eagles gave up 5.3 yards per rush and allowed opponents to complete over 65% of their passes. Ouch.

Four players are back on defense – DB Carter Davis, DB Isaiah Farris, DL Chris Marable and DB KP Price. The Eagles also brought in reinforcements via the transfer portal in Anthony Palano (Washington State), Bodie Kahoun (Notre Dame) and Kris Jones (Georgia). Palano is the most accomplished in college from that trio, playing in 18 career games at Washington State and South Dakota State. In 12 games (seven starts) with the Cougars, he had 65 tackles, four QB pressures and two pass breakups. Jones was previously the number two overall prospect from the state of Virginia. The defensive end played two seasons for Kirby Smart at UGA, appearing in 14 games, including the Sugar Bowl.

SCHEDULE

There is some good news if you’re a Boston College fan. In an ACC that now includes two schools in the Pacific Time zone, the Eagles won’t make a trip to either Stanford or California this year. But trips to Notre Dame and Miami highlight an insanely tough November. You may be talking about BC around the Thanksgiving table this year, but it might be because you’re wondering if they can hang around with a top 5 team – twice.

Even while opening at Cincinnati, BC plays four of its first six games at home. The only other road trip in that span is the long trek to SMU, which figures to be a contender with Kevin Jennings back.

The home opener on Sept. 11 includes a return of Lonergan, as Rutgers comes to Chestnut Hill. BC takes on Maine in week three and then gets James Franklin-led Virginia Tech on Sept. 26. Many will be watching how Franklin fares in year one with the Hokies.

Four of BC’s final 6 games are on the road, with trips included to Georgia Tech, Duke, Notre Dame and Miami. The only home games in that stretch are against Florida State and Syracuse, and I expect the Orange not to be quarterback-less this time around, as they were in 2025.

OUTLOOK

There are some things to like here, but it feels like BC is trying to push a boulder uphill – and the mountain keeps getting larger. The ACC is improving. Yes, Duke won it in 2025 in a weird five-team tiebreaker, but Miami (FL) made the national title game and is again reloading.

O’Brien needs to find a quarterback and Dickens could be the key to the offense at running back.

The defense needed reinforcements, and they found them. Jones was highly recruited and has been in huge games at UGA. Maybe he can be a star. They need them.

And the schedule feels daunting. Early season games at Cincinnati and Rutgers feel winnable, and if BC hopes to go to a bowl game, they have to be, because nothing stands out as a sure win on this entire schedule after the Maine game.