Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 9:00 PM CT
Location: Hornet Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): SAC -35.5
Over/under: 56.5

The setup

Sacramento State is one of the two newest FBS programs, but this is its first game against a lower-division team since a 77-19 win in 2019. The new kid at the FBS table gets to play the heavyweight for one night.

What I’m watching

The thing to watch is how quickly Sacramento St’s rebuilt offense settles in. Sacramento St averaged 33.8 points per game last season and returns one offensive starter. Miss Valley St allowed 52.8 points per game.

Personnel snapshot

• Mississippi Valley State: Terrell Buckley enters Year 2 as head coach.
• Mississippi Valley State quarterback: Joshua Brown is Mississippi Valley State’s most experienced returning passer. He had no meaningful passing sample in 2025.
• Sacramento St: Alonzo Carter enters Year 1 as head coach. 4 starters return—1 on offense and 3 on defense.
• Sacramento St quarterback: Carson Conklin is projected to start for Sacramento St. Last season at Fresno St, he threw for 354 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The scoring trend: The Hornets have won four straight home openers while averaging 43.3 points. Mississippi Valley State trailed 37-0 at halftime in its Week 0 loss, so Sacramento State’s favorite calendar spot meets the Delta Devils’ worst recent half.
• The turnover test: Mississippi Valley State’s only Week 0 touchdown was a 95-yard pick-six, while Sacramento State scored on a fumble return in its opener. Both teams already showed that the defense may be the fastest route to points.
• A first real test at quarterback: Joshua Brown is Miss Valley St’s most experienced returning passer. He enters Week 1 without a meaningful 2025 passing sample. Sacramento St finished last season with 38 sacks. Miss Valley St returns no listed starting offensive linemen, making protection the immediate question.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.