Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 8:00 PM CT
Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium
TV: ESPN+
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): NMSU -28.5
Over/under: 51.5

The setup

This first meeting comes with matching Week 0 bruises: New Mexico State lost 34-17 at Florida State, while Mercyhurst lost 43-10 at Youngstown State. Somebody's 0 has to go, but neither team arrives pretending the opener went well.

What I’m watching

Both teams have current film now. Mercyhurst lost 43-10 to Youngstown State in Week 0, with Alex Gevaudan completing 18 of 31 for 212 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. New Mexico St lost 34-17 to Florida State in Week 0, with Trey Hedden completing 26 of 42 for 272 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. The first question is whether Mercyhurst can clean up its 2 turnovers; that is a more immediate concern than any 2025 ranking.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: Mercyhurst's Thomas Sydeski is in Year 1; New Mexico St's Tony Sanchez is in Year 3. New Mexico St returns 9 starters—3 on offense and 6 on defense. New Mexico St also kept its head coach and offensive coordinator, so its 2025 offensive habits should carry more weight in this matchup.
• The favorite's run-game test: New Mexico St averaged only 77.3 rushing yards per game last season. Against Mercyhurst, winning is expected; showing a more dependable run game would be the more useful result. The offense brings back 3 starters.
• The quarterback matchup: Alex Gevaudan led Mercyhurst's passing in Week 0 (18 of 31 for 212 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT); Trey Hedden led New Mexico St's passing in Week 0 (26 of 42 for 272 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT). Neither passer should need to win the game alone; avoiding the first bad turnover is the more important opening-night test.

Three quick analysis points

• The quarterback angle: Trey Hedden threw for 272 yards and two touchdowns at Florida State, the most yards by an Aggies quarterback in a season opener since 2017. His top two receivers combined for 174 yards, the best two-man total anywhere in Week 0.
• The roster reset: The Aggies ran for only 47 yards at Florida State. That is jarring because transfer James Jones averaged 9.8 yards per carry at Delaware State last year; he alone had six 100-yard games, while New Mexico State's entire team reached 100 only twice.
• The turnover test: New Mexico State has forced a turnover in 17 straight games and intercepted a pass in 13 of them. For an offense trying to recover from a 33-point Week 0 loss, one bad throw can become the Aggies' easiest touchdown setup.

How the game is decided

Both teams have already shown their first strengths and first problems. The winner will be the one that fixes its Week 0 weakness without abandoning what worked; turnovers and failed third downs will reveal which staff made the better one-week adjustment.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.