Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 7:00 PM CT
Location: Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium
TV: BTN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): NU -12.5
Over/under: 46.5

The setup

Northwestern is favored by 12.5. S Dakota St already has a full 2026 game on film, creating an advantage in live reps but also giving the opponent real tape to study.

What I’m watching

S Dakota St beat Stetson 70-7 in Week 0, with Chase Mason completing 5 of 10 for 157 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. S Dakota St already established the run, finishing with 393 rushing yards. Northwestern allowed 136.3 rushing yards per game in 2025, which makes this a more meaningful follow-up test.

Personnel snapshot

• What carries over for the FBS team: S Dakota St’s Dan Jackson is in Year 2; Northwestern’s David Braun is in Year 4. Northwestern returns 10 starters—5 on offense and 5 on defense.
• The depth advantage has to show: Northwestern should have the deeper roster, but S Dakota St’s path is to force the new or lightly used starters into an uncomfortable first half.
• Familiarity versus a new offense: Chase Mason led S Dakota St’s passing in Week 0 (5 of 10 for 157 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT); Aidan Chiles is the projected starter for Northwestern (1,392 yards, 10 TD and 3 INT at Michigan St in 2025). Chase Mason was already on S Dakota St’s roster last season; Northwestern is asking its quarterback to translate past production into a new offense immediately.

Three quick analysis points

• S Dakota St already cleared 500 yards: S Dakota St gained 628 yards in Week 0—235 passing and 393 rushing. That is a much more useful early clue than a preseason projection.
• A low-risk test for Northwestern’s protection: Northwestern allowed a disruptive play on 14.7% of its snaps, No. 109 nationally. S Dakota St allowed 21.9 points per game at the FCS level last season. This is the right opener for Northwestern to show that weakness has been repaired; if it still cannot create easy offense, the concern carries into FBS play. Northwestern changed its offensive leadership and returns 5 starters on that side, so last year’s number is a warning or opportunity—not a guarantee.
• What S Dakota St must solve: Northwestern’s defense allowed 5.40 yards per rush play, No. 94 nationally. S Dakota St scored 29.1 points per game at the FCS level last season. S Dakota St needs to find one repeatable way to move the ball; isolated big plays will not be enough if most possessions end quickly. Northwestern kept the same head coach and DC, with 5 defensive starters returning.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.