Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 6:30 PM CT
Location: Davis Wade Stadium
TV: ESPNU
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): MSST -28.5
Over/under: 56.5

The setup

Mississippi State leads ULM 4-1-1, but the one Warhawks win came in Starkville in 1995. The upset has already happened in this exact building – it is just 31 years old.

Personnel snapshot

• UL Monroe: Bryant Vincent enters Year 3 as head coach. 4 starters return—3 on offense and 1 on defense. UL Monroe’s offense averaged 323.5 yards and 16.6 points per game last season.
• UL Monroe quarterback: Aidan Armenta returns as UL Monroe’s starting quarterback. Last season, he threw for 1,629 yards, 12 TD and 8 INT.
• Mississippi State: Jeff Lebby enters Year 3 as head coach. 8 starters return—2 on offense and 6 on defense. Key defenders back include Kalvin Dinkins, Zakari Tillman, and Kelley Jones. Mississippi State’s defense allowed 409.3 yards and 30.2 points per game last season.
• Mississippi State quarterback: Kamario Taylor is projected to start for Mississippi State. Last season, he threw for 388 yards, 4 TD and 1 INT.

Three quick analysis points

• The roster reset: Mississippi State added 61 new players: 25 four-year transfers, six junior-college transfers and 30 freshmen.
• The matchup wrinkle: The Bulldogs will wear the interlocking MSU helmet mark for the first time since 2003. The visual throwback arrives with one of the least familiar rosters in the country.
• The quarterback angle: ULM quarterback Aidan Armenta completed 65.0% with 11 touchdowns from a clean pocket, but 25.5% with three picks under pressure. Mississippi State ranked only 134th in pass rush grade, making pressure the upgrade that can flip the entire quarterback profile.

Prediction

I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.