Kickoff: Saturday, September 5 at 11:30 AM CT
Location: Ohio Stadium
TV: BTN
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): OSU -50.5
Over/under: 56.5

The setup

Ohio State has won 26 straight season openers. Ball State is attempting to stop a streak older than every player on both rosters.

What I’m watching

The biggest test is whether Ball State can move the ball without living in third-and-long. Their offense ranked No. 135 nationally at 4.4 yards each time it snapped the ball in 2025; Ohio State’s defense ranked No. 1 and allowed only 4.5. Can the Buckeyes be anywhere near that dominant again after losing key players to the NFL?

Personnel snapshot

• The offensive continuity edge: Ball State’s Mike Uremovich is in Year 2; Ohio State’s Ryan Day is in Year 8. Overall continuity is close, but Ohio State’s offense is more settled: 8 starters back compared with 5 for Ball State.
• The first-down matchup: Ball State averaged 131.8 rushing yards per game last season; Ohio State allowed 89.4. With 5 offensive starters back against 3 returning defensive starters, that first-down matchup should decide how much of the playbook remains available.
• The quarterback experience gap: Ball State has officially named Keldric Luster the starter (no meaningful 2025 passing sample); Julian Sayin returns as Ohio State’s starter (3,323 yards, 31 TD and 6 INT in 2025). Ohio State has the clear edge in recent passing reps; Ball State enters with much more uncertainty at the position.

Three quick analysis points

• The history: The Buckeyes are 39-1 against current MAC teams and unbeaten in the last 39 such games. This is the first Ball State-Ohio State meeting, but history has already assigned the conference matchup a shape.
• The scoring trend: Ryan Day is 25-1 in September and 21-1 in regular-season nonconference games. His eight opener wins have come by an average of 25.4 points.
• The turnover test: Ball State returns only two defensive starters, while Julian Sayin produced 13 touchdowns and one interception on deep throws last year. A new defense is being asked to cover the exact part of the field Ohio State uses as a fast-forward button.

How the game is decided

It’s hard to see how Ball State keeps it close. Can the Buckeyes avoid looking ahead to Texas next week?

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.