Location: Memorial Stadium — Columbia, Missouri
Kickoff: Thursday, September 3 at 8 p.m. ET on SEC Network
DraftKings line (Aug. 30): Missouri -54.5
Over/under: 60.5

The Setup

Missouri and Arkansas-Pine Bluff have never met. The Golden Lions become the Tigers’ 162nd different opponent, and the first chapter arrives during Memorial Stadium’s centennial celebration.

What I’m Watching

The early question is whether Missouri’s rebuilt defense lets Arkansas-Pine Bluff hang around. The Golden Lions averaged 19.5 points per game last season. Missouri allowed 19.1 but returns only two defensive starters. One long drive or short-field touchdown can create pressure, but only if the underdog avoids giving those points right back.

Personnel Snapshot

Arkansas-Pine Bluff: Alonzo Hampton enters Year 4 as head coach.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff quarterback: Garrison Davis is the most experienced returning passer, although he threw for only 86 yards last season.

Missouri: Eli Drinkwitz enters Year 7 with eight returning starters—six on offense and two on defense. The offense averaged 416.3 yards and 32.8 points per game.

Missouri quarterback: Austin Simmons is projected to start after throwing for 680 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions at Ole Miss.

Three Quick Analysis Points

1. The recent trend: Missouri is 29-10 since 2023, tied for the 12th-best record in the country over that span. The No. 25 ranking comes with a three-year résumé.

2. The night-game streak: The Tigers have won 11 straight home night games and 13 consecutive regular-season night games anywhere. Arkansas-Pine Bluff is opening in Missouri’s most comfortable window.

3. The protection test: Missouri ranked No. 18 nationally at creating sacks and other disruptive plays. Arkansas-Pine Bluff returns no listed starting offensive linemen, making protection the immediate concern.

How the Game Is Decided

Arkansas-Pine Bluff has to test the rebuilt defense immediately and make its first good drive count. Missouri should be fine if it tackles cleanly and avoids short fields, but early mistakes are how a heavy favorite gives an underdog belief. Ahmad Hardy is out and still recovering after suffering a gunshot wound this offseason, but Missouri should be fine without him and needs him healthy for SEC play.

Prediction

I make my final predictions on TikTok, YouTube, Instagram and Facebook at @uthinkuknowsports.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.