This feels like the year USC has to become more than interesting.
The Trojans have had moments under Lincoln Riley. They had the 11-3 season in 2022. They had Caleb Williams. They had the kind of offense that made USC feel dangerous again.
But the last three years have not matched the expectation.
USC has been stuck in that seven-to-nine-win range, which is not what people expected when Riley left Oklahoma for Los Angeles. The Trojans did not hire him to be pretty good. They hired him to put USC back in the national championship conversation.
Now, entering year five, the roster looks built for that kind of jump.
USC went 8-4 last season and 7-2 in the Big Ten. The Trojans averaged 35.8 points per game and 465 yards per game. They bring back more returning starters (15) than anyone in the country. They have a veteran quarterback. They have both top running backs back. They return the entire offensive line.
If USC is going to become elite under Riley, this feels like the year.
That does not mean it will be easy.
The schedule gets nasty.
But the roster is good enough to make this the most important season of Riley’s USC tenure.
HEAD COACH
- Lincoln Riley, entering year five at USC
- USC went 8-4 last season.
- The Trojans finished 7-2 in the Big Ten.
- Riley is 35-18 at USC.
- Riley is 90-28 as a college head coach.
This is not a “hot seat” year in the obvious sense.
Riley is too good of a coach for that.
But the pressure is absolutely building.
That is what happens when you are Lincoln Riley at USC. The expectations are different. The brand is different. The recruiting ceiling is different. The money is different. The spotlight is different.
Winning eight or nine games is not enough forever.
At some point, USC has to become a real Big Ten title contender.
The offense was already good enough last season. The Trojans averaged 35.8 points per game, which ranked near the top of the country. They averaged 465 yards per game, one of the best marks nationally. They were almost perfectly balanced, basically 50/50 run and pass.
That is what makes this team so interesting.
This is not just a throw-it-every-down Riley offense anymore. USC can run it. USC can throw it. USC can stress defenses in multiple ways.
The defense was better than some of Riley’s earlier USC teams too, allowing 23 points per game and 350 yards per game.
But better is not the same as good enough.
If USC wants to get into the top tier of the Big Ten, the defense still has to take another step.
That is the whole season.
The offense should be dangerous.
The defense has to become dependable.
QUARTERBACK
The quarterback is Jayden Maiava.
And this is where USC’s season really starts.
Maiava is 12-5 as a starter at USC. Last season, he completed 65% of his passes with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Those are good numbers.
But the details are where the conversation gets more complicated.
Maiava threw an interception in eight of his final 10 games last season. Over that closing 10-game stretch, he had 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
That has to be cleaner.
The talent is obvious. The arm is obvious. The deep ball is obvious. Maiava had the most deep-ball completions in the country last season with 39 completions of 20-plus air yards, according to PFF. He also ranked among the best nationally in deep-ball completion percentage.
That is a real weapon.
Not many quarterbacks can stretch the field like that.
But the pressure numbers matter too.
Maiava had the ninth-most pass attempts under pressure in the country, with pressure on about 41.9% of his dropbacks. That is too many. USC has to protect him better, especially with the entire offensive line coming back.
The good news is that the line should be better.
The bad news is that Maiava still has to make better decisions even when things are not perfect.
That is the next step.
If Maiava cuts down the interceptions and keeps the explosive passing game, USC can have one of the best offenses in the country.
If the late-season turnover trend continues, the Trojans will lose games they should not lose.
THE REST OF THE OFFENSE
There may not be a more experienced offense in college football.
That is not an exaggeration.
USC brings back almost everything.
The running back room should be a strength with King Miller and Waymond Jordan both returning. Miller rushed for 972 yards and eight touchdowns last season. Jordan added 576 yards and five touchdowns.
That gives USC two proven backs.
That matters because the Trojans were balanced last year, and they should be balanced again. Riley’s offense will always be known for quarterback play and explosive passing, but this team has enough in the backfield to punish defenses that play too light.
The receiver room is the bigger question.
Makai Lemon is gone to the NFL, and that is a major loss. He was a first-round type of player and one of the most dangerous pieces in the offense.
Now USC needs someone else to become the lead receiver.
Tanook Hines is the obvious returning name after catching 34 passes last season. He has a real chance to become a much bigger part of the offense.
The top newcomer to watch is Mark Bowman, a former five-star talent who could become one of the breakout players on the roster.
USC does not lack talent at receiver.
It just has to turn talent into production.
The offensive line is the part that should make USC fans feel best.
Alani Noa, Kilian O’Connor, Elijah Paige, Tobias Raymond and Justin Tauanuu are all part of a loaded returning group up front. In 2023, this unit had a ton of career starts. In 2024, USC had to rebuild it. Now the Trojans get continuity.
That is huge.
If the line takes a step, everything else works better.
Maiava gets cleaner pockets. The run game gets better lanes. The deep passing game gets more time to develop. The defense gets more rest.
This offense has everything it needs.
Now it has to be elite when the schedule gets real.
DEFENSE
The defense is why this season is fascinating.
USC was not terrible defensively last year.
The Trojans allowed 23 points per game and 350 yards per game, which is respectable. That is a long way from the worst of the Riley era.
But respectable is not enough to win the Big Ten.
USC still gave up too much in the biggest games. Oregon scored 42. Notre Dame scored 34. Illinois gave the Trojans problems too.
That is the difference between being good and being a playoff threat.
The good news is that USC has experience back.
Jide Abasiri returns up front. Kameryn Crawford and Braylan Shelby give the Trojans pass-rush pieces on the edge. Desman Stephens is back at linebacker. Christian Pierce and Marcelles Williams are back in the secondary.
That is a solid defensive core.
The question is whether USC has enough true difference-makers.
The Trojans have players. They have experience. They have depth. But they need someone on that defense to become a star. They need a pass rusher who changes games. They need a linebacker who cleans things up. They need defensive backs who can hold up against the best receivers in the league.
The defensive staff also matters.
With Gary Patterson involved, USC should be better organized. Patterson has been one of the best defensive minds in college football for a long time. If he can help bring more structure and consistency, this defense can improve quickly.
That is what USC needs.
Not just more talent.
More consistency.
More stops.
More toughness in the biggest games.
If the defense jumps from decent to good, USC becomes dangerous.
If it stays around the same level, the Trojans are probably still stuck in the eight-to-nine-win conversation.
SCHEDULE
The schedule gives USC a chance to start fast.
The Trojans open with three straight home games against San Jose State, Fresno State and Louisiana. Then they go all the way across the country to play Rutgers on Sept. 19.
USC should start 4-0.
That does not mean Rutgers is automatic. Cross-country travel is real, and Rutgers has several big-name home games this season. But USC has the better roster and should win that game.
Then everything changes.
Oregon comes to Los Angeles on Sept. 26.
One week later, Washington comes to USC on Oct. 3.
Those are measuring-stick games.
If USC is really going to be a top-tier Big Ten team, it has to win at least one of those and probably needs to defend home field in both.
Then the Trojans go to Penn State on Oct. 10.
That means USC plays seven straight games before its first bye.
That is a grind.
After the bye, USC goes to Wisconsin on Oct. 24, then hosts Ohio State on Halloween.
Then comes another bye before a trip to Indiana on Nov. 14.
That three-game stretch — at Wisconsin, Ohio State, at Indiana — is brutal.
It will define the season.
After that, USC hosts Maryland on Nov. 21 and finishes at UCLA on Nov. 28.
There are some weird Big Ten schedule notes here too.
USC has not been to Indiana since 1981. The Trojans have never hosted Maryland. The Rutgers trip is one of the longest road trips in the country.
That is life in the new Big Ten.
The key is getting through the first seven games in good shape.
If USC is 6-1 going into the first bye, everything is on the table.
If the Trojans stumble early, the back half could get uncomfortable fast.
OUTLOOK
This is the year.
That does not mean USC has to win the national championship.
But this is the year USC has to look like the program it is supposed to be under Lincoln Riley.
The pieces are there.
Jayden Maiava is experienced. King Miller and Waymond Jordan are back. The offensive line returns basically intact. The roster has more returning starters than anyone in the country. The defense has enough experience to improve. The schedule gives USC a manageable start before the brutal middle stretch.
The best-case scenario is that Maiava cuts down the interceptions, the offensive line becomes one of the best in the Big Ten, Miller and Jordan keep the offense balanced, Tanook Hines and Mark Bowman help replace Makai Lemon, and the defense makes a real jump under Patterson.
If that happens, USC can compete for the Big Ten title.
The worst-case scenario is that Maiava keeps turning it over, the receiver room does not replace Lemon quickly enough, and the defense is still not good enough against the best teams on the schedule.
If that happens, USC could be another eight- or nine-win team.
That would not be enough.
Not this year.
Not with this roster.
The talent is there.
The experience is there.
The pressure is there.
Now USC has to turn all of that into something bigger than another good-but-not-great season.
Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.