Is NC State THE sleeper team in the ACC?

I kind of think it might be.

The Wolfpack went 8-5 last season, finished 4-4 in the ACC, bring back their quarterback, have an established head coach, added offensive help in the transfer portal, and somehow avoided both Miami and SMU on the schedule.

That matters.

Because after Miami, the ACC feels pretty open. Somebody is going to get into that ACC Championship Game with a chance to either knock off Miami or take advantage if the Hurricanes stumble.

And NC State is one of those teams that feels like it is always hanging around.

Not always elite. Not always flashy. But annoying. Tough. Competitive. The kind of team nobody really wants to play.

Now the question is whether Dave Doeren can finally get the Wolfpack over the hump.

HEAD COACH:

• Dave Doeren, entering year 14 at NC State
• Doeren is 95-70 with the Wolfpack.
• NC State went 8-5 last season and 4-4 in the ACC.
• The Wolfpack have averaged eight wins per year over the last six seasons.
• NC State has never won 10 games under Doeren.

NC State feels like one of those programs where you can almost guess the record before the season starts.

Seven and five. Eight and five. Maybe nine wins if things break right.

That is not meant as an insult. It is actually pretty hard to be that steady for that long. Doeren has kept NC State respectable for more than a decade, and the Wolfpack are rarely an easy out.

But there is also a ceiling question.

At some point, if you are NC State, you want more than respectable. You want that season where everything finally clicks. You want the year where you are not just bothering the top teams in the ACC but actually becoming one of them.

This could be that kind of opportunity.

The ACC does not have the old version of Clemson sitting on top of it. Miami looks like the clear favorite, but behind the Hurricanes, there is room.

Louisville has quarterback questions. Duke has quarterback questions. Georgia Tech has quarterback questions. Florida State is trying to get off the mat. Clemson is trying to prove it is still Clemson.

So why not NC State?

The Wolfpack have the quarterback.

That gives them a chance.

QUARTERBACK:

This is where the optimism starts.

CJ Bailey is back, and that is the biggest reason to believe NC State can make noise.

Bailey threw for more than 3,000 yards last season with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also ran for 215 yards and six touchdowns, so he can move when things break down.

If the play is not perfect, he can create. If the pass rush gets home, he can escape. If NC State needs him to pick up a first down with his legs, he can do that.

But the next step is obvious.

Bailey has to play better against the best teams.

Against Notre Dame and Miami last year, he went 17-of-30 in both games. That sounds fine on the surface. It is not like he was completely lost.

The problem is what came with it.

In those two games, Bailey had one touchdown and five interceptions.

That cannot happen if NC State wants to become a real ACC contender.

And yes, a lot of quarterbacks struggled against Notre Dame and Miami. Those were two of the best teams in the country. But that is kind of the point. If NC State wants to be in that conversation, Bailey has to be good against those teams, not just against the middle of the schedule.

The other thing that jumps off the page is the home-road split.

Bailey threw 16 touchdowns and one interception at home.

On the road, he threw nine touchdowns and eight interceptions.

If NC State is going to take the next step, Bailey has to travel better. He cannot be one quarterback in Raleigh and another quarterback away from home.

The good news is that Bailey has one trait that really stands out.

He is an elite deep-ball passer.

Bailey completed 51% of his throws of 20-plus air yards last season, with 11 touchdowns and only one interception. That was the 11th-best deep-ball completion percentage nationally.

That is big-time stuff.

This was not dink-and-dunk yardage. These were throws that traveled down the field. If Bailey can keep hitting explosive passes, NC State has a path to being much more dangerous offensively.

But the equation is pretty simple.

If Bailey protects the ball on the road and against top teams, NC State can be a problem.

If he repeats the Miami/Notre Dame version too often, the Wolfpack probably stay in that familiar eight-win range.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense has enough pieces to be interesting.

But there are some real questions too.

The biggest loss is Hollywood Smothers, who transferred to Texas. Smothers was probably NC State’s best playmaker outside of Bailey, and he became one of the biggest running back names in the transfer portal.

You do not just shrug that off.

But there is some context.

Smothers was not exactly getting 25 carries every week late in the season. He only had one game with more than 12 carries in October and November, and that came against Florida State.

So while losing him hurts, NC State did have other backs involved.

Duke Scott is probably the name to know now. He had 106 carries for almost 600 yards and four touchdowns last season. If he becomes the starting back, he has enough experience to make the transition less scary.

Still, the run game has to improve.

NC State ranked 83rd nationally in rushing yards per game last season. That is not good enough, especially if the goal is to take pressure off Bailey.

If the Wolfpack can run the ball, everything opens up.

Bailey gets better looks. The deep shots become more dangerous. The offense is not asking him to win every game by himself.

The offensive line should help.

NC State brings back Teague Anderson, Kamen Smith and Spike Sowells up front. The Wolfpack also added offensive line help in transfers from Miami and East Carolina.

That is important because this offense probably needs to be more balanced.

At receiver, Keenan Jackson is back. He has 40 career catches, so there is at least some experience there.

The transfer to watch is Victor Snow from Buffalo. He caught 62 passes for 815 yards and eight touchdowns last season. He also had five catches for 67 yards and a touchdown against Minnesota, so he has at least shown he can make plays against a power-conference opponent.

That does not automatically mean he becomes a star in the ACC.

But it gives Bailey another target.

NC State also added Joshisa Trader from Miami, who had 13 catches last season. That is another upside swing at receiver.

So the offense is not loaded with household names, but it has a quarterback, some offensive line experience, a possible lead back, and a couple of interesting receivers.

That is enough to work with.

The question is whether it is enough to win big.

DEFENSE

This is the side of the ball that has to change.

NC State was not good enough defensively last season.

The Wolfpack allowed more than 28 points per game and gave up well over 400 yards per game. That is not a championship-level formula.

You can survive some of that if Bailey is throwing touchdowns and the offense is rolling.

But if the offense hits a lull, that defense is not giving you enough margin for error.

And now there is turnover.

NC State returns only three defensive starters, and all of them are in the secondary: Assad Brown, Jackson Vick and Ronnie Royal.

That is a useful place to have experience, but there is also a big warning sign here.

NC State does not have any returning All-ACC players, not even honorable mention.

That does not mean the defense cannot improve. It just means the Wolfpack do not have many proven stars on that side of the ball.

The transfer portal has to help.

Raul Aguirre comes in from Miami. Dakhari Nelson comes in from Penn State. And Harvey Dyson arrives from Tulane after putting up eight sacks last season.

Dyson might be the most important one.

If NC State can generate more pressure, the whole defense looks different. Pressure helps the secondary. Pressure creates turnovers. Pressure gets the defense off the field.

And that is what NC State needs.

The Wolfpack do not have to become a top-10 defense overnight. But they cannot be outside the top 80 in major defensive categories again and expect to compete for the ACC.

If this team is going to surprise people, the defense has to stop being the thing that holds it back.

SCHEDULE

This is where the NC State case gets really interesting.

The schedule sets up pretty well.

It starts in a weird way, with Virginia in a non-conference game in Brazil.

And I still do not love that this is a non-conference game.

Last year, the Virginia-NC State non-conference matchup actually mattered in the ACC tiebreaker picture. In a league that ended with a five-way tie and sent Duke and Virginia to the title game, those kinds of scheduling quirks can matter.

Now they are doing it again.

Only this time, it is in Rio de Janeiro.

That is strange. That is a big trip. And both coaching staffs have to figure out how to handle something most college football coaches have never dealt with.

But at least there is no real travel advantage. Both teams have to go.

After that, NC State gets Richmond, goes to Vanderbilt, and hosts App State.

The Vanderbilt game is the only true road game before late October.

That is huge.

The Wolfpack host Louisville on Oct. 3, host Wake Forest on Oct. 10, then get a bye before the long trip to Stanford on Oct. 23.

That Stanford trip is the one big ACC travel spot. It is a Friday game, it is across the country, and it comes after the bye.

If you have to go to California, that is probably the way you want it to happen.

After Stanford, NC State hosts Cal, Duke and Syracuse.

Then the season ends with two road games: at Florida State and at North Carolina.

So look at the setup.

Before the final two weeks, NC State has only played two true road games: Vanderbilt and Stanford.

That is very manageable.

The Wolfpack also avoid Miami and SMU.

That is massive.

Miami is the clear favorite in the ACC. SMU should be right in that next group. Not playing either one gives NC State a real scheduling advantage.

Now, the schedule is not easy.

Louisville is dangerous. Duke is the defending ACC champion. Florida State is still Florida State. North Carolina is a rivalry game. Stanford is a long trip.

But compared to some other ACC teams, NC State should feel pretty good.

The schedule gives the Wolfpack a chance to be right in the mix entering the final two weeks.

Then they have to prove it on the road.

OUTLOOK

I am talking myself into NC State a little bit.

And that makes me nervous, because NC State has been this kind of team before.

You look at the roster. You look at the quarterback. You look at the schedule. You look at the experience on the staff. And you say, “This might be the year.”

Then the Wolfpack go 8-5.

That is the history you are fighting against here.

But there is a real case.

CJ Bailey is back. He throws a beautiful deep ball. The offensive line has experience. There are enough transfer pieces at receiver to give the passing game a chance. The schedule avoids Miami and SMU. The Wolfpack do not have many true road games until late.

That is the optimistic view.

The concern is pretty obvious too.

Bailey has to be better away from home. The run game has to replace Hollywood Smothers. The defense has to improve a lot. And NC State needs some of these transfers to be more than just names on a depth chart.

The best-case scenario is that Bailey becomes one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC, the deep passing game stays explosive, Duke Scott gives NC State a steady run game, Victor Snow becomes a go-to ACC receiver, and the defense improves enough to keep the Wolfpack in the conference race.

If that happens, NC State can be one of the surprise teams in the league.

The worst-case scenario is that Bailey still struggles in the biggest games, the run game misses Smothers, the defense remains too leaky, and NC State ends up right back where it usually is.

Seven or eight wins. Competitive, but not special.

NC State is dangerous.

I am not ready to pick the Wolfpack to win the ACC, but I absolutely think they can be in that next tier behind Miami.

And with this schedule, if Bailey takes the next step, NC State could still be playing meaningful ACC football deep into November.

That is the opportunity.

Now the Wolfpack have to do something they have not done under Dave Doeren.

Get over the hump.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.