Did anyone ever think it could get this bad at Florida State?

This is the program of Bobby Bowden, national titles, top-five finishes, top-10 finishes, NFL players everywhere and that feeling that the Seminoles were always supposed to matter.

And it was not that long ago that Mike Norvell had Florida State unbeaten in the regular season. The Noles were 13-0, had the Jordan Travis injury, got left out of the College Football Playoff, got blasted by Georgia in the Orange Bowl, and most people still assumed they would be fine.

Instead?

Florida State is 7-17 over the last two seasons.

Even worse, the Noles are 3-13 in ACC play during that stretch.

Take the Florida State logo off the helmet for a second. If you did not know the brand, and I just told you a team was 3-13 in conference play over two seasons, would you be treating that team like a sleeping giant?

Probably not.

That is what makes this season so important.

Florida State still has the name. It still has the history. It still has the recruiting base. College football is better when the Seminoles are good.

But right now, this program has to prove it is more than a logo.

HEAD COACH:

• Mike Norvell, entering year seven at Florida State
• Norvell is 38-34 at FSU.
• Florida State went 5-7 last season.
• The Noles are 7-17 over the last two seasons.
• Florida State is 3-13 in ACC play over the last two years.

This feels like a pressure-cooker season for Mike Norvell.

And honestly, I do not even know how he sits down with how hot that seat has to be.

The weird thing with Norvell is that he has taken Florida State to highs the program had not seen in years. That undefeated regular season was real. The national conversation was real. The feeling that Florida State was “back” was real.

But now he has also taken Florida State to lows that feel almost impossible for this program.

That is the problem.

You can sell a rebuild for a while. You can sell patience. You can sell portal turnover. You can sell injuries. You can sell needing time.

But year seven is not year two.

At some point, Florida State has to look like Florida State again.

I do not think the standard has to be national title or bust this year. That would be unfair. But if this team is not in the eight- or nine-win range, it is hard to imagine the administration and fan base just shrugging and saying, “Let’s keep waiting.”

This feels like the year where Norvell either stabilizes the program or Florida State starts looking for the next answer.

QUARTERBACK:

The new quarterback is Ashton Daniels, and he has already been named the starter.

Daniels comes over after stops at Stanford and Auburn, and he replaces Tommy Castellanos, who had transferred in from Boston College, made the shirts about Alabama and then watched the season fall apart after that opening win.

Florida State beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa last year, and for about five minutes everybody thought the Noles were back.

Then they were not.

Now Daniels takes over an offense that badly needs stability.

At Auburn last season, Daniels completed 56% of his passes for 797 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He also started the Iron Bowl, which is about as pressurized as it gets in college football. Against Alabama, he went 18-of-39 for 259 yards, one touchdown and one interception.

That game showed some good and some bad.

The good is that Daniels has played in big spots. He has been in real environments. He is not going to walk into ACC stadiums and be shocked by the moment.

The concern is the passing profile.

Daniels has not been a quarterback who consistently attacks deep. In the Iron Bowl, he was 5-of-16 on throws of 20-plus air yards. He had production on those throws, but that was still not a huge part of who he has been.

That matters because Florida State needs more than five-yard throws and quarterback runs.

Daniels can move. He has more than 1,400 career rushing yards, and that part of his game is important. Castellanos was Florida State’s leading rusher last year, so the quarterback run game may still be a major part of what this offense is.

But the Noles need Daniels to be more than a runner who occasionally throws.

They need him to control the offense, protect the ball and make defenses respect the field.

The other part of this is Tim Harris.

Harris takes over the offense after Gus Malzahn retired, and it will be interesting to see how much the offense changes. Last year, Castellanos had a much larger percentage of his throws come off play action than Daniels did at Auburn.

That is something to watch.

Does Florida State lean into play action to help Daniels? Does it use his legs to create easier throws? Does it try to become a more controlled offense after finishing near the bottom of the country in time of possession?

That may decide whether this offense becomes respectable or stays frustrating.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The offense basically starts with two returning receivers: Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy.

Robinson coming back is massive.

He was a first-team All-ACC player last season after catching 56 passes for 1,081 yards and six touchdowns. He is also the only returning All-ACC player on Florida State’s roster.

In this era of college football, that matters.

Players are basically on one-year contracts now. If you have a star, he can go to the NFL, he can transfer, or he can find a better NIL situation somewhere else. So the fact that Robinson is back gives Florida State at least one clear offensive building block.

Danzy is also back after catching 27 passes and three touchdowns last season.

That is a decent starting point at receiver.

But the rest of the offense is full of questions.

Florida State had 33 scholarship players enter the transfer portal, and the offensive line has been completely rebuilt. The Noles brought in five new offensive linemen with 118 combined career starts.

That sounds good, and it might be good.

But it also tells you how much had to be fixed.

The offensive line is not just adding a piece or two. It is being remade.

Florida State did run the ball well statistically last season, ranking near the top nationally in rushing yards per game, but that number needs context. Castellanos was the leading rusher. So if you are asking whether the run game was a true, traditional, reliable run game, I am not sure the answer is yes.

That brings us to Ousmane Kromah, who should have a chance to be a major part of the offense.

If Florida State can run the ball with the running backs and not just the quarterback, that changes everything. It keeps Daniels out of obvious passing downs. It helps the new offensive line. It gives the defense a chance to rest.

And that last part is important because Florida State was 113th in time of possession.

That is brutal.

The Noles could not control games. They could not put together long drives. They could not consistently finish in the red zone either, ranking 92nd in red zone scoring.

That is how a season falls apart.

It is not just one thing. It is all of it together.

You cannot stay on the field. You cannot finish drives. You cannot protect your defense. Then the defense gets exposed, and the whole thing snowballs.

That is what Florida State has to stop this year.

DEFENSE

The defense has a few pieces back, but this group also has a lot to prove.

The key returning names are Daniel Lyons on the defensive line, Blake Nicholson at linebacker, and defensive backs Ashlynd Barker and Ja’Bril Rawls.

That is not nothing.

But it is not enough by itself.

Florida State needed help in the transfer portal, especially in the front seven, and the Noles added some players who should matter right away.

Rylan Kennedy comes in from Texas A&M as a pass rusher. Chris Jones comes in from Southern Miss after putting up 133 tackles and 3.5 sacks last season.

Those guys have to make an impact.

Because Florida State’s defense was not just dealing with normal problems last year. The red zone defense was a disaster. Opponents scored on 88% of their red zone trips, and Florida State ranked 109th nationally in red zone defense.

That is the kind of number that kills you.

It is one thing to give up yards. Everybody gives up yards now. College football is built for offense.

But once the opponent gets close, you have to find ways to force field goals, create negative plays or steal possessions.

Florida State did not do that enough.

The turnover margin was also a problem. The Noles were minus-0.5 in turnover margin per game, which ranked near the bottom nationally.

Again, this is how bad teams lose close games.

You lose the turnover battle. You fail in the red zone. You cannot stay on the field offensively. You put your defense in bad spots.

Suddenly, the helmet does not matter.

The other team does not care that you are Florida State.

SCHEDULE

The schedule gives Florida State a chance early, but it also gives the Noles a chance to spiral quickly.

That is the scary part.

Florida State plays four of its first five games at home, which is a real advantage. The Noles open with New Mexico State, then host SMU on Labor Day night.

That SMU game is huge.

It is another standalone-type spot for Florida State, and we have seen those go badly before. If Florida State wins that game, there is some real early momentum. If the Noles lose it, the pressure immediately gets louder.

Then comes the trip to Alabama.

And let’s be honest: Alabama is going to remember what happened last year.

Florida State beat Alabama 31-17 in Tuscaloosa last season. Kalen DeBoer is not going to let his team forget that. The crowd is not going to forget that. That place is going to be nasty.

After Alabama, Florida State gets Central Arkansas and Virginia at home.

The Virginia game matters because that was where things started to go sideways last year. Florida State lost on a Friday night, and after that, the season never really recovered.

Then comes the meat of the schedule.

Florida State goes to Louisville on a Friday night, then goes to Miami eight days later.

That is a brutal two-game road stretch.

The Miami game is always big, but it would be great for college football if Florida State-Miami felt like it did in the early 2000s again. Right now, Miami is the program expecting to compete for the ACC and the playoff. Florida State is trying to prove it is not broken.

That is a very different dynamic than what this rivalry used to be.

The good news is Florida State gets a bye before hosting Clemson.

That helps.

After Clemson, the Noles host Boston College, go to Pitt, host NC State, and then finish with Florida in Tallahassee.

The schedule is not impossible.

But it is dangerous.

If Florida State beats New Mexico State and then loses to SMU and Alabama, this could be a 1-2 team by the middle of September. And at that point, with Louisville, Miami, Clemson, Pitt and Florida still ahead, things could get ugly fast.

On the other hand, if Florida State starts 2-0 and goes to Alabama with confidence, maybe the whole conversation changes.

That is why the early games are massive.

Florida State also plays eight of its 12 games in the state of Florida, which helps. The travel is not terrible. The schedule gives the Noles chances.

But the margin for error does not feel big.

Not with this roster. Not with this staff pressure. Not after the last two years.

OUTLOOK

I want Florida State to be good.

I really do.

College football is better when Florida State is one of the big boys. It is better when the Noles are in the top five or top 10. It is better when Florida State-Miami means something nationally. It is better when Doak Campbell Stadium feels like a place nobody wants to visit.

But wanting it does not make it true.

Right now, Florida State has to earn back the benefit of the doubt.

The Noles are 3-13 in ACC play over the last two seasons. That is the fact that sticks with me more than anything else.

Three and thirteen.

That is not a rough patch. That is not one weird year. That is a program that has been one of the worst teams in its own league for two seasons.

So when people say, “Well, it’s Florida State, they’ll figure it out,” I get it.

But will they figure it out under Mike Norvell?

That is the real question.

The best-case scenario is that Ashton Daniels gives Florida State steady quarterback play, Duce Robinson becomes one of the best receivers in the ACC again, the rebuilt offensive line comes together quickly, and the defense gets enough help from the portal to fix the red zone and turnover problems.

If that happens, Florida State can absolutely be a bowl team and maybe push toward that eight-win range.

The worst-case scenario is that Daniels is not the answer, the offensive line takes too long to gel, the red zone problems continue, and the early schedule puts Norvell in survival mode before October.

That is on the table too.

My gut?

Florida State will be better eventually.

There is too much history, too much passion and too much talent in the state of Florida for this program to stay down forever.

But I do not know if “eventually” starts this year.

And I do not know if it happens under Mike Norvell.

For now, Florida State is not a powerhouse.

It is a team trying to prove it is not lost.

And for a program with that logo, that history and that fan base, that is a very uncomfortable place to be.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.