Ask the average college football fan who won the ACC in 2025, and I bet a lot of people would say Miami.

And that’s funny, because Miami didn’t even play in the ACC Championship Game.

The Hurricanes made the national title game. They were the ACC team everyone remembers. But the actual ACC champion? That was Duke.

The Blue Devils beat Virginia, finished off one of the weirdest conference title runs you’ll ever see, and gave us the kind of season that is going to become a trivia question five or 10 years from now.

Duke went 9-5 overall, 6-2 in the ACC, won a strange five-team tiebreaker to get into the championship game, and then actually won the league.

That is a big deal.

But now comes the problem.

The quarterback who made it happen is gone. His top receiver is gone with him. And Duke has to prove last year was not just a weird, magical season that history slowly forgets.

HEAD COACH:

• Manny Diaz, entering year three at Duke
• Diaz is 18-9 through two seasons with the Blue Devils.
• Duke went 9-5 last season and won the ACC.
• Duke has only won 10 games once in school history, back in 2013.

I don’t think Manny Diaz gets enough credit for what he has already done at Duke.

When Mike Elko left for Texas A&M, it would have been easy for Duke to slide right back into being that program people only mention when basketball season starts. Instead, Diaz has gone 18-9 through two years and just won the ACC.

At Duke, that is pretty incredible.

This is a school that has only won 10 games once ever. So the funny part is, Duke won the ACC last year and still did not even get to 10 wins.

That tells you how strange the season was.

It also tells you why this year is so interesting. Duke is not some obvious powerhouse that everyone is going to pick to repeat. But this is also not the old Duke anymore.

Diaz has made Duke relevant.

Now he has to keep it there after losing the most important player on the roster.

QUARTERBACK:

This is the whole season.

Darian Mensah is gone. He transferred to Miami, and that changed the entire feel of the ACC offseason.

For a while, it looked like Duke might be loaded enough to make another run near the top of the conference. Then, suddenly, Miami needed a quarterback, Mensah ended up there, and Duke went from having one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the league to having a major question.

Mensah was not just productive. He was aggressive.

That is what made Duke fun. He was not afraid to throw the ball downfield. He challenged defenses. According to Pro Football Focus, Mensah threw 86 passes of 20-plus air yards last season. Duke did not just dink and dunk its way to an ACC title. The Blue Devils attacked people.

And then Miami did not just take Mensah.

The Hurricanes also got Cooper Barkate, one of Duke’s best receivers.

That makes it hurt even more.

Now Duke turns to Walker Eget, the transfer from San Jose State. And I actually like a lot about this move.

Eget threw for more than 3,000 yards last season. He had 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He was only sacked six times all year. He finished 11th nationally in passing yards per game at 277, just behind Mensah.

And here’s the part I really like: Eget also threw it deep.

He had 82 throws of 20-plus air yards, which ranked third nationally. Mensah was right there near the top too. So Duke did not just grab an experienced quarterback. It grabbed another guy who is comfortable stretching defenses.

That matters.

There are quarterbacks who live within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Eget is not that guy.

The concern is that he was not healthy in the spring. That opened the door for freshman Dan Mahan to get a lot of the meaningful reps. I still think the intention was probably for Eget to be the guy, but you do have to wonder whether Mahan gained real ground.

At the very least, it makes fall camp more interesting.

Duke does not need Eget or Mahan to be Mensah. That is probably unfair.

But Duke does need good quarterback play. Not average. Good.

Because the Blue Devils are not going to defend their ACC title if the quarterback spot becomes a weekly problem.

THE REST OF THE OFFENSE

The good news is Duke still has pieces.

The offense should be built around Nate Sheppard, and honestly, that might be the safest place for it to start.

Sheppard ran for more than 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns last season and earned second-team All-ACC honors. With Mensah gone, Duke probably needs Sheppard to be the foundation early.

That does not mean the Blue Devils should become boring. It just means they need to make life easier on whoever wins the quarterback job.

If Eget is the starter, give him a run game. If Mahan pushes him, give the young guy a run game. Either way, Sheppard has to be heavily involved.

Jeremiah Hasley is also back at tight end, and he should be a big part of the offense. He caught 40 passes and six touchdowns last season, including the game-winner in the ACC Championship Game.

That is the kind of player a new quarterback loves having.

Duke also brings back Matt Craycraft and Jordan Larsen on the offensive line, and the Blue Devils added Nick Del Grande from Coastal Carolina. Del Grande was a 35-game starter, so Duke has some real experience up front.

That matters a lot.

When you are replacing a quarterback, the offensive line can either make the transition manageable or make it impossible.

The other big name to know is Jared Richardson, the transfer receiver from Penn. He was an FCS All-American and has almost 200 career catches.

Can he step in and replace Barkate? Maybe. That is asking a lot, but Duke needs somebody in that receiver room to become the guy.

Because if defenses can crowd Sheppard, take away Hasley and force Duke’s receivers to win outside, somebody has to answer.

That is probably the biggest offensive question after quarterback.

DEFENSE

This is the part that is hard to ignore.

Duke won the ACC last year, but it did not exactly do it because the defense was dominant.

The Blue Devils had serious issues on that side of the ball. They were 96th in scoring defense. They were dead last nationally in passing yards allowed. Not last in the ACC. Not last among power-conference teams. Dead last in the entire country.

That is hard to do.

And that is also why I think there is room for improvement.

Duke almost has to be better against the pass because it is difficult to be worse. Manny Diaz and his staff clearly know this had to be a priority, and Duke does bring back some experience in the secondary.

The Blue Devils have Luke Mergott back, and they return three defensive backs in Landan Callahan, Kimari Robinson and DaShawn Stone. They also have multiple defensive backs with starting experience, which should help.

But this defense needs more than experience.

It needs results.

Last year, Duke survived a lot because the offense was good, the quarterback was careful with the ball, and the defense found ways to create enough big moments.

The turnover numbers were a huge part of it. Duke was top 10 in turnover margin per game and top six in interception percentage. That is great, but it is also the kind of thing that can swing the other way the next season.

Turnover luck does not always travel year to year.

That is the danger.

If Duke is not as good at protecting the ball without Mensah, and if the defense does not force as many mistakes, suddenly those close games can flip.

That is why the pass defense has to improve. Duke cannot just rely on turnovers again. It needs to actually get stops.

SCHEDULE

The schedule is one of the reasons I do not want to write Duke off.

There are some tricky games, but there are also some things that set up very nicely.

Duke opens at home against Tulane, and that is not some cupcake. Tulane was a playoff team last year, and that program is not scared of anybody. (Also, Tulane literally beat Duke last year.)

Then Duke goes to Illinois, which is another interesting test. After that, the Blue Devils come back home for Stanford and William & Mary.

So three of the first four games are at home.

That is big.

And in the new ACC, this next part matters even more: Duke avoids the Pacific Time Zone completely.

No trip to Cal. No trip to Stanford. No road game at SMU either.

That is gigantic.

In this version of the ACC, travel is a real part of the story. Some teams are going to have to fly across the country, adjust three time zones and play teams that are sleeping in their own beds.

Duke does not have to deal with that this year.

Stanford comes to Durham. Cal is not on the schedule. SMU is not on the schedule. Duke’s longest ACC road trip is Miami.

And look, Miami is a monster trip in terms of opponent. That is the defending national runner-up, and now the Hurricanes have Duke’s quarterback and Duke’s receiver.

That game is going to have some juice.

But geographically, Duke got a pretty favorable draw.

The Blue Devils also play eight of their 12 games in the state of North Carolina. That is wild. Between home games and road trips to NC State and Wake Forest, Duke is staying close to home more than most ACC teams could ever hope to.

That gives this team a chance.

The road games at NC State, Miami and Wake Forest will not be easy. Clemson at home is obviously a huge test. North Carolina is always interesting, especially with Bill Belichick in year two.

But the schedule is not impossible.

For a team replacing its quarterback, that matters.

OUTLOOK

I keep coming back to the same question.

Was Duke’s 2025 season the start of something, or was it the weird season people are going to forget?

Because I really do think that is how history may treat it.

People will remember Miami making the national title game. They will remember the Hurricanes. They will remember the big names. But years from now, someone is going to ask, “Who won the ACC in 2025?” and a lot of people are going to get it wrong.

The answer is Duke.

That deserves respect.

But respect does not win games in 2026.

Duke has to replace Mensah. It has to replace Barkate. It has to fix a pass defense that was the worst in the country. It has to prove the turnover margin was not just a one-year wave that disappears.

That is a lot.

But I do not think Duke is in trouble. I think Duke is interesting.

If Walker Eget is healthy and wins the job, he gives the Blue Devils a quarterback who can push the ball down the field. If Dan Mahan makes it a real competition, then maybe Duke has more at quarterback than people realize. Sheppard is a legitimate ACC running back. Hasley is a strong tight end. Richardson could be a major addition. The offensive line has real experience.

And the schedule gives Duke a chance to get comfortable.

So no, I am not picking Duke to repeat as ACC champion right now.

But I am not dismissing the Blue Devils either.

The best-case scenario is that Eget gives Duke solid-to-good quarterback play, Sheppard remains one of the best running backs in the ACC, Richardson helps replace Barkate, and the defense improves enough against the pass to keep Duke in the upper half of the league.

The worst-case scenario is that Mensah was the magic, the turnovers regress, and the pass defense still cannot get off the field.

My gut says Duke will be competitive. The Blue Devils will annoy people. They will probably ruin somebody’s season.

But to win the ACC again?

I need to see it without Mensah first.

Last year, Duke gave us one of the strangest ACC title seasons in recent memory.

This year, the Blue Devils have to prove it was more than a trivia answer.

Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.