Sunday, September 13, 2026 | 3:25 p.m. CT | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis | CBS
DraftKings (Aug. 31): MIN -1.5 | Over/under: 45.5
Opening numbers: GB -1.5 | Opening over/under: 44.5 (lines move) [S1/S3]
The setup
Minnesota added Kyler Murray to a quarterback room with J.J. McCarthy. Green Bay brings a top-four offense into a matchup with one of 2025’s best defenses.
What I’m watching
Who starts for Minnesota—and can that quarterback generate enough offense to keep Brian Flores’ defense from carrying the entire game?
Personnel snapshot
- The roster note: Kyler Murray joined Minnesota and was named the starter during the preseason.
- The game-shaping angle: These rivals have met 54 times in the regular season since 1999: Green Bay leads 30-22 with two ties. Familiarity is not a cliché here; it is two meetings almost every year. [S8]
Three quick analysis points
- The numbers clash: Green Bay ranked fourth in offensive EPA and second in passing EPA; Minnesota ranked fourth on defense and second at preventing explosive passes. [S7]
- The leverage point: Jordan Love’s PFF passer rating was 129.4 when clean but 49.2 under pressure. Minnesota’s defensive sack rate ranked third, so the pressure plan is the center of the game. [S5/S7]
- The tell-your-friends stat: Justin Jefferson has opened his career with six straight 1,000-yard seasons. One more would leave only him and Mike Evans with 1,000 in each of their first seven. [S14]
How the game is decided
Minnesota needs pressure to shrink Love’s passing edge. Green Bay needs to make the Vikings’ quarterback—not their defense—win the game.
Prediction
I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.
Sources and double-check links
- Official Week 1 research status: The NFL Communications Week 1 capsule was reviewed completely through Sept. 6, 2026; the club weekly release remains on the update watch.
- S1: NFL official 2026 Week 1 schedule
- S2: NFL.com: most anticipated Week 1 debuts
- S3: ESPN game page
- S5: PFF 2025 QB pressure splits (REG+POST; accessed Aug. 31, 2026)
- S7: nflverse 2025 play-by-play release
- S8: nflverse schedules release
- S14: NFL Football Communications: 2026 Week 1 Capsules
- S15: NFL Football Communications: weekly previews and capsules hub
Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.