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Tag: Cincinnati Bengals

  • Buccaneers vs. Bengals preview: Week 1’s highest total probably means plenty of points

    Buccaneers vs. Bengals preview: Week 1’s highest total probably means plenty of points

    Sunday, September 13, 2026 | 12:00 p.m. CT | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati | FOX
    DraftKings (Aug. 31): CIN -3.5 | Over/under: 51.5
    Opening numbers: CIN -3.5 | Opening over/under: 50.5 (lines move) [S1/S3]

    The setup

    The highest early total on the Week 1 board pairs two offenses that need their defenses to catch up. Cincinnati's answer is a major interior addition: Dexter Lawrence.

    What I’m watching

    Can Lawrence change Cincinnati's run defense and compress Baker Mayfield's pocket, or does Tampa Bay expose the same red-zone defense that finished at the bottom of the 2025 baseline?

    Personnel snapshot

    • The roster note: Dexter Lawrence debuts after Cincinnati traded the No. 10 pick for him. The Bengals reworked a defense that allowed 28.9 points per game in 2025.
    • The current hook: Cincinnati traded the No. 10 pick for Dexter Lawrence because the defense needed a centerpiece: the Bengals ranked 29th in defensive EPA per play and 29th in PFF defensive grade. [S2/S4/S7]
    • The game-shaping angle: The early total is 51.5, highest in Week 1. These defenses allowed a combined 53.1 points per game last season, so the market is not hiding the shootout expectation. [S3/S8]

    Three quick analysis points

    • The numbers clash: The biggest flashing matchup is near the goal line. Cincinnati's offense ranked No. 2 in red-zone touchdown rate; Tampa Bay's defense ranked No. 32. [S7]
    • The leverage point: Joe Burrow's PFF passer rating was 108.0 from a clean pocket and 79.3 under pressure. Tampa Bay's pass-rush grade ranked eighth, giving the Bucs a realistic way to cool the game down. [S4/S5]
    • The tell-your-friends stat: Tampa Bay has won five straight season openers, while Baker Mayfield is 3-0 on Kickoff Weekend with the Bucs and threw a touchdown pass in 16 of 17 games last season. [S10/S14]

    How the game is decided

    Red-zone defense is the separator. Field goals keep Tampa Bay in it; Cincinnati touchdowns make the total look justified.

    Prediction

    I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.

    Sources and double-check links

    Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.