Category: College Football Game Previews

Location: Doak Campbell Stadium — Tallahassee, Florida
Kickoff: Saturday, August 29 at 7 p.m. ET on The CW
DraftKings line: Florida State -31.5
Over/under: 53.5

The Setup

Few coaches enter this season under more pressure than Florida State’s Mike Norvell. This is a game the Seminoles are expected to win comfortably, but the performance will matter almost as much as the result.

Both teams imported experienced quarterbacks: Trey Hedden from Furman for New Mexico State and Ashton Daniels from Auburn for Florida State.

What I’m Watching

Can Florida State establish a complete offense instead of depending on quarterback improvisation?

Tommy Castellanos led the Seminoles with only 557 rushing yards last season. Daniels is another dangerous runner, but FSU needs its backs and offensive line to prevent the quarterback from becoming the entire ground game again.

Three Stats to Know

1. Daniels has produced 6,180 career yards.
He accumulated 4,783 passing yards and 1,397 rushing yards across Stanford and Auburn.

2. Duce Robinson is a legitimate No. 1 target.
Robinson caught 56 passes for 1,081 yards and six touchdowns. His five 120-yard games were second-most nationally.

3. Hedden’s interceptions came in clusters.
He completed 68.3% of his passes for 2,967 yards, but threw 13 interceptions. Six came in just two games.

How the Game Is Decided

New Mexico State was good at preventing explosive plays last season, so Florida State may have to stay patient. Daniels must avoid the mistakes and short fields that allow a massive underdog to linger. If FSU runs effectively and creates one-on-one opportunities for Robinson, the talent difference should eventually take over.

Prediction

Florida State should win going away. The meaningful question is whether the Seminoles can play cleanly enough to cover more than four touchdowns. My official picks will be released on my social channels.

Location: Rynearson Stadium — Ypsilanti, Michigan
Kickoff: Saturday, August 29 at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+
DraftKings line: Eastern Michigan -8.5
Over/under: 52.5

The Setup

Sacramento State’s first game as an FBS member is immediately a MAC conference game. The Hornets enter with first-year head coach Alonzo Carter and a signing class containing 44 newcomers.

Eastern Michigan offers far more offensive continuity, beginning with returning quarterback Noah Kim.

What I’m Watching

Can Sacramento State make Eastern Michigan respect the pass?

The Hornets have a proven running back in Rodney Curtis, but expected quarterback Carson Conklin struggled to push the ball downfield last season. EMU’s defensive plan should begin with loading the box and making Conklin prove he can beat single coverage.

Three Stats to Know

1. Curtis enters with 3,214 career rushing yards.
That is the second-highest total among active Division I players. He also owns 17 career 100-yard games.

2. The deep ball disappeared for Conklin.
According to the PFF charting referenced in the video, he completed none of his 14 deep attempts last season.

3. EMU finally returns its primary quarterback.
Kim started every game in 2025, making this the first time in a decade that Eastern Michigan enters a season with the same primary starting quarterback. He threw for 2,817 yards and 18 touchdowns.

How the Game Is Decided

Eastern Michigan can control the game by taking away Curtis and forcing Sacramento State’s rebuilt offense into obvious passing situations. The Hornets need to create room for Curtis without becoming completely predictable. If Conklin cannot connect downfield, EMU will be able to commit more defenders to the run.

Prediction

This will not receive much national attention, but it is a real conference game with immediate standings implications. North Dakota State will get a lot of the moving-into-FBS attention, but don’t forget the Hornets. Still, this seems like a tough opener for a team new to FBS. EMU has Kim back and continuity on offense. I don’t love -8.5, but I could see Eastern winning by 10. Full picks will be on my social channels this week.

Scott Stadium — Charlottesville, Virginia
Saturday, August 29 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
DraftKings: Virginia -5.5 | Over/Under 53.5
Coaches: Dave Doeren, NC State Year 14 | Tony Elliott, Virginia Year 5

The Setup

NC State won last year’s meeting 35-31 in Raleigh, sealing the game with an end-zone interception in the final minute. That matchup was considered a nonconference game. This relocated rematch will be played in Charlottesville and count in the ACC standings.

What I’m Watching

Can NC State protect CJ Bailey and find a replacement for the production Hollywood Smothers carried to Texas?

Bailey gives NC State legitimate quarterback continuity, but Virginia returns the more experienced defensive core. The Cavaliers also added Missouri transfer Beau Pribula, whose running ability changes the numbers a defense must account for.

Personnel Snapshot

NC State returns eight starters: five offense and three defense. Three offensive linemen—Teague Andersen, Kamen Smith and Spike Sowells Jr.—return alongside Bailey and receiver Keenan Jackson.

All three defensive returners are defensive backs: Asaad Brown Jr., Jackson Vick and Ronnie Royal III. That is useful secondary experience, but NC State does not have a returning defensive lineman or linebacker that started half of the games or more last season.

Virginia also returns eight, but its split is three offense and five defense. All three offensive returners are linemen: McKale Boley, Noah Josey and Drake Metcalf.

The Cavaliers return linemen Fisher Camac and Jason Hammond, linebacker Kam Robinson and defensive backs Ethan Minter and Donavon Platt. Virginia’s experience is concentrated exactly where it needs it against Bailey.

Three Stats to Know

• NC State has won four consecutive games against Virginia and eight straight season openers.
• The Wolfpack went 7-2 when Bailey avoided a quarterback turnover and 1-3 when he threw an interception or lost a fumble.
• Virginia allowed opponents to convert only 33.1% of third downs, the fourth-best defensive rate in the FBS.

How the Game Is Decided

NC State must stay ahead of the chains and avoid asking Bailey to repeatedly beat an experienced secondary on third-and-long. Of course, Bailey was also great on third and long last year, completing 68% of his passes on third and six or longer and throwing 4 TDs against 0 interceptions. Virginia’s path is to lean on its veteran line, use Pribula as part of the running game and make the Wolfpack replace Smothers’ production one difficult drive at a time. The home crowd also helps after the game was moved from Brazil.

Prediction

It’s hard not to love Bailey and the Wolfpack, back in place for a third year. Virginia’s schedule gives it some advantages down the road, but it felt like Tony Elliott’s bunch overachieved in 2025, as he got the most out of his roster. My early lean is to get the points on NCST.

Fargodome — Fargo, North Dakota
Saturday, August 29 | 5:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. CT | CBS Sports Network
DraftKings: North Dakota State -7 | Over/Under 46.5
Coaches: Charles Kelly, Jacksonville State Year 2 | Tim Polasek, NDSU Year 3

The Setup

North Dakota State’s first game as an FBS member comes against a Jacksonville State program that already completed the same transition. Jacksonville State leads the series 2-1, but NDSU won the most recent meeting 37-10 in the 2015 FCS national championship game.

What I’m Watching

This should be decided by which team survives its missing backfield production.

Jacksonville State no longer has Cam Cook’s 1,659 rushing yards. NDSU must replace drafted quarterback Cole Payton and receiver Bryce Lance. Both programs want to run, but both are replacing players who made that approach far more dangerous in 2025.

Personnel Snapshot

Jacksonville State returns offensive returners are quarterback Caden Creel, receiver Deondre Johnson and lineman Lucas Mrachkovskiy. Defensively, Jawaun Campbell, Walker O’Steen, Mac Sanders, Tre’Quon Fegans and Caleb Nix return.

North Dakota State returns eight: three offense and five defense. All three offensive qualifiers are linemen: Griffin Empey, Josh Magin and Nate Tastad.

The defense returns linemen Kelton McCaslin and Keenan Wilson, plus defensive backs Jaylin Crumby, Darius Givance and Donovan Woolen. That defensive continuity could be decisive against Creel’s option and quarterback-run packages.

Three Stats to Know

• Jacksonville State called runs on approximately 64% of its plays last season. NDSU was near 63% against FCS competition.
• Creel produced six games with at least 100 passing yards and 100 rushing yards.
• NDSU supplied two of the four FCS players drafted in 2026: Payton and Lance.

How the Game Is Decided

Jacksonville State needs Creel to make NDSU defend the entire field without turning the game into a series of obvious passing situations. NDSU needs its three returning linemen to stabilize a nearly brand-new backfield. Whichever team avoids negative runs and wins first down should control the pace.

Prediction

Many are going to run to the hype of North Dakota State playing its first ever FBS game, and it’s understandable. The environment in Fargo will be fun, and the atmosphere will be electric. But Jacksonville State just feels like the perfect elixir to that storm. Full predictions will be made on my social channels.

The Setup

This feels like a now-or-never season for USC. The Trojans return Jayden Maiava, Lincoln Riley and offensive coordinator Luke Huard together for a third consecutive year—something no other FBS program can say.

USC is 6-0 against San José State and has won nine consecutive season openers. The Spartans are replacing QB Walker Eget, who transferred to Duke, with former Hawai‘i quarterback Luke Weaver.

What I’m Watching

Can San José State make USC work for its points?

The Trojans can attack this defense in either direction. Waymond Jordan and King Miller give USC an established running game, while Maiava is one of the country’s most aggressive deep passers.

San José State does not return a defensive starter that started at least half of the team’s games last season.

Three Stats to Know

1. USC has rare continuity.
We’ll say it again — the Trojans are the only FBS program returning the same starting quarterback, head coach and offensive coordinator for a third straight year. USC had one of the nation’s best offenses in 2025. Can it get revved up in the first four games — against overmatched competition — before USC reaches a make or break 6-game stretch?

2. The rushing matchup heavily favors USC.
Jordan and Miller combined for 1,548 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging 6.34 yards per carry. Last season, San José State allowed 157.9 rushing yards per game and 25 rushing touchdowns.

3. USC wants to attack deep.
According to the PFF numbers from 2025, Maiava attempted 76 passes at least 20 yards downfield—the fifth-most nationally. San José State allowed 42 completions of 20-plus yards. Can USC find the timing in the deep ball early?

How the Game Is Decided

San José State has to prevent explosive plays and create turnovers. USC went 7-0 in Maiava’s qualifying games without a quarterback turnover, but only 2-4 when he threw an interception or lost a fumble. If Maiava protects the football, the Spartans have no obvious way to take away both USC’s running game and its deep passing attack.

Prediction

USC feels likely to win going away. The question is whether the Trojans can cover a number that moved from 35.5 to 38.5 points. I’ll make my official pick on my @uthinkuknowsports TikTok, Instagram, YouTube and Facebook page later this week.

Location: Aviva Stadium — Dublin, Ireland
Kickoff: Saturday, August 29 at 11 a.m. CT on ESPN
DraftKings line: TCU -7.5
Over/under: 47.5

The Setup

This is an immediate rematch of last year’s dominant TCU’s win in Chapel Hill. The Horned Frogs outgained North Carolina 542-222 and controlled first downs 29-10 in a 48-14 win, but both offenses now feature different quarterbacks and play-callers. Gone are Josh Hoover (now at Indiana) and Gio Lopez (now at Wake Forest).

For Bill Belichick and North Carolina, this is an immediate opportunity to prove the second season will not resemble the first in front of a national audience.

What I’m Watching

Can Bobby Petrino build a functional offense around Billy Edwards Jr.?

North Carolina averaged only 19.3 points and 231 yards per game last season, while Petrino’s Arkansas offenses averaged over 30 points per game. Edwards was limited to two games at Wisconsin last year, but his healthy 2024 season at Maryland included 2,881 passing yards and seven consecutive 250-yard games.

TCU counters with Harvard transfer Jaden Craig and an experienced offensive line. UNC’s best chance to disrupt that transition is edge rusher Melkart Abou Jaoude, who led the Tar Heels with 10.5 sacks last season.

Three Stats to Know

1. Who will handle travel better?
Belichick has coached numerous games outside the United States during his NFL coaching career. Will that give UNC any kind of advantage with the game being played in Dublin? Also, heavy rain impacted last year’s Kansas State-Iowa State game. Will weather play a role this year?

2. Edwards has already delivered in a major game.
He completed 39 of 50 passes for 373 yards when Maryland upset USC 29-28 in 2024. He completed just 7 passes at Wisconsin last year in very limited action, playing in the Power 4’s worst offense. Can he still move an offense like he did with the Terps two years ago?

3. UNC returns a proven pass rusher.
Abou Jaoude recorded 10.5 sacks last season, fifth-most in the FBS. TCU’s three most experienced returning offensive linemen have made 86 combined college starts.

How the Game Is Decided

North Carolina has to prevent Craig from settling comfortably into the TCU offense. If Abou Jaoude and the Tar Heels can create pressure without constant blitzing, this could become a real test for a new quarterback. If Craig remains clean and UNC still cannot sustain drives, the rematch could begin looking too much like the original.

Prediction

It’s hard to pick UNC after seeing how much better TCU was last season, but Hoover is now at Indiana and Petrino should bring some life to an offense that was like watching paint dry in 2025. I’ll make my final pick the week of the game on @uthinkuknowsports on Tiktok/Instagram/Facebook/YouTube.