Scott Stadium — Charlottesville, Virginia
Saturday, August 29 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
DraftKings: Virginia -5.5 | Over/Under 53.5
Coaches: Dave Doeren, NC State Year 14 | Tony Elliott, Virginia Year 5

The Setup

NC State won last year’s meeting 35-31 in Raleigh, sealing the game with an end-zone interception in the final minute. That matchup was considered a nonconference game. This relocated rematch will be played in Charlottesville and count in the ACC standings.

What I’m Watching

Can NC State protect CJ Bailey and find a replacement for the production Hollywood Smothers carried to Texas?

Bailey gives NC State legitimate quarterback continuity, but Virginia returns the more experienced defensive core. The Cavaliers also added Missouri transfer Beau Pribula, whose running ability changes the numbers a defense must account for.

Personnel Snapshot

NC State returns eight starters: five offense and three defense. Three offensive linemen—Teague Andersen, Kamen Smith and Spike Sowells Jr.—return alongside Bailey and receiver Keenan Jackson.

All three defensive returners are defensive backs: Asaad Brown Jr., Jackson Vick and Ronnie Royal III. That is useful secondary experience, but NC State does not have a returning defensive lineman or linebacker that started half of the games or more last season.

Virginia also returns eight, but its split is three offense and five defense. All three offensive returners are linemen: McKale Boley, Noah Josey and Drake Metcalf.

The Cavaliers return linemen Fisher Camac and Jason Hammond, linebacker Kam Robinson and defensive backs Ethan Minter and Donavon Platt. Virginia’s experience is concentrated exactly where it needs it against Bailey.

Three Stats to Know

• NC State has won four consecutive games against Virginia and eight straight season openers.
• The Wolfpack went 7-2 when Bailey avoided a quarterback turnover and 1-3 when he threw an interception or lost a fumble.
• Virginia allowed opponents to convert only 33.1% of third downs, the fourth-best defensive rate in the FBS.

How the Game Is Decided

NC State must stay ahead of the chains and avoid asking Bailey to repeatedly beat an experienced secondary on third-and-long. Of course, Bailey was also great on third and long last year, completing 68% of his passes on third and six or longer and throwing 4 TDs against 0 interceptions. Virginia’s path is to lean on its veteran line, use Pribula as part of the running game and make the Wolfpack replace Smothers’ production one difficult drive at a time. The home crowd also helps after the game was moved from Brazil.

Prediction

It’s hard not to love Bailey and the Wolfpack, back in place for a third year. Virginia’s schedule gives it some advantages down the road, but it felt like Tony Elliott’s bunch overachieved in 2025, as he got the most out of his roster. My early lean is to get the points on NCST.