Saturday, 2026-09-12 | 5:00 PM CT | Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID | USA Net
DraftKings snapshot: BOIS -7.5 | Over/under: 52.5 [S1]
What’s at stake
Memphis arrives 2-0 after winning at UNLV and then rushing for 335 yards in a 42-24 victory over Arkansas State. Boise State is 0-1, but that record needs context: the Broncos led No. 2 Oregon by 10 and were still tied in the fourth quarter before losing 34-27. This is an early test of which Group of Six contender has the more repeatable formula—Memphis’ balance or Boise State’s ability to trade punches with elite competition. [S2/S3/S4/S7]
The history is short but useful. Memphis won the only previous meeting 35-32 in 2023, and current Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen completed 11 of 14 passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns that day. Now the Tigers make their first trip to The Blue, where a Boise win would quickly change the conversation after the Oregon loss and a Memphis win would give the Tigers two quality road victories before mid-September. [S5/S6/S8/S11]
Three things to know
- Memphis’ ground game meets the part of Boise State’s defense that held up: Jaylin Carter rushed for 183 yards and four touchdowns while Manny Covey added 103 as Memphis averaged 7.0 yards per carry against Arkansas State. Boise State allowed Oregon to run for only 119 yards at 4.8 per carry, so this is strength against strength. If the Broncos can make Marcus Stokes carry the offense, his two-interception Week 1 game becomes much more relevant. [S2/S3/S9]
- Boise State needs more than Maddux Madsen: Madsen threw three touchdown passes without an interception at Oregon, but Boise State rushed for only 93 yards on 36 attempts—2.6 per carry. Memphis just held Arkansas State to 109 rushing yards at 3.8 per carry. If the Broncos cannot create a dependable run game, Memphis can focus its pressure and coverage on a quarterback who completed barely half his passes in Eugene. [S2/S3/S10]
- The explosive-pass matchup could decide it: Oregon threw for 378 yards and averaged 9.9 yards per pass against Boise State. Memphis did not throw often against Arkansas State, but its 15 attempts produced 188 yards—12.5 per pass. Boise State has to decide whether to crowd the line against Carter and Covey or protect a secondary that just allowed four Oregon receivers to gain at least 57 yards. [S2/S3]
Stat comparison
| Metric | Memphis 2026 | Boise St 2026 | Memphis 2025 rank | Boise St 2025 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.5 (No. 58*) | 27.0 (No. 77*) | No. 36 | No. 61 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.5 (No. 90*) | 34.0 (No. 104*) | No. 45 | No. 111 |
| Yards per game | 470.5 (No. 50*) | 274.0 (No. 115*) | No. 35 | No. 24 |
| Yards allowed per game | 447.0 (No. 111*) | 497.0 (No. 117*) | No. 60 | No. 39 |
| Passing yards per game | 205.5 (No. 80*) | 181.0 (No. 95*) | No. 65 | No. 51 |
| Passing yards allowed per game | 308.0 (No. 113*) | 378.0 (No. 127*) | No. 84 | No. 15 |
| Turnover margin | +1 (No. 30*) | +1 (No. 30*) | No. 23 | No. 57 |
*The 2026 ranking is based on the 131 teams who had played by Saturday night. We did not wait on the Sunday and Monday college football games to publish the majority of our previews. [S12]
Players to watch
- Memphis — Jaylin Carter: He turned 19 carries into 183 yards and four touchdowns against Arkansas State, including a 74-yard run. The Southern Miss transfer has already rushed for 280 yards in two games. [S2/S7/S9]
- Boise State — Maddux Madsen: He kept Boise State within one score of No. 2 Oregon by throwing for 181 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. He also played in the only prior Memphis meeting, completing 11 of 14 passes for 175 yards and two scores in 2023. [S3/S10/S11]
Looking for a prediction?
I make final predictions on my TikTok/YouTube/Instagram/Facebook pages @uthinkuknowsports.
Sources
- S1: ESPN Memphis-Boise State game page and DraftKings feed
- S2: ESPN Arkansas State-Memphis final box score
- S3: ESPN Boise State-Oregon final box score
- S4: Associated Press Boise State-Oregon game story
- S5: Memphis official opponent history vs. Boise State
- S6: ESPN Boise State-Memphis 2023 final box score
- S7: Memphis official 27-21 UNLV recap
- S8: Boise State official 2026 schedule announcement
- S9: Memphis official 2026 Jaylin Carter roster page
- S10: Boise State official 2026 football roster
- S11: Boise State official Maddux Madsen bio and career log
- S12: SportsDataverse/ESPN 2025 team-summary source
- S13: Memphis official 2026 football media center
- S14: Boise State official 2026 football media center
Full disclosure: I use AI tools to format my research into an article encompassing all of the information.
Leave a Reply